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"But of the tree of the knowledge of good and evil you shall not eat"

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Today is my day to post, and the obvious topic is the war in Israel and Lebanon. But my heart is heavy. In nearly 60 years of existence, Israel remains a country that sees itself as a set of plucky Jews, hiding in the woods during the Holocaust, swearing that they will never be weak and hunted again. And so they have grown up convinced that they must obliterate enemies, if they are to save their existence.

I was living in the Arab-Israeli town of Nazareth the day Israel pulled out of Lebanon six years ago.

It seemed as if every family in Nazareth drove to the border that night, to reunite with family members, and just to watch the great power, Israel, retreat (as they saw it) with its tail between its legs. At every falafel shack in town, young men and old women muttered, "Lebanon made war, and Israel left. We tried to make peace, and Israel is still in the West Bank."* A few months later, the second intifida broke out.

The Israeli right swore up and down that if Israel pulled out of Lebanon, bombs would be raining down on Israel's northern cities. They claimed that Hezbollah and its supporters would take credit for driving Israel out, much as the mujahadeen took credit for destroying the Soviet Union.

And bombs did rain down on Israel. And Israel has responded with fire and awe. And on the seventh day, God rested. And let his children continue to destroy what they themselves had built.

What does a good liberal say to this? That the right was right? Well, we had better admit they had a point. Leaving in weakness can beget strength in your opponent, and encouragement for their methods. Yet Israel was losing soldiers in Lebanon, and losing all moral stature in world opinion. Moreover, the occupation was brutalizing not just the Lebanese, but Israel's own military-made up of the sons and daughters of every Israeli household. Staying in Lebanon was not a good option if Israel was to keep its soul. No, the right had a point, but they were not correct. In a fight to maintain existence, perhaps the most important thing to maintain is a country's spiritual vitality , in Kennan's words, the flame of its democratic and humane soul--a point equally true for America's war on terror.

So what should have been done? What could we, America, have done to prevent this? We could have worked like hell since the Syrian pull out to force Lebanon to oust Hezbollah and take control of their own state, providing them with international support to do so. But--oh yes--we were rather busy with a war a bit to the East...

One thing we should do now is applaud Israel's crushing of Hezbollah, which richly deserves to be crushed, but tell Israel that we will condemn the killing of civilians--out of humanity, and for Israel's own good, to prevent Lebanese public sentiment , which is now, for the first time, firmly against Hezbollah , from turning pro-Hezbollah.

Now, in bombing Lebanon's military bases, Israel has destroyed the one force with the legitimacy to move into Southern Lebanon in Hezbollah's place. And in destroying Lebanese infrastructure, they have weakened Lebanon's ability to create a strong state that could force out a terrorist force. They have ensured that an international force will eventually need to be deployed to beef up the current force there and keep the peace in Southern Lebanon, as Israel certainly can't go back there to any better results than those obtained the last time we played this game of musical chairs. Meanwhile, the Lebanese, who had been angered at Hezbullah's pulling them into this war, are now solidifying behind it.

An international force, composed largely of Europeans, trying to keep neighboring tribes from killing each other, and not wanting to be there in the first place... the last time I read that was in David Fromkin's "A Peace to End All Peace". Didn't work well the first time around, as I remember. But it seems that it will soon be the only option left, when the guns of war tire, and an uneasy, unsustainable peace returns.


*No comment in this post on the veracity of this observation. It is how the Nazarenes and West Bank Palestinians I spoke with saw their situation, with little reference to Arafat's rejection of what was likely the best offer they were likely to get, whatever their hopes had been.


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Not much to comment on here, except the assumption that even WITH the help of the US and/or the UN, "crushing Hizballah" is feasible. I submit that there is no military solution to Hizballah in Lebanon any more than there is a military solution to the Iraqi insurgency - absent nuking either nation into glass or mass genocide of the relevant Shia or Sunni or both factions.

The other point is that if you aren't sure why what is being done IS being done - time to reconsider your premises and ask, "Cui bono?"

Maybe nobody profits in reality from a given situation, but usually you can discern what somebody THINKS they're going to get from a given situation - and that will tell you why they did it.

