Meanwhile, In Iraq
It seems noteworthy that not only the government of Lebanon, but the Arab world's other democratically elected government, in Iraq, is denouncing Israel's military strikes. Folks seemingly calling for a wider war might want to think more carefully about this. A keen observer of the situation laid out a scenario to me last week in which the conflict takes on a mobius strip quality as Iran-linked militias affiliated with the Iraqi government wind up fighting against the IDF while the American military is still in Iraq fighting anti-government insurgents.
The actual situation on the ground in Iraq, meanwhile, seems to have totally collapsed. About 100 people are dying every day and now "relentless sectarian violence is forcing Iraqis to flee their homes in larger and larger numbers, with more than 1,000 families abandoning mixed areas for Shiite or Sunni strongholds in the last week alone, according to government figures released today."
Yes, given the figures I've seen recently, the consensus does seem to be saying that Iraq is now in full fledged civil war, or will be tomorrow at the latest.
Over the last couple months, over 3,000 people dead apparently, and now it looks like 3,000 PER month.
I'd say that definitely qualifies as civil war, even if the sides haven't fielded full scale battalions yet.
And with the current ME situation, we're not getting hardly any news about what's going on.
I wonder if that's part of the "bennies" Bush is thinking about with the Israeli operation - "Gee, nobody cares about Iraq anymore!"
July 20, 2006 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
As I observed in your Wingnuttery piece, I do not believe Iraq has much more than 6 months for reasons listed in Cole's post today among others. Not the least of these other reasons - The US/Israeli destruction of Lebanon (for that is surely how the Arabs See it). Even a confirmed pessimist like I am, was surprised at the massive uptick in violence. Indeed "violence' no longer quite captures the essence. This is a massive disintegration and rapid.
Operation Together Forward dead for four weeks has now been pronounced by the authorities. As Cole notes, the civil war in Kirkuk has already begun.
6 months, 12 tops...Houston we have a timetable
Voters for Peace
http://www.votersforpeace.us/
July 21, 2006 4:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
i've been saying for a while that much as bush might hope to punt the entire mess in iraq to the next president, events on the ground may not provide him that option.
another iraqi prediction i'd just as soon be wrong about....
July 21, 2006 7:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, according to reports today, the Iraqi government is seriously considering partitioning Beirut into a "left side" and a "right side" based on religious affiliation.
This is de facto proof that Iraq is now officially in a civil war.
The question now is how long will it be before BOTH sides start shooting at US troops because they feel the presence of those troops prevents them from "getting the job done" in their part of the civil war.
By the way, Ayatollah Sistani has condemned the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in the strongest terms.
July 21, 2006 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Al Dawa and the Supreme Council for an Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) were both supported by Iran durring the Iran/Iraq war, and at least AL Dawa had operational ties to Hezbollah. This makes the fact that we pegged the political order of Iraq (or whatever political order that we've managed to eek out) to these organizations very problematic.
If they percieve the Israeli invasion of Lebanon as a US action (and I don't see how they wouldn't) how does that translate to Iraq? Does it mean increased attacks on our troops from inside the Iraqi government?
I guess we'll just have to wait and see...
July 23, 2006 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink