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The Crisis

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I want to know where Bush is on the burgeoning crisis in the Middle East myself. But I'd also like to know how Ken Baer knows that "both attacks [on Israel] were green-lighted by Iran." Similarly, TNR's editorial boldly proclaims that "The Hamas action in Gaza appears to have been ordered by Khaled Meshal, the Hamas leader who resides in Damascus--which is to say, it is also a piece of Syrian intrigue." But why does the fact that an attack "appears to have been ordered by" a guy who lives in Damascus demonstrate that the attack itself was "a piece of Syrian intrigue?" Surely the one thing doesn't follow from the other.

The same editorial also argues that Syria was behind the Hezbollah attack because "Nor can anything of significance take place in Lebanon without the sanction of Damascus."

This is mighty fuzzy stuff and it's popping up all over the place. But I'm not seeing the evidence for it. The logic on display is roughly equivalent to the idea that George W. Bush ordered the bombing of Beirut's airport because the United States gives Israel a lot of money and can influence Israeli policy to some extent when we choose to do so (and, no doubt, there are people in Lebanon inferring this very thing as I type, but there's no actual reason to believe it's true).

It all looks to me like a story we've seen before. If you've been paying attention, a lot of people have been agitating for the United States to commence more active efforts to overthrow the Syrian and Iranian governments for some time now. Then some stuff happened and -- miraculously and without real evidence -- that stuff's occurence is suddenly the reason we need to implement the very same policy that was being pushed for previously. I'd like to see some proof.

Now for a little balance, let me say that I read this John Quiggen post earlier today and, really, I can only get so dovish:

Yet another terror attack, with 200 killed. All such crimes, whether committed by terrorist gangs or national governments, should be condemned without reservation. The idea that causes such as national independence, religion or political ideology justify the murder of ordinary people going about their daily business is utterly pernicious, as is the view that similar killings (whether directly intended or inevitable ‘collateral damage’) are justified in retaliation for such crimes.
I don't really think that's a supportable analysis. To me, the traditional doctrine of "double effect" is pretty problematic, but it still captures some important insights. If one is really to adopt the view that it's never permissable to undertake actions that lead, even accidentally, to innocent loss of life this leads to some conclusions I find indefensible. A certain amount of killing of bad guys is going to have to get done in this world, and I seriously doubt that there's any feasible way of doing that without ever inflicting any "collateral damage." A policy of total passive inaction in the face of terrorism is going to have costs that are every bit as real as the costs of overly aggressive action.

As it happens, in the real world we aren't faced with the problem of out-of-control Quiggenism on the policymaking level, but I still don't think it will do to put crypto-pacifism up as the alternative to currently prevailing militarism in Israel and the United States.


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Whether Damascus or Tehran gave tacit or real support to Hezbollah's actions I am sure they gave their support.

 

Wars and military action rarely solve problems...they just put off resolution and lead to more wars.  Like WWI directly lead to WWII and a genocide...and then it took razing a continent and dropping a couple of nukes on another country to put an end to it.  By contrast we defeated the USSR without firing a shot...I doubt that pacificism is the answer but military action definitely isn't and is probably worse.

It is important to click through to the Quiggen post for context. It is about Mumbai, not Israel, which gives the phrase "similar killings" a different coloration than what Matt seems to be responding to. Maybe (or maybe not) Quiggen thinks that Israel can justifiably retaliate, so long as it is not disproportionate, and maybe (or maybe not) there actually is a significant difference about what is "proportionate," but the post itself is neither absolute (else the qualifier "similar" would be out of place) nor as Quakerish as Matt is making it out to be.

Read this analysis from the Los Angeles Times:

"Despite Hezbollah's Ties to Iran and Syria, It Also Acts Alone."

Money quote:

'"I don't have evidence that there were direct instructions," said one Israeli official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. "But they were under the influence of the Iranian government."'

"If one is really to adopt the view that it's never permissable to undertake actions that lead, even accidentally, to innocent loss of life this leads to some conclusions I find indefensible."

I don't believe that was being advocated.

"A certain amount of killing of bad guys is going to have to get done in this world, and I seriously doubt that there's any feasible way of doing that without ever inflicting any "collateral damage.""

Yes, there is, if you have the smarts. This doesn't mean that there will NEVER be "accidental" deaths - but it does mean that you NEVER have to engage in operations that will INEVITABLY result in civilian deaths.

There's a difference between a SEAL Team breaking in on a hostage situation and accidentally shooting a hostage because the hostage stood up in the middle of a firefight or a terrorist grabbed the hostage and shoved him in the line of fire, and launching a missile with a 500-foot kill radius in a civilian neighborhood - no matter WHO is in that house, bin Laden himself is no justification.

"A policy of total passive inaction in the face of terrorism is going to have costs that are every bit as real as the costs of overly aggressive action."

Again, nobody is advocating "total passive inaction" - where the hell do you get that idea?

"Whether Damascus or Tehran gave tacit or real support to Hezbollah's actions I am sure they gave their support."

"Whether Washington DC or the Bush Administration gave tacit or real support to Israeli actions I am sure they gave their support"

Which I think was Matt's point. This whole "guilt by plausible association" is what got us into Iraq to start with. "No Saddam did not have WMD but he wanted to, no Saddam didn't have any connection to 9/11, but he gave money to families of Palestinian suicide bombers" didn't justify us going to war against Iraq.

That certain parties in Iran or Syria are happy that Hezbollah and Israel are in an armed struggle or even that Lebanon and Israel are on the verge of being in an armed struggle does not legitimize the US escalating this to a regional struggle by bringing Syria and Iran overtly into the mix.

I am a strong supporter of Israel, but in the final analysis there is no direct equation between Israeli national security and US national security. We have supplied the IDF with plenty of weapons, they have plenty of capabilities all on their own. Lets not allow the PNAC boys to use this to get their next two wars on. The last thing we need is to have two or three years down the road Baer, Pollack and Beinart explaining yet again why they were right to be wrong on this one.

Isn't the point of terror sponsorship the idea that you can, you know, hide your responsibility?

Quiggin:

"the murder of ordinary people going about their daily business is utterly pernicious"

Are you suggesting opposition to national military operations which accept 200 dead civilians at a pop is dovish? I'm not denying the right of the most savage response in defense of attack and I'll grant Russia their Beslan response, an ill-fated operation in response to the savage kidnapping of children that resulted in 186 dead children, 344 dead out of 1200+ hostages. I believe what John Quiggin is suggesting is that a Russian attack in Chechnya to the Beslan kidnappings that caused the deaths of 200 dead Chechnyan civilians would not be justified. That's not being a dove, that's being sane.

 

 

I will admit to giving Quiggin a lot more leeway than most, because I think he is one of the better bloggers out there (top 10 at least).

The key word for me is "retaliation". None of this is justified in retaliation, but collateral damage is justified in actions that are intended to prevent and fix problems in the future. Some will argue that retaliation has this effect, but evidence suggests otherwise -- unless we are talking about the truly awful levels of force which can bring about peace.

So, for me, use a cost benefit analysis for collateral damage, but retaliation in and of itself is not a justification.

It's entirely fair, IMHO, for Israel to hold responsible the parties responsible for the attacks against it. And it's also clear that there are a plethora of parties that may be involved.

Hezbollah and the military wing of Hamas - yeah, go get 'em. If it can be convincingly demonstrated that others were using them as proxies (as opposed to just applauding after the fact), go get them too. I'm good on that.

The problem is that Israel is, as far as I can tell, going way beyond that. In Gaza, they are punishing the entire million-plus population of the Gaza Strip for what Hamas did.

In Lebanon, they are bombing the freakin' airport. Now who does that hurt? The people of Lebanon generally, Christian, Sunni, Shiite, Druze, etc. alike. The nascent government of Lebanon may or may not have the strength to do anything about Hezbollah's presence in the south, but it's hard to see how Israel's attacks on Lebanon's infrastructure will make it easier for the government to act.

Not to mention, the meme seems to be that Syria and Iran were pulling Hezbollah's strings. How does bombing Beirut do anything about that?

In the long run, Israel needs Lebanon to be a real state, one with a central government that has the proverbial monopoly on power that can be held responsible for maintaining the peace. Is this helping? It's doubtful. This will leave Lebanon poorer, not only due to blown-up infrastructure, but who will want to invest there now? Who will want to visit Beirut? A poorer country is generally a less stable one, and vice versa.

So what's Israel's long-range plan for Lebanon? Will it re-occupy? (How'd that work for them last time?) Will it invite the Syrians back in to maintain order and keep a leash on Hezbollah? Or is it okay with the idea of Lebanon's being a weak state in the middle term?

One has the feeling that Israel's government didn't think about any of this before retaliating against Lebanon; it seems to have said, let's smash something.

Smashing is easy. Un-smashing is much more difficult.

Iran?? How convenient for the neocons who have had their puppet selectident saber-rattling at Iran for months. Too bad Kenneth Baer has been unwittingly seduced into their cause.

Has everyone forgotten that the democratically elected government of Gaza tacitly recognized Israel's "right to exist" in the midst of Israel killing families on a Gazan beach one sunny afternoon in June? Israel wants to deny that there is a negotiating partner so it rains bombs on everyone from Gaza to Beirut and starts whispering campaigns about Iranian and Syrian involvement.

Negotiate permanent borders, dismantle the settlements outside of those borders, agree to an internationally controlled Jerusalem, and settle on some economic inducements to jump start the Palestinian economy and presto-chango the terrorists and militants lose and everybody else wins. We all know what it will take and none of it includes bombs or rockets or oppression or abductions or prisons.

I fear, however, that Israel doesn't, and perhaps hasn't in the last 30 years, wanted everybody to win. They have become drunk with their own power.

So our government should go about the business of taking that power (money, weapons deals, etc.) away and forcing Israel to do what's right. That's what Bush should be doing.

Of course governments, and government-leaning pundits, will throw up a haze of possibilities, "likely" connections, "high level" sources, to confuse the issue and take our eyes off the simple meaning of the action. It's clear Israel's response is disproportionate, both to Hamas and Hezbolah, and that it is part of a long-standing Israeli pattern of over-kill and intimidation. In speculating about the motives of Hezbolah,, Syria or Iran, we are merely taking Israel's view, that it was the innocent victim. We should speculate about Israel's motives instead. Israel has all the cards, as it has for forty years. What is it's objective at this time? Does Israel appear to be acting rationally, or recklessly?

Stephen Erlanger had an analysis piece on this general topic that could have been written at AIPAC.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/13/world/middleeast/13assess.html

Most of the "larger context" stuff like this I've seen seems to be aimed at justifying US military action against Iran. Equating these "kidnappings," as we are supposed to call them, with a "Don't mess with us" message from Iran is really extremely farfetched, but this unsupported idea that Hezbollah-Hamas-Muslim Brotherhood constitutes a mere tentacle of Iraqi policy has become instant conventional wisdom. How, one wonders?

we defeated the USSR without firing a shot

We paid other people a lot of money and gave them lots of guns and shoulder-launched missiles to fire shots, though: remember Afghanistan, our great covert foreign-policy "triumph"?

Thesis 1: the Soviet Union fell because the Mujaheddin proved to be an implacable foe in Afganistan

Thesis 2: the Soviet Union fell under its own weight due to the intrinsic unwieldiness of its economic model, combined with widespread corruption, indifference, and the burden of excessive military spending.

I know Thesis 1 is sexier, but I'm going with Thesis 2. And, truth be told, the Soviet Union was never as much of a threat to the US as it was popularly viewed to be, even in the 1940s and 1950s.

Despite Hezbollah's Ties to Iran and Syria, It Also Acts Alone."

Money quote:

'"I don't have evidence that there were direct instructions," said one Israeli official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. "But they were under the influence of the Iranian government."

I usually disagree with Transhuman but
his excerpt from the LAT is useful. If the Isrealis don't have such evidence it certainly makes it seem unlikely that Erlanger and other reporters have a stronger
basis for such claims.(bring back James Bennett !)

Could it be true anyhow ? Of course . It would be beyond foolish for me to couple my scepticism of Erlanger&Co with my own uninformed assertion pro or con.

Whatever the truth it leaves me nostalgia for the good old days of Arafat in Ramallah and the Syrians in Lebanon ( and of course
Saddam in Baghdad).

In all seriousness I suspect Isreal's (i.e. Sharon's) post 2001 refusal to negotiate with Arafat will be seen by history to
have been an error. Whatever his deviousness (join the club) and other deficiencies as a negotiating partner the
Arafat who sneaked into Isreal in disguise to attend the memorial services for Rabin
and who- at dinner at Barak's house the night before - begged him to prevent Sharon's Temple Mount visit , begins to seem in retrospect like the worst possible partner in peace...except for all the others.

<>To tell you the truth, I often wonder if this "collateral damage" meme is a fluke.  I mean, is it actually intended?  You don't see, for example, 500 pounders being dropped on terrorist strongholds in London or New York. 

The strategery would go like this:  Terrorize a neighborhood with indiscriminate ordinance and they will be less likely to passively accept the presence of known terrorists in their midst.

Neoboho

exactly,

Basically the Soviet Union was gonna collapse under its own weight when it did give or take a few years. All the side line wars we engaged in were meaningless.

Quiggin gives us the proper perspective on the so called “collateral damage”: “the murder of ordinary people going about their business…”.

I’ve had a problem with this military term for killing innocent people for some time. It has now been internalized by nearly everyone. Oh, “collateral damage” is inevitable, “collateral damage” is just part of war, “collateral damage” is something we just hate, but can’t be helped, there was some amount of “collateral damage”, etc.

So, at what point do we recognize that “collateral damage” is the bloody and extensive slaughter of innocent people? Because that’s what it is! It’s so much easier to create military plans when “collateral damage” is accepted. Those unlucky innocents just happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. If they happen to be in the way of a 500 lb bomb, oh well. It’s easier than providing better intelligence, than using more precision in identifying attack targets. It makes “lashing out” justifiable, because “collateral damage” is just one of things we see as impossible to avoid.

“RT” said in his comment that “Smashing is easy”. It sure is. It’s even easier if “collateral “damage” is accepted as something that can’t be helped, and so it becomes “unavoidable”. I don’t think that the families of the “collaterally damaged” look at this so dispassionately. Maybe that’s one reason this thing never seems to end.

Ii sure is easy accepting “collateral damage” from the comfy confines of our computer chairs. That way we don’t need to see those disturbing images of little boys and girls with half of their face missing, and their brain exposed, and falling in chunks to the ground, or their head hanging from their neck by a slender piece of skin, and smoke coming from the hole in their body where their head used to be, or their mother or father, who in a seconds time, had their intestines erupt from their body unto the street, as they were returning from the produce market. Or the uncle screaming and dying in agony, as his body is consumed by flames, and his skin literally melts off of his body – just because he happens to be in the wrong house during that tank shelling.

We should start all plans with zero tolerance for slaughtering and killing and maiming innocent people. We declare it unacceptable to disembowel, burn alive, or tear the flesh off of innocents. As long as we accept the antiseptic term “collateral damage” as just something unavoidable, not enough will be done to avoid it.

I hope “joejoejoe” doesn’t mind me quoting him, but “That’s not being a dove, that’s being sane” is exactly right.

Money quote:

'"I don't have evidence that there were direct instructions," said one Israeli official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. "But they were under the influence of the Iranian government."'

OK..if we extend this type of evidentiary  thinking on Israel's part  in this quote..then it is perfectably reasonable for the rest of the world  and the Iranians to say....

"I don't have evidence that there were direct instructions, but Israel is under the influence of the American government."..no?

Such that the worldview would be that it is Iran and America who are behind the escalation of war in the Middle East. Hmmm, that would mean that Iran is saying 'the Americans are behind these attacks, while America is saying 'the Iranians are behind these attacks. my my my

Somehow, this seems quite plausible...but noooo, that makes too much sense. 

 I have to be wrong...after all what do I know about war strategies and foreign policies...given that my country is represented by Bush.

I agree. It could be said that the men responsible for 9/11 wanted to demolish symbols of American power and that the resulting 3000 deaths were merely "collateral damage."

"And, truth be told, the Soviet Union was never as much of a threat to the US as it was popularly viewed to be, even in the 1940s and 1950s."

