10 comments on the current crisis in the Middle East
Comments on why the G8 declaration is some kind of step in the right direction but lacks implementation muscle; what next on the Lebanese and Palestinian fronts; how Israeli diplomacy was characteristically asleep on the job in failing to promote a new deal for southern Lebanon since the Hariri assassination and Syrian withdrawal; how the US is failing not only to intervene in preventing further civilian losses and wider escalation but has also avoided any peace initiatives for 5 ½ years and after 5 ½ years of not visiting me in Israel I am beginning to wonder if President Bush is really my friend; why unilateralism must be buried and any ceasefire or de-escalation can only hold water if it is immediately followed-up by kick-starting a political process of negotiations in the region, that must address the core issue of the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It’s a long post, but hey, it’s a messy situation.
1. G8 – Imperial grandeur, diplomatic modesty: The coincidence (or not) of the world’s 8 most powerful industrial nations convening just as the Middle East went off the deep end did not produce a ‘must act now’ urgency to end the crisis, it did though produce a fairly thoughtful and useful statement on the way forward, that is the very transparent upshot of a compromise between ‘you know who’ and everyone else. The grand trappings of Russia’s former imperial capital of St. Petersburg were not matched by any grand diplomacy.
Israelis have been informed by their ever-reliable media that the G8 statement is an unequivocal and ringing endorsement of all Israeli positions (“the world; ‘we are right!’” screamed one newspaper headline, “the statement might have been written by Olmert” suggested a TV news commentator), which is a shame, as the statement itself (how many of them actually read it?) is far more nuanced – read it here. The gaping chasm is its failure to demand an immediate, unconditional cessation of hostilities – the agreed language being “create the conditions” for this to happen, but it does begin by stating that “the root cause of the problem is the absence of a comprehensive peace”, it distinguishes between different elements in Hamas (a first), rejects unilateralism and understands the need for political engagement and negotiations. It’s a starting point – but where’s the muscle?
Oh, and anyone surprised at the absence of muscle to end the bloodshed might ask a Darfurian just how bad things can get before the world, well actually, still fails to act decisively. And if anyone is still short on reasons to end the conflict in the Middle East, how about this one – rather than discussing follow-up to the last “Make Poverty History” G8 – programs to combat HIV AIDS, infectious diseases and invest in education – what were they, and we, talking about …. you guessed it.
When there was a serious border bust-up in 1996 it ended with a ‘Ceasefire Understanding’ (read it here) that was externally guaranteed and monitored. This time there may be a need and possibility to replace the beleaguered and discredited UN UNIFIL forces with a more robust international presence (as called for by Annan and Blair ) and the expending of greater diplomatic energy and creativity on solutions for Lebanon that move towards meeting the terms of UNSCR 1559 (click here), but Lebanese internal politics will remain devilishly complicated.
Oh, and then there’s the minor irritation of the Iranian and Syrian roles. The absence of a serious and comprehensive international dialogue with Iran and Syria, to which the US would be a party, will continue to perhaps fatally handicap the prospects for real positive results in Lebanon. Akiva Eldar in Haaretz has called for a Grand Bargain in this op-ed piece, which includes a realization of the broad Israeli-Arab normalization envisaged in the Saudi Initiative ( read it here).
3. The curious similarity between the Israeli Foreign Ministry and the Italian world cup soccer team, and one crucial difference;
Defense, defense, defense, that’s the similarity, but while it served Italy’s footballers, Israel’s diplomats (or to be fair, their elected bosses) deserve a red card for failing to devise a diplomatic offensive that could have encouraged a new reality in Southern Lebanon. Israeli diplomacy has been desperately bereft of initiative for too many years, that always seem to be the exclusive redoubt of the military, with foreign policy relegated to a preventive holding position – avoid the international community taking any initiative, dissuade and accuse of ulterior motives, convince everyone there is no partner or not to talk to an elected Government, and cede no inch on the route of the separation barrier. The last years – since the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon in May 2000 and especially after the Hariri killing and Syrian withdrawal – have been a gargantuan missed opportunity for Israeli diplomacy. Why did Israel not initiate a public overture – offering Lebanese prisoners in return for certain steps in the South for instance, or make this a priority talking point with the US or international community? Because we were too busy discrediting the Palestinians and legitimizing unilateralism. Ultimately the Hizbullah presence will require a political solution, the military campaign is at best a partial palliative, at worst a fillip to extremists throughout the region.
.
4. The Risk and Costs of Inaction: The lack of urgency on the part of the US and international community to push an immediate de-escalation and ceasefire looks inhumane in the face of the civilian casualties, appalling destruction (and resultant reconstruction price tag) and pervasive communal anxiety on both sides of the border. But it also contains an element of political risk. A wider regional conflagration is not the game plan of any of the protagonists right now, messages have even been exchanged between Jerusalem and Damascus to that effect, but when a high tech and intensity shooting match is in progress, unpredicted and unintended things may happen – and that is a real danger in letting this continue. Will the relatively limited theatre of operations be maintained if, perish the thought, a high casualty or high value target is struck in Israel, or an IDF missile goes astray in a Syrian direction? Some appear sufficiently concerned to have disturbed their summer holiday plans – EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana is in the region as is the UN Under-Secretary General Nambiar and his mission on behalf of Annan, other will surely follow. Secretary of State Rice is belatedly reported to have been spotted checking flight schedules. And President Bush? Well in 5½ years in office he has not once visited Israel – when my so-called best friends don’t pay a call in 5 ½ years I begin to get suspicious.
5. Failing to stop war, failing to make peace;
The diplomatic and in particular US aversion to preventing military escalation has been preceded by a spectacular absence from the peace-seeking arena . This is most troubling when one considers that in the region the principal actors have perhaps never been closer – Israel set the precedent of evacuating settlements and openly recognizes that more in the West Bank will follow, President Abbas has consistently expressed his belief in a negotiated compromise, the Hamas leadership have laid heavy hints of their acceptance of a 2 state solution and the publics on both sides overwhelmingly support realistic negotiating positions. The US Administration has at no stage tried to forge these ingredients in to a working peace initiative. At this juncture the people of the region may be unable to do it alone, but peace may be attainable with external engagement – can the Administration finally pick up the gauntlet?
Any eventual ceasefire and de-escalation must be seized as an opportunity to move towards the renewal of a political peace process. By linking any ceasefire to a political track both may be given the necessary oxygen to succeed. The vacuum created by no political horizon or international engagement are two of the key factors that led to the latest political crisis. The best commentary on all this has come from Nicholas Kristof in the New York Times ( click to read).