This is interesting from Juan Cole's blog:

"The death toll late Tuesday stood at 235 people killed in Lebanon and 25 in Israeli. About half of the Israeli deaths were military personnel. Only a handful of the Lebanese deaths have been military, and only a fraction of those have been Hizbullah fighters. In fact, have even ten Hizbullah guerrillas been killed by the Israelis since this fight began? They say it is a fight with Hizbullah. But then they bomb Greek Orthodox churches and milk factories far from Shiite areas. Hmmmm.

Israeli air strikes killed 30 more civilians on Tuesday:

The Israeli attacks were mainly concentrated on the Bekaa district, as Israeli warplanes launched missiles at the towns of Zahle, Baalbek, Rachaya al-Fokhar and others. The St. Gregorius Church in Rachaya al-Fokhar suffered a direct hit, as did the Lake Qaraoun Dam and the ambulance donated by the Emirates in Dahr al-Baydar. Dozens of civilians were killed and wounded in the attacks. Over 30 civilians were killed in Israeli air strikes against Lebanon on Tuesday. Ten civilians who had taken refuge inside the Greek Orthodox Church in Rachaya al-Fokhar were wounded in an attack. Lebanese security sources said Israel had used phosphorous missiles in the attack, an internationally banned weapon.

Some people just don't like their neighbors to have nice things. The Israelis hit Lebanese privately owned factories on Tuesday, including a dairy farm! These targets had absolutely nothing to do with Hizbullah, and were not military targets. These strikes are war crimes and part of a continuing Israeli campaign to ensure that Lebanon is economically poor and weak for decades to come:

Israel switched gears in its military campaign against Lebanon Monday and Tuesday, launching a series of debilitating air strikes against privately owned factories throughout the country and dealing a devastating blow to an economy already paralyzed by a week of hits on residential areas and crucial infrastructure. The production facilities of at least five companies in key industrial sectors - including the country's largest dairy farm, Liban Lait; a paper mill; a packaging firm and a pharmaceutical plant - have been disabled or completely destroyed. Industry insiders say the losses will cripple the economy for decades to come."

It's incomprehensible how Alan Dershowitz can issue a "challenge" over at HuffPo for an "alternative" to Israel's campaign against Hibzallah firing rockets into Israel when the target list above shows that Hizballah is barely being hit.

Clearly something else is going on here than Hizballah.

I await any military expert explaining to me how hitting dairy farms in Lebanon are going to suppress Hizballah.

A thoughtful piece, but I am puzzled by the phrase "tell Israel that we will condemn the killing of civilians". Why the future tense? Why not condemn the killing right now?

Interesting article from London about the celebration of the killing of civilians. The kind of article you will never see in North America.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,173-2277717,00.html

Israel would love to be bombing Hezbollah targets but they are dispersed and on the move. Consequently, the Israelis are bombing military bases, the Beirut airport, and other targets that they can actually find. This, in turn, will turn the Lebanese population against them and play into the hands of Hezbollah. Just like Iraq. Why can't we learn? The U.S. should have been strengthening the hand of the Leganese government to deal with this problem before it exploded. The Israelis need to quit trying to win by random bombing. Every child who is killed as collateral damage will have brothers who grow up to join the extremists.

I have been wondering for some time, given the history of the region, if Israel really wants a stable, democratic government in Lebanon. Any thoughts on that?

This may be the better link.

Rachel, Having read a few of your articles I believe you to be a nice and honest person. Im comfortable saying you would in all likelihood make a very good neighbor in New York.Israel and Lebanon make terrible neighbors, this is just the latest episode. Having said that you were living in in Israel at one point I will go ahead and make the connection that you also have a Israeli passport, You can correct me if Im wrong. Regaurdless your perspective is one of a citizen of Nazareth and very biased as such. The problem with 2 passports is simple, Only half your heart will fly the American Flag, The other half is always dreaming of another flag and whats best for it. I believe one of your statements is very telling,

"One thing we should do now is applaud Israel's crushing of Hezbollah, which richly deserves to be crushed,Rachel"

Who is saying Hezbollah has been crushed, If anything they have been empowered, dispersed, and will simply regenerate and morph. Doing the simplist of math this current action is just intolerable. 2 kidnaped soldeirs = multibillion dollar damage and 500,000 homeless/displaced, not to mention the largest evacuation since WW2 which is just chilling. Let none of us forget the history of these kinds of actions, The one's that have brought us here today. None of us wish to have our children live in fear, Not in Israel, Lebanon, or New York. Israel has gone in and destroyed the place and expect the UN to now move in as the new police force to hold the ground, This will never work, never has, never will. Oh the bill for such things, Who will pay?

While I freely admit I'm a Sunni Muslim I only hold one passport, A American one. I still beleive your a nice person. Bryan Lee

This is an utterly obscene commemoration. The core of the article for those who didn't follow the link is:


The rightwingers, including Binyamin Netanyahu, the former Prime Minister, are commemorating the bombing of the King David Hotel in Jerusalem, the headquarters of British rule, that killed 92 people and helped to drive the British from Palestine.


They have erected a plaque outside the restored building, and are holding a two-day seminar with speeches and a tour of the hotel by one of the Jewish resistance fighters involved in the attack.

What is Hezbollah doing with missiles and rockets? They are not a nation. Second, since Hezbollah headquarters in located in a civilian Shiia suburb of Beirut they are inviting attacks on nearby targets. According to CNN the Christian and even the Sunni neighbors in Beirut if not untouched are largely in one piece.

Since Hezbollah has been armed by Syria and Iran Israel wants to make sure they do not get rearmed.
Thus the attacks on the ports and airport.

Most of the fighting is taking place in Southern Lebanon. Hezbollah, who started this fight and could end it quickly by pulling back from the border and returning the Israel soliders are firing on civil targets inside Israel.
Dershowitz may be an egotist but his question is a good one and you ignored it. What should Israel do about Hezbollah's use of their arsenal?

Daniel A. Greenbaum

Sorry, but Israel's standard excuse of "The civilians were hiding the terrorists so we had to kill them all" just doesn't wash anymore. This is just shifting the blame on the victims.

They said the same thing about the massacre at Deir Yassin -- those dead civilians were supposedly "Arab irregulars" dressed as civilians, don't you know. (That's IF they are willing to admit that Israel committed an atrocity in Deir Yassin - the Zionist Organization of America still denies it)

They also said the same thing when they shelled the refugee camp in Qana.

Its always the Arab's fault, never Israel. Ever.

Does anyone know, did Israel even ask the Lebanese government to intervene on behalf of their kidnapped soldiers before attacking?

Maybe Lebanon wouldn't have been able to do anything, but the point is did Israel even give them the chance?

I would certainly like to hear from Rachel, JoAnn, SelfInterest, DG, and Brad the Dad on their thoughts about this celebration.

RogerGathman
There are two problems, I think, with the notion of 'crushing Hezbollah.'

One is that it is unlikely. Israel doesn't have the force, and neither do the Christians or Sunnis in Lebanon. Rather than crushing, the goal should certainly be reconstituting Hezbollah to make it less powerful as a military enterprise.

Two is that Hezbollah does represent the 40 percent of the population that is Shiite in Lebanon. That is a larger percent than approve of President Bush in America -- it is a considerable percent, in other words. By denying the Shiites any form of political power, the Israelis and their Maronite allies legitimated Hezbollah in the 80s. That isn't a historical fact that can be annulled -- it has to be dealt with as one of the givens. Instead of seeking broad plans for eternal peace and security, perhaps Israel and its neighbors should concentrate on more short term plans. In the short term, Israel's interest is not that Hezbollah be crushed, but that it simply normalize itself in the Lebanese context.

No, it is the way of war. Excuse? If Hezbollah's leadership wishes to cowardly hide among Lebanese civilians either the Lebanese should remove them or sadly no weapon can be that precise. I do wonder, if like Jenin whether the destruction visited on the Lebanese wont' turn out to be exaggerated.

Deir Yassin did happen by the Irgun. I don't know anyone who would deny it. What relevance is it?

You general post is a bit peculiar. No one doubts that Hezbollah, obviously well armed, both has been firing missiles at Irael and has kidnapped the two soldiers and murdered 8 others. It is also true that Hezbollah has killed Israeli children.

If you are so worried about the Lebanese why aren't you advocating that Hezbollah return the soldiers, give up their weapons and pullback from the Israeli border?

Daniel A. Greenbaum

Matt Yglesias thinks Rachel concedes too much to the Israeli right.

http://yglesias.tpmcafe.com/blog/yglesias/2006/jul/20/prehistory

Rachel

Fairly good points but there are two issues I would like to address.

The first is in regard to your assertion that Israel "is losing all moral stature in world opinion."

Is that true?

If the United States, Britain, France, and Germany all condone their offensive, have they truly lost all moral support?

Second, you raise the point that the U.S. could have helped avert the current situation by assisting the Lebanese government by rooting out Hezbollah.

Why is this the job of the United States? You argue that we did not help Lebanon because we were occupied in Iraq, yet if President Bush had botherd to send any military forces to Lebanon for just such a mission he would have certainly been assaulted by the Democrats for sticking his hands into yet another Middle East problem.

My point is that perhaps you are right that Lebanon should have received help in weeding out Hezbollah. But it should have been a multilateral effort, not a unilateral United States enterprise.

Indeed, if the world community expects that the U.S. should be the one to use its forces to eradicate Hezbollah from Lebanon, does then the U.S. not have a legitimate claim at taking a bigger hand in the region (Iraq)?

Wouldn't we all.

Facts that are openly discussed in Israel can't be absorbed by American cheerleaders because their heads would explode.

Israelis are quite well-informed about their nation's history. Americans know nothing about U.S. history, and even less about Israel's!

(And if you think "nothing" is harsh, look at this way: if you added up the truths that Americans know about history, and subtracted the falsehoods they believe, I'd be surprised if the number was positive.)


None of these rhetorical questions are worthy of being discussed outside of the overall issues.

This is the Zionist (and others) method of debate - ask a bunch of questions whose phrasing predetermines the only acceptable answers.

I don't play that game.

The bottom line is that Israel is committing collective punishment on the civilians of a country that, for various reasons, are unable to control an armed guerrilla movement in their country.

And that is a war crime under international law.

It's a war crime when the US does it in Iraq.

It's a war crime when Israel does it in Lebanon.

Period.

The solutions to all of these questions lie outside the employment of military force in the narrow instance.

And this what Zionists are intellectually dishonest in ignoring.


The intellectual dishonesty of these questions is now beyond dispute.

Israel is committing war crimes in Lebanon.

There is no need for further discussion comparing these actions to any other historical events. They stand condemned on their own results: three hundred dead civilians, thousands injured, half a million displaced, two billion dollars in damages (so far, more to come).

Deliberate attacks on Lebanese churches belonging to Christians. Deliberate attacks on hospitals.

Attributing this to "war" is not only disingenuous, it is openly supporting and excusing war crimes.

That there were NUMEROUS alternatives to this course of action is so obvious that Dershowitz's "challenge" is obviously an intellectually dishonest rhetorical device exactly the same as being used here.


Even as a Transhumanist and once wannabe terrorist myself, this is amazing stuff.

I can only reiterate that the intellectual dishonesty of the Zionists is truly mind staggering.

It's not so much that they're taking credit for what is today considered a terrorist act - it's that they're taking credit for a terrorist act TODAY, despite all the rhetoric about Islamic terrorism and the like and how much better the Israelis are and how "restrained" they are in comparison to those vicious Islamic terrorists.

The hypocrisy is just unbelievable.

You really are forced to being reduced to making statements about how such people are just utter scumbags.

There's nothing else you can say that matches their actions.

"Why can't we learn?"

See, your error is in assuming they WANT to "learn".

That's not their intent.

Their intent is precisely what you say - to MAGNIFY the threat of Hizballah in the future, so they can ensure that the scam of being the "defenders" of the Israelis is never questioned. They KNOW that Hizballah will never be a threat to Israel, and more importantly, they know that Hizballah will never be a threat to the political power of the Zionists in Israel.

It's like Chancellor Sutler in the movie "V for Vendetta:"

"I want EVERYONE to remember WHY THEY NEED US!"

It's merely the Zionist version of the standard statist justification.

Of course, they happen to be wrong - and as soon as some Arab terrorist figures out how to steal an Israeli nuke and set it off, they're going to find out how wrong.

Unfortunately, those Israelis who believed the Zionists are also going to find out how wrong their Zionist leaders were.

From a Transhumanist viewpoint, however, this is called "nature's way of eliminating the stupid."

It's probably going to happen in Washington, D.C., at some point, too - just to reassure everybody that I don't think this is purely a "Jewish" problem.


Misrated 1 by one user.

I see the Zionists are misusing the rating system again.

Obviously they see the poster as accusing Rachel of "dual loyalties." While that might be incorrect or even inappropriate, the post in general is expressing what appears to be an honest opinion.


I think the more telling point is that nobody but you has bothered to ask.

I hasten to add that you are correct to ask.

However, in general, I think the answer would be no, and even if they did, the Lebanese government is not in a position to move against Hizballah, due to the risk of restarting the Lebanese civil war.

So I suspect the Israelis wouldn't have bothered to ask, even if they didn't have their own agenda for starting this war. It really wouldn't have done the Israelis any good and might just have tipped off the Lebanese and/or Hizballah that a major attack was in the offing.


Well, I think we can split hairs here a little.

While the G8 came down on Hizballah as being the problem, the side statements from many of the European and other world countries clearly condemn Israel for a disproportionate response.

So, yes, I'd say the US and Israel have lost what little "moral credibility" they had left - if any. I never talk about that crap, as you know, so it's irrelevant to me.

And nobody else on the world state scene cares about it either, except as a hypocritical talking point, except the liberals, that's pretty clear. (And I'm not sure how many liberals care about it except as a hypocritical talking point, either.)

I agree that the US per se had no motivation in getting rid of Hizballah, and given the last disastrous effort of the US in Lebanon, clearly had no stomach for it.

Besides, Bush and the neocons have every interest in letting Israel do what it wants in the ME, so intervening to resolve a problem BEFORE Israel gets what it wants obviously isn't on their agenda. Especially since letting Israel get what it wants supports THEIR agenda, even if it is not identical with it.

T.H.

Perhaps it was a bit presumptuous of me to imply that Europe condones the Israeli offensive, yet other than Vladimir Putin not one European leader has has shown a hell of a lot more outrage than has Bush; which is hardly any at all. I'm not trying to insinuate that Britain, Germany, and France are "on board" with the current ME endeavors but SOMETHING seems to be placating them...


I don't know if they're being "placated" or just can't see what the hell they COULD do given the situation.

Putin of course is more or less in the same boat. Even Russia seems to be willing to talk Iran sanctions (knowing of course that they don't mean anything in the end).

At least Putin demonstrated his political grasp by stating that Israel and the US obviously have larger objectives here than just getting some soldiers back.

The only thing Putin can do is maneuver behind the scenes as he has been doing to thwart the desired attack on Iran. But with the Israeli escalation, he may have been outmaneuvered, and probably hasn't figured out any way to keep the situation from boiling over - which is exactly why Israel did this, of course.

There really isn't anything anyone can do at this point to stop Israel and the US from pushing things into a full-scale ME war with Syria and Iran. Whether that is the immediate intent is not clear, but I've come to the conclusion that is definitely IS the ultimate intent.

I believe the neocons and the Zionists intend to reduce every single Arab state in the Middle East to a nonfunctional status, producing a massive terrorism "enemy" that allows them to literally reduce their justifications for their actions and their political authority to the notion that everybody in the world - or at least the ME - is "anti-Semitic" and "anti-American."

When you look at the concept of "New Anti-Semitism", as I examine in the new rules thread, it's clear that the Zionists are seeking a "get out of jail free card" in their justifications for their actions. Once they can state that ANYBODY criticizing their actions is AUTOMATICALLY "anti-Semitic", they can apply that to anybody else in the world - Chinese, Venezuelans, whoever. It's like tarring Chavez a "leftist", with the implication that he's a "Communist". Now you can justify supporting a coup or something.

It's the classic state con, as Chancellor Sutler stated:

"I want EVERYONE to remember WHY THEY NEED US!"

As long as the terrorism groups don't actually have the ability to engage in STATE levels of violence, so that they cannot actually threaten the EXISTENCE of Israel or the US, then they serve as the "loyal opposition" justifying every action of the state against them and against the state's own citizens.

Meanwhile, your banks and the military-industrial complex make money by sucking the taxpayer dry and oil profits shoot through the roof.

In other words, we're coming down, at least in the ME, to the bare essentials of statism: power, greed and lies.

The problem is that these terrorist groups will eventually figure out how to nuke Tel Aviv and Washington, D.C.

Of course, the people behind the politicians don't live in those cities, so maybe they don't care either.

So the game goes on.

I was kind of wondering about the 1 myself. Its perfectly fine as Ive been under attack for about every oppinion that I have bothered to type out in the last few weeks.

"Dual Loyalties" is just a reality check, Imagine the kind of accusations I recieve as a American Muslim concerning my loyalty and I only have one passport. How can one not have dual loyalties if one has family in Lebanon and dual citizenship or if one has family in Israel and dual citizenship. There is no difference in such matters. I have very close friends that are Lebanese and Israeli, I don't fault either for where they were born or loving their families, that's reality too.

Good point, and I agree. In a long, late-night written post (remind me never again to take on Israel at 11:30 on a worknight) I wasn't clear on that.

Definitely--the multilateral community--NATO, or the UN--should have provided Lebanon with support in rooting out Hezbollah during the year long interlude between the current war, and the loosening of the Syrian grip. Lebanon's military has just three helicopters. Three. Against a terrorist group in their south which has not just local population support, but Iranian and Syrian military support.

America should have acted only as part of that coalition--both because America can be a fairly toxic "helper" in the Middle East, due to our own credibility problems, and because this really was in the interests of many states, not just our own.

Director, Truman National Security Project
www.trumanproject.org

It's good to meet you, Bryan. I am a Jewish Alaskan who was educated from K-12 at a Catholic school. And besides Nazareth, I have also lived in Russia during the winter of 1992 and the summer of 1993, lived in India, spent a summer in Kuwait, and a few years in England--but I don't have five passports! I am an American, through and through (though I do, often, claim Alaskan identity first!), who believes the best way to understand the world is to spend time--often a lot of time--in it.

I lived in Nazareth during the summer of 2000 to work for an Arab-Israeli human rights group and an Arab domestic violence organization, because I wanted to understand Israel from the perspective of the Arab-Israelis. I had already spent the summer of 1998 living in Jerusalem, and felt I had a handle on how Jewish Israelis saw their country. My time in Eastern Europe, Russia, Kuwait, India, and Nepal has been similarly motivated. I like to live in countries for a few months at the least, and more if possible, because a tourist-eye view is fairly useless for understanding.

If Americans who care about the world cannot live in other countries without being threatened with dual loyalties, then our state of knowledge will be woeful, indeed.

Director, Truman National Security Project
www.trumanproject.org

My college roomate was a Burmese-British girl. Her grandfather was a British officer in Palestine atationed at the King George hotel, their headquarters. His Jewish barber, a member of the Irgun, tipped him off to the terrorist attack on the King George Hotel, and told him to leave work that day. He did. Hence, my college roomate, best friend, and cat sitter, is with us now.

Terrorism, in other words, can get pretty darn personal.

Terrorism, whoever does it, and for whatever reason, is wrong. It is wrong the way torture is wrong. At all times, in all places, and for all people. Terrorism does at times accomplish its aims--Hezbollah did get Israel to leave Lebanon, just as the terrorist attacks on the British were a significant factor in their leaving Israel. It's effectiveness as a political tool is one of the reasons we must work particularly hard to condemn it, in any form, when committed by any group of extremists.

Director, Truman National Security Project
www.trumanproject.org

 The battle raging in the Levant has fixed the attention of the world's eight most powerful leaders, each of whom foolishly thinks that the Arab-Israeli conflict is solely about Israel's security, and willfully ignores the fact that it fuels the much more dangerous bin Laden-led war against America and the West

 

http://www.antiwar.com/scheuer/?articleid=9369" target="_blank">Doing Bin Laden's Work for Him

http://www.antiwar.com/scheuer/?articleid=9369" target="_blank">Michael Scheuer

Neither Silent Nor Silenced

Voters for Peace http://www.votersforpeace.us/

Folks who pine for the "lost opportunities" for "rooting out Hezbollah", where were you when Israel left Lebanon or at any time thereafter???

I suspect some of you have forgotten. There never was a time when Hezbollah could have been "rooted out" and I am here to tell you, that time is not now either.

You see, Hezbollah would be the pre-eminent democratic force in Lebanon but for the fact that the Lebanese Constitution imposes a system of representation that is not truly representative.

