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Whither America?

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There is no shortage of things to shudder at and lament in this current spiral of death in the Levant. But what stands out to me right now is the seeming irrelevance and marginality of the United States.

Where is America? Whoever you believe is right or wrong in this mess, I doubt very much that the powers directly involved have the will and ability to de-escalate the situation. Some want to. Others don't. But take the region as a whole and the differences between will, desire and ability fade into insignificance. (Here's an interesting article from the Jerusalem Post on Israel's aims vis a vis the Lebanese government, based largely on an interview with a high-ranking IDF officer.)

Some might say that the Bush administration's silence is acquiescence or approval of the Israeli raids into Lebanon and Gaza. But I think it's more than that. This is silence born of over-extension and policy exhaustion. Thinking back through the 1960s, 70s, 80s, and 90s -- with key crises in each decade -- I don't think there's any example where an American administrtion has so thoroughly marginalized itself or shown such impotence and irrelevance.


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Well, you may be right. But somehow I don't think the Cheney Administration is quite done yet. If you take this Israeli action at face value, it is difficult to recall any previous one this self-defeating. They can't bomb Hezbollah into nonexistence (simply can't be done with air power), they don't want to reestablish the buffer zone themselves, and they can't make the Lebanese Government do it for them (because they're incapable of taking on Hezbollah and would rather be pounded by the Israelis than start another civil war). The Israelis aren't even "defending themselves": the rockets are still raining down on northern Israel. So what the hell is this all about? Even resolute anti-conspiracy theorists feel almost compelled to look for something beneath the surface.

I agree with your assessment. But I would widen it to include virtually every facet of governing. I can't see one instance in the years the Bush Administration has been in power where there have been any steps forward either domestically or in foreign affairs.

Where is America? Whoever you believe is right or wrong in this mess, I doubt very much that the powers directly involved have the will and ability to de-escalate the situation.

 

The Bush Administration's silence has been deafening.  The most plausible explanation in my mind is they want to see the conflict widen.  I can't think of any other reason right now to explain the adminstration's silence.  This isn't about supporting Israel or not supporting Israel...it is about Bush and the neocons not being able to recognize the inherent evilness of war.  I hate to say it (and I really mean that) but judging by the administration's handling of Katrina, Iraq and now this conflict they don't put much of a value on human life. 

This is simply insane foreign policy on Israel's part, wholesale impotence on America's part, and an event that is tailored to breed yet another generation of people hating America and Israel.

The world's appetite for reconstructing the same territorial infrastructures must be at its absolute limit. Instead of being able to dedicate humanitarian aid to truly humanitarian causes, the world must once again throew good money after bad into a bottomless pit of hatred and stupidity.

And now that a real crisis exists, Condi Rice can't devide which pair of shoes to wear.

Josh: The Bush administration has painted itself into a corner. It's made it clear it won't talk to Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, Iran. Which means it will talk and listen only to Israel. Hard to exert influence when you've tied your own hands behind your back in this way.

Israel's actions are moving Lebanese society squarely behind Hezbollah (just as US society lined up behind Bush after 9/11). Couldn't shoot itself in the foot in a bigger way.
Olmert has said he won't stop until Hezbo cries uncle. That won't happen. So, without adult supervision (the US knocking heads), it'll be hard for Israel and Hezbo to make any moves that don't entail losing face. Meanwhile, the US is contemplating the undoing of its only success story in the region.

Obviously Iran greenlighted this. You have to give it to the ayatollahs. They could be teaching Diplomacy 101 to the West. They've been running circles around the doofus in the WH.

Back in 2000, when it became glaringly apparent just how utterly unqualified Bush was to hold the office of President, I worried that no one seemed to understand that it was important to have a competent person in that office.  When I would mention this to people they seemed to believe that Bush had all of the same qualifications and more that Clinton had.  I really expected a disaster if Bush got elected.

Well, now we see that I was correct.  Competence doesn't just mean the ability to get tax cuts passed.  It also means the ability to appoint capable people to the many federal jobs the President controls, especially the cabinet officers.  We don't have those capable people in those offices.

Yes, Condi is an embarassment, at best, but a looming disaster at worst.  She fumbled her first job so badly 9/11 was a successful attack on us.  How anyone could dream she could handle her current job amazes me.

What ever our country could do to defuse the Middle East situation can't be done with this crew in charge.  They really have no idea, nor any obvious interest in how to do that.  Beyond plotting to rake in some more billions of dollars for Halliburton and other favored corporations, they seem unable to figure out any way to do any major job.  I have yet to see them show any interest in even trying.

We are in for a rough three years ahead. 

Hoppy in Sacramento

I've already said it today in other places, but I'll repeat it here. When the stick's broke and you're out of carrots, there ain't much you can do.

I'm not hearing deafening silence from Bush. I'm hearing him excuse Irael's assault on Lebanon. There is something particularly morally repugnant about high tech air power brutally killing anonymous, defenseless civilians on the ground - whether those civiilians are deliberate targets or "collateral damage". That hi tech weaponry is our gift to Israel, which means we bear a lot of responsibility for this tragedy, especially when BushCo and the world's superpower do nothing to stop it.

Bush has become a prisoner of his misguided war in Iraq.

Perhaps the most stunning of Bush's miscalculations about the consequences of establishing a "democratic" Iraq was the effect that the toppling Saddam would have on Iran.

His father knew that Iraq, despite the inherently evil nature of its despotic regime, provided a necessary counterweight to the nefarious ambitions of Iran. Yet because the Shiites are the true beneficiaries of the Iraqi war, Iran's influence in the region has been strengthened.

Consequently, Iran has been empowered, not only to move foward in its quest for nuclear weapons, but also to cause its surrogate, Hezbollah, to act more provocatively toward Israel.

To futher complicate matters, Bush, in a cynical attempt to pander to a segment of American Jews in order to peel off a portion of their votes, has had a laissez-faire policy toward Israel.

So Israel, like Iran (although I am drawing no moral equivalence) has been emboldened to push the envelope of their ambitious policy goals.

In effect, Bush has been hoisted on his own petard.

I think that it’s always politics and self-interest with this administration. While the country was in 9/11 shock and on a never-ending terror alert, Bush could play the cowboy. But war and terror fatigue has set in. Iraq blew the image of Cowboy George in a white hat riding into the sunset. If cowboy diplomacy is out, what’s left for these guys?

Remember how weak and fumbling Bush appeared before his Great Warrior façade appeared (pre-9/11)? His real character (and I include his handlers and sycophants here) is shining through again. Besides he showed early on that he was a paper tiger on Israel. Sharon basically punked him when he tried to dictate an easing off of Israeli incursions. Putin just punked him, too. Maybe if he lets things play out, he’ll get another shot at war president with Syria or Iran or at least the threat of war.

The administration is quiet but still defending Israel’s every action as witnessed by the veto of the U.N. resolution condemning Israel’s collective punishment strategy. Eight of the last nine Security Council vetoes have been by the U.S. covering Israeli actions. The article from the Jeruselum Post is interesting, as is the one next to it: "'Lebanon can be shut down for years'." I’m not saying that if Israel is attacked, they shouldn’t act. They just need to act like grownups. Without U.S. involvement, Israel is the only real power here and they need to wield it carefully. And, frankly, I don’t know that direct involvement by the WH would lead to any kind of resolution, peaceful or not.

"Relations between the United States and Israel are crucial to stability in the Middle East, where the road to peace and prosperity continues to be fraught with many obstacles. In this regard, Congress has placed considerable importance on the maintenance"

There's your "policy exhaustion". Whether this mess in the Levant had occured 2, 3, 4,5 years ago doesn't matter. Bush has been toady to Israel since he took office. And demonstrably its puppet (if any want to extend remarks I'd be delighted!). 

But that statement above by Dianne Feinstein, my dear Likudnik Senator, tells you everything you need to know about US "policy exhaustion".  I should also add that I do not think that one's position on this question is independent of where one stands on the present crisis. For those who support Bush ME policies - especially now - they are delighted

 If you'd like to know more about it...

For a good analysis of where Israel is dragging an impotent US adminstration and Lobby conditioned public, Joshua Landis (SyriaComment.com)

At the most basic level, the present conflagration in Israel and Lebanon is all about gaining "respect" in the tough and nasty street wars of the Middle East. The region's leaders, many of whom are new and untested, are seeking to demonstrate where true authority and might lies now that the tide of American power that swept over the region following 9-11 is draining away. A tectonic shift is taking place as local actors who have had their ears pinned back for several years are beginning to assert themselves anew....

Clearly the Defense Department is running with this and is prepared to use Israel as its stalking horse in the Middle East. How far Washington is willing to go in this game or how far Israel is willing to go is anyone's guess. My guess is that cooler heads in Washington will not allow Israel to drag the US into strikes against Syria or Iran. Both Muqtada al-Sadr and Iranian authorities have said that US soldiers will be targeted if Syria is hit. This is an election year. The US is trying to get itself out of the Middle East quagmire, not into it. The US was led down the garden path by Rumsfeld and Cheney once, it will not allow itself to be so easily led by the nose again. This time there is no believing that western bombs will be met by Arabs with flowers or eager democrats. I don't buy the Defense Department's bluster.

There are plenty of tough talkers in the US. The New Republic has come out swinging in its editorials, calling for the US to get tough with Syria. The Weekly Standard has done the same in an article by Jeffrey Azarva of the Enterprise Institute, entitled, "Getting Serious About Syria."

If Washington and Israel do have to settle this by going to Damascus, then Bashar will have sent his message loud and clear: I am here. I demand respect. Cut out all the silliness about isolation and the blind eye doctor. Syria is an important player. Anyone who wants to do business in the region will have to address me politely and be ready to trade in kind. Syria is not a charitable organization.

Once again, an example of how the Israel Lobby has hijacked US foreign policy. This is, as I've said, all about "Securing the Realm", the last gasp of some very desperate leaders in Israel and the US.

Hoppy

A deftly written post indeed.

Your argument is correct only if analyzing the policies of the Bush administration in terms of political success or failure.

But politics has always been second, or even third, to this administration. One of the truly unique aspects of this presidency is its absolute blatant disragard for political chivalry. It sniffs at the chess game being played in the smoky parlor and opts instead for a questionable hunting excursion.

Bush and even Cheney are mere pawns on this high-stakes board. The field generals of this campaign are not necessarily Bush, Cheney, or Rove. They are merely the public relations specialists for the true power men, the men of the most economically robust trade in the world, the men of Big Oil.

Al Gore and George Bush agree on one important point. America is addicted to oil. The addiction consumes every aspect of our economy. Everyone, even those who do not drive, are affected by it.

No. Politics was never a game that the Bush administration was ever interested in playing. It was, if you will, the proverbial bypassed soccer game in the United States.

Oil. There is the reason. There is the policy. The men who run the oil run the nation and its government. CEO's, VP's, boardmemebers, etc. Those who say Bush has attempted to create an Authoritarian state are fools. Bush has created an oligarchical society in which a few elites dictate policy.

A war in the Middle East only serves to hurt the oil industry. Yet, that is exactly what these oil men want. Why would oil men want the oil industry to be destroyed? Can you use some didactic logic here...?


I don't agree that Iran "greenlighted" this - not unless somebody such as Amadinejad went behind the mullahs back to do so.

Look at the situation. Iran is under pressure from the UN and the IAEA to freeze its nuclear energy program. They are trying to stall the negotiations and come up with a way to continue negotiations on their terms.

One might suggest they would do something like this to take the nuclear program off the table, but exactly how does that work when Israel is loudly blaming Iran for every detail of this situation - including accusing Iran of supplying hundreds of Iranian troops and weapons into Lebanon and directly attacking Israel? Do you think the Iranians wouldn't have known that was coming?

Iran had no reason to start this - but Israel certainly did. Israel - or at least the Israeli military - has been impatient with the slow progress of the US's attempts to stop the Iranian program - enough to threaten bombing Iran itself several times. Israel could easily see that the path of UN sanctions and the like could take years and wouldn't be effective anyway.

One of the reasons people keep telling me Bush would never attack Iran is because Iran could retaliate against Israel and the US by using Hizballah and Hamas to conduct "asymmetric warfare" in the region.

Well, Israel has already set that in motion. By widening the ME conflict, they get to use Hamas and Hizballah as reasons to attack Syria and perhaps Iran. They get to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities - facilities not set up for atomic bombs, but for Iran's economic future. Israel gets to seriously damage the Syrian and Iranian economies, at the very least. The best outcome from their standpoint would be if Syria and/or Iran engage Israel militarily as well. Then they can drag the US into the war, and sit back, knock out Lebanon and Hizballah, crush Hamas, all the while letting the US destroy Syria and Iran.

Nice. All their enemies done up in one neat bloodstained bundle.

Why would Iran trigger this at this time? It makes no sense to me, either in timing or reasoning. Iran knows it cannot defeat Israel with Hizballah in any real military sense. Iran knows Israel will blame Iran for starting something like this. Iran knows the US will use that against it.

Iran has no motives to start a wider ME war at this time - unless Iran KNEW it was going to be attacked anyway in the very near future. Then I might buy it.


"A war in the Middle East only serves to hurt the oil industry. Yet, that is exactly what these oil men want. Why would oil men want the oil industry to be destroyed?"

Been reading Greg Palast, Gettysburg?

Sounds like it.

No actually. I like Fred Barnes.

"My guess is that cooler heads in Washington will not allow Israel to drag the US into strikes against Syria or Iran."

I'm not convinced that there are any "cooler heads" in Washington who actually have the POWER to do that. If you add up the Israeli influence, and the influence of people in the oil and military-industrial complex corporations, and the neocons as well, I'd say there aren't too many "cooler heads" who are in a position to stop Bush from doing whatever he decides to do.

And the Israelis in particular are in a position to ratchet this up beyond any ability of Bush to say "hell, no, we won't go."

If Israel bombs Iran's nuclear facilities in "retaliation" for Iran's alleged supplying of troops to Lebanon to attack Israeli military targets (already alleged in the case of the ship attack), and Iran retaliates as it has promised to do against various targets in the Gulf and possibly US troops in Iraq, how is Bush going to say no?

The ONLY way he can say no is to tell the Israelis to stand down or the US will 1) cut off their aid; 2) support UN resolutions against them; 3) pressure them to stop everything and negotiate.

Anybody see Bush doing any of this in this universe?

I think Bush, the neocons and the Israelis have planned all of this. I think this is HOW they intend to start a war with Iran - not with airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, but with Israeli "defending itself" from Iranian troops in Lebanon.

 Syria's not a charitable organization....

 The Nation points to the illogic of the Bush administration in having pushed Syria out of Lebanon and now demanding that it rein in Hizbullah. If Syria has been reduced to having almost no influence in Lebanon, how exactly would it do that?

{Cole}

 

"Relations between the United States and Israel are crucial to stability in the Middle East, where the road to peace and prosperity continues to be fraught with many obstacles."

DiFi

So should Israel instead retaliate not with hi tech weapons but with the same weapons used by Hizballah; specifically fire rockets aimlessly at Lebanese civillians?

Israel's actions are moving Lebanese society squarely behind Hezbollah

Im not so sure thats so true. Many seem to still blame Hizballah for this mess. I actually just read this Lebanese blogger which i thought was intersting: http://lebanonheartblogs.blogspot.com/2006/07/peace-now.html

Also interesting is the response from Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan - while denouncing Israel have also insisted on putting blame on Hizballah for this mess.


Good point. The idea plays to the notion that Hizballah and Hamas are both totally controlled by Syria and Iran - which has not been established as correct by terrorism experts.

It also downplays the role Israel has taken for itself in this.

Bush is saying the whole thing started with two kidnappings - and that has not been established, either.
People who make that claim are experts at cherry-picking where on the timeline they want to proclaim "they started it."

Especially when it seems that Israel KNEW that kidnappings were in the preparation, yet allowed them to occur - and so incompetently that it was an HOUR in one case and more in the other before Israel even allegedly KNEW that a kidnapping had taken place.

I wouldn't put too much emphasis on that last, but it is slightly suspicious.

The "let it happen" method works well, as I suspect 9/11 indicates.

A necessary consequence of creating a "majority rule" Shia government in Iraq is the need to talk with the Shia. Instead, the temporal (not spiritual) homeland of the Shia, Iran, is confronted with the harshest possible rhetoric.

It seems to me that we took careful aim and shot off our foot. The internal contradictions of our foreign-policy-by-soundbite have had a significant impact on the current mess in the Middle East and rendered us incredible as any sort of mediating influence.

The countries and organizations confronting Israel regard us now as an overt belligerent. I can see their point. These policies have put the US exactly where we haven't wanted to be for more than 50 years: a lukewarm but unamibiguous and unconditional ally of Israel.

A few years from now, we will be having a "Who lost the Middle East?" discussion.

Iran had no reason to start this - but Israel certainly did

I understand that you think Israel is always to blame for everything, but it is naive to think that Hizballah would have done something like this against Iranian interest - which is what you are saying.

Its also illogical - Hizballah launched rockets into israeli towns, infiltrated Israeli territory killed its soldiers and kidnapped more because they wanted to serve Israeli interests? then in furtherance of Israeli interets and against Irans interests they choose to escalate further and launch rockets deep into Israel. So hizballah is actually an agent of the Zionist regime giving it reasons to wage war against Iran and Syria Hizballahs true hidden enemies.

so what do you suggest? Israel should sit back let hizballah fire rockets into its cities, infiltrate its borders, kill soldiers, kidnap more and then say ok we cant wipe you out so lets give up and negotiate? What western nation in the world would act differently than Israel if its cities were attacked by rockets, there territory infilitrated , there soldiers killed and kidnapped?

lh25, did you really miss the point of DeanOR's post or did you just pretend to do so? The fact that the high-tech weaponry that Israel is using to kill came from the US is significant regardless of any consideration as to what they should be doing.

What western nation in the world would act differently than Israel if its cities were attacked by rockets, there territory infilitrated , there soldiers killed and kidnapped?

Nearly all western nations in the world would have acted differently than Israel, lh25. There is such a thing as a proportionate reaction, and Israel's reaction has been anything but that.

I believe this is about Bush being a christian. ( Remember, God chose Bush to be President?)


The Bible tells Christians that Israel is God's chosen nation and to favor it. No matter what. No matter the details of the conflict. No matter who's right and who's wrong. Favor it like a Judge favors the homeowner over the tenant. The Bible teaches when you favor Israel you will be blessed in return.


Pray for the peace of Jerusalem:
"May those who love you be secure.
May there be peace within your walls
and security within your citadels."
For the sake of my brothers and friends,
I will say, " Peace be within you."
For the sake of the house of the Lord our God,
I will seek your prosperity.
(Psalm 122 v6-v9)

So, Bush believes he is obeying God.

The Bible tells Christians that Israel is God's chosen nation and to favor it. No matter what. No matter the details of the conflict. No matter who's right and who's wrong. Favor it like a Judge favors the homeowner over the tenant. The Bible teaches when you favor Israel you will be blessed in return.

If you read through Judges and Kings, whenever God is angry with the Israelites he allows their enemies to defeat them in battle. So, if you're going for an overly literal interpretation of the Bible, that would suggest that in a successful Hizbollah attack on Israel, Hizbollah would be an agent of God's wrath.

The continuation of the current conflict(s) involving Israel serves the Bush adminstration and the Republican Party. They feel no ownership or responsiblity. If they act and are unsuccessful, a very likely outcome, it can be said another failure of Bush. If they sit and do nothing, well, it's not our fight. We certainly told Israel not to over-react.

The continuation and escalation of the conflict through the November elections takes the spotlight off of the deteriorating conditions in Iraq and Afghanistan. It takes the headlines away from Iran and North Korea. It gives the Republican Party a much better chance to define the message voters hear in the upcoming elections.

The number one goal now of Mr. Bush and the Republican Party is to protect the homeland from their enemies -- the Democrats. Staying in power supercedes all other urgent matters. Every action between now and November will be first measured against this.

"This is silence born of over-extension and policy exhaustion.' Besides, I'm not sure Bush ever did have a policy toward Israel and the Palestinians, unless it was some vague hope that the entire world would come into line after we showed in Iraq how American power ruled the world. The "road map" was put forth in the manner of a press release, rather than as part of a policy initiative.

I certainly agree with Josh that those who deplore or defend Israeli conduct of the war flatter Bush by thinking he's up to something. And that's a shame. All past presidents starting with Nixon showed that the one potential escape from the cycle of violence was a sympathetic but not necessarily approving partner in the United States to all parties. (Well, I have to except Reagan, whose status is wildly overrated by most Americans.)

John

http://www.haberarts.com/

How does the book end? (Spoiler alert)


Judges and Kings-that's old testament. What does the last page of the Bible say? In the last book of the Bible, last chapter, what are the names on the 12 gates of the new Jerusalem (Revelation 21:12)? Who is the bride of the lamb?


The only way Bush would change his response to actions by God's chosen nation Israel is for someone to sway him with a biblical argument.

If Israel were REALLY serious about peace with Lebanon they would have done the following. After the Cedar Revolution they would have tried to strengthen the central government. Obvious direct aid would have been counter productive but as a good will gesture they could have given up the Sheba farms. This has been a sticking point in Lebanon amoung all factions.

Jumblatt is the only prominent Lebanese who believe it belongs to Syria. However, even he says that if Syria renounces the territory(which it has) then even Jumblatt says the U.N should revise the Blue Line.

Hezbollah has used this to their great advantage to portray themselves as a "resistence" movement that resonates with Lebanese of different stripes. Of course it is B.S. and Israel is technically correct that it is part of the Golan Heights but that is irrelevent in Mideast politics.

Israel kept the Sheba Farms not out of strategic or military interests but just to stick it in Lebanon's eye and show them "who is boss". It is my belief that had Israel really been interested in peace on their northern border they would have gone out of their way to see that the Cedar Revolution would have flourished. They could have used France as the proxy in this effort.

In summary, what Israel really wants is just to be "left alone" and segregated from the rest of the Mideast. That is impossible and if they really want peace they are going to have to work their ass off in helping their neighbors. It does no good for property values or crime to have the nicest house in the neighborhood when evrything else is going to Hell in a Handbasket.

Don Key,

I’m not saying that if Israel is attacked, they shouldn’t act. They just need to act like grownups.

What does this even mean?  Lebanon has been the only principal party to Resolution 425 allowed to blow off its obligations for the last six years.  How "grownup" is that?  

OTOH, Bush and the Repos are being blamed for the rising gasoline prices, and will be blamed for the concomitant slowdown in the U.S. economy as they continue to rise.

Consequently, inaction is not cost-free in political terms.

I like Joshua Landis's blog, and admire his analyses. But I don't think the US is being "dragged" anywhere by Israel. This is a team operation and Israel is just executing the opening phase. Israel is after Hizbollah, but both countries are after bigger fish: Syria and Iran.

Rhetoric buster,

Nearly all western nations in the world would have acted differently than Israel....

Any examples?

Bush hasn't been silent. He's sent signals every day that he supports what Israel is doing. Throughout his administration, Bush has been consistent on Israel-Palestine. He ignores it as much as possible (I think he thinks it's a losing issue politically). When forced to get involved, he basically supports Israel (politically safest). I don't expect much else from Bush unless the conflict spreads to one of our Arab allies (Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc.). If that happens, Bush may be forced to act more forcefully. Until then, I think he prefers to stay out of the way.

When did the US decide this?

Today's WaPo Headline

Strikes Are Called Part of Broad Strategy

It seems that Israel's actions are supported by the US and are part of a larger 'strategery' between Israel and the US in support of UN Resolution 1559, which calls for Hezbollah to disarm and the Lebanon military to take control of its southern area.

Other reasons include:

For Israel, the goal is to eliminate Hezbollah as a security threat -- or altogether, the sources said. A senior Israeli official confirmed that Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah is a target, on the calculation that the Shiite movement would be far less dynamic without him.

For the United States, the broader goal is to strangle the axis of Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and Iran, which the Bush administration believes is pooling resources to change the strategic playing field in the Middle East, U.S. officials say.

The US says it has the support of conservative Arab states.


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