6. Root Causes: and this brings us to the core of it all …. many in the neo-con camp are talking about root causes right now, the evil and unshakable hostility of the Iranian and Syrian regimes to Israel, the product of bad systems and regimes populated by bad people with bad ideologies. That may be so, but why the (accurate) assumption on their part that turning the vitriol against Israel may win widespread sympathy and admiration in the Muslim world and beyond and be difficult for others in that region to staunchly oppose? Why the resentment, anger and ease of mass mobilization? Yes, for some the answer is Israel’s Jewish character, but for many many others, none fanatics, it’s a one word answer – Palestine. The Palestinian cause, the injustice and hypocrisy of the US and West is a genuine grievance for millions worldwide, for whom a particular policy not a nation or a religion are the problem. Others abuse and use that – and will continue to do so, with effect, until the conflict is resolved. If post-crisis there is no return to dealing with the core issues on the Israeli-Palestinian front and moves towards negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict, then everyone should recognize that we are simply beginning the countdown to the next escalation. Two articles that really hit the nail on this are David Clark, former UK Labor party special policy advisor in the Guardian and Henry Siegman from the Council of Foreign Relations in the Observer.
This realization and policies that address it need to be built in to any ceasefire and morning after scenarios.
7. Israel-Palestine, what next? The necessity of linking any ceasefire package to an effort to kick-start an Israeli-Palestinian political process has already been explained.
The ingredients of the package are well known, the exact chronology and details are difficult to calibrate, these include; the release of the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, an end to Qassam rocket shellings and suspension of all hostile acts against Israel from PA territories, end the Gaza incursion and IDF military initiatives against Palestinians, including assassinations, release of the PA Cabinet and PLC members and a prisoner release (women, children, pre-Oslo prisoners) as previously committed too. Such a package would create an opportunity to launch a political process, including encouraging the Palestinians to conclude the National Understanding (ie prisoners document) whereby President Abbas could lead negotiations with Israel in the name of a broader Palestinian coalition and whereby a ceasefire could be used to test the intentions of Hamas. Initial talks should be open-ended and exploratory in nature with official Israeli and Palestinian representatives discussing parameters for renewing political negotiations, supported and preferably overseen by the Quartet.
8. Bury Unilateralism; Israel withdrew from the Sinai in the context of a negotiated peace agreement with Egypt and from parts of the Arava in a negotiated peace treaty with Jordan, results: quiet borders, no military exchanges since, solid if cool peace. Israel withdrew from South Lebanon and Gaza unilaterally without agreements ….. enough said.
After the latest events avoidance of negotiations with the Palestinians and pursuit of a unilateral convergence on the West Bank, or re-alignment, or disengagement or whatever new name is found is a joke in poor taste.
The unilateral paradigm has ill-served the US and Israel, bury it.
9. An Historical note on Prisoner Releases; On the 9th of November 2003 the then Israeli Cabinet voted on the arrangements for a prisoner swap between Israel and the Hizbollah, which included the return of one civilian and the bodies of 3 murdered soldiers to Israel in exchange for over 450 Lebanese and Palestinian prisoners, including senior Hizbollah clerics. In addition to then PM Sharon, the list of Ministers who voted in favor of the prisoner exchange with Hizbollah includes; Ehud Olmert, Benjamin Netanyahu, Shaul Mofaz and Meir Shetreet. No comment.
10. And finally …. Get her on the next plane over;
Now that the Secretary of State has plans to visit the region it might encourage a ratcheting up of hostilities in the interval until she arrives, so no time to waste, log on to expedia.com or travelocity.com, or be patriotic and make it elal.co.il and book a ticket to the region in the name of one Ms. Condoleeza Rice, next departure. Secretary Rice successfully brokered a mini-deal on local economic, border crossing and Palestinian movement arrangements on November 15, 2005, post-Gaza withdrawal – but there was no follow-up and nothing happened. The task today is far more demanding and urgent.
The agenda for the visit might be: no return flight home until ceasefire achieved; do not flinch at talking directly or if needed via envoys to the Syrians; if an interim robust international military deployment is necessary and there are trusted nations willing to deploy then use this option and be sure to have monitors overseeing the ceasefire provisions; post-ceasefire encourage via reliable 3rd parties an urgent process for negotiating the terms of the release of the Israeli soldiers (unfortunately at this stage this is the only option); do not depart until you have agreement on all sides for renewing a political dialogue and process, especially on the Israeli- Palestinian front and continue to personally manage that process. Awaiting your arrival.













The US has not intervened and attempted to make peace, becasue that is no longer in the best interest of America. The USA has decided that the 60 year experimen of a 'jewish only" Israel state in the ME is a failure. America is cutting her losses by allowing Israel to wage a full scale war and then we will eventually intercede once Iran is drawn into the war. American will then 'win' WWIII in the ME by completely controlling the region.
America already tried that for 5 decades and it has not worked. America has changed strategy. America's goal now is complete control. The rest of the world is going to be willing to support this given all the Muslim terrorism globally. Muslims are making war everywhere in Spain, England, Germany, France. The religious fanaticism must be halted and it will be by completely re-structuring the ME around Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
This is military escalation and lack of dipolmatic intervention is deliberate and all a build up for WWIII in the ME. Geopolitical control is America's goal. We have nothing to gain by going in too soon, 50 years of diplomacy has failed to create peace.
America plans to seize control of the ME and control the oil with the help of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
July 18, 2006 9:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
The fact is that the recent conflict is not about any "kidnapped" soldiers or Israel's "right to exist" -- this is about Israel preparing the ground for launching an attack on Iran, and launching a war that will inevitably suck in the US of A.
SOURCE: Israel Readies for Iran Showdown by Attacking Lebanon http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=33983July 18, 2006 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is military escalation and lack of dipolmatic intervention is deliberate and all a build up for WWIII in the ME. Geopolitical control is America's goal .
Attractively simple and if my mother had wheels she'd be a Mack truck. Heaven only knows what strategies lurk in the mind of Bush but countries don't have strategies , they have leaders and ours will change in two years , praise be. Who knows what that president will want.
BTW does whiterose refer to the german students who were executed for their war time oppositin to Hitler ?
July 18, 2006 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
America's strategy has been consistent in the Middle East for 5 decades and has not changed under any administration...AIPAC made sure of that. American Presidents are not the ones setting ME foreign policy.