More importantly, I fear some forget what Juliette only alludes to - that Israel was sent packing. Hezbollah, Israel's creation, sent Israel packing. I fear too that some have not forgotten because they have never learned in the first place, the dynamic of Fourth Generatin Warfare. Israel sure has and they have 60 years of failure to back that up.

The "debate" over international forces and cease-fires even as Israel creates legions of new and radicalized enemies is as quaint as it is blackly comical. Who are you going to negotiate this with? Lebanon whose arny even now is committed to repel any Israeli invasion?  With Syria? With Iran?

And who do you propose to put into this internatinal force???

 

No, the feckless international community and their policy elites will be left talking either to themselves or to Hezbollah and Syria.  But in the meatime I suggest you take this opportunity to refresh your recollections and learn a bit about Fourth Generation warfare, the shape of conflict in the years ahead, which has, while you were cogitating and contemplating your navels, just taken a quantum leap forward

Neither Silent Nor Silenced Voters for Peace http://www.votersforpeace.us/

Agree 100%. That was why I was so angry at the hitting of the Lebanese military bases--and, of course, why minimizing civilian casualties is not only humane and the right thing to do, but essential for effective counterterrorism.

On Israel's leaders' thoughts--those, I cannot divine.

Director, Truman National Security Project
www.trumanproject.org

Thanks to both CommonDreamer and Transhuman. Right now, I am really looking for information.

It was my understanding that Israel gave Lebanon an ultimatum that unless [a condition] were met, the Lebanese electrical power grid would be bombed.

By [a condition], I don't know if it was ousting/disarming Hezbollah, or getting back prisoners. Does anyone have a source for exactly who said what to whom?

The idea of conditional ultimatums is not new in international relations. Two such ultimatums were important in the run-up to Pearl Harbor. I can't quote the exact language, but the 1940 embargo on metal export to Japan was contingent on their freezing operations in then-Indochina, and the 1941 embargo on oil was conditional on the Japanese not expanding their hold.

While these were threats (well, promises) of economic retaliation, it appears the US did, through intermediaries, convey a conditional ultimatum of war to the Taliban unless they surrendered al-Qaeda.

Does anyone have the specifics here?

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

I don't think you can root out Hezbollah. It has too much popular support. I think instead, you need to settle all the issues outstanding between Israel and its various Arab neighbors and then start focusing on building stable, economically viable Arab states around Israel. All these military solutions do nothing but keep hatred alive and the various conflicts festering. What we need is an international effort to create a Palestinian state, establish permanent borders between Israel, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine, and introduce some kind of Marshall Plan for the Levant. Most important, this international effort should begin immediately and come to a conclusion within a year or so. Too much time has been wasted already.

Thanx Rachel, I never doubted for a minute you were nice and your note is now evidence. I plan to get back to the dual nationality thing later in a article, I'm sorry if it appeared I directed it at you alone. Travel is a good thing.


Good post, nice to see you responding directly to commenters as well.

I am a VERY provincial American, having never been outside the country except for my tour in Vietnam.

And I intend to keep it that way. Besides, being an ex-felon, most countries wouldn't let me visit even if I could afford to.

But I value the insights of those who travel and especially live in other countries or who have connections in other countries, as Berkowitz does.

It reminds me of one of my favorite actresses, Britisher Stephanie Beacham, previously in the evening soap opera, "The Colby's" back in the '80's.

Some years back, I think in the '70's or early '80's, she traveled extensively and alone (made all the more interesting by the fact that she is 70% deaf!) into countries like Pakistan. She warned people on her return then about the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in the countries of Central Asia and the ME and the Indian subcontinent.


Speaking of conditional threats, five months or so before the Hizballah kidnapping, I understand Nasrallah explicitly stated that if Israel did not release Lebanese prisoners held by Israel that he would be "forced" to kidnap Israeli soldiers and arrange a swap.

So Israel knew this was coming for at least five months.


I think it's likely that no amount of UN or US support - even if forthcoming, which is highly unlikely given the commitments elsewhere in Iraq and Afghanistan and the Balkans - would have succeeded to "rooting out" Hizballah.

And the same applies today. See my posts elsewhere describing the relative state of Hizballah's capabilities vs the Lebanese and any likely UN peace keeping force.

I agree that physical US presence would be a disaster in such an effort.

Given that the Lebanese government appears to be shifting to allowing the Lebanese Army to actually resist the Israeli invasion, possibly in direct support of Hizballah, given that half the Lebanese Army is Shia, I'd say Rice's notion of an international force is doomed and Israel just lost the war as Hizballah's forces are likely to swell now to an even greater and more effective insurgency.

T.H.

People here discuss the possible dire consequences of American actions in Iraq. Yet I would argue Israel has just put itself into a hell of a lot worse spot.

Even in the age of globalization the U.S. still has the luxury of the Monroe Doctrine; it could be argued that Israel has the exact opposite luxury. Not only do they not have posession of their own hemisphere, they are surrounded on every side by enemies.

It's possible that Israel's existence began with and will end with the West's use of oil.

Israel would love to be bombing Hezbollah targets but they are dispersed and on the move. Consequently, the Israelis are bombing military bases, the Beirut airport, and other targets that they can actually find.

Clay, you make it sound like the strikes on these targets are just an act of frustration on the part of the Israel and its military, or cases of pilots choosing secondary targets because they can't find their primary targets.

I see no evidence that that is true. The sheer number and diversity of those targets, and the deliberateness with which they eappear to have been selected, suggests that Israel has a clear war plan and is executing it.

I'm not sure I understand how Hizbollah could have been rooted out by anyone, let alone the Lebanese government. In addition to being a military organization, Hizbollah is a social organization and network that represents most of the very large Shiite community in Lebanon. It also runs for political office and is a growing part of the national Lebanese government. Note that it doesn't run through a front party, but is itself a political party. For Lebanese to root out Hizbollah, it would first be necessary to gather the political will to declare that party illegal, and expel them from the government, and then take action against Hizbollah's military arm. The latter would certainly would require a full-scale civil war or uncertain outcome. How realistic is it to think that the rest of the Lebanese people are interested in embarking on such a war? After all, part of the political motivation for getting the Syrians to leave was the argument that their troops were no longer needed in Lebanon to maintain the peace.

I think Israel is demonstrating a consistent philosophical position with respect to Hamas and Hizbollah. They refuse to grant any legitimacy to these militant groups based on their participation in democratic political processes. To the extent that some community permits that participation, and allows those organizations to represent them, in whole or in part, through legitmate democratic means, to the same extent that entire political community is collectively responsible for the actions of the militant group, and will suffer accordingly.

That's a harsh message, but I think Israel's actions in first Gaza, and now Lebanon, suggest that is precisely the message they intend to send. Only some of the targets bombed in recent days can be seen as having tactical significance is preparing for the military assault on Hizbollah. Others appear to have mainly psychological value, and their destruction is a way of communicating with the Lebanese government and population.

Unfortunately, I don't have the resources to be doing decent open source intelligence here. There is good commercial satellite imagery around, but it's expensive.

The information should exist to tell what sorts of weapons are being used on what targets, to decide whether they are primary or not. For example, there have been weapons specifically designed to put runways out of action, such as the French Durandal or the British JP-233. I don't know if Israel uses either of these. The US doesn't have a specific anti-runway weapon, but there are various fuzing options and the choice between blast and penetrator bombs which would give an idea what type of target was being selected -- you can't reset these things in the air.

We are getting into a set of technologies where it would be possible to have an open and independent intelligence analytical function. The MSM haven't been doing well -- in the last couple of days, I may have seen twenty photos on CNN captioned "tanks moving into Lebanon". Unfortunately, only one or two were tanks; the rest were self-propelled artillery, armored personnel carriers, and other specialized vehicles. When CNN doesn't bother checking what the average soldier could recognize in a glance--and their lives may depend on such recognition in a glance--credibility drops.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*


Rachel, I tried to send you a private message but it somehow failed. While you said "I dont have five passports" you did not say that you did not have two. I believe its a logical question concering such things. I will just ask, "Do you hold a Israeli passport?" another question is "Do you have family in Israel?". I have friends from Israel, I am very protective of peoples rights to be free to practice their religion and I support you 100% in that. I believe you would find me one of your strongest defenders if anyone ever went negative on you for that,"Being Jewish."

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