Sure they had the ability to turn the entire United States into a plate of steaming radioactive glass, and Krushchev pounding his shoe on the podium at the UN and yelling "We will bury you" but the notion that they were in any way a real threat can be breezily dismissed. Look I don't know how old you are but people in my generation were pretty much convinced that total thermonuclear war between the Soviet Union and the United States was more a question of "when" than "if". And right through the Reagan Administration the same crazies who started as "China Firsters" and ended up as "PNAC Vulcans" were itching for the fight. Remember the FEMA guy that insisted you could ride out a nuclear war by digging a hole and covering it up with a door? We got lucky that Gorbachev was in the right place at the right time.

On what basis do you make this claim that the Soviet Union was not a threat in the 40's and 50's. Did everyone else simply get this one wrong in real time?

And history has shown that the CIA drastically got Soviet military spending wrong. Reagan deficits did not cause the Soviet Union to collapse in an attempt to compete, Reagan deficits were just Reagan deficits. And no amount of special pleading by apologists is going to change that Reality Based analysis.

Yes, but I think Matt's point is simply that if you are going to make allegations in the media, you should provide at least some evidence, perhaps historical evidence if need be. If not, it's just hard for the average person to judge (which goes to your point that that's on purpose).

I sure the writers he references think it's self-evident, but others may be more skeptical.

Maybe they are applying lessons learned from the Iraq War.

Let's say we declare that collateral damage is unacceptable. Then how do we use military power? Or do we simply never use it again?

I don't see an absolute moral distinction between actions that will certainly cause civilian casualties and actions that only have a probability of causing civilian casualties. Do enough probable-casualty operations and causing civilian casualties will be a certainty. Since both policies will kill innocents, there's no moral superiority to avoiding bombing unless you believe that it will cause fewer deaths over the course of the whole war. So you're playing the numbers game either way.

And history has shown that the CIA drastically got Soviet military spending wrong.

Could you elucidate on that?  What came to my mind was the "Team B" report during Ford's Admin.  You aren't citing that by any chance, are you? (As in Robert Sherer's With Enough Shovels).

Neoboho

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

His Master's Voice


Steve Clemons reports that the Israelis have told US Secretary of State Condi Rice to back off her calls for Israel to exercise restraint in its responses to Hizbullah. 



So much for Bush's "Cedar Revolution". So much for the Levant. The anti-Syr PM of the Lebanon told Bush get rid of Israel, there's no problem with the Army of God.

A damned embarassment.

I don't recall asserting either Thesis, Rick. I didn't even assert that we defeated the USSR at all. Shots were fired at Soviet troops, and we supplied the guns -- that's all I said.

Here's a question. The US unquestionably had the ability to turn the USSR into a plate of radioactive glass. Does that mean the US was an active threat to the USSR? And if so, isn't it rather logical or even inevitable that the USSR tried acquire the same capability?

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

 

Matt must have been reading "Clean Break" . He's rightly suspicious of the Same Old Shit.

In 1996, a group of pro-Israeli Americans – including Richard Perle, James Colbert, Charles Fairbanks Jr., Douglas Feith, Robert Loewenberg, David Wurmser, and Meyrav Wurmser – prepared a policy statement for then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that proposed a strategy of regime change as the only solution for Israel's growing encirclement and isolation. The main problem, they averred in "A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm," was Syria, and the troublesome border with Lebanon:

"Syria challenges Israel on Lebanese soil. An effective approach, and one with which American can sympathize, would be if Israel seized the strategic initiative along its northern borders by engaging Hizballah, Syria, and Iran, as the principal agents of aggression in Lebanon."

But this could occur only if Iraq was taken out first:

"Israel can shape its strategic environment, in cooperation with Turkey and Jordan, by weakening, containing, and even rolling back Syria. This effort can focus on removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq — an important Israeli strategic objective in its own right — as a means of foiling Syria's regional ambitions."

With Saddam out of the way, the second phase of the "Clean Break" scenario is unfolding before our eyes. And the propaganda war is going just as well as the military aspect of the campaign: the Israelis are no fools. They realize they can't proceed without the tacit complicity of the U.S. and the Europeans, who must be made to look the other way as the IDF commits war crimes on the ground. Under the pretext of avenging the "kidnapping" of one of their soldiers – and, more recently, two more – they have unleashed a military assault planned well in advance of the allegedly precipitating incidents.

Israel Crosses the Line: Justin Raimondo

You start with "never use it" as the default position and require "just war" evidence to prove the case to the contrary. That's why most mainline Protestant faiths and the Catholic Church opposed the war in Iraq.

That's why neocons like the DLC's Marshall Wittman so despise the Sojourners faith based organization. It holds to those principles that include proportionality and consideration for civilians lives in their equation of whether a war is just.

"Sure they had the ability to turn the entire United States into a plate of steaming radioactive glass, and Krushchev pounding his shoe on the podium at the UN and yelling "We will bury you" but the notion that they were in any way a real threat can be breezily dismissed.'

Yes - because we had a superior ability to turn Russia into glass - and they knew it.

"Look I don't know how old you are but people in my generation were pretty much convinced that total thermonuclear war between the Soviet Union and the United States was more a question of "when" than "if"."

Since when is the public always right?

"And right through the Reagan Administration the same crazies who started as "China Firsters" and ended up as "PNAC Vulcans" were itching for the fight."

Now THERE you have something - but that doesn't make RUSSIA the "threat" - it makes US the threat.


Well, the problem with your thesis is the undeniable fact that you occasionally DO have to do an operation that has a finite possibility of causing harm.

Your goal should be to minimize that by doing OTHER things smarter - like changing your foreign policy when it breeds terrorists.

The other problem with your thesis is that ANY action by the state ends up killing SOMEBODY.

You don't want to kill anybody except purely by random accidents unrelated to human intervention?

Get rid of the state.

Besides, I wasn't talking about "moral superiority" - I never do. I was talking about what works to NOT cause unnecessary deaths and as an aside causes everybody in the world to hate us.


You use it the way a SEAL Teams hostage rescue operation does - with precision.

If a civilian gets killed then, it's purely an accident - and accidents happen. What you don't do is engage in operations that have a near-certainty of killing civilians - which is by far the bulk of the operations the US engages in under current military doctrine.

As I said above, there's a difference between a SEAL Team hostage raid and dropping a 500-lb. bomb on a civilian neighborhood.

The US military, if it was so oriented and developed the doctrine and the enabling technologies, could have a military capability of taking out any other military force or national leader in the world without harming a single civilian except purely by accident.

But we don't. Because most people believe mistakenly that "collateral damage" is acceptable - because most humans don't give a rat's ass about "the enemy" or the "enemy's" civilians. And that includes practically everybody who isn't an out-and-out pacifist - including so-called "progressives".


No, for the last three years, analysts have been saying that the US has been applying lessons learned in Israel to the Iraq war.

The fact that the US has indeed used Israeli military advisors in its Iraq training - and even used the "bulldoze their homes and farms" tactic in Iraq pioneered by the Israelis - makes that clear.


As I've recently posted elsewhere, I think it's clear that Olmert is (willingly) being led by the hardliners in the Israeli military and on the right in this matter.

He has no military background, so he's letting the military run with this, regardless of the consequences. Politically he's doing this for his own purposes and the purpose of dragging the US into a war with Syria and Iran.

They may not have their military ducks all in a row, but Israel is almost certainly using this situation to achieve strategic and tactical goals unrelated to the kidnapping incidents. It is VERY clear that those incidents were merely the "triggers" and the excuses.


Yes, I skimmed Erlanger's piece - more of the same crap: "Syria and Iran are flexing their muscles because the US and Israel appear weak", yada, yada.

Nothing like the phenomena of psychological projection.

Or just call it what it is - propaganda.

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

Righteous Anger: Condemnation of Israeli action mounts - 

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

Make no mistake.. Israel is holding the most dangerous "blank check" since Kaiser WII's to Emperor Franz Josef.  But that check has a date. It expires in 2009, and the Israelis being no fools, aren't wasting time. And they don't give a damn how much they cost the good ole USA or anyone else for that matter.

Relations between the United States and Israel are crucial to stability in the Middle East, where the road to peace and prosperity continues to be fraught with many obstacles.  In this regard, Congress has placed considerable importance on the maintenance of a close and supportive relationship with Israel.