Whither America?
There is no shortage of things to shudder at and lament in this current spiral of death in the Levant. But what stands out to me right now is the seeming irrelevance and marginality of the United States.
Where is America? Whoever you believe is right or wrong in this mess, I doubt very much that the powers directly involved have the will and ability to de-escalate the situation. Some want to. Others don't. But take the region as a whole and the differences between will, desire and ability fade into insignificance. (Here's an interesting article from the Jerusalem Post on Israel's aims vis a vis the Lebanese government, based largely on an interview with a high-ranking IDF officer.)
Some might say that the Bush administration's silence is acquiescence or approval of the Israeli raids into Lebanon and Gaza. But I think it's more than that. This is silence born of over-extension and policy exhaustion. Thinking back through the 1960s, 70s, 80s, and 90s -- with key crises in each decade -- I don't think there's any example where an American administrtion has so thoroughly marginalized itself or shown such impotence and irrelevance.










Well, you may be right. But somehow I don't think the Cheney Administration is quite done yet. If you take this Israeli action at face value, it is difficult to recall any previous one this self-defeating. They can't bomb Hezbollah into nonexistence (simply can't be done with air power), they don't want to reestablish the buffer zone themselves, and they can't make the Lebanese Government do it for them (because they're incapable of taking on Hezbollah and would rather be pounded by the Israelis than start another civil war). The Israelis aren't even "defending themselves": the rockets are still raining down on northern Israel. So what the hell is this all about? Even resolute anti-conspiracy theorists feel almost compelled to look for something beneath the surface.
July 15, 2006 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with your assessment. But I would widen it to include virtually every facet of governing. I can't see one instance in the years the Bush Administration has been in power where there have been any steps forward either domestically or in foreign affairs.
July 15, 2006 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where is America? Whoever you believe is right or wrong in this mess, I doubt very much that the powers directly involved have the will and ability to de-escalate the situation.
The Bush Administration's silence has been deafening. The most plausible explanation in my mind is they want to see the conflict widen. I can't think of any other reason right now to explain the adminstration's silence. This isn't about supporting Israel or not supporting Israel...it is about Bush and the neocons not being able to recognize the inherent evilness of war. I hate to say it (and I really mean that) but judging by the administration's handling of Katrina, Iraq and now this conflict they don't put much of a value on human life.
July 15, 2006 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is simply insane foreign policy on Israel's part, wholesale impotence on America's part, and an event that is tailored to breed yet another generation of people hating America and Israel.
The world's appetite for reconstructing the same territorial infrastructures must be at its absolute limit. Instead of being able to dedicate humanitarian aid to truly humanitarian causes, the world must once again throew good money after bad into a bottomless pit of hatred and stupidity.
And now that a real crisis exists, Condi Rice can't devide which pair of shoes to wear.
July 15, 2006 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Josh: The Bush administration has painted itself into a corner. It's made it clear it won't talk to Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, Iran. Which means it will talk and listen only to Israel. Hard to exert influence when you've tied your own hands behind your back in this way.
Israel's actions are moving Lebanese society squarely behind Hezbollah (just as US society lined up behind Bush after 9/11). Couldn't shoot itself in the foot in a bigger way.
Olmert has said he won't stop until Hezbo cries uncle. That won't happen. So, without adult supervision (the US knocking heads), it'll be hard for Israel and Hezbo to make any moves that don't entail losing face. Meanwhile, the US is contemplating the undoing of its only success story in the region.
Obviously Iran greenlighted this. You have to give it to the ayatollahs. They could be teaching Diplomacy 101 to the West. They've been running circles around the doofus in the WH.
July 15, 2006 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Back in 2000, when it became glaringly apparent just how utterly unqualified Bush was to hold the office of President, I worried that no one seemed to understand that it was important to have a competent person in that office. When I would mention this to people they seemed to believe that Bush had all of the same qualifications and more that Clinton had. I really expected a disaster if Bush got elected.
Well, now we see that I was correct. Competence doesn't just mean the ability to get tax cuts passed. It also means the ability to appoint capable people to the many federal jobs the President controls, especially the cabinet officers. We don't have those capable people in those offices.
Yes, Condi is an embarassment, at best, but a looming disaster at worst. She fumbled her first job so badly 9/11 was a successful attack on us. How anyone could dream she could handle her current job amazes me.
What ever our country could do to defuse the Middle East situation can't be done with this crew in charge. They really have no idea, nor any obvious interest in how to do that. Beyond plotting to rake in some more billions of dollars for Halliburton and other favored corporations, they seem unable to figure out any way to do any major job. I have yet to see them show any interest in even trying.
We are in for a rough three years ahead.
Hoppy in Sacramento
July 15, 2006 9:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've already said it today in other places, but I'll repeat it here. When the stick's broke and you're out of carrots, there ain't much you can do.
July 15, 2006 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not hearing deafening silence from Bush. I'm hearing him excuse Irael's assault on Lebanon. There is something particularly morally repugnant about high tech air power brutally killing anonymous, defenseless civilians on the ground - whether those civiilians are deliberate targets or "collateral damage". That hi tech weaponry is our gift to Israel, which means we bear a lot of responsibility for this tragedy, especially when BushCo and the world's superpower do nothing to stop it.
July 15, 2006 9:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bush has become a prisoner of his misguided war in Iraq.
Perhaps the most stunning of Bush's miscalculations about the consequences of establishing a "democratic" Iraq was the effect that the toppling Saddam would have on Iran.
His father knew that Iraq, despite the inherently evil nature of its despotic regime, provided a necessary counterweight to the nefarious ambitions of Iran. Yet because the Shiites are the true beneficiaries of the Iraqi war, Iran's influence in the region has been strengthened.
Consequently, Iran has been empowered, not only to move foward in its quest for nuclear weapons, but also to cause its surrogate, Hezbollah, to act more provocatively toward Israel.
To futher complicate matters, Bush, in a cynical attempt to pander to a segment of American Jews in order to peel off a portion of their votes, has had a laissez-faire policy toward Israel.
So Israel, like Iran (although I am drawing no moral equivalence) has been emboldened to push the envelope of their ambitious policy goals.
In effect, Bush has been hoisted on his own petard.
July 15, 2006 10:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that it’s always politics and self-interest with this administration. While the country was in 9/11 shock and on a never-ending terror alert, Bush could play the cowboy. But war and terror fatigue has set in. Iraq blew the image of Cowboy George in a white hat riding into the sunset. If cowboy diplomacy is out, what’s left for these guys?
Remember how weak and fumbling Bush appeared before his Great Warrior façade appeared (pre-9/11)? His real character (and I include his handlers and sycophants here) is shining through again. Besides he showed early on that he was a paper tiger on Israel. Sharon basically punked him when he tried to dictate an easing off of Israeli incursions. Putin just punked him, too. Maybe if he lets things play out, he’ll get another shot at war president with Syria or Iran or at least the threat of war.The administration is quiet but still defending Israel’s every action as witnessed by the veto of the U.N. resolution condemning Israel’s collective punishment strategy. Eight of the last nine Security Council vetoes have been by the U.S. covering Israeli actions. The article from the Jeruselum Post is interesting, as is the one next to it: "'Lebanon can be shut down for years'." I’m not saying that if Israel is attacked, they shouldn’t act. They just need to act like grownups. Without U.S. involvement, Israel is the only real power here and they need to wield it carefully. And, frankly, I don’t know that direct involvement by the WH would lead to any kind of resolution, peaceful or not.
July 15, 2006 10:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's your "policy exhaustion". Whether this mess in the Levant had occured 2, 3, 4,5 years ago doesn't matter. Bush has been toady to Israel since he took office. And demonstrably its puppet (if any want to extend remarks I'd be delighted!).
But that statement above by Dianne Feinstein, my dear Likudnik Senator, tells you everything you need to know about US "policy exhaustion". I should also add that I do not think that one's position on this question is independent of where one stands on the present crisis. For those who support Bush ME policies - especially now - they are delighted
If you'd like to know more about it...
July 15, 2006 11:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
For a good analysis of where Israel is dragging an impotent US adminstration and Lobby conditioned public, Joshua Landis (SyriaComment.com)
Once again, an example of how the Israel Lobby has hijacked US foreign policy. This is, as I've said, all about "Securing the Realm", the last gasp of some very desperate leaders in Israel and the US.
July 16, 2006 12:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hoppy
A deftly written post indeed.
Your argument is correct only if analyzing the policies of the Bush administration in terms of political success or failure.
But politics has always been second, or even third, to this administration. One of the truly unique aspects of this presidency is its absolute blatant disragard for political chivalry. It sniffs at the chess game being played in the smoky parlor and opts instead for a questionable hunting excursion.
Bush and even Cheney are mere pawns on this high-stakes board. The field generals of this campaign are not necessarily Bush, Cheney, or Rove. They are merely the public relations specialists for the true power men, the men of the most economically robust trade in the world, the men of Big Oil.
Al Gore and George Bush agree on one important point. America is addicted to oil. The addiction consumes every aspect of our economy. Everyone, even those who do not drive, are affected by it.
No. Politics was never a game that the Bush administration was ever interested in playing. It was, if you will, the proverbial bypassed soccer game in the United States.
Oil. There is the reason. There is the policy. The men who run the oil run the nation and its government. CEO's, VP's, boardmemebers, etc. Those who say Bush has attempted to create an Authoritarian state are fools. Bush has created an oligarchical society in which a few elites dictate policy.
A war in the Middle East only serves to hurt the oil industry. Yet, that is exactly what these oil men want. Why would oil men want the oil industry to be destroyed? Can you use some didactic logic here...?
July 16, 2006 12:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't agree that Iran "greenlighted" this - not unless somebody such as Amadinejad went behind the mullahs back to do so.
Look at the situation. Iran is under pressure from the UN and the IAEA to freeze its nuclear energy program. They are trying to stall the negotiations and come up with a way to continue negotiations on their terms.
One might suggest they would do something like this to take the nuclear program off the table, but exactly how does that work when Israel is loudly blaming Iran for every detail of this situation - including accusing Iran of supplying hundreds of Iranian troops and weapons into Lebanon and directly attacking Israel? Do you think the Iranians wouldn't have known that was coming?
Iran had no reason to start this - but Israel certainly did. Israel - or at least the Israeli military - has been impatient with the slow progress of the US's attempts to stop the Iranian program - enough to threaten bombing Iran itself several times. Israel could easily see that the path of UN sanctions and the like could take years and wouldn't be effective anyway.
One of the reasons people keep telling me Bush would never attack Iran is because Iran could retaliate against Israel and the US by using Hizballah and Hamas to conduct "asymmetric warfare" in the region.
Well, Israel has already set that in motion. By widening the ME conflict, they get to use Hamas and Hizballah as reasons to attack Syria and perhaps Iran. They get to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities - facilities not set up for atomic bombs, but for Iran's economic future. Israel gets to seriously damage the Syrian and Iranian economies, at the very least. The best outcome from their standpoint would be if Syria and/or Iran engage Israel militarily as well. Then they can drag the US into the war, and sit back, knock out Lebanon and Hizballah, crush Hamas, all the while letting the US destroy Syria and Iran.
Nice. All their enemies done up in one neat bloodstained bundle.
Why would Iran trigger this at this time? It makes no sense to me, either in timing or reasoning. Iran knows it cannot defeat Israel with Hizballah in any real military sense. Iran knows Israel will blame Iran for starting something like this. Iran knows the US will use that against it.
Iran has no motives to start a wider ME war at this time - unless Iran KNEW it was going to be attacked anyway in the very near future. Then I might buy it.
July 16, 2006 12:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
"A war in the Middle East only serves to hurt the oil industry. Yet, that is exactly what these oil men want. Why would oil men want the oil industry to be destroyed?"
Been reading Greg Palast, Gettysburg?
Sounds like it.
July 16, 2006 12:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
No actually. I like Fred Barnes.
July 16, 2006 12:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
"My guess is that cooler heads in Washington will not allow Israel to drag the US into strikes against Syria or Iran."
I'm not convinced that there are any "cooler heads" in Washington who actually have the POWER to do that. If you add up the Israeli influence, and the influence of people in the oil and military-industrial complex corporations, and the neocons as well, I'd say there aren't too many "cooler heads" who are in a position to stop Bush from doing whatever he decides to do.
And the Israelis in particular are in a position to ratchet this up beyond any ability of Bush to say "hell, no, we won't go."
If Israel bombs Iran's nuclear facilities in "retaliation" for Iran's alleged supplying of troops to Lebanon to attack Israeli military targets (already alleged in the case of the ship attack), and Iran retaliates as it has promised to do against various targets in the Gulf and possibly US troops in Iraq, how is Bush going to say no?
The ONLY way he can say no is to tell the Israelis to stand down or the US will 1) cut off their aid; 2) support UN resolutions against them; 3) pressure them to stop everything and negotiate.
Anybody see Bush doing any of this in this universe?
I think Bush, the neocons and the Israelis have planned all of this. I think this is HOW they intend to start a war with Iran - not with airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, but with Israeli "defending itself" from Iranian troops in Lebanon.
July 16, 2006 12:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Syria's not a charitable organization....
"Relations between the United States and Israel are crucial to stability in the Middle East, where the road to peace and prosperity continues to be fraught with many obstacles."
DiFi
July 16, 2006 1:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
So should Israel instead retaliate not with hi tech weapons but with the same weapons used by Hizballah; specifically fire rockets aimlessly at Lebanese civillians?
July 16, 2006 1:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Im not so sure thats so true. Many seem to still blame Hizballah for this mess. I actually just read this Lebanese blogger which i thought was intersting: http://lebanonheartblogs.blogspot.com/2006/07/peace-now.html
Also interesting is the response from Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan - while denouncing Israel have also insisted on putting blame on Hizballah for this mess.
July 16, 2006 1:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good point. The idea plays to the notion that Hizballah and Hamas are both totally controlled by Syria and Iran - which has not been established as correct by terrorism experts.
It also downplays the role Israel has taken for itself in this.
Bush is saying the whole thing started with two kidnappings - and that has not been established, either.
People who make that claim are experts at cherry-picking where on the timeline they want to proclaim "they started it."
Especially when it seems that Israel KNEW that kidnappings were in the preparation, yet allowed them to occur - and so incompetently that it was an HOUR in one case and more in the other before Israel even allegedly KNEW that a kidnapping had taken place.
I wouldn't put too much emphasis on that last, but it is slightly suspicious.
The "let it happen" method works well, as I suspect 9/11 indicates.
July 16, 2006 2:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
A necessary consequence of creating a "majority rule" Shia government in Iraq is the need to talk with the Shia. Instead, the temporal (not spiritual) homeland of the Shia, Iran, is confronted with the harshest possible rhetoric.