No. A white rose is the symbolizes friendship.
July 18, 2006 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, as far as America's quest for world domination goes, I'm afraid we're all going to have to wait a while.
Iraq is a basket case, and America's objectives, honest and dishonest, are failing spectacularly. Afghanistan is drifting towards the Taliban. Pakistan is largely a failed state with nuclear weapons sponsoring terrorism. The Saudi Arabian and Egyptian regimes are hanging by a thread.
I suspect that the realilty is that America will not be controlling the oil, will not be controlling the middle east, and is well on the way to being a has been.
July 18, 2006 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
These are very constructive comments Daniel. Just two initial observations.
You say:
A wider regional conflagration is not the game plan of any of the protagonists right now, messages have even been exchanged between Jerusalem and Damascus to that effect, but when a high tech and intensity shooting match is in progress, unpredicted and unintended things may happen – and that is a real danger in letting this continue.
Whether or not anyone seeks a "conflagration", I don't think you should exclude the hypotheis that powerful decision-makers in the US, or Israel, or both have concluded that an escalating chain reaction of crisis and conflict in the Middle East, one that eventually sweeps up Iran and Syria, and in the end redraws the maps and alignments in the region, is indeed the best path toward the achievement of their overall strategic goals - diplomatic communiques notwithstanding.
You might find this unrealistic from an Israeli standpoint, since Israelis would actually face the military brunt of such an expanded conflcit. But chickenhawk American neocons are more or less safely ensconced behind their editorial desks in New York and Washington, on the other side of a wide ocean, and these are the kinds of games they play.
As for why Bush hasn't visited you, it's simple. He's a coward. Just look at his quickie, covert, Speedy Gonzalez visits to Iraq. As Rabin's death shows, Israel can't even guarantee the security of its own chief executive. There's no way Bush is going to put himself at the same sort of risk. They can't invent enough helmets and flak jackets for him.
July 18, 2006 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mr. Levy:
Many thanks for the comprehensive comments and links to key documents and commentary.
If I book Ms. Rice on travelocity.com, do you mind if I book a second ticket in your name, in the seat next to hers, of course? :
Your background lends a great deal of credibility to your assessments of what is going on in the ME and what options might be pursued. What are you doing with your time these days, other than keeping abreast of the latest? :
July 18, 2006 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
DanK, you wrote: "You might find this unrealistic from an Israeli standpoint, since Israelis would actually face the military brunt of such an expanded conflcit. But chickenhawk American neocons are more or less safely ensconced behind their editorial desks in New York and Washington, on the other side of a wide ocean, and these are the kinds of games they play."
Yes, I agree these kinds of scenarios can't be ruled out so long as Bush and Cheney are in office. A view of the Middle East that perhaps it's as good a time as ever to "take out the trash" (letting the violence escalate and spread, in order to create a situation which could lead to the fall of as many as possible regimes of ME Arab states and Iran), is not at all inconsistent with what people like Perle and Kristol have been saying publicly for years.
I don't find it implausible that Cheney privately shares a similar mindset and ideal aims, although, as someone in a governing position he has to find some way to act on such views. He's shown himself to be pretty adept at doing just that.
Specifically, if permanent military bases in Iraq do not seem to be a "given" from the perspective of this Administration, then upsetting the applecart, or passively watching as it is upset, throughout the ME might be seen as maximizing the chances that the US would have a long-term military presence *somewhere* in the ME.
Per whiterosebuddy's comments, I would be very surprised if even this Administration would want to "take over"--even if they actually could do that at some acceptable cost--what is now Israel in the wake of some hypothetical widespread regional war that left Israel devastated. If they thought they could establish a long-term military presence in the ME outside of Israel, why would they want to accept the headaches that go along with trying to govern that land?
Cheney's private aims and views may prove to be pivotal. None of us is likely to know what those views are for 20 years, if then.
July 18, 2006 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Daniel - Thank you for your detailed and on the mark commentary. Voices such as yours NEED to be heard so that cautionary visions slow down the momentum for all out Mideast war that can build when emotions are in control. That is how we got into Iraq and why it is so important that we not rush headlong into an even wider war.
July 18, 2006 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have only one quarrel with Daniel Levy (the fact that he is not the Prime Minister is a sad commentary on the state of Israeli politics :-) ): Israel has to stand alone. No counting on US as helping in negotiations.
Bush did not visit Israel yet? Count your blessings.
If there is a political will in Israel to engage in diplomacy in the manner suggested by Daniel, USA most probably would not sabotage it, but it is absolutely not in the realm of possibilities that USA would influence Israeli politics in this direction. Note that I wrote "USA would most probably not sabotage diplomatic initiatives" and "USA absolutely will not promote meaningful diplomatic initiatives".
With another President here, who knows.
July 18, 2006 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for this!
I have a feeling I'm going to have reason to refer to this essay over and over again in the next several days, and to mull over what it has to say as the situation develops. I hope there will be a running commentary in the future, either as addenda here or as future essays. It is the most universally helpful post on the current situation that I've seen around the café area. I get a sense of the agony the region and the people of good will in it are going through. I wish you the best of luck, Mr. Levy, and I hope your wisdom prevails.
Mike
July 18, 2006 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Re whiterose , thanks. BTW I admire those
students
July 18, 2006 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Me too.
July 18, 2006 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Who knows what in the bloody hell the objectives really are?
The politicians say one thing, the military another.
Dan Halutz says that "it's impossible to crush a movement" and the commander of the Golani brigade in Gaza says the actions on the north en front are strengthening the will of the terror groups.
Of course the military will proceed as if the realities they see are irrelevent and insignificent in the face of risings in the blood.
One wonders if indeed the conflagration will be contained if PM Erdogan (as threatened) finally makes moves into northern Iraq to take on the PKK after 3 years of far more Turkish deaths-by-terrorists than than Israeli deaths caused by Hezbollah.
Perhaps though, the deaths of Turks fall into the collateral side of John Bolton's equation regarding the respective value of corpses depending on whether they can be catergorized as collaterals or shahids. Washington appears to think so.
Unless there is a regime change in Turkey, Israel's ties to Turkey have been severely compromised by the war on Lebanon. Erdogan has been very clear who he blames. Who thinks that the Turkish military will heed the voices of their former allies in DC think tanks if Erdogan unleashes them against the PKK at long last?
Israel's tissue allies in the ME may not be able to able to contain their populations if they continue their slaughter and pull more bonehead moves such as destroying UAE trucks bringing medical assistance into Lebanon.
Then there's the little matter of the estimated 500,000 Lebanese refugees.
July 18, 2006 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Bush administration and your tax dollars at work.
In order to undercut Iran, because the Bush administration has no relations with them, the Bush administration is wooing Syria. Moreover, the Bushies realize that Iran is driving events in the Middle East and has plans to demonstrate it's power and influence - not by nuclear means - but by bringing about a cessation of the violence - peacemaking. So George lets it be known that he thinks Syria is the king-maker or war-stopper in this instance.
Here is the way the WSJ [did not] put it:
"Despite Syria's growing isolation, some Israeli analysts have begun speculating that the U.S. may seek to throw Syria a lifeline. Under one scenario, the U.S. would end Syria's international isolation and possibly offer it some kind of aid package, in return for cutting ties with Iran and ending support for Hizbullah and Hamas."
You can find the whole piece on the front page of today's WSJ or this quote in Froomkin's White House Briefing in the WaPo.
The plot thickens considerably if one considers what General Odum said this morning on the DRShow: The U.S. should withdraw - cut and run - from Iraq because our presence there serves the interests of Iran, al-Qaeda, and all the various jihadists. It does not serve American interests. Odum went on to say that the U.S. should bring together all the participants in the fighting in the Middle East including Iran. Odum's remarks indicated that he was moving toward a kind of mutual nuclear standoff...a kind of MAD that would probably include North Korea because Iran and NK have already worked together on nuclear weapon development with the help of Pakistan.
You might want to listen to the archive of the interview by Diane Rehm of General Odum, Max Boot and Anthony Cordesman.
Seems the Middle East is more than just the Middle East and perhaps the Bush administration's fecklessness is drawing to a close.
July 18, 2006 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
AmericanDreamer,
I don't at all think the US wants to take over Israel, or views Israel as some sort of lost cause that it will now watch commit national suicide. They still want to win. So what does winning consist in for them? My best guess about the administration's overall strategic plan is this:
1. The US allows Israel to begin the operation of crushing Hizbollah and eliminating it as a military factor in the region. The US will stay out of direct participation in the Israel-Hizbollah conflict, but back up Israel's effort by intimidating Hizbollah's friends, Syria and Iran, and applying military force to those two countries if necessary.
2. They will also allow Israel to crush and marginalize Hamas by isolating Hamas and punishing the Palestinians until the latter choose new leadership.
3. The US will assist in both of these local efforts mainly by its diplomatic stance: preventing intervention or sanctions from other parts of the world, and giving Israel a free hand. They will assist with covert military and intelligence support, but will be reluctant to intervene directly in the Israel/Palestine/Lebanon neighborhood, which they see as Israel's sphere of influence and chief responsibility.
4. Both Israel and the US further hope to cement these local changes into place by bringing about regime change of some kind in Syria and Iran, with more west-friendly, US-friendly governments - governments willing to recognize Israel in exchange for good commercial relations with the West, security guarantees, etc. Maybe the regime change will be accomplished by unrelenting diplomatic and military pressure leading to a change in policies by the existing rulers (probably the preferred course of action for Syria); or maybe it will be accomplished by fomenting popular insurrection; or maybe by direct military means.
5. The point is to eliminate, whether gradually or suddenly, the entire regional support network for the Palestinians, to produce a situation in which the Palestinians are out of friends and options, and are forced to accept a settlement on terms preferred by Israel. With no arms, money or global diplomatic support flowing into Palestine, the national movement will, they assume, sputter and eventually die entirely.
6. Once they have been reduced to begging for whatever they can get, the Palestinians in the end get some sort of demilitarized "state" or homeland on the remaining chunks of the West Bank. Israel gets Jerusalem, and gets to keep more or less all the settlements. Israel gets total security responsibility for the entire region of Israel+Palestinian homeland. They get bases and security zones scattered among the Palestinian territories, including along the Jordan river. In effect they get control of everything, with the Palestinians exercising some rather limited form of home rule.
7. Once it is clear to all that the Palestinian casue is a lost one, people in the region will, they assume, adjust to the new reality. The Sunni Arab states, for example, are already lining up with the US (and indirectly Israel) because they fear rising Iranian and Shiite influence in the region. They want Israel to take out Hizbollah, and they want the US to tighten the screws and roll back Iran.
8. Iraq will remain a somewhat unsettled basket case, but with the eventual decline of the emotional Palestinian cause as a factor in the region, and a consequent decline in the global jihadist movement, and with a chastened Iran across the border, the hope is that the insugency dwindles, the Sadrists decline as a factor, more traditional strong hands assert their authority, and some rough settlement based on division of territories emerges.
I think it is a mistake to assume, as many commentators do, that the Bush administration would not dare to take on larger foes before "finishing" in Iraq. The Bushies do not share the quagmire-disaster view of Iraq, which they view as just the typical whining defeatism of the left. Where many people see failure and ruin, they see opportunities. I believe they see taking on other foes as the way to fix Iraq. That's how these guys think. When they have a problem, they approach the problem indirectly by escalating and seeking new battlefields. They moved on to Iraq before Afghanistan was "finished," and they believed the road to solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict ran through Baghdad. Now they no doubt believe the road to Baghdad runs through Tehran.
If the Israel-Hizbollah conflict quickly sparks wider conflict in the region, and races out of control, then that means that the big battle comes sooner rather than later, like a premature baby. But this is a battle they are determined to have one way or another, so that is not a top concern for them.
Keep in mind that these guys have rather grand views of themselves, and believe they live in dramatic, world historical times, calling for big, bold moves on the global board. Bush thinks he is Roosevelt in 1940 or 1941.
Remember that line about the administration'c contempt for the "reality-based community"? That line is often misinterpreted. The speaker was not contrasing a reality-based vs. a faith-based approach. What he was saying is that the administration's critics are small, unimaginative people and limited thinkers. They are trapped inside the narrow frameworks created by business-as-usual global "realities". However, the Bushies think they are energetic and imaginative dynamos, acting boldly and exerting titanic power to change existing realities and remake the world.
So: realistic plan or delusional, megalomaniacal, murderous lunacy? You tell me. But I do sincerely believe the plan still consists of something along these lines. And the Bushies have only a couple of years left to write out the epochal legacy they want to leave.
July 18, 2006 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Google terms: Israel, water, war
Here's one of the results: Israel issues threat in water row. Note the date of the article.
Then Google: "Middle East", water, war
Somewhere in the results is a report on Turkey shutting off water to Syria a couple of decades ago.
Water, not oil nor anti-Semitism, seems to be the real source of conflict. Why don't we hear more about that problem?
July 18, 2006 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the thoughtful analysis. I think that framing the crisis as Israel defending itself negates any calls for negotiations. I agree that Israel’s cause here is not just two soldiers. Israel routinely kidnaps people. I imagine that Hezbollah was thinking about a prisoner exchange (and Gaza) when they captured the soldiers. Hamas military and whoever else took Gilad Shilat were probably doing it as a response to one of the Israeli errant attacks but has nothing to do with civilians in Gaza or the elected government, most of whom were renditioned to Israel.It is not just a few people who think it is all about Israel-Palestine. And it’s not just a few that think Israel does not want to end this. Israel has admitted as much and admitted that they want to destroy Hezbollah.
Israel is hypocritical to bring up Hezbollah ignoring UN resolutions. They, too, ignore resolutions and then try to use them later to justify actions. Israel has had dozens of UN resolutions passed against it for violating human rights among other things. They just stuff them n the glove box. They would have had dozens and dozens of more severe resolutions passed against them if not for sole U.S. veto. Syria’s repeated offers to facilitate negotiations have been rebuffed, as has the deployment of international forces. Israel’s goal seems to be regime change in Lebanon.
I watch broadcast news in dismay. That Iran and Syria are “behind this” is reported as gospel. Over 200 Lebanese have been slaughtered (and it doesn’t wash that IDF thinks Hezbollah fighters are sitting in apartments in South Beirut). Yet, watching broadcast news or reading headlines, it is the attack on Israel that is highlighted. IDF attacks are reported; they are just buried behind the Israel-as-injured-party stories. Yesterday while dozens of Lebanese were killed by IDF, the only video that I saw (on several channels) was that of an empty apartment getting hit in Haifa. Fair and balanced? Truthful?
One CBS analyst, Col. Mitch Mitchell, spoke of the reach of Hezbollah as being greater and more powerful than al Qaeda and how they arrested two Hezbollah last month in America plotting a big attack. Conflating localized rebel groups who use terror with global terror groups like al Qaeda is something the administration has been chipping away at for five years now. Of course, it means we may have to go fight them there so we don’t have to fight them here pretty soon.
I heard from two separate broadcasts that the U.S. is moving as fast as they can on evacuations but have to protect against attacks, even though they don’t think Hezbollah would attack evacuees. Please. Israel is shelling Lebanon, not Hezbollah, but we can’t even admit that it is Israel’s bombs that we are evacuating from. They are using the same “collective punishment” in Gaza. These are atrocities and war crimes. But the international community will never say so or demand an immediate cessation.
July 18, 2006 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
DanK, you wrote: "Remember that line about the administration'c contempt for the "reality-based community"? That line is often misinterpreted. The speaker was not contrasing a reality-based vs. a faith-based approach. What he was saying is that the administration's critics are small, unimaginative people and limited thinkers. They are trapped inside the narrow frameworks created by business-as-usual global "realities". However, the Bushies think they are energetic and imaginative dynamos, acting boldly and exerting titanic power to change existing realities and remake the world."
Yes, exactly. Good point. That is how they think. Their instinct whenever someone says "You can't do that, politically" is to say "The hell we can't."
I doubt that, if things were to play out along the lines you surmise, the cause of the Palestinians would peter out. To the contrary, I think such a "solution" as you imagine would continue to fuel the rage. Maybe the only thing worse than the status quo for Palestinians would be to have to live in a thoroughly subjugated condition under the thumbs of people they despise, under circumstances in which they would then be expected to be grateful?
But I find it easy to imagine the Bush Administration folks believing that under such a scenario the Palestinian cause would lose much of its power as a source of animus against Israel and the US. Consistently, they have been surprised when their projected rosy scenarios do not turn out as projected. Undeterred, they just move on to the next war-as-solution.
Where do you believe "permanent" military
bases, in Iraq and/or other ME countries, ranks, and fits in, as a strategic priority for this Administration?
July 18, 2006 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I doubt that, if things were to play out along the lines you surmise, the cause of the Palestinians would peter out. To the contrary, I think such a "solution" as you imagine would continue to fuel the rage.
You may very well be right, but as you go on to recognize, that never stops the wishful thinking in Washington and Israel: if only the Syrians were not allowing Hamas and Hexbollah operatives to use headquarters in Syria; if only the Iranians were not arming Hexbollah; if only Nasser or Arafat or Palestinian or Arab leader so-and-so was out of the picture, etc.
As I see it, permanent bases in Iraq are meant to pressure and intimidate Iran and Syria, and make the possibility of forward basing of US ground forces in the event of war with one or both of those countries, and supply lines running into the heart of the Middle East, a fact to be reckoned with. That's one reason Bush won't leave, although the mission may change.
Several US moves since 9/11 can be seen as ways of tightening the noose around Iran, by creating the opportunity for multiple fronts against them in a future war. Consider some key neighboring states, and US moves and relations with these states in the last few years: Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar.
July 18, 2006 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have to say that while I can't agree that this policy is rational in any sense, it does seem to be where the US is headed.
Just how complete the plan is is also unclear, but clearly it does entail attacking Iran and supporting anything Israel wants to do to eliminate Hamas, Hizballah, Syria, Lebanon, and ultimately the Palestinians.
July 18, 2006 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
True - but that doesn't mean the US won't TRY.
July 18, 2006 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
You might be right about the plan, but Iran is a major country with major resources in a major strategic location. I don't think the rest of the world is going to sit idly by and let Israel and the US reorder strategic regions and resources at will. None have the power to take us on directly but they can bleed us over time like they bleed Israel. At best, Iran can only be temporarily defeated. Geography is destiny and if the US only had common sense it would thank the Lord for the virtues of its own geography and not tempt fate by trying to control someone else's map.
July 18, 2006 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now whoever rated this post zero is just being an idiot.
This post was a simple statement of opinion and included a link to an article which included a quote by a respected international military strategy expert, Anthony Cordesman. In my view, he is clearly correct, but regardless of his viewpoint, his viewpoint is certainly worth more than a zero rating.
I rated this post a 4, but unfortunately, 0 + 4 divided by 2 only gives it a 2.
Useful links to offsite materials should be rated according to their value, not the opinion. An exception might be when the links are repeated too many times.
UPDATE: And the article points out exactly what I've been saying here for some time, as follows:
"Through Hamas and the Hezbollah, Iran could bring the war to Israeli territory, a scenario that has further accentuated Israel's vulnerability to asymmetric warfare. By preemptively attacking Hamas and the Hezbollah now, Israel can significantly deprive Iran of its capabilities to retaliate against the Jewish State in the event of a U.S. assault on Iran. Once Iran obtains a nuclear capability, however, this option may no longer be available to Israel."
Exactly - except that the point of attacking Hizballah now is not to deprive Iran of the ability to use Hizballah, it is in fact to remove one of the reasons cited by Western observers for the US NOT attacking Iran - namely, that Iran could use Hizballah to retaliate. If Hizballah is ALREADY at war with Israel, Israel obviously feels that the US might as well attack Iran, since the damage is already done.
Where Israel may miscalculate is that the US might not be happy about the damage already being done, especially with 25,000 US citizens in harms war from Israeli bombs.
The reality is that Israel wants to attack Iran now because if Iran ever does get nuclear weapons, Israel's and the US's policy of regime change for Iran will have to be taken off the table.
Thus, Israel, irritated that the US has been dragging its feet toward the war in Iran as it hems and haws over the possible impact on the US elections, has widened the ME war in order to force the US into a war with Iran.
Whether this will work at this time is unclear. What is clear is thst a war between the US and Iran is virtually inevitable - at least under the Bush administration or any likely Republican administration to follow - and probably under the most likely Democratic administration, should one arise in 2008.
July 18, 2006 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
So do I
Remembering the "White Rose" http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,783992,00.html
60 years ago, on Feb. 22, 1943, three students of the Munich-based resistance group “White Rose” were executed for inciting young people to rise against Hitler -- a fact that many young Germans today are unaware of.On a clear February day in 1943, Hans and Sophie Scholl entered the deserted atrium of the Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich bearing a suitcase full of leaflets containing a passionate appeal to Germans to engage in "passive resistance" against Hitler and the Third Reich.
They worked swiftly, dropping stacks of the explosive leaflets throughout the corridors, just minutes before the atrium would be flooded with students leaving lectures and classes. Before hurrying outside to safety, the brother and sister, on a last-minute urge, decided to get rid of the remaining few documents in the suitcase.
22-year-old biology and philosophy student Sophie Scholl hurriedly climbed the grand marble staircase to the upper level of the hall and in a rush of emotion, flung the last remaining leaflets high in the air. The dozens of pamphlets glided down to the feet of scores of stunned students exiting lecture halls, among them university janitor and Nazi Party member, Jakob Schmidt.
Schmidt spotted Sophie and Hans with the leaflets -- within minutes the doors were locked, the police called and Hans and Sophie were hustled into Gestapo custody. Four days later they went on trial for treason along with another accomplice, 24-year-old Christoph Probst, and were executed by the Gestapo within hours on the same day. (read the rest by using the link at the top of this posting)
July 18, 2006 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
NBC did a good job tonight. They lead the news from the Lebanese perspective. They made very clear that 250 Lebanese civilians had been killed and 25 Israelis. They focused on Americans in Lebanon and our goverments late response to evacuate them. They made clear that the largest number of Lebanese outside Lebanon are in Michigan. They broadcast a story about a Michigan family whose elderly parents had to take a scary trip to get stranded in Syria. They broadcast a protest march in Michigan by Lebanese against the war. Good job. Nice to see some balance.
July 18, 2006 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I pretty much agree with your assessment - very comprehensive and almost certainly correct.
Whether it will proceed as directly as that is unclear at this time - there may be fits and starts before the whole ball of wax rolls up - but clearly this IS the neocon, Israeli and oil/military-industrial complex game plan.
July 18, 2006 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Israel Lobby Watch
The Merkavas of Freedom have entered the refugee camps of Gaza
July 18, 2006 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Israel Lobby Watch
The G-8 Declaration was what it was on its face on Sunday - a pitiful threadbare attempt to paper over differences between the US/Israel and the rest of the planet. Some thought, Daniel apparently still thinks, that this declaration was real.
Sad..very very sad. Read the Bush-Blair colloquy.
Plain truth hurts - George Bush's October Surprise arranged in May, delivered in June by Olmert Express.
And how R my Zionist friends doing today? What's wrong Zionista...cat got your tongue or are you just too ashamed?
Mozeltov!
July 18, 2006 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Israel Lobby Watch
We're witnessing nothing less than the last desperate roll of the dice by a dying Bush administration and its Likudnik allies in Israel.
Underwritten in dollars by the US taxpayer and in blood by US servicemen and women.
The conclusion is inescapable and it is is irrefutable
Hello again Mary of RI and Zionista
Shalom
July 18, 2006 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've discussed Iran's obvious option in the past - the Vietnamese option: bleed the US in a ten-year guerrilla war that leaves the US broke economically, militarily and geopolitically.
This strategy cannot fail absent the US nuking Iran out of existence.
Now that Israel has widened the war in the ME for the purpose of forcing the US to attack Iran, Hizballah can engage in the same strategy that was successful for them the last time Israel invaded Lebanon. Nasrallah is clearly correct in being confident that Hizballah will be able to defeat Israel yet again. While Hizballah can do nothing to destroy Israel, it can bleed Israel for years to come.
Israel's strategy has been suggested as terrorizing the population of Iran in order to turn them against Hizballah. This strategy will not work - the people know WHO is bombing them. Dahr Jamail reports Lebanese fleeing the bombing are saying the Israelis are indiscriminately bombing EVERYTHING in Lebanon including hospitals, and refugees on bridges. This strategy will no more work in Lebanon than it does for the US in Iraq.
Both Israel and the US are sowing the seeds for a certain defeat. The problem is how many people will die in the process, and how much this will cost the US taxpayer.
July 18, 2006 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree.
July 18, 2006 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
And that's as far as I got.
July 18, 2006 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amen to that. It doesn't matter a whit whether Israel is right or wrong. It matters who can control the map. The US can't control the map of Afghanistan or Iraq. The US government can't control our own borders let alone the borders of whatever kind of colony it wants in the Mideast. It doesn't matter if it defeats Iran, it can't control Iran. It already proved that once with the Shah.
July 18, 2006 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any requests...?
July 18, 2006 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Reading here and in the Bogging from Beirut post, I found my mind returning to a poem by Wilfred Owen, written during the last "Gentleman's War," and set to music by Benjamin Britten in his War Requiem.
The poem is Strange Meeting:
I won't quote it all, but maybe these few lines encapsule what the whole Middle East Fiasco means to me.
Read it, and while you're at it, read more of Owen's' poetry. He needs rediscovery. We need that he never be forgotten.
Mike
July 18, 2006 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, the report on the Dearborn, Mi. Americans with family in Lebanon was very good. It’s nice to see a little play from one of the other sides (I say one because the Gaza “Summer Rain” story has all but disappeared). The News Hour also had a good report from Lebanon, at least before it went to the usual talking head spinners. I don’t mean to say that they must show both sides, tit for tat. I just think that so much of what happens to the Palestinians, say, goes unreported; it grossly misrepresents what’s really going on. The media is so schizophrenic when it comes to Israel. Here is an editorial or letter to the Editor excoriating Canada’s National Post for featuring a photo of dead Canadian children in lebanon. To paraphrase: Why can’t you show dead Jewish children? Insane.
July 18, 2006 6:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. Thanks for the link Mike. That's spine-tinglingly good.
July 18, 2006 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
If by any chance you're a classical music fan, I recommend Benjamin Britten's War Requiem. I have the Pears, Fisher-Dieskau-Vishnevskya version. I sang in a performance of it with the Cleveland Orchestra about a jillion years ago. Looking up the link and getting to Wikipedia, I see it's been made into a film. I'm going to have to chase that down.
Mike
July 18, 2006 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
An important essay. Mr Levy, have you thought of writing a shorter version for the New York Times? Americans need to hear your thoughts.
July 18, 2006 10:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure if Whiterose is kidding, but the US cannot even control Baghdad, now the plan is to control the whole Middle East?
Don't expect any help from the Saudi's or the UAE, they are a truly useless bunch of hypocrites.
July 18, 2006 10:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
It should be evident just how insane is the mindset of the ME Grand Planners from the point of view of those who understand what the US military's true capabilities are for engaging in conflict on multiple fronts.
Another way to look at George Will's column this week blasting the neocons is as a reflection of some concern that, as between a) a Republican party in the grip of leaders who have no sense of the limitations of US military capability and grossly overcommit, with inevitable disasters the result; and b) a Democratic party, which, while it has a squishy identity on national security issues, does not exhibit any such tendencies, the Republican party is at some risk of erosion of its support among military personnel who make and carry out war plans, as distinct from the contractors who stand to rake in big dough (an emerging wedge issue there between different "military" constituencies?).
Will's aim is to reassure anxious national security Republicans that neoconservatism does not represent the "real" Republican party on national security issues.
What he might have difficulty explaining--if someone asked him to do so--is how, if this is the case, key goals and tactics of some of the neoconservatives such as Kristol and Perle have somehow managed to be reflected in decisions this Republican Administration has made.
If Kristol & Co.'s ideas have no influence in this Administration, why bother blasting him? If those ideas have had influence, then are Bush and Cheney just helpless pawns in the face of Kristol's evidently beguiling and too-difficult-to-resist advice? Have they simply been brainwashed? Does Condi Rice say or do anything Bush doesn't want her to?
One of the tensions/contradictions in his writings over the years is between his love of the grandiose, clearcut and pure vision, and his rhetorical insistence on "facing facts", seeing the world the way it is even where that is not the way we'd like it to be, and not putting the government to work at doing grand things it just cannot pull off (old fashioned conservatism).
He wants national greatness. He just doesn't think the actions of government are a way to get there.
He loved Reagan precisely for the boldness of his vision (well, ok, it was the access, but he liked the high rhetoric, too), the audacity of his rhetoric, his willingness to see and state the world in good and evil terms vis a vis the Soviets. With regard to Iraq and the current situation, it appears he thinks his party has gone at least a bridge too far, that the canyon between the grand rhetoric and professed aims, and the strategies being used to achieve them (at least as implemented) has become too wide for his taste. This Republican government--at the moment anyway--needs to stifle itself.
July 19, 2006 7:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rough translation: it is sweet and proper to die for one's fatherland.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
July 19, 2006 8:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, except one would hope that the Gray Lady would have enough sense to publish the whole thing, and the readers of her (who, after all, are supposed to be the elite) would have enough sense to read it all.
Mike
July 19, 2006 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course the US is going to try.
They've already failed, but there's a peculiar American quality of bloodymindedness that won't admit to failure.
Some other power would gather up its cards, call it a day, and look for a new great game and new strategy.
But America is incapable of acknowledging defeat. So any setback is obviously temporary, pluck and determination will see the day, and the way to win is to do more and further, harder, deeper, longer.
I expect millions dead and the region in ruins before you are finally driven out.
July 19, 2006 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with you. I don't think he's correct about there not being a wider gameplan. Everything the Israelis have said so far about Syria and Iran pretty clearly shows their intent is wider than just Hizballah - and a number of analysts have said so.
I also don't see how he squares "messages between Tel Aviv and Damascus" with the Israeli demand that Syria restrain Hizballah within 72 hours or Israel will attack Syria.
July 19, 2006 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Transhuman,
If the Israelis are so certain, bloodthirsty and opportunistic, then why haven't they acted against Syria or Iran so far?
July 19, 2006 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Howard writes.
Meaning of course "The Old Lie" not the poem proper. Not that I think even the dullest and most perverse of readers could misinterpret the poem entire. Paradoxically, it's hard to project what kind of poetry might have come from Owen's pen had he survived the War to End all Wars. Maybe without the desperate inspiration of his service on the front he might have written polite verse for ladies in lavender to recite to each other at lawn parties.
I read this one last a couple of years ago. Thanks for reminding me of it.
Mike
July 19, 2006 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
You have to admire how Bush stands by his friends....
Voters for Peace
July 19, 2006 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Israel Lobby Watch
Larry Johnson wrote that Israel had swallowed a "stupid pill". The Bush Administration needed no such pill and they've a nastier one to swallow.
The contrast between the Bush UnderSecty of State and Brzezinski/Kissinger this evening on NewsHour could not have been more striking.
On the one hand, Bush continues to enable the Israeli aggression apparently believing that international pressure (ie everyone but the US) can bring Syria, Iran and Hizbollah to heel. In short, the stupid pill people are delusional. They want the US supported autocrats in Saudi and Jordan to commit hara kiri for Israel and somehow pressure Israel's antagonists to give up.
Amazing isn't it???
B/K have a different plan.{ Brzezinski, Kissinger Debate U.S. Role in Mideast Crisis} This is not going to stop until Bush negotiates directly with Hizbollah, Syria and Iran. WOW. That's just what Josh Landis has been saying
I just received an email from Bill Powers of the National Journal on an entirely different subject. "Come to Jesus Time" is a favorite of his and one I hadn't heard in years - not since my political daze in the South.
It is Come To Jesus Time for Israel and their NeoCon allies in Washington
PS Mary
Sorry I ddn't please you ..will try harder next time. Can't do anything about Landis, Brzezinski or Kissinger..Afraidd I can't do much about Israel, its Lobby or the neocons either but I'll try
July 19, 2006 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Israel Lobby Watch
Bush and the Israel Lobby Would Have You Believe the same propaganda swill that Daniel Levy reports is being fed Israelis - that the world is foursquare behind their mounting attrocities and war crimes. Who are you going to believe - George Bush or your lying eyes???Thank you Howard. I really should watch those broken links
Dang me Mary...there's jsut no pleasing you is there..women! can't live with em, can't live with em! ;)
Can't do anything about them Euros or the Lebanese ingrates either.
Say Mary...you like children? Be warned not pretty, though I thought the pics of Israeli girls signing artillery shells was quite fetching. What did you think?
July 19, 2006 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Israel Lobby Watch
Believe Bush War Party/IsraelLobby or the Prime Minister of Lebanon?
Syria expert Josh Landis of the Univesity of Oklahoma provides this comment from a former US ambassador to an Arab country revealing how pitifully weak the Bush-Lobby-War Party line is
All Hat .No Cattle...Come to Jesus Time
Gee Mary..You are hell on wheels today. God bless you!
No pleasing you is there..But it dawned on me..Perhaps it isn't Europeans, Arabs, the Ambassador or the PM of Lebanon that bothers you so.
Perhaps it is jsut the substance of what we all have to tell you. That right?
Let those who have ears, hear, eyes-see.
See ya
July 19, 2006 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
From Transhuman's febrile nudear fantasies to Bush's "world opinion" delusions, the one common and striking feature is - none of the many speculations about Israel's motives makes any sense, None of them are remotely rational including Juan Cole's latest in Salon.com
None of it makes rational sense, leaving only one possible conclusion - The Stark Raving Mad Theory of IR propounded in this case by none other than the Capt of the MotherShip himself three years ago
Best I can do Mary. Have I missed something?
Voters for Peace
July 19, 2006 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Circumstances rule.
Today is not the same as yesterday.
In other words, without being privy to the counsel going on between Washington and Israel, how do I know FOR CERTAIN why the TIMING is chosen as it is?
One can easily suggest any number of reasons, including the fact that this year is election year in the US, and the fact that the US has been slow in setting up the war on Iran that Israel desires.
A certain amount of coordination between the US and Israel is also necessary if the goal is to actually start a war, right?
Olmert's visit some months ago was specific in that while the media talked about the Palestinian situation, Olmert talked about Iran. It's very likely that the current situation was planned at that meeting.
If you have the minutes of those meetings, I'd like to see them - assuming anything was written down, of course.
Finally, the same question could be asked in the other direction: if Hamas and Hibzallah are such "bad guys", why didn't Israel attack them last year - when in fact the plan was, according to Israeli analysts, precisely that - or the previous year - or before the last 18 months when Hizballah was in fact restraining itself from attacking Israel?
Why did Israel not finish off Hibzallah when they were in fact occupying Lebanon?
Like I said - circumstances rule.
July 19, 2006 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that in some sense chaos is the goal of the neocons.
It's not - at least ultimately - the goal of the Israelis, though.
It's not even clear that chaos is an "ultimate" goal of the neocons, but perhaps an intermediate goal on the way to their goal of "Empire".
And I'd say my worst-case scenario of nuclear war certainly qualified as "chaos", if not a "plan".
Juan Cole may be correct that the immediate or intermediate goal of Israel is to push the Shiites out of southern Lebanon in order to set up a "security boundary" - and he's certainly correct that it won't work, just as the "Wall" hasn't stopped Hamas factions from continuing resistance - it won't stop Hizballah from attacking the Israeli military, even if it reduces attacks on Israeli civilians (but Hizballah can always get even longer range rockets...) But I think Israel has much larger goals with the current situation.
Just pushing the Shiites out of Southern Lebanon would merely require strikes at Southern Lebanon - not the "spasm war" we're actually seeing where Israel bombs hospitals, refugees and everything else in sight all over Lebanon.
July 19, 2006 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Have stopped trying to make sense of madness - it takes its toll.
Nothing that the Israelis are doing makes any sense. They cannot bomb Hizbollah out of S. Lebanon. That is impossible short of heavy bombers which they do not have or nuclear weapons which would wipe out at least 1/2 of Israel at the same time.
Nothing makes sense TH..not even the apparent goal of sucking the US into fighting Iran and Syria..that is not going to happend - period. And apparently Billy Kristol's crowd are beside themselves that Bush hasn't sent in the Marines
Madness takes its toll TH. All San Franciscanws know this
Voters for Peace
July 19, 2006 8:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, according to Emperor Norton, madness is a good thing.
This, San Franciscans know.
July 19, 2006 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now that Bush told them to drop dead
How many troops does the Vatican have? Well Bush has given Olmert a week to kill as many Lebanese as he can. After that, I guess Israel wll become a rogue state and Bush in a move to enforce the scores of UN resolutions this criminal enterprise has violated with impunity over the years, will send in the 82d Airborne and carrier battlegroup to clear Northern Israel of IDf
Right????
Voters for Peace
July 19, 2006 9:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Min tracht und Gott lakht."
July 20, 2006 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Holy cow! Now the Israel Lobby includes OPEC states? Is there anyone left out anymore?
July 20, 2006 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Lebanon is the 'Inconvenient Truth' to the lies of Bushco and Israeli PR--the sad fact is that they've seen all this before from Israel, right down to the War Crimes--the world turned their back on Lebanon once, will they do so again?
To anybody who would like to learn more about Lebanon and the current crisis, I recommend Pity the Nation, by Robert Fisk. For anybody unaware of Fisk, he was 'on the ground' in Lebanon during most of the 'civil war,' and he managed to shine a light on a lot of dirty things that the Israeli government would rather not have shown to the world.
July 20, 2006 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink