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Israel Takes A Stupid Pill

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Apparently not content to let the U.S. do a self-immolation act in the Middle East by itself, Israel decided to set itself on fire by invading Lebanon. Burn baby burn? Like George Bush, Israel's Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, never served in a combat unit and launched military operations without thinking the matter through. In fact, Olmert reportedly never even served in the military. I raise this because there is one simple question Israel cannot answer about the current operations--what is their strategic military objective. Olmert has somehow persuaded the Israeli military to ignore strategy, think tactically, and in the process become really stupid. The events in the next several weeks will expose as myth the canard that you can secure a nation by killing terrorists. No you can't.

Killing "terrorists" has a place in policy but it is not a strategic military obective. It is a tactical objective and may serve political purposes, but achieves little in terms of securing Israel. Israel is attacking targets in Lebanon like a drunken sailor in a bar fight. Flailing about, causing significant damage, hitting innocent bystanders, and generally making a mess of things. This is not the Israeli military that pulled off the brilliant and daring raid at Entebbe.

What about Hamas and Hezbollah?

They are not terrorists. They carry out terrorist attacks, but they are not terrorists. They are something far more dangerous. They are fully functioning political, social, religious, and military organizations that use terrorism tactics, but they are far more formidible than terrorist groups like Al Qaeda or the Basque Terrorist Organization. They do have the resources and the personnel to project force, sustain operations, and cannot be easily defeated. Unlike the Egyptian and Syrian armies in 1973, Hamas and Hezbollah will not easily fold and cannot be defeated in a seven day war. If that is the assumption among some Israeli military planners it is a crazy fantasy.

While most folks in the United States buy into the Hollywood storyline of poor little Israel fighting for it's survival against big, bad Muslims, the reality unfolding on our TV screens shows something else. Exodus, starring Paul Newman, is ancient history. Hamas and Hezbollah attacked military targets--kidnapping soldiers on military patrols may be an act of war and a provocation, but it is not terrorism. (And yes, Hezbollah and Hamas have carried out terrorist attacks in the past against Israeli civilians. I'm not ignoring those acts, I condemn them, but we need to understand what the dynamics are right now.) Israel is not attacking the individuals who hit their soldiers. Israel is engaged in mass punishment.

How did Israel respond? They bombed civilian targets and civilian infrastructure and have killed many civilians. Let's see if I have this right. The Arab "terrorists" attack military units, destroy at least one tank, and are therefore terrorists. Israel retaliates by launching aerial, naval, and artillery bombardments of civilian areas and they are engaging in self-defense. If we are unable to recognize the hypocrisy of this construct then we ourselves are so enveloped by propaganda and emotion that, like the Israelis, Hezbollah, and Hamas, we can't think rationally. We can only think in terms of tribalism and revenge.

Iran, meanwhile, is sitting in the catbird's seat. They have a well-trained and highly competent surrogate force in Hezbollah. Hezbollah's successful attack on Friday on an Israeli naval vessel is a reminder that Hezbollah is not a bunch of crazy kids carrying RPGs and wearing flip flops. I would be willing to wager that at least one Iranian military advisor was helping Hezbollah launch the missile that hit the Israeli ship. But Iran is doing more than simply engage in tit-for-tat. They are thinking strategically.

The events unfolding in Iraq and Lebanon are going Tehran's way. The United States is being portrayed in the world media as someone who tolerates and excuses attacks on civilian populations. The perception becomes the reality and the ability of the United States to rally support among the Russians, the Chinese, and even the French becomes more impaired. We need the international community to deal effectively with nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran. Now, we will be bogged down trying to defend Israel from an angry international community.

In the past, the United States had enough credibility on both sides and kept enough of a distance during these blood fueds so that we could intervene and prevent the fighting from escalating into a gigantic war. It appears that there is no one in the Bush Administration who can step up and intervene to calm the situation. Hell, with John Bolton and Elliot Abrams leading the charge, we are Israel's enablers.

Former Senator Fred Thompson played a U.S. Navy Admiral in the Hunt for Red October. While speaking about escalating tensions as the United States and the Soviet Union chased a renegade submarine, he said:

This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it.

Those words are relevant today. Let's hope and pray they don't come to pass.


196 Comments

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I, for one, welcome a region wide Middle Eastern war. It only serves to help the United States.

Carefull Larry if you criticize Isreal Rosenberg will show up to call you ant anti semite who should join the Aryan Nations.

Good post, Larry
How about another one recommending a sane Israeli strategy?

I think there is actually some strategic thinking going on here, but it is not necessarily deep and grounded

Hezbollah is problematic to Israeli planners; they would like to see it removed from the border area and delegitimized as a political force in Lebanon; being to tight with Syria and Iran and too hostile.

Since the anti-Hezbollah political factions in Lebanon are weak and weary, Israel seeks to coerce them and also bolster them, into taking transformative action.
For example, a settlement could include a taking over of the border area by Lebanese govt forces, which means withdrawal of Hezbollah, and guarantees (carrot & stick) by Israel dissuading potential attackers of those govt forces.

Along the way to this sort of solution, if Syria and/or Iran get an enhanced bad-guy public image, then that also would please Israeli planners.

This parallels roughly the strategy in Gaza and West-Bank
Which is to promote an outcome where Hamas has been delegitimized politically, and the nexus of military/police force for Palestinians has moved back towards Fatah, PLO, etc.

What these strategies miss are 2 things.

For one, such transformations of power structures require a massive, long-term investment and are not accomplished by week-long mini-wars, unless all the tides of history are with you at that moment (which they are not).

Second, they are vying against a different model of power which is more nationalistic and national-community-based than factional.

Most Palestinians are not hard-core militants and activists of any faction; neither are most Lebanese.
They follow the leadership of factions in order to secure better outcomes for themselves; like strength, prosperity, security, services, connectivity, a future.

When you attempt to destroy the faction in these marginally developed areas, you are attacking the infrastructure of peoples' lives, with nothing left to replace the loss.
The UN can be called upon to ship in supplies, but that is different than the web of life provided by these social (and militant) movements.
It can take years to build an alternative.

So, again this type of transformation is not really viable unless history has brought some alternative movement and network close to the surface. One which embraces the ethnic and religious groups in question, that is a 'safe' choice for people.

Because of the history of Fatah/PLO leadership, people in Palestine wanted a change, they are weary of the past.
So, although they technically exist as an option, they would need to be reborn as something new.
Sadly, the agreement to join with Hamas in supporting documents pertaining to peace was perhaps the early point of such a birth.

Similarly in Lebanon; a replacement for Hezbollah must grow organically, and including them in the political process more and more tightly is probably the best way to grow that.

Strangely, and counter-intuitively, these types of attacks may bring greater unity of a sort in Palestine and Lebanon, which though being problematic in being anti-Israel, may be useful in eliciting more coherent national visions for those areas, and thus ultimately help produce neighbors which are more predictable and easier to relate with.
Still, it would be better to walk forward, open-eyed into the future, rather than being dragged forwards in a crazy fashion.

Sorry, but I have to call you an idiot. You obviouslly know nothing and from what I gather you dont care much for Jews. Let me go further and maybe you need and example: If Mexicans crossed the border and killed and kidnaped Texas police officers and demanded the release of Mexicans in US jails and the Mexican Goverment approved the action.....

If Mexico launched missles daily into the USA....

Please think before you write

First of all...you are all morons...and the idiot who wrote this article never lived in Israel so dont write anything about Olmert!! and i bet if your family was killed by a suicide bomber you would then change your view that Hamas is actually a terrorist group!!

Ruso you are the only smart guy here so thanks...the rest of you can just go to hell.

Part of Israel's overreaction might be to make people forget about the IDF's spectacular screwups of the last few days:

o The capture of Gilad Shalit

o The capture of two soldiers by Hezbollah plus the deaths of 3 others in the same operation. (Something Hezbollah had warned it would do for months.)

o Falling into a trap that led to the destruction of a tank and the deaths of all 4 of its occupants.

o "Forgetting" to turn on the detection/deflection system on one of its most advanced warships.

Is "heck of a job" Brownie running the IDF?

Ruso,
You will need to contact the Holocaust Museum and tell them to remove my name as a lifetime contributor. C'mon, waving the "anti-semite" flag is complete bullshit. Deal with the substance of the piece. A careful, intelligence reader would come to the conclusion that I'm saying Israel is shooting itself in the foot. This has nothing to do with Judaism. Grow up.

Then you're an idiot=)

For one who makes such sweeping statements, after less than 30 minutes as a member, you aren't getting off to a great start in reasoned conversation. Idiots, by psychological definition, can't write, so claiming a writer, misguided or not, is an idiot is a contradiction in terms.

You obviouslly don't spell well, and your grammar could use a bit of work. Let me go further and maybe you need and example...whoops, that was an example!

It might help to learn the difference of capabilities between missiles and light to medium artillery rockets, starting with the recognition that missles is an...interesting spelling.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

Thanks israeili-girl for making my point. Your hysterical, emotional, over reaction and misrepresentation of my piece is exactly why Israel is bombing a civilian airport in Beirut rather than hitting the Hezbollah military forces who captured an Israelie soldier.

who the hell are you?!?
Israel has one of the best armies in the world and how the hell were they suppose to prevent gilad's and the other 2 kidnappings?

I'm really shocked that you would even attempt to write something like this and try to pass it off as something a sane person would write about.

Israel doing terrorist acts?

Lets see; Who has killed thousands of people in bus, car, and suicide bombings? Who kidnaps soldiers and says "Let 400 of our prisoners out" Who turns kids into suicide bombing machines? Hamas, Hezbollah, Hamas, Hezbollah, Hamas, Hamas, Hezbollah, Hezbollah. So, please refrain from even TRYING to say Israel is committing terrorist acts. They're blowing up key places that either house weapons, strategic commanders, bridges which bring in terrorists or weapons and areas at which Hezbollah house their weapons/ammunition/leaders. Those need to be destroyed or Israel will face more kidnappings, car bombings and bus bombings. They need to stand up and destroy these idiots. Hamas and Hezbollah have been in power for way too long.

and Iran thinking strategically? I have nothing but laughter to respond to that. Let's wait until they make their weapons and annihilate that region, okay? I think that would be best. Let's give Iran more time to construct a massive weapon onto a rocket and use it again Israel(most likely) Come on, Let's wait.

I'll be frank and honest. Israel was going to do this sooner or later. They've been raped by the Arabic community by their bombings and kidnappings. How much more suffering does Israel need to take in order to gain their respect? Seriously, Israel has never started fightings unless provoked. Would you let American families be taken over by Mexican immigrants, held captive and ransom? I just don't see what you're saying.

who the hell are you?!?
Israel has one of the best armies in the world and dumb ass, how the hell were they suppose to prevent gilad's and the other 2 kidnappings?

Well there are two hypotheses to entertain here.

The first takes some of today's Israeli statements at face value. This is an operation that has been planned for five years. Its aim is to (i) separate Hizbollah from the Lebanese government and population, by holding all of Lebanon collectively responsible for Hizbollah's actions, (ii) cut off Lebanon, and particularly Hizbollah from the possibility of resupply and re-arming by destroying ports, bridges and infrastructure and (iii) by these steps bring Hizbollah to its knees and force its disarmament, or destroy it utterly.

Israel claims that Hizbollah is a terrorist organization. Critics counter that Hizbollah is a legitimate political party in Lebanon that participates in the democratic Lebanese political process and Lebanese government. "Fine," says Israel, "then all of Lebanon is responsible for Hizbollah astrikes against Israel."

However, taking these aims at face value, this seems a bad strategy. Hizbollah's main claim to whatever support it enjoys outside its own Shiite community is its success in forcing Israel to withdraw from the last Israeli-Lebanese war. Invading Lebanon only seems to reinfoce Hizbollah's claim to a reason for existence. Also, israel will not be able to cut Hizbollah off entirely, and others will intervene on its behalf in various ways. It is unlikely to defeat Hizbollah through this operation - just as they were unable to defeat them before.

So, rather than assume Israel has just taken a stupid pill - or at least not this particular kind of stupid pill - I think we should entertain a hypothesis that is more depressing to contemplate, but assumes Israel knows exactly what it is doing:

The US and Israel seek to provoke Syrian and Iranian intervention in the Israel-Hizbollah conflict, to provide a causus belli for expanding the Middle East war from Iraq to at least those two countries. Israel is helping Bush with his political problems, and his Iran problem, and is executing the first stages of a coordinated political-military strategy that will lead ultmately to major US military operations against Iran and Syria, a rather large-scale war in the region, and a geopolitical realignment and settling of scores that will be in the end to the advantage Israel and the US - or so they hope - after much loss of life of course.

This is the start of the big one.

Ah yes. Not even to the 16 minute membership mark, and condemning all. It's
interesting that you make the same sort of spelling and grammatical errors as
your fellow new poster, Ruso.

The concept of hell isn't terribly threatening, if one doesn't believe it.
Hell is much more a Christian than a Jewish concept, anyway, so isn't that an
inappropriate metaphor given your suggested origin?

As far as not having lived in Israel, should all oncologists have cancer
before they diagnose others?

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

Killing hundreds, if not thousands, of human beings serves no ones interest, including ours.

I shall return the gentle greeting: who the hell are you?

How were they supposed to prevent kidnappings? I don't expect that they could; such things happen in war. There are reports that a couple of scout Humvees went into hostile territory without appropriate support -- in other words, their commander screwed up. That happens; it doesn't even mean that the commander shouldn't stay in his jobs.

Are you familiar with Just War theory? It contains a doctrine of proportional response. I hesitate before I will call destroying civil infrastructure, such as a power plant, a proportional response to kidnapping soldiers. Professional soldiers recognize that Bad Things can happen to them. There have been kidnapping of US troops in Iraq. Was the response by air and artillery equivalent to that of Israel? How is that response going to prevent further kidnappings in equivalent tactical situations?

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

Excuse me..
You Pro Palestinian, Anti-Semitic NAZI Son of a bitch!

So Israel is supposed to sit back and let the Arabs shit on them? The ONLY thing I critisize Israel for is for letting the US/UN tie it's hands in the past. This is Long over due.

They gave up the Gaza, and the Palistinians used it to attack them. (Within 30 days) Lebanon is little more than a front for Syria. Critizize Israel for kicking Palastine and Lebanon? Look at what the US did under the Guise of 9/11 and fighting terrorism - we are still fighting and killing the innocent (yes, along with the not so innocent). If Israel wanted to punish the civilan populations of Lebanon and or Palastine They'd Nuke 'em.

(Wasn't it Palastine And Lebanon that Cheered 9/11?!)

These people have been fighting for a LONG time. Just grab a bucket of popcorn and watch the show. A few civilian casulties are to be expected, Be happy Israel is being as careful as they have been. Wars are not nice clean operations - people die, Good and innocent people die.


"They are not terrorists. They carry out terrorist attacks, but they are not terrorists."

That is among the most ignorant statements it has ever been my misfortune to read. Especially comming from an Anti-Terrorism expert such as yourself.

With you being an ex-spook (CIA) I would have figured that You'd know better. Or perhaps it's because of jackasses like you that the world is in the lousy shape it is in now. Man, we gotta get rid of these Autonomons in our government and replace them with something more human posessing something more capable of unique thought. Prison is a club for Criminals, they don't fear it, they fear Physical retribution. (Of Cource leave it to the US to Ignore the GENEVA CONVENTION - Ref. Guitanamo)

Am I detecting a slight trace of defensiveness in your comment?

Calm down babydoll. Of course, you're right. It's perfectly OK for an army to get its soldiers kidnapped and for its tanks to fall into traps. I call it fine soldiering. Maybe a promotion for the unit's commander? What do you think?

Carl,
What an anti-mensch you are. Try dealing with substance rather than overreact and misstate what I wrote. I said, if you would take time to read, that Hezbollah and Hamas were something more dangerous than just being simple terrorists. Do you understand that or is it an intellectual point too complicated for you?

Be sure to contact the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum and inform them that Larry C Johnson, Member since Ocotber 8, 1993 is actually a Nazi anti-semite. Bet you I'm the first one of them to send the Museum money every year for the last 13 years.

Ah, another poster with less than one hour's tenure in TPMcafe, clearly equipping him to judge local customs of expression and civility. Now, out on the deck, there are three sons of bitches and one daughter of a bitch. Other than barking a bit much, and the 90 pound puppy not knowing his own strength, they are loyal, ethical, and affectionate.

Your grammar and spelling mirror those of several other recently joined posters. Could it be that all are avatars of one being?

Would you care to cite the particular sections of the Hague and Geneva Conventions with which Guantanamo is in conflict -- and there are some? Of course, that would open up discussion of Israeli compliance with the customary rules of war. See, in particular, Fourth Geneva Convention, Parts II and III.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

Sorry for troll-rating your comment but the name calling is intolerable. Calling Larry or any other posters or commenters Nazis or morons is simply unacceptable.

I've been on this blog from the start and I've always appreciated the fact that people express their opinions very strongly but always in a civil manner. Please do likewise or go vent your frustrations somewhere else.

hcberkowitz - yes, next time I will use spell check before I post, sorry I suffer from Dyslexia.

I might add that your statement that I should learn the difference between missiles and artillery rockets is quite riduculous. They are both missiles PERIOD. A missile in you sense might miss and the small rockets might hit and kill dozens!!! You sound like a anal retentive attorney, Ok lets call them all projectiles. They are aimed, shot and fly thru the air and are designed to kill.

That example probably made sense to the writer who fails to understand the situation. I ask you simple questions. Why are there bomb shelters all over north Israel and why has Hezbollah been loading up with arms for the last 10 years right on the Israeli border?

These insanely abrasive negative comments actually do an excellent job of highlighting Josh's general point on the front page and here. The point being that the conservative elements of American Jewish community will simply not tolerate 1 iota of dissent on the topic of Israel.

This is irrelevent to the discussion, but for the record, I am a Jew, I have lived in Israel, and members of my extended family were killed in the holocaust. I will not be bullied into silence over Israel, and no one has the right or the moral authority to tell me to be quiet.

The offensive in Lebanon is stupid, wasteful, ineffective, and quite frankly cowardly. The poster has every right to point this out. The Israelis are in a literal sense trading civilian lives to minimize their own military casualties, because they are unwilling to take the casualties it would require to dislodge Hezbollah.

For all the flack Israel took for Jenin, most honest observers including many Arabs had to concede that Israel struck a military target, engaged the enemy on the ground, fought hard, took casualties, and won. That is how you fight a war and win respect. You demonstrate that your goals are important enough to warrant your casualties. If there are military threats that are unacceptable, you commit your men to the task, you attack the threat direcdtly and you eliminate it.

Call the substitution of collective punishment for the dirty, messy, dangerous but dignified job warfare what it is; cowardice.

Sharon would understand that Israel is demonstrating its weakness to Hezbollah, not its strength. Hezbollah will lbe emboldened and delighted to realize that the IDF is afraid to engage them on the battlefield. Isn't that what Hezbollah has been saying about the IDF for years?

Israel has a well trained and effective army, Hezbollah is a real threat and the goal to eliminate them is worthy. I’d advise Israel to stop killing civilians get to work fighting their enemy.

Not sure I follow you. I think that behind the public acquiescence Condi and Co must be fit to be tied. There goes the ONLY success story of this administration in the region, ie, the desyrianization/democratization of Lebanon.

Ah. More lectures who have joined the thread with about an hour's familiarity with the discussion. Complete with ad hominems about anal-retentive lawyers. Sir, I enjoy eating shark fin; don't confuse me with a cannabalistic lawyer.

Since you apparently don't understand the difference between unguided artillery rockets used in single launches, and precision guided missiles, how do you know if the difference is important or not? Your words A missile in you sense might miss and the small rockets might hit and kill dozens!!! are incomprehensible, so I can't really comment.

While I am an associate member of the American Bar Association, I've never been an attorney, and my bowels are just fine, thank you. My ABA involvement tends to be in information security, privacy, and medical law.

Attorneys, indeed, might not know the difference between the AGM-114 Hellfire II, precision guided bombs, and 82 or 132mm Katyushas. Use of the latter, which hit randomly in two-kilometer circles, is a war crime when used against residential. Use of precision guided weapons against civilian infrastructure is also a war crime. See Parts II and III of the Fourth Geneva Convention.

Why are there bomb shelters all over north Israel? Because it is being shelled and bombed. Why has Hezbollah been loading up with arms? To attack Israel for the purpose of affecting Israeli policies, just as Israel attacks Hamas and Hezbollah areas in an attempt to affect their policies. Neither approach works very well, does it?

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

I never know entirely what to think about these stories of good, diplomatic Condi vs. the crazy hawks. But in any case, I think Cheney is still in charge of foreign in this administration.

And I think the whole "Olmert told Condi to back off" story might be just for show.

Good point.

Haaretz keeps highlighting the "lessons" of the confrontation, i.e., that Hezbollah has even more sophisticated weaponry than previously thought. Oy...

I wish Hezbollah would go away, but the reality is that no one, not even Israel, can destroy it.
(Which is why I thought Rosenberg's post was well meaning but naive.)

So here's my prediction: in a few days/weeks, Israel will negotiate a release of prisoners with the usual 1 to 100 ratio.

That's the best case scenario. The worst case being... well, let's not go there.

PS That will give a few days for Bush and Olmert to explain why we don't negotiate with terrorists while we... negotiate with terrorists.

Being goymin I haven't heard the word mensch in a while...

Seems I Owe you some what of an appologe.

In Skimming your article I saw:

They are not terrorists. They carry out terrorist attacks, but they are not terrorists.
Unfortunately I didn't see the Rest of the paragraph - It seemed rather obvious where it was going.

Then I see:


How did Israel respond? They bombed civilian targets and civilian infrastructure and have killed many civilians.

After reading those lovely Quips There didn't seem to be a lot of reason of read the rest. It seemed quite apparent that you were rather anti-sematic.

noblesseoblige: Troll rating may be deserved - and I was biting my tounge as I know there are young'uns that may visit here.
hcberkowitz: I never could speal (spell?)... Took me a while to discern between fruition and fruiton. (English teachers always loved me) One of the reasons I never went into Law.

Geneva Convention Link
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/15016260.htm

I guess, against all reason, I am trying to stay optimistic... :-)

I absolutely agree. I just can't understand the military strategy on the part of Israel. If the agenda is to get their kidnapped soldiers back, I can't think of a worse possible route to accomplish that. It's amazing to me that a nation that was able to hunt down Eichmann from a world away is unable to strategically target and destroy Hezbollah. I do know that destroying Lebanon isn't going to do it.

Larry

I meant economically it will help the United States. A devastated Middle East will come to rely on the suddenly emergent American companies that sprout-up like dandilions in the springtime. What's more, a wrecked oil supply would allow us a reason to shift away from this barbaric petrolium paradigm that we're stuck in. Even Al Gore can appreciate that.

As I figure you know, The "Kidnaping" bit is nothing more than an excuse. They can't say that they ar POW's as there was no "Official" declaration of War.

It's simply a matter of Israel getting fed up with the Bull they are getting from Hezbollah sponsored Palastine.

Personally I think Sharon should be Stoned for selling out Israel in the first place.


___
Rude, Crude, And Socially Unacceptable
(Until Atleast 5pm)

The term is "GOYIM" I think.

So my Jewish friend who e-mailed me awhile ago making some of the same points Larry is making is also a "Pro-Palestinian, Anti-Semitic Nazi Son of a Bitch"? I think not. I think she is a person who thinks that Israel is making a mistake in the tactics it is using.

Tom

Thanks, yes you're right. Scenario 1. They will negotiate, there will be an exchange and this will end. The point of this Israel will say was to show Hezbollah the consequences of aggresive action . . . by killing secular civilians in Beirut of course.

Scenario 2. They really mean it, they want the war with Iran now, and they ar preparing for it. Horrfying I know, but its hard not to think about it. If my objective was to prevent someone from moving an army through Syria and into northern Israel, I might blow up some bridges and target power stations too.

Was it you who wrote down below something like its bad if Israel doesn't know what it's doing but its even worse if they know exactly what they're doing. That's exactly right.

No, Sharon was right. Real separation, a barrier, and the ability to respond to attacks by going after states, not organizations is pretty much the only game plan to real long term security. Its just it takes a pretty shrewd and tough manipulator to pull it off. Sharon could have done it. Olmert does not appear to have the same set of skills.

My understanding, and I'm no expert certainly, is that it's Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank. Hezbollah is Lebanon, Syria and Iran. It seems to me that the approach being used by Israel only serves to embolden these groups. Hezbollah, in particular, has lost a lot of power since Israel left Lebanon. Their recent actions seem to be a concerted effort to provoke Israel into doing exactly what their doing which enhances Hezbollah's prestige in a good part of the Arab world. I don't condone what Hamas and Hezbollah have done but I do question the strategic thinking of the Israeli government.

That is reasonable at makes sense and although I think someone needs to bitchslap larry johnson I agree pretty much with you.

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

Anti-Semitism rears its ugly head! I see through Johnson's game. "Takes a stupid pill" - that's because all Jews are geniuses...make good accountants, lawyers, doctors eh Larry?

You are a fool to give Hamas and Hezbollah the legitimacy of anything more than a terrorists organization. I am sorry but Katushyas and being led by a clever Mullah (I know his title it different but it is essentially the same) does not anything more than a terrorist organization make.
nitwit.

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

Letter From IsraeL The Great Fiasco - The Army Wanted Action

Ran HaCohen

 

Hosea 8-14 Set the trumpet to your lips! One like a vulture is over the house of the Lord, because they have broken my covenant, and transgressed my law. 2Israel cries to me, “My God, we—Israel—know you!” 3Israel has spurned the good; the enemy shall pursue him. 4They made kings, but not through me; they set up princes, but without my knowledge. With their silver and gold they made idols for their own destruction. 5Your calf is rejected, O Samaria. My anger burns against them. How long will they be incapable of innocence? 6For it is from Israel, an artisan made it; it is not God. The calf of Samaria shall be broken to pieces. 7For they sow the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind. The standing grain has no heads, it shall yield no meal; if it were to yield, foreigners would devour it.

Gosh! I didn't need all those trollish comments up there to deepen my dislike of governments which behave with enormous stupidity and arrogance. The leadership of both Israel and the US fit that description.

Now we have Israeli military ntelligence telling us that the missile which heavily damaged and embarrassed the Israeli warship was Iranian and was fired with the assistance of Iranian special forces inside Lebanon. And if it's true, I'd put Ahmadinejad in the "stupid and arrogant" group, though perhaps more of a newcomer or neophyte.

Stupidity and arrogance allied to power are enormously dangerous. That two democratic peoples have allowed this kind of leadership and attitude to develop within their countries doesn't bode well. We need to do something about it though, mind you, the brewing horror in the Middle East will make it harder to insure corrective action -- at least in the US -- through the midterm elections.

Do I think the kidnapped soldier was the real casus belli? Nope.

Am I angry? You bet!

The IDF is a "heck of a lot" more effective than any other military organization on the planet save possibly the United States military.

You moron, I believe I am correct when i say you spent some time in the CIA well if you heard reports of someone planning to transport one of your men who they kidnapped what would you do? If you were not an idiot you would block and/or destroy all possible means of speedy transport, you sick sick bigot I mean what did the Jews ever do to you?

Paying the Price for Israel

The bill is being tabulated. Here's a peek

"Let it be known to everybody that we in Iraq will not sit by with folded hands before the creep of Zionism"
Muqtada 

 

By the way, we're not withdrawing any troops this year.  I am foursquare behind Karen Kwiatkowski - they want a "clean break" - give it to em. High time we stopped funding this criminal enterprise.

 

 

Relations between the United States and Israel are crucial to stability in the Middle East, where the road to peace and prosperity continues to be fraught with many obstacles. In this regard, Congress has placed considerable importance on the maintenance" Dianne Feinstein

So, basically, any time the administration makes a completely stupid move, you justify it by believing that they're doing it for some ambitious-but-imaginary economic reason?

Oh and by the way your dim-witted yiddish peppered throughout is really really pathetic. schmuck.

"'They are not terrorists. They carry out terrorist attacks, but they are not terrorists.'

"That is among the most ignorant statements it has ever been my misfortune to read. Especially comming from an Anti-Terrorism expert such as yourself."

The word "terrorism" ceased to have any meaning long ago. In the 1980's, it was said that one man's terrorist was another man's freedom fighter. In Iraq, the insurgents fighting a civil war against the Americans are called terrorists, even though they are targeting the US military, not civilians. And we have what Johnson points out in his post in Israel and Lebanon.

If "terrorism" means ANYTHING, it means deliberately targeting innocent civilians to terrorize the population. Even that definition-- which was sort of the accepted rubric for awhile-- is problematic, as bombing cities and especially using nuclear weapons seem to fall within that category.

But what I would say in response to this poster who criticizes Johnson is what's your definition of terrorism? Is there anything more to it than that any type of warfare by a group you don't approve of is terrorism?

Gettysburg,
If you really believe that an all out war in the Middle East will somehow benefit the US than you are living in a fantasy world. The disruption of oil supplies alone is enough to push our foreign oil dependent energy sector into hyper-inflation. It's bad enough that our cowboy president won't put the brakes on an Israeli prime minister with no military training, sorta like W himself, and keeps repeating AIPAC's mantra, "Self defense trumps the Geneva Convention, and every one knows that Israeli lives are worth much more than Arabs lives"; but to see a recent college grad spouting the neo-con party line is pretty sad. You call yourself a Libertarian, but your statement above is far right GOP/Likud. Even your choice of screen name suggests a glorification of war.

I raise this because there is one simple question Israel cannot answer about the current operations--what is their strategic military objective.

They didn't answer one???  They didn't answer a number of questions. Ran HaCohen's explanation is the best I have heard. A desperado nation's more desperate military has gone off the deep end and this nation of sociopaths doesn't give a damn

One question?

One of my teachers, a former chief of Israeli military intelligence, used to say that going to war is not like asking a girl out on a date. It is a very serious decision, to be made on the basis of carefully crafted answers to even more carefully crafted questions.

Martin van Creveld

Israel takes stupid pill, Stupid US, we pay the bill

Hell is much more a Christian than a Jewish concept

I actually researched that one a bit, Howard.  I was trying to write a paper which argued that Delacroix' Salon piece, Dante and Virgil in Hell, was politically motivated.

It looks like it's an Etruscan concept (where souls are prosecuted for their sins) but somehow the pagan Germanic Hel got appended - maybe Martin Luther's Italian was poor.  

<>I had to abandon the paper though.  Delacroix left us with 26 volumes of memoirs - but no evidence that he had a political bone in his body.  My whole project went to hell.

Neoboho

The charge of "anti-Semitism" directed at anyone who criticizes Israeli policy is now so common, so overused, and so often poorly applied that it's bound to lose its value as an insult. I'll be glad to see it go.

No, what Americans do with Mexican immigrants is send them to the Middle East to defend your interests and if they don't get blown to bits they might someday get to vote in an American election. That's what we do with Mexican immigrants. Last I heard over 140 have been killed in Iraq.

you moron hamas and hezbollah practically wrote the book on muslim extremist israel hating terrorism. Go take a look on google or wikipedia and see what you find. Well organized they may be but they are still nothing more than terrorist organizations.

Gettysburg, even if your "statement" were true...

I, for one, welcome a region wide Middle Eastern war. It only serves to help the United States.

..."helping the United States" is not an end that should justify that means.  American people are not more important than other people.  We are richer, luckier, and up until about 6 years ago...freer.  But we are not better, and stirring up wars to "help" ourselves is not a worthy action of a super-power.  Sadly, there is currently no statesman, no wise person who can stand up and lead the US and the rest of the world in a better direction.  There is just smirking Dubya, spouting his memorized lines.

 By the way, I don't think it IS true that such a war will help the US (how would you spin the idea, Iraq has done wonders for us, huh?)

Don't you think the (real) nuclear option takes away the possibility of anyone actually winning the next world war?

The Mayan calander that predicts 2012 as the end of the world is looking more and more like reality to me.

Jan Knaus

Nobody

If you go back and read many of the past threads at this website you will be surprised to find that much of what I said in my above post are actually things which have been said by the anti-Bush left.

Many bloggers at this site are smart but they often miss the big picture as a result of their blinding hatred of the president.

Just yesterday (7/14) an anti-Bush commenetator posed the question of whether or not Bush's main purpose in invading Iraq was to spark a region-wide Middle Eastern war. These are not merely my questions; they are questions being asked by people on both sides of the political aisle.

I do not believe that the Bush administration had, in 2003, any perceived notions about acting as a tripwire which would cause a region-wide conflagration. Yet I believe the president and his people (boardmembers of Big Oil and energy) clearly see the potential windfall from a large scale war in the Middle East.

Remember, history is the best barometer of such things. The United States was the only true victor of World War I. While Europe blasted itself into oblivion American industry thrived and propelled us to the forefront of all nations. A Middle Eastern war could very well do the same.

If they want to fight, let them fight. It is not our job to interfere. But we certainly have a right to be there when the smoke clears...

I'm going to take a break from dinner cooking on this scorching day, to comment here. I agree that helping the US is not an end that justifies throwing everything and everyone else over the side, neither are Americans from an objective viewpoint, more important.

However, if American citizen X holds American Interests paramount, I don't see the moral problem. Now of course, I disagree with the actions taken since 9/11/01 to further American interests, virulently disagree.   do not think those actions have served our interests at all. I also believe many of those actions were taken to further personal interests as opposed to national interests. Furthering your own interests at the expense of that of your nation is something I consider un-whatever-nation-you-are-hurting.  

So yes, I agree that such a war would not help the US, it would not be in the national interest and so I am against it. I think it's not inevitable that a future world war would be fought without the use of nuclear weapons. Unlikely, but not inevitable.

Finally, the Mayan 2012 end date as an End of the World is a error, the actual passing of an age for the Mayans is Oct. 13, 4772.

Seamus

I am not a Neocon. I am a student of history who has gone to great lengths to understand how things have developed over time and what the consequences have been.

Just a refresher for you: The United States did not rise to its super power status through hard work, honesty, and determination. We did it through war, coersion, and manipulation. If not for World War I (and even II) we never would have enjoyed the paramount successes that we have achieved.

Part of the necessary reasoning behind my comments is that I am a realist, not a pragmatist.

The best teacher I've ever had was named Mr. Dahl. He taught 10th grade Advanced Placement European History. Throughout all of my studies the greatest lesson in politics that I have ever learned was taught me by that man. One day my classmates and I entered the classroom. The teacher was not present but on the blackboard there was a sentence written in large letters.

"Statecraft is Stagecraft."

Remember that. It's absolutely true.

Attention Attention.  I'm going to admit I don't know something.

The author of this article says:

  Olmert has somehow persuaded the Israeli military to ignore strategy, think tactically,

Could someone give a quick down/dirty explanation of the difference?  I don't read a lot about the nuts and bolts of war or diplomacy, and while the language of analysis seems to just use "street words", I'm sure that there's a technical difference between a strategy and a tactic, and it would be useful for me to get a handle on the distinction.

Is this something like the old saying, "he won the battle but lost the war?"  This would seem to mean that one evaluates tactics as servants of strategy.  Is this right, more or less?

Thankee.

Mike

I have to agree with the poster above in that They are not terrorists. They carry out terrorist attacks, but they are not terrorists. Is a comment that needs some elaboration or clarification. I don't think you're a jackass or any of the other things said against you in this thread, perhaps you meant guerilla attacks, but they are not terrorists because that certainly gets it across better.

I'm wondering if we have a case of Sock Puppetry in this thread.

Larry may have read Roger Hall's utterly hysterical book, You're Stepping on my Cloak and Dagger, which actually is one of the more informative books on OSS Special Operations. Hall, reporting to a young officer named William Colby, was one of the Americans taking German surrenders in Norway.

IIRC, he was in Varnes when he was told to go accept a German surrender in Hell. He made the underground very cofused when he muttered something about "that's a long way down", as the Norwegian town of Hell is indeed uphill from Varnes. He received a hearty welcome from the Mayor of Hell as he liberated it.

Somewhat more seriously,. I was commenting on Hell within the Abrahamic religions. It's a relatively common concept in the traditional pagan beliefs of Greece, Rome, and Scandinavia, and as you point out, of the Etruscans.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

I appreciate your thoughtful comment, and especially the link about the Mayans. I wish it made me feel less worried about the current situation!

Jan Knaus

israeli girl

Would you care to elaborate? Or are you just dissatisfied with reality? I'm guessing it's the latter.

You point out that Israel has a goal to


separate Hizbollah from the Lebanese government and population, by holding all of Lebanon collectively responsible for Hizbollah's actions

Both sides are calling the others' actions collective punishment. From Wikipedia,

In recent history, supporters of the Palestinians use the term to refer to certain Israeli actions in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. They use the term most often to describe the declared former policy of Israel to destroy the homes of terrorists as a means of deterrence [1], as terrorists' family members were also affected by such actions. [2] [3]. Likewise, Israel tightening of borders to prevent terrorist attacks is viewed by Palestinians, who depend on the free flow of labor and capital[citation needed], as a form of economic collective punishment.

Supporters of Israel charge that Palestinians and their supporters use the term "collective punishment" as an unjustified anti-Israel code word and/or power word, citing the use of the term to describe even conventional methods of warfare. They also argue that Palestinian targeting of Israeli civilians to address Palestinian complaints with the Israeli government constitutes an Palestinian policy of collective punishment of Israelis.

From the standpoint of international law, neither side looks very good. The Fourth Geneva Convention says
"Article 33. No protected person may be punished for an offence he or she has not personally committed. Collective penalties and likewise all measures of intimidation or of terrorism are prohibited.
"Pillage is prohibited.
"Reprisals against protected persons and their property are prohibited."

Given the intensity of the animosity on both sides, I find it hard to imagine such punishment achieving its goals. Remember that the US Strategic Bombing Study, after WWII, found that population bombing generally strengthened morale and the drive to resist.
--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

I took up your research invitation, but that's not what I found. Looking for the answer to who wrote the book on terrorism it seems it's IRGUN. Here's a list of their depradations during the "Great Uprising" in '30s.

  • April 20, 1936 - 2 Arab workers in a banana plantation killed
  • March, 1937 - 2 Arabs killed on Bat-Yam beach
  • November 14, 1937 - 6 Arabs were killed in several shooting attacks in Jerusalem.
  • April 12, 1938 - 2 Arabs and 2 British policemen were killed by a bomb in a train in Haifa.
  • April 17, 1938 - An Arab was killed by a bomb detonated in a cafe in Haifa
  • May 17, 1938 - An Arab policeman was killed in an attack on a bus in the Jerusalem-Hebron road.
  • May 24, 1938 - 3 Arabs were shot and killed in Haifa.
  • June 23, 1938 - 2 Arabs were killed near Tel-Aviv.
  • June 26, 1938 - 7 Arabs were killed by a bomb in Jaffa.
  • June 27, 1938 - An Arab was killed in the yard of a hospital in Haifa.
  • July 5, 1938 - 7 Arabs were killed in several shooting attacks in Tel-Aviv.
  • On the same day, 3 Arabs were killed by a bomb detonated in a bus in Jerusalem.
  • On the same day, an Arab was killed in another attack in Jerusalem.
  • July 6 1938 - 18 Arabs and 5 Jews were killed by two simultaneous bombs in the Arab Melon market in Haifa.
  • July 8, 1938 - 4 Arabs were killed by a bomb in Jerusalem.
  • July 16, 1938 - 10 Arabs were killed by a bomb at a marketplace in Jerusalem.
  • July 25, 1938 - 39 Arabs were killed by a bomb at a marketplace in Haifa.
  • August 26, 1938 - 24 Arabs were killed by a bomb at a marketplace in Jaffa.
  • February 27, 1939 - 33 Arabs were killed in multiple attacks, incl. 24 by bomb in Arab market in Suk Quarter of Haifa and 4 by bomb in Arab vegetable market in Jerusalem.
  • May 29, 1939 - 5 Arabs were killed by a mine detonated at the Rex cinema in Jerusalem.
  • On the same day, 5 Arabs were shot and killed during a raid on the village of Biyar 'Adas.
  • June 2, 1939 - 5 Arabs were killed by a bomb at the Jaffa Gate in Jerusalem.
  • June 12, 1939 - A post office in Jerusalem was bombed, killing a British bomb expert trying to defuse the bombs.
  • June 16, 1939 - 6 Arabs were killed in several attacks in Jerusalem.
  • June 19, 1939 - 20 Arabs were killed by explosives mounted on a donkey at a marketplace in Haifa.
  • June 29, 1939 - 13 Arabs were killed in multiple shootings during one-hour period.
  • June 30, 1939 - An Arab was killed at a marketplace in Jerusalem.
  • On the same day, 2 Arabs were shot and killed in Lifta.
  • July 3, 1939 - An Arab was killed by a bomb at a marketplace in Haifa.
  • July 4, 1939 - 2 Arabs were killed in two attacks in Jerusalem.
  • July 20, 1939 - An Arab was killed at a train station in Jaffa.
  • On the same day, 6 Arabs were killed in several attacks in Tel-Aviv.
  • On the same day, 3 Arabs were killed in Rehovot.
  • August 27, 1939 - 2 British officers were killed by a mine in Jerusalem.

Of course Arabs were killing folks also. But we're looking here at the tactical operational nuance we call "terrorism" which seems to have been invented by these militant zionists.

Please let me make a disclaimer. I don't think this material has any real value beyond making the point that the cycle of violence we are concerned with in the area is not an Arab invention, as you are claiming. So much for Wikipedia.

Neoboho

Moron, IRGUN was a nasty nationalistic terrorist organization but about as muslim as joe lieberman.

Wrote the book? Certainly not on guerilla warfare, and not even in that area. Ever heard of Orde Wingate? There's an interesting bibliography on him at Amazon. Realistically, Wingate, to some extent, drew on T.E. Lawrence's Seven Pillars of Wisdom. Wingate was a British, non-Jewish Zionist, while Lawrence led Arab guerillas in the First World War.

As far as urban guerilla warfare, some other references preceding Hamas and Hezbollah include Marighella's Minimanual of the Urban Guerilla, or, urban and country, Che Guevara on Guerilla Warfare, or, from a right-wing Cypriot standpoint, out-of-print General Grivas on Guerilla Warfare.

For general theory preceding these organizations, do consider Mao and Giap.

I agree that Hezbollah does not have legitimacy as a government, but Hamas is in a different category. I'd be willing to call it a state that uses terrorist techniques, as does Israel. The reality is that diaspora can describe Palestinians as well as Jews. Certain Jews have decided that the homeland where their diaspora ended is in Israel, where other Jews find homes in other countries. The Palestinians, for many reasons, have the desire for a homeland, but, realistically, no one wants them. That's a recipe for increasing anger regardless of what people are involved.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

Gettysburg,
There is a major difference between the two World Wars you cite and the present conflicts in the ME. The US was fighting to defend itself and other Western democracies against an imperialistic Germany in WW l, and worldwide fascism in WW ll. Iraq was a war of choice, an invasion of a country that posed zero threat to the US, but was a fixation of the Likud's & neo-con's and and benefited Israel, or at least that was the idea. Unfortunately, chickenhawks make lousy aggressors and occupiers and Iraq is now a full scale civil war. Lebanon is Israel's path to Iran & Syria, the other fixations of Likud, and if you are the student of history you say you are, you have got to acknowledge the pattern here. If you are not a neo-con, you are carrying water for them, and none of this has any benefit to the US. All this conflict will accomplish is a further isolation of the US by the EU, Russia, and China. We are the bully, the superpower gone power mad, and the rest of the world does not share your opinions about the benefits of ME conflicts on western economies.

I'm never sure if it's an argument for the deity or devil loving stupid people, as he created so many. Personally, I tend to think the Manicheans may have had the right ideas. I'd much rather go with Dionysus.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

FOREIGNID: 142188
FOREIGNPARENTID: 0
FOREIGNCOMMENTERID: 17105
AUTHOR: farjer
DATE: 07/15/2006 04:37:27 PM

I thought the Freepers have landed at TPMC.  They all got off the boat at the same time, as Howard pointed out.

Neoboho

I think your confusion stems from Mr Johnson's poor syntax:

"Olmert has somehow persuaded the Israeli military to ignore strategy, think tactically, and in the process become really stupid."

I read it as "...ignore strategy, tactical thinking..."

Just my interpretation. (Prior to being a nuclear physicist who got belted by gamma rays, I had a BA in English.)

This is a good question, on which I've posted before, but I don't remember the thread. You've given me the idea to suggest that there might be value not just to having a FAQ on posting, but on definitions.

In this case, the definitions have evolved over time. A current range would roughly involve four levels:


  1. Grand strategy: This is at the responsibility of the head of government, civilian in the US and UK, and involves all means for convincing a foreign power (or non-national actor) to comply with "our" national policy. It is an extension of Clausewitz's definition of strategy as "the extension of national policy by military means". Within grand strategy, you certainly have overt military means, but also diplomacy, economic warfare, psychological operations, information warfare, and clandestine and covert operations. The US military recently introduce the rather strained acronym MIDLIFE, for military, intelligence, diplomatic, law enforcement, information, finance, and economic components.
  2. Strategy: the highest level of military command, strategists pick the conditions of starting and ending a war (or, at least, we hope the latter), the theaters of operation (and their priorities), national mobilization and manufacturing, logistics, and other means involving deploying large (in relative terms) forces. In the case of the GWOT, the civilian command reached into strategy to select the Iraqi theater after the obvious Afghan one. In WWII, this was the level of theater and army group, probably larger forces than we will ever see again.

    "Strategic weapons" are such things as WMD that can settle a war, or cause major influence, by itself. There's no accident that the most prestigious branch of the fUSSR military is the Strategic Missile Forces.

  3. Operational art: Relatively recent in US military thought but older in German and Russian theory, this is the level at which theater commanders decide how to deploy their forces, and, in particular, where they want battles to take place to their advantage. For conventional militaries, this is the level of field armies and corps.

  4. Tactics: the methods, once battle starts, to force the enemy to submit. There are many levels of tactics, from division to squad in ground forces, or ship and task unit in naval combat.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

You have failed your first test, grasshopper. What strange logic dictates Muslims must write the book on Muslim terrorism? In all possible worlds, it could have been written by Colonel Lawrence, the CIA, or Musashi Miyamoto. Think about that the next time you invite someone to the meandering labyrinth of Wikipedia.

Neoboho

Yes, suddenly we have a bunch of brand new commentators, all hitting the ground running with a very similar brand of invective and syntax. They either (i)all followed a link to Larry's article posted on another site, or (ii) were all sent here by the same person or agency or (iii) are the same person.

Well, let me use them as a teaching example. They have a grand strategy and strategy that is currently obscure, but operational art told them where to land the boats and tactics tell them what to do when on the "enemy soil".


--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

I think Larry meant exactly what he wrote - by thinking (only) tactically, Israeli military lost sight of the wider strategic goals.

To the OP: Yes, you could think of tactics as short range planning/operations and strategy as long range, where 'range' could refer to space and/or time. The dictionary says that tactics is "the branch of military science dealing with detailed maneuvers to achieve objectives set by strategy", which illustrates the relationship between strategy and tactics.

I would hardly call bombarding civilian areas with katushyas guerilla tactics.

Well old harridan The book on preaching hate from the Koran had better be written by a muslim or no muslim is gonna read it. Find me proof on who the first person to "write" the idea of suicide bombing against civilian targets and I mean with modern capabilites not Chinese fire soldiers.

Ruso and Carl67 should get together because they have so much in common:

o both registered within 4 mins of each other.

o both capitalize words in truly odd places.
(Carl67: Those lovely Quips There didn't seem to -- ruso: suffer from Dyslexia)

o both have a fondness for words such as bitch, idiot, nazi, jackass.

o both are stunningly bad spellers.

o Carl67 likes the less common "kidnaping" and ruso the less common "kidnaped"

I am not suggesting they are the same people, of course. Only pointing out it could be the beginning of a beautiful friendship.

The Framing of Hizbullah

Israel's response to its soldiers' capture is part of a hamfisted attempt to redraw the region's map

Oh? It was routine in Viet Nam before Communist forces grew to Mao's Phase III, when they had large enough units to engage in conventional targets. It's used by insurgents in Iraq. Actually, it's been fairly standard for any USSR/fUSSR-backed guerilla force since WWII. If I were to pick classic weapons the fUSSR supplied, I'd pick the AK-47 first, then perhaps the RPG, then the Katyusha.

What would you call it? If it was action by regular forces, they'd be firing salvoes up to 48 rockets from each of several launch platforms, the designed goal of the weapon as a more advanced version of the German Nebelwerfer.

Please do not insult my intelligence by saying that they are terrorists, not guerillas. Mao's definition of the phases of protracted war is classic:


  1. Terrorism: raids by individuals up to small units, which are intended to show the impotence of the civil government, intimidate opposition, and gain resources (weapons, money).

  2. Underground operations: More conventional military operations such as ambushes or attacks on small bases, using troops that either have a sanctuary or disappear back into the civilian population.

  3. Conventional warfare by standing military units. The T-54 tanks that broke down the gates of the Presidential Palace in Saigon were there only because terrorist and underground operations made it possible. Tanks are perfectly compatible with the Maoist theory.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

Doesn't the very next sentence provide the "elaboration or clarification"?

Mike

You haven't demonstrated the aggressiveness of a putz, nor the victimization of a shlimazel. Schlemiel, I think, is about right.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

I, for one, welcome a region wide Middle Eastern war. It only serves to help the United States.

Wars do benefit nations. A region-wide Middle Eastern war will benefit the United States. Need I delve into the socioeconomic reasons?

You have done some delving already. I quote you from several different threads.

I'm speaking, of course, of the oil paradigm which the U.S. finds itself. Al Gore has done a nice job at presenting why this paradigm is self-defeating and unsustainable. What he fails to mention is that nobody (either in government or the private sector)has stepped forward with an alternative solution

But you somehow believe that there is someone who has a solution which explains Bush‘s otherwise stupid mistakes, don’t you.

The second thing, and most important, is that the oil supply infrastructure of such a war would so cripple supply that the world would almost require an alternative.

No kidding, except leave out the “almost”. Without abundant cheap energy, our way of life changes radically and our standard of living goes way down. The transition is likely to be ugly, especially if the need for transition comes upon us quickly, like as the result of a war in the M.E. So if there isn’t an alternative which can be ramped up and put into use quite quickly it is really stupid to destroy the infrastructure that we now depend on

I acknowledged that a Middle Eastern war would kill the oil industry. So why would American oil men want that?

The masters are the board members of Big Oil and Energy. They dictate policy and they are the ones who have something to unveil soon

Because they have an alternative which will leave oil in the "dust"...

“……the U.S. must find the "next big thing" after oil. I believe they have already done this but have simply not disclosed it yet.”

To regain its standing as lone world superpower the U.S. must find the "next big thing" after oil. I believe they have already done this but have simply not disclosed it yet.

What makes you believe this, and are we expected to agree with your conclusions because we take an idea like that on faith?

That is where the American oil and energy congolmerates would "unveil" their intentions and thus prolong the monopoly.

Brilliant really...

Brilliant? Really?

Your whole thesis that Bush is leading the U.S. in a brilliant stategy depends on the existence of the secret solution to the energy crisis that you believe the oil executives have hidden somewhere and it is still a ridiculous thesis even if they did. Why wouldn’t even one person, out of the great many who would necessarily have knowledge of this solution, do the patriotic and humane thing and reveal this new energy source before a great war which would cause so much death and destruction and while we could still make the changeover relatively painless and smooth?

Can you tell us something about the nature of this secret energy solution? Is it the five hundred MPG carburetor, cold fusion, pyramid power?

The editor seems to have gone bizzarre on me, and the page is looking a bit weird too.. about 8" of white space before the article begins.

I just wanted to say thanks to Howard for the helpful explanation, and to quip that MIDLIFE crisis could describe this administration's foreign (and domestic) policy.

Mike

If Ahmadinejad didn't have Al Quds personell with Hizbollah at the moment, I put both in the stupid pill eaters cateory.

Iran and Syria and indeed the entire Arab street can sit back and inflict significant harm at little cost to the US and to Israel

So much for Feinstein's "stability"

And America..you are underwriting this crap.

Tactics told them to dive into the pool. Operational Art forgot to check if there was water in it???

Mike

I completely agree that the "anti-Semite" race card has been overplayed.

It's true that there are many anti-Semites the world over. Equally true is that there are many Jews who disagree with Israeli gov't policy (re Palestinians, etc), although such people are are usually referred to as "self-hating Jews"...by rightwing Zionists.

(btw, this charge seems to me very similar to the ridiculous accusation that American liberals hate America.)

What I find truly despicable is the tacit belief that no non-Jew can legitimately criticize Israeli policy.

Condi Rice's ignored plea for "restraint" was a joke, and doesn't even begin to constitute criticism.

The Mideast death dance - George Bush - Correographer

Hmmm...referring back to Larry's piece:

Killing "terrorists" has a place in policy but it is not a strategic military obective. It is a tactical objective and may serve political purposes, but achieves little in terms of securing Israel. Israel is attacking targets in Lebanon like a drunken sailor in a bar fight.

I see your point. Perhaps I misread "tactics" as implying something more long-term; i.e., strategery.

It was the Tamil Tigers, circa 1980, who first used suicide bombing as a terrorist tactic. The Tamil people are primarily Hindu, but there are Muslims and Christians among them also. The inspiration doubtfully came from the Koran, but it may have come from Marvel Comic's Avengers #113 July, 1973, in an episode called And Our Young Men Shall Slay Vision.

I'm not being flippant. The comic book origin idea is just to say that there's nothing exotic or foreign about the concept of strapping on a bomb and blowing up people. Suicide as a battlefield tactic is as old as the hills. The Roman's complained about Christian Martyrs in much the same language we use today to complain about Islamic Martyrs. Kamakazi, anyone? Come on, it's an old idea. Now, you might cite al-Hasan ibn-al-Sabbah as a local influence in Western Asia, but even though he sent out his boys on "suicide missions" of assassination it was ok if they pulled it off and escaped. So it's a bit far-fetched, and certainly not something out of Islamic religious teachings.

And look, the Koran, Torah and the Bible all come from the same well-springs. There's nothing wrong with Islam per se, but as it is with any religion, it can be abused.

Neoboho

noblesseoblige - I mean really, who the hell cares about spelling when people are dieing. Go and get a real life man.

And for your noble sake, I wont use the word "idiot" anymore, I will replace it with "imbecile" Does that make you happy.

What is happening in the Arab world on a large scale is a conflict and strong divide arrising between Sunni and Shite Muslims. This has not started to play out yet, but will soon as Shite stuggle for dominance makes the lives of Sunnis unbearable.

Trust me when i tell you, we would be better off with Saddam in power (a Sunni) that the eventual Iranian state of Iraq. It is the Shite sector of Hamas which kidnapped the Israeli soldier. It is the Shite Hezbollah which miscalculated when the killed Israelis and kidnapped some. The Sunnis are mobilizing, they would rather be friends with Israel than allow Iran to control the area, especially with a N bomb. The Sunnis more than anyone cannot allow this to happen. What was the Iraq vs Iran war about? Sunnis vs Shites and the situation is heading in that direction again.

Is it your discourtesy or lack of knowledge that causes you to be afraid to explain your own comment? It's so hard to try to decide.

Actually, if you did want to tell someone to look, you might refer to primary sources, such as Mao, Grivas, Marighella, Lawrence, Guevara, or Giap. I'm afraid Wingate, who would be an excellent authority, died before he could write a book on his guidance to the Palmach.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

Seamus

In history everything is relative. In 1941 Fascism was indeed the enemy. In 1918, however, there was no monstrous enemy to be fought. Yes we fought the Germans but our alliance with France and Britain was more for economic reasons than it was good vs. evil like during WWII.

Times have changed. We no longer live in an era where sovereign nations pose a military threat to us. What we deal with are micro-factions of political nationals and religious fundamentalists. One thing that the current Middle East conflict has in common with World War I is that economics provides the entire justification.

And I must ask, how will Israel's war with Hezbollah create further tensions between the U.S. and EU? If you are of the persuasion that the U.S. is "isolated" or that our alliances with the UK, France, Germany, and even Russia are in danger, then you live in a paranoid fantasy land. Those nations have, and will, put up with our bold initiatives because they have to. What is their alternative, ally with China? That may be a realistic option for North Korea, Iran, and some other Middle Eastern nations but Europe and the U.S. are joined at the hip in terms of foreign policy. They might not like it now but they owe us...

Forgot to mention that an action can have different outcomes at different levels. For example, the Battle of the Alamo was a total tactical failure for its defenders, but a strategic victory for the Republic of Texas, giving time to organize the scattered forces that defeated the Mexicans at the Battle of San Jacinto.

In WWII, the Battle of the Coral Sea was tactically close, with a bit more American losses than Japanese. Strategically, it led to the first time a Japanese invasion force turned back.

Midway was a tactical and strategic success. We didn't realize until after the war, however, that Yamamoto had gambled with Midway due to the loss of face of the Navy over the Doolittle Raid. Doolittle's force did very little damage, but had an immense strategic effect, causing the Japanese to try to push their eastern perimeter farther than they could support.

Interestingly coming back to a Western country, Greece, against the Persians, the Battle of Thermopylae, where a force of 300-600 Greeks held off a massively larger group of Persians (approx. 10,000) under Xerxes, dying to the last man but inflicting such severe casualties as to change the direction.

While the best-known Greek unit were Leonidas' Spartans, 150 pairs of male lovers, the Theban Sacred Band, also died. Just an aside about gays in the military.

I can't give the author, but my favorite quote about Thermopylae, which also is an example of strategic versus tactical victory,


Three hundred Spartans died at Thermopylae
They were not defeated

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

[duplicate deleted]

Beginning of a beautiful friendship?
[Claude Rains]
Shocked! I am absolutely shocked to find sockpuppets in Josh's Cafe!
[/Claude Rains]
--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

I don't see a good answer for Israel. Lebanon is a large West Bank. You occupy, you get bled on the ground. You bomb, you just create recruits.

Israel's problem is that the conflict cannot be resolved by military power, which is Israel's only significant advantage.

I noticed Larry didn't proffer a policy option for Israel. I don't, either, and presumably for the same reason - there aren't good options. I think they are sunk in the long term. Better to make peace now before whatever leverage you have slips away.

I guess we'll just have to round up the usual suspects... :-)

How long are you going to delude yourself with not being in and of this world? Are you over 42? If not boy, pack your bags and get ready to put your ass where your mouth is. Draft, baby! If you're over 42 here's hoping for more taxation and wartime work relocation for you. The GOP can't save all you soft, fat boys.

Do you think that you can skate free and escape any stake in this fight? Maybe you are hoping for The Rapture? I hope to see persons like you, who bang the war drum, suit up and ship off. Do you have quality or are you just another dolchstoss?

NO STRATEGY?

I disagree!

Israel is approaching the situation very strategically. I'm not implying the strategy will work, but its certainly there:

1) Try to wipeout Hezbolla: Use the opportunity to destroy some of the ammunition that Hezbolla has built up over the last few years (which Israel could not destroy earlier without provocation)

2) Make Hezbolla an undesirable guest in Lebanon: Deliver punishment to the Lebanese government for housing Hezbolla by bringing the point home that Hezbolla is acting out of Iranian interest at the detriment of Lebanon's well being

3) Deliver a show of force so when negotiations are started it does not seem like they are done out of weakness

Dima

I agree with you completely. It's unfortunate that most at this site can't seem to discuss this issue without mentioning Bush. But I guess that's how it always goes...

 

Finally, the Mayan 2012 end date as an End of the World is a error, the actual passing of an age for the Mayans is Oct. 13, 4772.

Whew (breathing a sigh of relief).  I expect I'll miss a front row seat to it then.  I am hoping to make it to 2012

Mike

"Hamas and Hezbollah attacked military targets--kidnapping soldiers on military patrols may be an act of war and a provocation, but it is not terrorism".
................
You undermine your own argument here. Yes it was an act of war, which means Israel has every right to wage war in response. Lebanon has refused to disarm hezbollah and take control of its southern border, therefore Lebanon is completely responsible, as a sovereign nation, for attacks emanating from its territory against Israel. As far as hitting civilian infrastructure is concerned, it is not Israel's fault that hezbollah operates amongst civilians. Anyhow, civilian infrustructure is a routine strategy of war so that enemy forces cannot resupply their weapons, and also, in this case it is to prevent hezbollah from moving Israel's kidnapped soldiers out of Lebanon and possibly into Iran or Syria where they will never be found.

When civilians are purposely targeted, it is indeed terrorism, and hamas and hezbollah are terrorist groups who as a strategy, target civilians.

You can't seriously believe its possible to use the same tactics for taking out thousands as opposed to hunting down a single person. How do you strategically target and destroy hezbollah without risking civilians since they operate amongst civilians? The fact is that Israel IS targeting hezbollah in Lebanon. Civilians becoming casualities is a fact of war, all wars.

Wow! Thanks for your contribution to the discussion on the present worrisome situation. Telling everyone you don't know they are morons, idiots, and should go to hell is your idea of helping? It's not mine.

Tom

Gosh it's hot in here! Here is a solid piece from an old hand, Robert Fisk. "Beirut Waits".

"Lebanon has refused to disarm hezbollah and take control of its southern border, therefore Lebanon is completely responsible, as a sovereign nation, for attacks emanating from its territory against Israel."

This argument conveniently ignores the fact that Lebanon's fledgeling democracy lacks the power to take control of southern Lebanon away from Hezbollah. Israel was in southern Lebanon for years and could not do it. Any attempt by the Lebanese government to take Hezbollah's control away by force would fail and result in a resurgence of the civil war that almost destroyed Lebanon before Syria finally put an end to it by force. The Israili government is well aware of this and is being dishonest in using the failure of the Lebanese government to take control as a pretext for attacking civilian targets in Lebanon that have nothing to do with Hezbullah, including norther Lebanon.

"As far as hitting civilian infrastructure is concerned, it is not Israel's fault that hezbollah operates amongst civilians."

The fallacy (or dishonesty) of this argument is demonstrated by the fact that Israel has bombed Northern Lebanon, where there is no Hezbullah and which is predominently Christian.

While Hezbollah gained influence in Lebanese policies and kept on building up their pile of arms, Israel must have been waiting for the opportunity to level this imminent threat.

Do you happen to know the American definitions?  I did once - from reading an manual that was used by the School of the Americas during its Panama days.  There were step by step instructions on how to terrorize a population, as I recall.

Neoboho

Re: While the best-known Greek unit were Leonidas' Spartans, 150 pairs of male lovers, the Theban Sacred Band, also died. Just an aside about gays in the military.

I think you may have this confused with the battle of Cheironeia (339 BC?) where the Theban Sacred Band died to the last man fighting against Philip and Alexander of Macedon. During the Persian wars Thebes did homage to Persia and played no part in the fighting.

Re: It looks like it's an Etruscan concept (where souls are prosecuted for their sins) but somehow the pagan Germanic Hel got appended - maybe Martin Luther's Italian was poor.

The idea that people are punished in the afterlife for their misdeeds in this life is a pretty general (though not universal) concept. You’d have to go way back in the Paleolithic to find out who started it.

Where does strategery fit in???

Neoboho

Mao's three stages are pretty standard, and were used, as far as I can remember, in Army Special Operations manuals. The document I can remember that spoke most specifically about terrorizing a Latin American population was Carlos Marighella's Minimanual for the Urban Guerilla. Could this have been a translation?

It has a new number that I would have to look up, but then-Field Manual 31-21, Special Forces Operational Techniques, did review the Maoist definition.

I don't immediately remember the specific paper, but Lenin's comment, "the purpose of terror is to terrorize" is fairly classic. If one is to defend against terror, one has to know what to expect. I'd certainly hope anyone with such responsibilities has thoroughly studied the latter.
--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

[/Sidney Greenstreet to Claude Rains] "This guy just came up with a pair of scissors and snipped off the brim of my hat!"

Neoboho

Let me check. I have several references that do mention Theban allies at Thermopylae, but others that say only Spartans. You may be right about the specific battle, or there may be differing accounts.

Do we agree the Sacred Band was better to have on your side?


--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"what is their strategic military objective?"

That should be obvious, Larry.

Drag the US into a war with Syria and Iran before Israel's "legitimacy currency" runs out - as it's running out fast.

"I would be willing to wager that at least one Iranian military advisor was helping Hezbollah launch the missile that hit the Israeli ship."

How do I know Israel wants to drag the US into a war with Iran?

Because they accused Iran of supplying no less than ONE HUNDRED REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS SOLDIERS directly to Lebanon to do that attack on the Israeli ship.

And I find that one just a BIT hard to swallow. Not impossible, not at all. But almost certainly a calculated and deliberate bit of contrived propaganda, the only possible purpose of which is to generate an excuse to attack Iran - either that or explain the Israeli Navy's miserable failure to prevent that missile from damaging a vessel which is allegedly full of missiles and anti-ship-missile jamming gear itself.


Actually, in this post, you make SOME sense, Gettysburg, unusual as that is.

I read your posts now with more nuance, since you've revealed yourself to be as amoral as I am, but with less rational reason. In other words, you support certain actions by the state because you think they're "beneficial" to you and yours, not whether they're "correct" in the sense I prefer to judge actions.

Thus, I think the users who downrated you to 1 or 0 are incorrect in this instance. I will see if I can uprate you slightly.

Not that you're correct, but your content was at least argued instead of just stated.


If you're under the age of forty, the odds are you will live indefinitely longer (accidents and violence early on are an exception). If you are between the ages of forty and sixty, your odds go down the older you are, but you might live indefinitely. If you are over 60, you should make arrangements for cryonic suspension, and try to live as healthy a life as possible so as to avoid needing it.

Then you might make it through the next three to five decades and watch the Transhumans make the Mayan Calendar an irrelevancy, since we will initiate (ta-dah!) "The Singularity."

Or not.


Now, now, folks, rating this comment a "2" isn't correct.

This was humor, and humor should always be rewarded.


Your analysis is very good, except for one fly in the ointment - Syria and Iran.

If Israel was only concerned about coercing the Lebanese government into disarming HizbAllah - a task you point out that government can't do by itself, which weakens your argument - then why is Israel apparently ratcheting up the rhetoric against Syria and Iran?

If Syria and Iran are controlling Hamas and Hizballah - and certainly they fund and support these organizations - then how is pressuring the Lebanese government going to resolve the issue?

What I see here is a deliberate and calculated attempt by Israel to drag the US into a war with Syria and/or Iran, because Israel feels either that the US is dragging its feet on the issue of Iran's (nonexistent) "nuclear weapons", and/or that time is running out for Israel's "legitimacy currency". I think either the Israel political establishment and/or the Israeli military is trying to deal with ALL its enemies NOW.

I think this is how Israel intends to start a war with Syria and/or Iran - by ratcheting up the tensions for the last six months, killing Palestinian civilians, provoking a Hamas response and a Hizballah response to justify widening the war. Then, by a totally disproportionate attack on Lebanon, massively increase the Hizballah involvement, then convert that into accusations against Syria or Iran - or even justifying military action against Syria and Iran to directly involve them in the war. In which case the US will be almost forced to intervene on Israel's side, given Bush's repeated assurances that the US will "defend Israel" (despite the lack of ANY treaty to do so.)

People should remember that one of the reasons CITED for the US NOT going to war with Iran was PRECISELY the situation THAT NOW ALREADY EXISTS! Namely, a wider conflict with Hamas and Hizballah under the control of Iran!

Well, now it's going the other way! Israel has already started that end of the war. All that is left now is to spread it to Syria and Iran!

I can't see anything but a deliberate and calculated effort by Israel to do exactly that.

Israel can handle Hizballah and Hamas - they are no military threat to Israel. And if the US takes out Syria and Iran, Israel will be way ahead.

Cui bono?

That is the measure of everything in politics and war.


Less than thirty minutes as a member, eh?

Anybody want to consider the conspiracy theory that the "astro-turfers" are out in force over this crisis?

This guy just pops in here and finds Larry's piece and contributes this sterling bit, all by accident?

I suspect not.

Maybe Rosenberg is recruiting supporters?

Member for eleven hours and ten minutes!

Astro-turfer Number Two!

Oboy, here we go!

Today's castrati

 

No comment, no BALLS

Show us the courage of your convictions.  Bring it on.


Ran HaCohen makes that argument over at Antiwar.com, among others.

Apparently the Israeli military is seriously pissed that all they've done lately is act as "gatekeepers" for "The Wall" when they really want to go to town on Hamas and Hizballah.

Apparently they've got their wish. Their Chief of Staff is one of the less "morally interested" members of the Israeli military, according to a link from Ran's article, wherein he describes how he couldn't care less what happens when he bombs civilians.

For one who makes such sweeping statements, after less than 30 minutes as a member, you aren't getting off to a great start in reasoned conversation.

 

At least he had the balls to comment.