It seems to me that we took careful aim and shot off our foot. The internal contradictions of our foreign-policy-by-soundbite have had a significant impact on the current mess in the Middle East and rendered us incredible as any sort of mediating influence.
The countries and organizations confronting Israel regard us now as an overt belligerent. I can see their point. These policies have put the US exactly where we haven't wanted to be for more than 50 years: a lukewarm but unamibiguous and unconditional ally of Israel.
A few years from now, we will be having a "Who lost the Middle East?" discussion.
July 16, 2006 2:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I understand that you think Israel is always to blame for everything, but it is naive to think that Hizballah would have done something like this against Iranian interest - which is what you are saying.
Its also illogical - Hizballah launched rockets into israeli towns, infiltrated Israeli territory killed its soldiers and kidnapped more because they wanted to serve Israeli interests? then in furtherance of Israeli interets and against Irans interests they choose to escalate further and launch rockets deep into Israel. So hizballah is actually an agent of the Zionist regime giving it reasons to wage war against Iran and Syria Hizballahs true hidden enemies.
July 16, 2006 2:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
so what do you suggest? Israel should sit back let hizballah fire rockets into its cities, infiltrate its borders, kill soldiers, kidnap more and then say ok we cant wipe you out so lets give up and negotiate? What western nation in the world would act differently than Israel if its cities were attacked by rockets, there territory infilitrated , there soldiers killed and kidnapped?
July 16, 2006 2:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
lh25, did you really miss the point of DeanOR's post or did you just pretend to do so? The fact that the high-tech weaponry that Israel is using to kill came from the US is significant regardless of any consideration as to what they should be doing.
July 16, 2006 4:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
What western nation in the world would act differently than Israel if its cities were attacked by rockets, there territory infilitrated , there soldiers killed and kidnapped?
Nearly all western nations in the world would have acted differently than Israel, lh25. There is such a thing as a proportionate reaction, and Israel's reaction has been anything but that.
July 16, 2006 4:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I believe this is about Bush being a christian. ( Remember, God chose Bush to be President?)
The Bible tells Christians that Israel is God's chosen nation and to favor it. No matter what. No matter the details of the conflict. No matter who's right and who's wrong. Favor it like a Judge favors the homeowner over the tenant. The Bible teaches when you favor Israel you will be blessed in return.
So, Bush believes he is obeying God.
July 16, 2006 5:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you read through Judges and Kings, whenever God is angry with the Israelites he allows their enemies to defeat them in battle. So, if you're going for an overly literal interpretation of the Bible, that would suggest that in a successful Hizbollah attack on Israel, Hizbollah would be an agent of God's wrath.
July 16, 2006 5:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
The continuation of the current conflict(s) involving Israel serves the Bush adminstration and the Republican Party. They feel no ownership or responsiblity. If they act and are unsuccessful, a very likely outcome, it can be said another failure of Bush. If they sit and do nothing, well, it's not our fight. We certainly told Israel not to over-react.
The continuation and escalation of the conflict through the November elections takes the spotlight off of the deteriorating conditions in Iraq and Afghanistan. It takes the headlines away from Iran and North Korea. It gives the Republican Party a much better chance to define the message voters hear in the upcoming elections.
The number one goal now of Mr. Bush and the Republican Party is to protect the homeland from their enemies -- the Democrats. Staying in power supercedes all other urgent matters. Every action between now and November will be first measured against this.
July 16, 2006 5:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
"This is silence born of over-extension and policy exhaustion.' Besides, I'm not sure Bush ever did have a policy toward Israel and the Palestinians, unless it was some vague hope that the entire world would come into line after we showed in Iraq how American power ruled the world. The "road map" was put forth in the manner of a press release, rather than as part of a policy initiative.
I certainly agree with Josh that those who deplore or defend Israeli conduct of the war flatter Bush by thinking he's up to something. And that's a shame. All past presidents starting with Nixon showed that the one potential escape from the cycle of violence was a sympathetic but not necessarily approving partner in the United States to all parties. (Well, I have to except Reagan, whose status is wildly overrated by most Americans.)
John
http://www.haberarts.com/
July 16, 2006 5:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
How does the book end? (Spoiler alert)
Judges and Kings-that's old testament. What does the last page of the Bible say? In the last book of the Bible, last chapter, what are the names on the 12 gates of the new Jerusalem (Revelation 21:12)? Who is the bride of the lamb?
The only way Bush would change his response to actions by God's chosen nation Israel is for someone to sway him with a biblical argument.
July 16, 2006 6:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Israel were REALLY serious about peace with Lebanon they would have done the following. After the Cedar Revolution they would have tried to strengthen the central government. Obvious direct aid would have been counter productive but as a good will gesture they could have given up the Sheba farms. This has been a sticking point in Lebanon amoung all factions.
Jumblatt is the only prominent Lebanese who believe it belongs to Syria. However, even he says that if Syria renounces the territory(which it has) then even Jumblatt says the U.N should revise the Blue Line.
Hezbollah has used this to their great advantage to portray themselves as a "resistence" movement that resonates with Lebanese of different stripes. Of course it is B.S. and Israel is technically correct that it is part of the Golan Heights but that is irrelevent in Mideast politics.
Israel kept the Sheba Farms not out of strategic or military interests but just to stick it in Lebanon's eye and show them "who is boss". It is my belief that had Israel really been interested in peace on their northern border they would have gone out of their way to see that the Cedar Revolution would have flourished. They could have used France as the proxy in this effort.
In summary, what Israel really wants is just to be "left alone" and segregated from the rest of the Mideast. That is impossible and if they really want peace they are going to have to work their ass off in helping their neighbors. It does no good for property values or crime to have the nicest house in the neighborhood when evrything else is going to Hell in a Handbasket.
July 16, 2006 6:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don Key,
What does this even mean? Lebanon has been the only principal party to Resolution 425 allowed to blow off its obligations for the last six years. How "grownup" is that?
July 16, 2006 6:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
OTOH, Bush and the Repos are being blamed for the rising gasoline prices, and will be blamed for the concomitant slowdown in the U.S. economy as they continue to rise.
Consequently, inaction is not cost-free in political terms.
July 16, 2006 6:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
I like Joshua Landis's blog, and admire his analyses. But I don't think the US is being "dragged" anywhere by Israel. This is a team operation and Israel is just executing the opening phase. Israel is after Hizbollah, but both countries are after bigger fish: Syria and Iran.
July 16, 2006 6:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rhetoric buster,
Any examples?
July 16, 2006 6:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bush hasn't been silent. He's sent signals every day that he supports what Israel is doing. Throughout his administration, Bush has been consistent on Israel-Palestine. He ignores it as much as possible (I think he thinks it's a losing issue politically). When forced to get involved, he basically supports Israel (politically safest). I don't expect much else from Bush unless the conflict spreads to one of our Arab allies (Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc.). If that happens, Bush may be forced to act more forcefully. Until then, I think he prefers to stay out of the way.
July 16, 2006 6:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
When did the US decide this?
Today's WaPo Headline
Strikes Are Called Part of Broad Strategy
It seems that Israel's actions are supported by the US and are part of a larger 'strategery' between Israel and the US in support of UN Resolution 1559, which calls for Hezbollah to disarm and the Lebanon military to take control of its southern area.
Other reasons include:
For the United States, the broader goal is to strangle the axis of Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and Iran, which the Bush administration believes is pooling resources to change the strategic playing field in the Middle East, U.S. officials say.
The US says it has the support of conservative Arab states.
Click here for the Users Help Forum.
July 16, 2006 6:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
When did Olmert visit BushVille?
That's when the plot was either hatched or more properly dictated to the USG
July 16, 2006 6:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you cannot be overly sanguine about the US national leadership, but when it comes to putting blood on the ground for Zion, either cooler heads will prevail or these good folks in Nashville and elsewhere will be heard from and Mr. Rosenberg will really have something to complain, not whine, about.
This mess could wreck the US political system like pus from an erupting boil.
July 16, 2006 6:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
It doesn't feel right, jexster. Why did the US wait so long to announce this when the whole world has been wondering why it was so quiet? This administration is not famous for holding back on a cowboy type of announcement.
Plus, a New York Times article said that
So why would they support the US, as the administration claims, if they think the peace process is DOA?
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July 16, 2006 6:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I like the off the cuff reaction of the CNN anchor this morning when Rice says we aren't calling for a ceasefire and he comments "well aren't they even going to get the Americans out of there".
What did they know and when did they know it? I have an elderly aunt who was in Lebanon a few months ago on a spur of the moment decision to travel with some friends. Is it our government's policy to let Americans wander into harms way and at the same give a green light to whatever collateral damage Israel creates?
Yes, sometimes it's as if they even want Americans killed so they can gin us up for more war.
July 16, 2006 6:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your observations show your bias.
We've had many wars thrust upon us by uncontrollable, unanticipated events or by miscalculation and misunderstanding. It's our fate, our destiny, that of all humanity.
July 16, 2006 7:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
But who is really running the store? Is it Bush and Condi or does Cheney's office have another back alley game with his neocon pals and their ties in the Mideast?
July 16, 2006 7:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry suckers
"Cedar Revolution" just another Bush/Likudnik slogan. They don't any more care about you than about Cpl Shalit or the Palestinians or the Iraqis.
July 16, 2006 7:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
You stated my bias very well except for one small thing.
I anticipated them.
July 16, 2006 7:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wondered the same thing, bluebell. Italy sent a bus and got its nationals and they are already out of there. Britian is sending two ships. The last I saw, the US was considering a mass airlift for 25,000 people. They didn't say what airport they would use to accomplish this.
If, as WaPo suggests, the US is supporting Israel in a combined broad strategy, why didn't they do something before the airport got bombed?
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July 16, 2006 7:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Since it is Sunday, how about a scripture reading to demonstrate my bias and in the fond hope that the "consequences" of Bush's lies will not be visited on us and on our children's children:
July 16, 2006 7:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
The WH is not only silent publicly; as of the 14th Bush had not spoken to Olmert.
Via RawStory:
July 16, 2006 7:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh God save us!!! It's worse than I thought. We've got neocon Newt telling Russert WE are now in WWIII and we have to fight Syria an Iran and Biden saying it's "indirectly our war" and essentially giving Israel a blank check.
Better build your bomb shelters folks. Our government, both parties, is not going to be happy until they have a world war to prove how wicked tough they all are.
July 16, 2006 7:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Or for the less religiously inclined, my bias, a restatement:
July 16, 2006 7:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tony's credible on this one. Bush didn't have to call Olmert, isn't supposed to call Olmert and probably has been instructed not to call Olmert. This was all arranged on Olmert's state visit.
July 16, 2006 7:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, and what do they do when the catch them? If you can catch fish you take them out of the lake. Syria and Iran (and Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, ......) are the LAKE.
July 16, 2006 7:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zionista, as a thoughtful Zionist, do you think there is any way Israel can come out ahead now that its course of "overwhelming retaliation" has been fixed? I have the same sense of impending disater that I had in 2003 when the right-wing Americans/neocons/Bush waltzed us into Iraq. Israel cannot weed out Hezbollah by bombing; if it is really Israeli policy it will require a massive ground presence; does Israel have that capability? Or will it just escalate and attack Syria and Iran hoping to inflict enough pain to force these countries to rein in Hezbollah? I think either of these options is going to be costly, very costly, to Israel. I really do not think this shapes up to be a war like those 30 years ago. There seems to be a much greater determination on the part of Arab/Iranians to cause pain (rather than win battles) than earlier; and in many ways the earlier Hezbollah Israeli conflict and the Iraq conflict have shown how to do it.
July 16, 2006 7:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
All Talk and No Strategy: The limits of diplomacy
http://www.meforum.org/article/976
Another view, another analysis.
I'm not saying it's correct (although I prefer it to anything found on this site). I offer it to show the pressures any administration faces; multiple views backed by extensive analysis, accompanied by hoards of screaming partisans like flies around shit.
This is not science. Nothing in politics is ever conclusively proved, even less so in real time. It's all about judgement calls, instinct, probabilities. We elect those who we think can best do that job and hope that all goes well.
July 16, 2006 7:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
well, it seems to me Bush really does believe one should kill them all and let God sort them out. He has said he is an instrument of God. They White House has weekly Bible readings, for Christ's sake!!! (pun - but true), so I don't know why this is a surprise. The problem is not in that the people in charge are religious zealots, the problem is that rational people ignore the fact that people who hear voices, talk to others in their imagination and feel that something is watching them are actually delusional and would be insane by any other standard than religion.
July 16, 2006 7:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah is a target
This is one story that I wish had not been written. It gives away our hand. It confirms suspicions about the US. If any Palestinian terrorist group was planning any attack against the US, it would be greenlighted because of the info in this article.
July 16, 2006 7:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, that is so. This morning Sibley Telhami the Washington Bureau chief of Al Ahram put it this way. Lebanese are asking: Who put Hezbolla in charge and who gave them the right to bring us to war?
July 16, 2006 7:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
The debate is not over if God exists. The WH, Israel, muslim extremists, and palestinians all know God exists.
The question is whose side is God on?
July 16, 2006 7:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
For they sow the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind...Turning and turning in the widening gyre, the falcon cannot hear the falconer...
I prefer this
"Beware the Jabberwock, my son!
The jaws that bite, the claws that catch!
Beware the Jubjub bird, and shun
The frumious Bandersnatch!"
He took his vorpal sword in hand:
Long time the manxome foe he sought --
So rested he by the Tumtum tree,
And stood awhile in thought.
And, as in uffish thought he stood,
The Jabberwock, with eyes of flame,
Came whiffling through the tulgey wood,
And burbled as it came!
One, two! One, two! And through and through
The vorpal blade went snicker-snack!
He left it dead, and with its head
He went galumphing back.
"And, has thou slain the Jabberwock?
Come to my arms, my beamish boy!
O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!'
He chortled in his joy.
`Twas brillig, and the slithy toves
Did gyre and gimble in the wabe;
All mimsy were the borogoves,
And the mome raths outgrabe.
July 16, 2006 7:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Barbara,
The Israelis have already bombed Nasrallah's headquarters, about a day and a half ago, I believe. Nobody is give away any hand here. The cards are all on the table.
July 16, 2006 8:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Iran is in a tight spot, being UNSC bound and all. Greenlighting this is an effective way of saying to the West: not so fast with sanctions and all, Buster. I can make your life very very miserable.
Syria's message is: I ain't dead yet.
Both messages will prove to be effective.
PS One can argue about Syria. (Though it's almost hilarious to see Bush asking it to use its influence in Lebanon when a few months ago he was asking it NOT to use its influence.) But Iran is the natural dominant player in the region (with Israel): everyone knows that, except the US.
July 16, 2006 8:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
From the same article:
For now, that (diplomacy) is not a viable option to end the current conflict, U.S. officials say. With its diplomacy redefined by the war on terrorism, the Bush administration has opted for a course that plays out on the battlefield.
From your comment:
The US says it has the support of conservative Arab states.
It's a chess game with real people as the pawns. In this case, it seems that the US is a pawn of both the Israelis and the Arabs. Is it win-win or lose-lose? Groups like Hezbollah are mercurial; you try and squash them, and they break apart but still exist. It's too complicated for me to wrap my mind around. In the Mid East, it seems that war is palliative and not curative. I doubt that there is a cure; the best we can hope for is mutual tolerance; mutual acceptance seems to be beyond reach.
July 16, 2006 8:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the link.
Yes, lots of people are mad at Hezbo (for good reasons). But in such situations time always works in favor of the home team. People simply forget who started what and look at the present (like the convoy and the 20 dead).
Alos, Hezbo's prestige is now so big even its enemies in Lebanon (which is about half of the population) will think twice about coming out against it.
July 16, 2006 8:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
When did the US decide this?
This administration has never shown the slightest interest in informing the American public about policy decisions. My guess is that this was decided on inauguration day 2001. And yes, that's my pessimistic curmudgeon.
July 16, 2006 8:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Or rather (pace A. Lincoln) who is on God's side?
July 16, 2006 8:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
A pox on all their houses I say!
I can find nothing in the actions of any of the parties directly involved in the violence in the mideast in any way justified.
I know it will never happen for many reasons, but if the Arab population really wanted concessions from Israel they would organize and conduct a concentrated campaign of nonviolent resistance Gandhi style. But they won't because they are apparently in love with killing. This nonviolent course would necessarily include the loss of life by many Arabs, but that is happening anyway isn't it? Furthermore, the Arabs never make any progress through the use of violence and never have. If they were to adopt massive nonviolent means of protest, forcing the Israeli authorities to either crush and kill them by the thousands or finally dealing with them, then there would be progress. Until that happens we will only see more of the same. I wish the US could simply withdraw entirely from the mideast and let them all kill eachother until there was no one left to kill. While the US has an interest in a stable middle east, their fight is not our fight and whatever happens I favor the US never getting its own military involved in the mess.
July 16, 2006 8:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
VLaszlo,
I could only believe that if I went with the flock, believing that Israel was the only party to the conflict (among principals and interested third parties) that had any influence on its circumstances.
Before Israel's course of "overwhelming retaliation" had been fixed, and since Ehud Barak withdrew Israeli forces from Lebanon in 2000, it has been the diplomatic status quo to relieve Lebanon of its compliance with UN Resolution 425 and allow Hizbollah to run its own shop on the border with Israel:
You are asking the question the wrong way. For Israel, it's not about "coming out ahead." It's about coming out equal -- not in terms of raw military power, but in terms of national legitimacy. How can Israel ever feel confident enough in its security to make the moves everyone demands of it while only three out of 22 member nations of the Arab League and only 4 out of 56 member nations of the Organization of Islamic Conferences even have minimally open diplomatic channels with Israel? This status quo must change before there will be any real stability, let alone peace. But in the meantime, Israel must act like the sovereign nation it is, defending its borders and citizens, even if most of the region denies it.
July 16, 2006 8:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
The linked article is a persuasive cautionary. Nothing is guaranteed in diplomacy (or war).
I am mostly in LJ's camp, feeling that the military actions are responsive to domestic politics more than considered strategy. To be fair to Olmert it's not clear that he could have resisted a vigorous response. Therefore, outside pressure would be necessary to defuse the tension.
So, as asked, where is the US?
July 16, 2006 8:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm puzzled.
The conventional wisdom is that the Lebanese Govt isn't strong enough to dislodge Hezbollah from its priviledged sanctuary by the border. But that the Isrealis are attacking that government to force it to do just that.
One possible explanation is that the Israeli's ( who surely know the true state of Lebanese affairs) real aim is to use the
Lebanese death toll to promote an international demand for outside intervention to do what the Lebanese clearly can't do for themselves .
In short the message they are sending is not to Hezbollah but to us.
Admitting to so calculated a sacrifice of a chosen victim would affront US opinion so Israel would naturally pretend otherwise.
BTW that strategy would be an implicit indication that the Isralies believe(as I do )that Bush's middle east goals (Democracy , Peace) are self contradictory are at least not mutually reinforcing.
I neither claim to believe this theory nor necessarily condemn it. ( My position is that almost anything that stops the killing is good ) . Just trying to understand.
July 16, 2006 8:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
So, as asked, where is the US?
The US is responding to its own pressures.
Given the resistance to a draft and WMD, and budgetary constraints, our options are limited.
My guess is that Bush has decided to let the Israelis slaughter Hezbollah and Hamas - as a "persuasive cautionary" - calculating that he can contain the conflict. That Iran won't intervene directly...and that no Arab state can do anything, or dares to do anything.
Meanwhile the Pakistanis await the coming blow from India.
July 16, 2006 8:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, Zionista, that's a challenge. Canada. Sweden. Germany. The Netherlands. Italy. Portugal.
Note that the question was not which western nations would have done positively nothing but instead which western nations would have acted differently than Israel.
If you need any more examples just ask.
July 16, 2006 8:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Or are we lost out here in the stars?"
July 16, 2006 9:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your frustration is widely shared.
The ME is such a gorgeous part of the world. It could be paradise on earth.
And yet killing seems to be everyone's favorite sport...
PS What you suggest was Intifada I. It proved to be quite effective actually.
July 16, 2006 9:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
From meforum.org: Even President George W. Bush said, "To help calm the situation, we've got diplomats in the region."
Bush sent the ex-con neocon Elliott Abrams, a deputy national security adviser and David Welch, an assistant secretary of state.
Here is another view for you: U.S., Needing Options, Finds Its Hands Tied
Click here for the Users Help Forum.
July 16, 2006 9:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes Bush claims to be Christian and says he has regular conversations with YHWH
SUNDAY SUNDAY
July 16, 2006 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hezbollah is the second most powerful military force in the region. Israel knows it can't defeat it (especially without a land invasion). It wants to cripple it and to teach it a lesson (notice how in the region everyone always wants to "teach lessons" and "send messages").
When Olmert called the kidnapping of the 2 soldiers an act of war he was exactly right.
It's not because Israel withdrew from Lebanon that the war stopped. For Hezbollah, that was just one victory but not the end of the war. It never signed a peace treaty with anyone.
Israel's fundamental mistake (echoed in Rosenberg's post) is to decouple peace with Syria/Iran (via their Hezbo proxy) from the Palestinian issue. The approach has logic on its side. But not history. In the Arab world, the road to peace with the West passes through Ramallah.
I wonder how much more suffering it'll take for Israel to understand that.
July 16, 2006 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm reposting excerpts of an article "The Rules of the Game" by Daniel Sobelman of Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies written in 2004. I find Sobelman's analysis to very useful in understanding the context of the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah since Israel withdrew from Lebanon in 2000, and his warnings to be very prescient.
July 16, 2006 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is sarcasm and/or satire, isn't it? Can you think of a single Palestinian or Hezbollah leader who is NOT a target? The Israeli policy of targeted assassinations is hardly a state secret!
July 16, 2006 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
July 16, 2006 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Two very good links on the domestic aspects
I just had CNN on background noise and a voice I didn't recognize was going on about how Syria and Iran were becoming increasingly isolated not only the world at large but in the Middle East.
"Who is this idiot?" I axed myself
Dan Bartlett..
now on mute
July 16, 2006 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
"It's about coming out equal -- not in terms of raw military power, but in terms of national legitimacy."
You (and I) worry about this question. I see no evidence that this is any longer a major concern amongst the high Israeli government officials and their foreign policy thinkers. I think they have moved towards the conviction (quite like Cheney) of creating their own reality independent of the other actors and the vehicle by which this will be achieved is overwhelming force. Clearly I think this is a serious mistake and they may be misunderstanding some of the changes since they last fought on this scale. Let me ask you another question. We have seen the orgasmic delight in the West over the successful decoupling of Syria-Lebanon. Why was there so little comment at that time both here and in Israel, and if you'll allow me, in Zionist circles, for the enforcement of this resolution at that time?
"Israel must act like the sovereign nation it is, defending its borders and citizens, even if most of the region denies it." Of course there are a wide range of possible responses to a provocative act (and many can be forceful and still be proportionate) and a country's actions and its moral claims get judged by the choices it makes. I do not think this was the only action Israel could have taken; in the end I think the choice to exercise such force in the current circumstance is a serious mistake.
July 16, 2006 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
JL25,
In my opinion, Hizbollah is always going to be a thorn in Israel's side until a comprehensive regional peace agreement is reached between Israel and its Arab neighbors, including Syia. As long as the Arab-Israeli conflict continues, and as long as Hizbollah maintains the overwhelming support of Lebanon's Shiites, Hizbollah will sucessfully resist international and domestic demands to disarm. Nor will Israel be able to destroy Lebanon.
Obviously, this is very troubling to Israelis, since Hizbollah a radical Islamic group ideologically committed to the destruction of Israel. The question is, does Hizbollah's actual military operations match its ideology?
In my post above, I quoted from a piece by Daniel Sobelman of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University. Sobelman argues that Hizbollah's radical ideology notwithstanding, Hizbollah has followed a very restrained policy since Israel's departure from Lebanon - a "tactical skirmish-counter skirmish mold". He makes a convincing case that Israel can minimize Hizbollah's threat if Israel agrees to play by "the rules of the game."
http://www.bitterlemons-international.org/previous.php?opt=1&id=57#233
July 16, 2006 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
It was news to me that Israel is not acting alone. That this is part of a plan with the US. That the cries of the US asking Israel to 'use restraint' are feigned protestations spoken with a forked tongue.
July 16, 2006 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not to be paranoid, but is it not possible that the apparent shocking lack of engagement of the Bush Administration may in fact be a purposeful effort to conceal their true involvement and ulterior motives in this situation? I'm just asking.
July 16, 2006 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
From the Jerusalem Post article that Josh linked:
"The high-ranking military official rejected US President George W. Bush's statement that Syria could and should influence Hizbullah to stop its rocket attacks and release the two soldiers who were kidnapped last week.
"The Syrians are not the key to the solution," he said. "In 1996 they were, now they are not." "
Loosely translated: "George, you don't know diddley."
July 16, 2006 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Israel's problem is that it manages to routinely punish those who have nothing whatever to do with any prior bad acts against Israel.
Just heard Israel killed 5 Canadians vacationing in Lebanon.
July 16, 2006 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rhetoric buster,
No Katyusha rockets have landed on Canada lately. I know of no recent violations of the Portugese border, and to my knowledge there are no German soldiers being held hostage anywhere today. Without comperable circumstances, these are all less examples than exercises in hollow speculation.
July 16, 2006 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
By whom?
Oh. Nevermind.
July 16, 2006 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
VLaszlo,
There was....
From Dan Gillerman, Israeli UN Ambassador, to Secretary General and President of the UN Security Council, November 22, 2005:
July 16, 2006 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
The government of the US impotent puppets on the Zionist Lobby's strings while Israel is holding the most dangerous blank check since Kaiser Wilhelm II's draft payable to Franz Josef.
That check expires 2 1/2 years from now. Israel is making hay while the sunshines and the whole world is going to pay, starting with the Good Ole USA.
And Dianne Feinstein's worried about flag desecration!
July 16, 2006 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Straw man arguments don't work against me, and you have apparently forgotten lh25's original question: What western nation in the world would act differently than Israel if its cities were attacked by rockets, their territory infilitrated, there soldiers killed and kidnapped?
lh25 asked would act differently, not has actually acted differently under comparable circumstances. If you didn't want me give examples of western nations that obviously would not have reacted with Israel's wildly disproportionate level of violence you should not have asked.
Spain. France. Switzerland. Belgium. Iceland. Austria. Let me know if you need any more examples.
July 16, 2006 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, but yours is a loaded question, sort of...I mean you're not going to find a replication of the situation Isreal now face anywhere at any time. It's unique, in other words. So the question then becomes are their any instructive examples out there in history that could apply.
I'm thinking of the old Iranian hostage crises. Invading Iran was always an option for those long days, or even punishment attacks and so on. But, clandestine rescue was attempted, and diplomacy. I don't want to get into all the details (which I don't know, anyway). But I think it's a meaningful example.
My guess is that Israel, which is expertly experienced in hostage/prisoner swaps, it taking this course because it perceives that Hamas and Hezbollah are emboldened by the situation in Iraq - which is easy to see as a bunch ofr rag-tag insurgents holding a superpower at bay. Additionally, the see relatively weak governments such as Syria and Lebanon unable to control Hezbollah. In that light, "overreaction" on Israel's part might not be an appropriate description.
Neoboho
July 16, 2006 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
That'll teach Hezbollah to violate the Blue Line.
July 16, 2006 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Palestinians could have had there own state many times since 1947. I when the Palestinians will understand that no number of killing of Israelis will drive Jews out of Israel. Or do you think whether joining of the 1967 War or either of the Intifadas or general killing of Jews is all right for the Palestinians?
I wonder when the American Left will come to be honest with itself and the world.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
July 16, 2006 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am confused. The U.S. has been firing missiles at Israel from Gaza and Lebanon? It was Bush who ordered the kidnapping and murder of the Israeli soldiers?
Americans are patrolling the Mexican border with guns because Mexicans want to come to work for Amerians who want them. I wonder if missiles were coming from Mexico how long Mexico would continue its existence.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
July 16, 2006 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
You don't agree? And you know this because? The Prime Minister of Lebanon seems to think so as does the Saudis. I relize anti-Semites like you only know certain things.
Iran has lots of reasons to start this. Particularly as Russia and China are no longer talking about sanctions against Iran are they?
The murder of Jews is of no consequences to dispicable people like you I know but what Israel has been firing missiles on themselves, they kidnapped their own soldiers and murdered them too?
Daniel A. Greenbaum
July 16, 2006 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
It will be interesting to see how Bush's ineptitude and weakness will effect the coming elections. It will also be intersting to see how the hostility, to the point of indiference to Jews being killed by Arabs, affects Democrats. Outside the precincts of places like TPMCafe there is no doubt identification with Israel in their fight against terrorists and support for their protecting themselves. Probably many Americans remember that it was Hezbollah that killed 241 Marines in Lebanon.
The question will be will the Democrats get pulled to sellout Israel and look the other way at the murder of Jews, and thus start their poll numbers heading back down? Or will Democrats ignore blogs like this one and go after Bush for being so weak? Or has Bush so weakened the Republicans that nothing can save the them this November? It will be interesting to see if Lieberman will make a comeback due to the pro-terrorist stance of many on the far left.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
July 16, 2006 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I take offense. I know many people on the so-called "American Left" that don't condone killing of Israelis. In fact, I'd say pretty much all the people I know on the "American Left" find what Palestinian militants are doing appalling. Sure there are some who want to see Israel destroyed, but they are in the minority, much as there are, on the right, a minority who want all Palestianians destroyed.
It's comments like this one that prevent dialogue from happening. Rather than ceding to the extreme factions on both sides, we should cultivate the middle ground. Most people around the world seem to want peace, not death. The extremists on both sides (whether they live in the ME or not) are the ones preventing peace from happening.
I think it's time to grow up. But I doubt that will happen any time soon.
July 16, 2006 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
And let's not forget that Syria took the iniative to share intelligence with the US early on in the GWOT, only to be rebuffed by the Bush Administration. That intelligence would have included Hezbollah, of course, which the Syrian Government fears and thus panders to. Syria would like nothing more than to have Bush's assassins take out Hezbollah leader, as long as Syria could deny that it had anything to do with it.
Neoboho
July 16, 2006 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah yes, the peaceful, nonviolent, Intifada I. The very picture of Gandhiesque, non-violent resistance.
Back in the real world, we remember it as the Palestinians making do with stones only because they did not have access to guns.
The fact is that if the Palestinians had conducted TRUE non-violent resistance, and focused on sit-ins, peaceful demonstrations and rhetoric that spoke of a desire for peace, there would have been overwhelming pressure WITHIN ISRAEL to make peace. Those of us who remember 1993 and the famous handshake on the White House lawn know that Israel bet on peace even when the other side was headed by a corrupt, homicidal criminal named Yasir Arafat. Imagine if it had been headed by a Gandhi or a Mandela. Never underestimate the power of Jewish guilt.
For 70 years, the Arabs have chosen violence against Jews and have NEVER spoke directly to Jews and told them they want peace. They aren't about to start now.
July 16, 2006 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Pro-terrorist stance of those on the left"?
"indifference to Jews being killed by Arabs"?
What the hell are you talking about?
July 16, 2006 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure I'm with you on that, John. I keep trying to achieve that magical theoretical space of the big picture (discursive sartori?) and I keep getting flashes of desperation emanating out of D.C. You know, this morning CNN announced that Russia has (overnight, it seems) re-achieved superpowerdom. What's behind that? In the follow-up CNN flashed by a byte about energy.
Read this interesting piece by Pepe Escobar in the Asia Times.
Russia and Iran Lead the new energy game
In my mind the significant aspect of the story is that this is a first - and energy deal of great magnitude that totally dismisses any US participation.
This is exactly the opposite development that was expressed in the PNAC Hegemon document. In fact, since Bush stumbled into the Oval Office the objectives expressed in PNAC have failed, one by one by one. I'm not saying that PNAC is the end-all document which defines Bush's foreign policy (or predicts the same), but I do think it is a reasonable statement about the administrations goals and desires.
So I reason that this has enhanced the treasure-value of an attack on Iran. I further reason that the conflagration which is now being staged is important groundwork to that goal. I would even speculate that the ordinace launched against Iranian nuclear infrastructure will accidentally land on Iran's gas fields.
I know, I know...my tinfoil hat is around here somewhere.
Neoboho
July 16, 2006 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unless you choose to believe some stupid claptrap about "chosen people", the murder of Jews is no less and no more despicable than the murder of anyone else. So far we have about 14 Israelis murdered by Hezbollah and some 120 Lebanese murdered by Israel. An independent observer might be wondering what exactly makes the Israelis think they're the good guys.
July 16, 2006 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's amusing.
How many UN resolutions has Israel ignored in the last fifty years?
How many others were torpedoed by lone US vetos?
I don't know the numbers myself, but I've read they are considerable. No doubt a Google would find the exact figures.
Now Israel wants the UN to disarm Hizballah for it? Bu committing UN - read: US - troops into Lebanon?
Dream on. Although I can see Bush doing that under the excuse that he has to get thousands of US citizens out of Lebanon before Israel kills them...
What's wrong with this picture?
July 16, 2006 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, when you've got Newt on MTP talking about WWIII as if it was a Sunday afternoon golf game and Biden going along you don't even need the tinfoil.
July 16, 2006 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I said nothing of the sort.
As the recent LA Times article specified, Hizballah CAN AND HAS acted unilaterally, not on orders from Iran, on occasion. They have also presumably acted on orders from Iran on occasion.
There is NO evidence that Iran ordered the specific Hizballah kidnapping which the Israelis are using as the excuse to attack Lebanon.
And now we read - from official sources in the US and elsewhere - that, yes, indeed, Israel is USING this kidnapping to further strategic objectives in the ME.
Money quote:
"Israel, with U.S. support, intends to resist calls for a cease-fire and continue a longer-term strategy of punishing Hezbollah, which is likely to include several weeks of precision bombing in Lebanon, according to senior Israeli and U.S. officials.
For Israel, the goal is to eliminate Hezbollah as a security threat -- or altogether, the sources said. A senior Israeli official confirmed that Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah is a target, on the calculation that the Shiite movement would be far less dynamic without him.
For the United States, the broader goal is to strangle the axis of Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and Iran, which the Bush administration believes is pooling resources to change the strategic playing field in the Middle East, U.S. officials say."
Allegedly these objectives are limited to getting rid of or weakening Hizballah.
I submit that it remains to be seen exactly what these objectives are.
"By their actions ye shall know them."
I TOLD you people this was PLANNED. Now it has been confirmed.
July 16, 2006 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Iran is NOT "in a tight spot".
The UNSC referral is insignificant compared to the threat against Iran by Israel and the US of a military attack.
How you can conflate the two in severity is beyond me.
What is the UNSC going to do to Iran? Impose sanctions? What sanctions? Russia and China agreed to REFER Iran to the UNSC. Do you think Russia and China will AGREE to SANCTIONS? You're living in a dream world. Both countries have consistently opposed any sanctions and will continue to do so.
Meanwhile, Israel is directly threatening Syria with military action and has already attacked a target on the Syrian border near the Syrian military, and accused Iran of supplying troops and weapons to Hizballah. Iran KNOWS Israel would do this if they deliberately inflamed Israel.
Iran would not do this while they are still trying to defuse the "nuclear weapons" issue.
It makes no sense.
July 16, 2006 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree you are confused.
July 16, 2006 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Particularly as Russia and China are no longer talking about sanctions against Iran are they?"
On the contrary, Russia and China agreed to have the Iran issue referred back to the UNSC (which, by the way, is basically illegal according to the IAEA Charter, but that's another issue.)
They HAVE NOT agreed to support imposing sanctions on Iran. And they won't, as they have consistently said, and as they have no motivations to do so.
That is a step removed from the referral process.
Since YOU only know certain things - mostly Zionist propaganda - it doesn't surprise me that you don't know this.
July 16, 2006 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. Good rephrasing.
July 16, 2006 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's what I meant. I agree that UN sanctions will be meaningless (the Iranian foreign minister will have to cancel his trip to Disneyland).
July 16, 2006 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
1) You don't "announce" that you're going to start another illegal war in the ME. As Magneto put it in "X-Men 3" - "They never talk about it. They just DO it."
2) The Arabs states don't support this nonsense. That is Bush propaganda.
July 16, 2006 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not sarcasm/satire. It was a state secret that the Bush Administration has agreed to stand by and let Israel bomb away. So, that Hezbollah and Hamas may be taken out.
BTW. It's the U.S. coming up with terms like Syriana to describe a MIddle East reshaped to our vision. (It was embarrassing explaining this term to the Syrians who just moved in next door.)
July 16, 2006 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love your forensics Dan. Keep killing children with em. Poor Cpl Shalit, so cute, such canon fodder for Butcher of Beruit II.
July 16, 2006 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I prefer the "Blazing Saddles" quote: "Or are we just jacking off?"
July 16, 2006 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know Daniel, Israel has stuck itself in the middle of hundreds of millions of Arabs and they are tied to a billion more Muslims by culture.
How many of them is Israel going to kill? You are fighting the map. They aren't going away either and there are a lot more of them.
And while you are deploring the death of 12 Israeli civilians and 9 Israeli soldiers, Israel has killed 104 Lebanese and 8 Canadian tourists.
When are you going to be honest with yourself?
July 16, 2006 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Democracy in this country died with the Lobby's War on Iraq. A great humnanitarian plan gone bad eh Daniel.
Fraud
July 16, 2006 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's back!
July 16, 2006 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder when the American Left will come to be honest with itself and the world.
Stop shoveling the bullshit. When is Israel going to get honest about its intentions? Treating another like dogs while reciting homilies about, "...never again..." Never again applies to all of humanity in my book.
I hate the fact that the word Peace is so sullied as to be mentioned in thevile context of the Middle East. The Left did not start nor participate in the tsunami of lies that ALL dialogues about the Middle East are.
If there's an atom of truth to be found anywhere concerning the issue then present it but stop delivering your buckets of blood to the doorstep of the left, it does belong here.
July 16, 2006 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
"For 70 years, the Arabs have chosen violence against the Jews... "
Yes, and after 70 years the Jews are still overwhelmingly outnumbered by Arabs. So what do you think is going to happen in the next 70 years to change the demographics of that problem?
July 16, 2006 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
The two parts you left out are interesting enough that I include them here:
"Today, Hizballah enters public and official discourse in Israel within two contexts. The first is the organization's penetration into the Palestinian arena. Until recently Hizballah tried to maintain an opaque facade, but it now confirms the existence of a special unit devoted to bolstering the Palestinian intifada. Israeli intelligence maintains that up to 80% of Palestinian violence this year has been either financed or directed by Hizballah. It is always difficult to corroborate such intelligence claims independently; however, the buildup of Hizballah's image of deep involvement in terror activity against Israel cannot be dismissed. This association with the Palestinian theater could unravel the status quo at the northern border.
The second, and equally disturbing context in which Hizballah is significant pertains to scenarios of an Israeli clash with Iran, possibly following an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. In such a case Israel might expect an Iranian response in the north via Tehran's Shiite proxy."
So here we see him acknowledge BOTH possible scenarios - a Hizballah action on the northern border, AND a Hizballah reaction based on an Israeli strike on Iran.
And what I find interesting is the likelihood that the scenarios have been swapped around by Israel:
1) Israel allows - or merely uses - a Hizballah attack on the northern border.
2) Israel uses that attack to justify an attack on Iran.
3) The Iranian response forces the US into the war.
4) Israel wraps up Hamas and Hizballah and Syria while the US attempts to destroy Iran.
5) Result: total "victory" for Israel over all its enemies in one swoop - at the cost of a few Israeli civilians, a few hundred Israeli soldiers - and thousands of US soldiers lives, scores of thousands of Palestinian, Lebanese and Syrian lives, and hundreds of thousands of Iranian lives.
Except, of course, it won't exactly go like Israel envisions...
July 16, 2006 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Honest is as Honest Does Daniel
Daniel lies exposed
Chutzpah right?
July 16, 2006 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder how closely Solberman was references Renoir's "The Rules of the Game"? What knocked out the legitimacy of the social fictions being played out at the Chateau was the slaughter of the rabbits - perhaps the most piognant moment in the history of cinema.
In Vietnam I accidentally met a French Mother Superior who just looked at my eyes, all the way through my head, and said - out of the clear blue - "If they really understood what they were doing they wouldn't do it!"
Neoboho
July 16, 2006 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
While this official was trying to say that Lebanon is the key (Hah!), in fact the obvious interpretation is that Iran is the key.
The entire scenario is aimed at taking out Syria AND Iran AND Hamas AND Hizballah - and possibly even the entire Palestinian population.
July 16, 2006 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is the kind of arithmetic that makes me gag.
Nobody is being "murdered". There's a war on. People are killed during a war. You're not punished when you kill someone in wartime. That's what's supposed to happen, the modus operandi of war. This war is an old one - it began around 1910 or 20 - and it won't end soon.
The Israelis must kill their enemies at the rate or 20 or 50 to 1. Otherwise they'll lose. An independent observer might be wondering what exactly makes the Israelis think they're the good guys.
A truly independent observer would wonder why some moron would ask such a question. The object of war is to win, to get your way, what you want. If you don't think you should win, that you have the right to win...then you won't.
Moron. Idiot. Fool
July 16, 2006 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I'm worried about Canadians, who share a border with the great state of Minnesota and never cause us any trouble except for the occasional dispute over walleye. They must have lost almost as many tourists to Israel as they've lost in battle since WWII.
July 16, 2006 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Daniel: Are you implying that Palestinians are little more than would be Jew killers and that the American left is complicit in not recognizing that "fact" ?
That's offensive, indeed.
July 16, 2006 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought tinfoil was a protective device...from the likes of Newt.
An aside: some years ago I was going through the image database of some college, and all these pics of various animals were organized neatly like "birds" "mammels" "fish" "reptiles". When I opened "reptiles" there were "snakes" "lizards" "turtles" etc. When I opened "Newt" in the "Lizards" directory, guess who's picture was there? Cracked me up - clever college kids.
Neoboho
July 16, 2006 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Relations between the United States and Israel are crucial to stability in the Middle East, where the road to peace and prosperity continues to be fraught with many obstacles. In this regard, Congress has placed considerable importance on the maintenance
July 16, 2006 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would say that they can act with calm deliberation and respect for other peoples. If a man attacks you, even in the never-ending tit-for-tat of tribal war, you go after that man, not his family or his countrymen. As a start, perhaps they could stop incarcerating, starving, and blowing up children. But, no, you are right. Israel cannot act rationally here. I do think they understand the concept of acting “grown up” or responsible quite well, though. They choose what they do.
July 16, 2006 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nothing at all. So what's your point?
July 16, 2006 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Moron. Idiot. Fool
You forgot anti-semitic or is it implied these days?
July 16, 2006 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
You forgot anti-semitic
Nah...
His post was just plain stupid. Lots of people argue at this level - pro-zionist, pro-palestinian, it doesn't matter. Stupid is stupid.
July 16, 2006 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
- US-USSR Cold War: This may seem odd, as there was no major direct combat -- the closest probably was Cuba -- there were any number of skirmishes and there were significant proxy war. Last year, I visited the NSA Museum (open to the public and highly recommended) there was a hall of exhibits commemorating reconnaissance aircraft and shps destroyed or damaged by the Soviets. Soviet supplies and advisors were present in direct adveraries such as North Korea and North Vietnam, and were, at various times, the suppliers of client states.
- Failed States: At times, the areas bordering Israel are behaving somewhat like Somalia or the former Yugoslavia, although they may simultaneously have some level of central government.
- Northern Ireland: Probably having some workable ideas, although the level of violence never approached Israel-Palestine.
- Sri Lanka? Iffy. The two sides have reduced violence and have had political discussions, but the talks are stalled. As Churchill said, "it is better to jaw, jaw, than to war, war." I hope they will work it out, and if they do, send some of their diplomats to the Middle East
Not exhaustive, but perhaps informative.--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
July 16, 2006 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink