The Green Lantern Theory of Geopolitics
Up at Cato Unbound you can find Reuel Marc Gerecht's latest argument for bombing Iran. I think I've covered the policy arguments on this score extensively elsewhere, so let me just note something in particular about Gerecht's essay. Like a lot of conservative writing on foreign affairs it puts a huge amount of weight on things like will, resolve, and perceptions of strength and weakness. It's a view of things that reminds me of nothing so much as the Green Lantern comics, which I enjoy a great deal but regard as a poor guide to national security policy.
As you may know, the Green Lantern Corps is a sort of interstellar peacekeeping force set up by the Guardians of Oa to maintain the peace and defend justice. It recruits members from all sorts of different species and equips them with the most powerful weapon in the universe, the power ring.
The ring is a bit goofy. Basically, it lets its bearer generate streams of green energy that can take on all kinds of shapes. The important point is that, when fully charged what the ring can do is limited only by the stipulation that it create green stuff and by the user's combination of will and imagination. Consequently, the main criterion for becoming a Green Lantern is that you need to be a person capable of "overcoming fear" which allows you to unleash the ring's full capacities. It used to be the case that the rings wouldn't function against yellow objects, but this is now understood to be a consequence of the "Parallax fear anomaly" which, along with all the ring's other limits, can be overcome with sufficient willpower.
Suffice it to say that I think all this makes an okay premise for a comic book. But a lot of people seem to think that American military might is like one of these power rings. They seem to think that, roughly speaking, we can accomplish absolutely anything in the world through the application of sufficient military force. The only thing limiting us is a lack of willpower.
What's more, this theory can't be empirically demonstrated to be wrong. Things that you or I might take as demonstrating the limited utility of military power to accomplish certain kinds of things are, instead, taken as evidence of lack of will. Thus we see that problems in Iraq and Afghanistan aren't reasons to avoid new military ventures, but reasons why we must embark upon them: "Add a failure in Iran to a failure in Iraq to a failure in Afghanistan, and we could supercharge Islamic radicalism in a way never before seen. The widespread and lethal impression of American weakness under the Clinton administration, which did so much to energize bin Ladenism in the 1990s, could look like the glory years of American power compared to what the Bush administration may leave in its wake."
I don't even know what else to say about this business. It's just a bizarre way of looking at the world. The wreakage that the Bush administration is leaving in its wake is a direct consequence of this will-o-centric view of the world and Gerecht takes it as a reason to deploy more willpower.


















I think what the right-wingers are up to is more subtle and a lot more dangerous. American military power can, pretty much, achieve any plausible military objective. The right-wing goal is to expand the notion of a military objective into what are normally thought of as political arenas. This is both wrong, for the reasons you note, and phenomenally dangerous from both foreign and domestic political standpoints.
July 10, 2006 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds a bit like the Tinkerbell strategy.
July 10, 2006 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
What we need is a Spider-Man theory of global politics. One that starts out, "With great power comes greater responsibility..."
thosethingswesay.blogspot.com
July 10, 2006 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
This willpower is, to be sure, both immensely powerful and completely impotent. It supposedly suffices to bend the entire rest of the world to our will, but it is utterly insufficient to bring americans to pay higher taxes, drive more efficient cars, or send anyone to war who would be more comfortable doing something else and doesn't have a current military obligation.
July 10, 2006 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
This of course brings to mind the classic Onion column re: Green Lantern.
July 10, 2006 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
This willpower is, to be sure, both immensely powerful and completely impotent. It supposedly suffices to bend the entire rest of the world to our will, but it is utterly insufficient to bring americans to pay higher taxes, drive more efficient cars, or send anyone to war who would be more comfortable doing something else and doesn't have a current military obligation.
In other words, one of the (though certainly far from the only) problems we face is that there is very little of Der Wille zur Macht present in the actual US civilian population. Very little desire to transform our economy and our lives into one that can support the kind of Total Effort that really would, to the extent that it is useful to do so, demonstrate Will.
So there's an extent to which we really are seeing that one of the things that is lacking in our war efforts of the last four years is Will. Bushites might fetishize it, but they cannot synthesize it. It's not there, they haven't make a true effort to rouse it (because they know the US public is only interested in world conquest to the extent that it doesn't make them late to dinner), and they're trying to fake it.
Now, I believe that obviously more than Will is needed to make a successful war effort, no matter if one's war-making and ends are just or unjust. Nobody, I think, will claim that Napolean or the Wehrmacht had insufficient Will. But it's a necessary precursor to a truly total war effort. Which is why the (appropriately, IMHO) Will-lacking US is making a decidedly less-than-total war effort.
July 10, 2006 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nobody, I think, will claim that Napolean or the Wehrmacht had insufficient Will.
Well, *Hitler* claimed that the Wehrmacht had insufficient will, and that this lack was why they kept failing to beat the Russians in 1943, and 1944, and 1945 ....
The "will, dammit!" theory is not logically refuted by Hitler's being its big exponent, but still.
July 10, 2006 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
This makes sense in another way, with Rumsfeld's focus on a "modernized" military. Basically he has DARPA, MIT Media Labs and the rest working on developing green power rings, the only problem being that they (missile defense, drone-based assassinations, etc.) don't really work.
Also - it's a key misunderstanding of the DC Comics universe. It's pretty clear that to the extent that this administration and the 101st Fighting Keyboardists have a place there, they're the bad guys, meglomaniacal mad scientists and the like.
July 10, 2006 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're on to something here, Matt. I realized many years ago that military force, while an important tool, has inherent limitations on its usefulness. You just can't change people's hearts and minds simply through force.
In fact, military force often boomerangs against its user by making its targets even more angry and determined; for example, think of how the British use of military force against some ticked-off colonists eventually resulted in Britain losing those colonies.
Right-wingers, many of whom never served in the military, seem to believe that military force is the only effective tool that can solve geopolitical disputes...and that the national will is its only limiting factor. Thus, we "lost" Vietnam because we lacked the will to fight it more forcefully. Yeah, sure, the U.S. could've "won" in Vietnam, but given the type of war it was, a guerilla insurgency where enemy was indistinguishable from friend, the only way to win it would've been to kill every man, woman and child in the country.
And that's called genocide.
July 10, 2006 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course, people seem to forget this period in Green Lantern's career...
Will does one very little good when you have no idea what your objective is. I've long asked, "What would victory in Vietnam have looked like?" And the same can be said of Iraq sevenfold.
This is why the raging id of the Right keeps slipping off message from 'freedom is on the march!" to "Kill them all!". They have no idea what the good outcome in Iraq is, except in negative terms: nobody shooting at us. And that's not a Nietzschean aspiration--though it is an Oan one.
July 10, 2006 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
The comic book fantasies of the right wing have already been acknowledged. From last year:
http://accstudios.com/f/synopsis1.htm
Granted, this is more the stuff of black helicopters than foreign policy based will to power. But are they really all that far apart in their assumptions about how the world works (purity is the only way to triumph)?
July 10, 2006 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Conan, what is best in life?"
"To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of the women!"
Doubt there are many on the right who'd disagree.
July 10, 2006 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, we could probably save a lot of time and just use John Milius movies to explain how the right thinks:
Red Dawn, Conan, Farewell to the King, Uncommon Valor...
July 10, 2006 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
This one really ought to be on the front page.
July 10, 2006 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Japanese thought they could prevail in WWII through willpower too.
July 10, 2006 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, if they'd have seen "Red Dawn", they would have realized how fast an insurgency can arise and why.
"What's the difference between us and them?"
"Because we LIVE HERE!"
And he shoots the Russian soldier...
Which makes Patrick Swayze a "terrorist" and a "dead-ender", according to Don Rumsfeld.
Not to mention the Cuban general who looks at a line of dead soldiers, and recites "Vietnam, Angola, Afghanistan, etc. - But these are MY MEN!"
"Uncommon Valor" was pretty good, too - especially the part where the politician threatens the industrialist with tax audits if he goes ahead supporting the rescue effort - and then the gang gets nearly arrested by the Thai police working with the CIA.
Hell, it ain't a Milius movie, but drag in "Rambo: Part 2", where the CIA deliberately sabotages the rescue effort.
You can learn something from these movies - don't trust the state.
July 10, 2006 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
My favorite quote is from Wolverine: "Terrorists? That's what the big army calls the little army!"
Considering that he spent most of his time fighting for the CIA in Cuba, East Germany and elsewhere in the Sixties (according to his back history), that was a little disingenuous of him, but basically correct given his alleged position as a "mutant terrorist" at the time he said it.
Read the Marvel comics about "Cable" and the "X-Force" series. They're usually labeled as "terrorists", too - even though Cable is actually supposed to turn out to be a "savior".
One could make interesting comparisons between Erik Lensherr - "Magneto" in the "X-Men" comics - and the Israelis, too.
July 10, 2006 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Currently, Green Lantern Hal Jordan, an American, is encountering difficulty because he is violating the airspace of foreign countries while chasing after criminals.
July 10, 2006 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the will of a Resistance to drive an Occupier out of their country will always be greater than the will of the invader to remain. Everything else, to me, seems to be nibbling around the edges of reasons to be there, and what the Occupier defines as the reason to stay: economic, political, “democracy” promotion, etc.
The Resistance doesn’t care about your reasons. As long as they have the support of the people they will not lose the will to win. They are staying, you are going. It may take many, many years, but as long as they have the support of the populace, you will not prevail. Paradoxically, the Occupier’s usually superior firepower increases the Resistance will, since it brutalizes the populace, and adds to Resistance ranks. This saps Occupier will still more, and this downward spiral continues until you leave.
If a negotiated settlement does occur it is actually a diminution of the Occupiers original will to “win”, and legitimizes the Resistance, and justifies their will. If they let you stay it will be on terms you would not have accepted upon arrival. You cannot dictate terms. You have to settle for conditions acceptable and advantageous to the Resistance. But it is to the Resistance advantage not to share any power, but allow you to make any economic contributions which may favor them and you. This can be to the Occupiers advantage if they want or need an ally, and can be used as a face saving measure for domestic political purposes – for both sides.
Not a lot of deep analysis here. It just seems to make common sense to me. And my reason for believing why we have lost in Iraq. As they say, “hope is not a plan” and as I say, “will is not a policy”. A change in direction could lead to a better outcome than what seems to be happening now, but this would require an actual policy. I don’t think this President is capable of that.
July 10, 2006 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I dunno. We could roll to Baghdad pretty good, but can we do that and take Tehran and take care of North Korea all at once? Doubtful. One of John Murtha's key points is that the Iraq war has degraded the US military.
I agree with your main point about the confusion of military and political objectives, but I disagree that our military power is without limit.
July 10, 2006 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the will of a Resistance to drive an Occupier out of their country will always be greater than the will of the invader to remain.
Not always. William the Conqueror put down the English resistance quite effectively. If I recall correctly, it took him about ten years, and it was over a century before the population in northern England recovered to its former levels.
I can think of several other examples where the occupiers successfully put down the resistance and stayed, at least for a long time. The Muslims in Pakistan and India. The Turks in Armenia, Greece, Palestine, and also Bosnia and Kosovo. The British in Northern Ireland. All of these of course are fine examples of the kinds of peaceful communities we would like to create more of.
July 10, 2006 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Considering that he spent most of his time fighting for the CIA in Cuba, East Germany and elsewhere in the Sixties (according to his back history), that was a little disingenuous of him, but basically correct given his alleged position as a "mutant terrorist" at the time he said it.
It doesn't have to be disingenuous. Just because he fought for the CIA doesn't mean that he didn't acknowledge some of the harsh realities of fighting, including the fact that half of what your own side syas is propaganda.
"You say I'm a dreamer. We're two of a kind. Looking for some perfect world that we both know that we'll never find." - Thompson Twins, "Hold Me Now"
July 10, 2006 6:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right wingers tend to miss alot of that though. In their world view the bad governments are always Liberals. When one of them is in Power the gov is by default good.
They also have a real problem with irony. Witness how they misinterpet "Born in the USA" or "Rockin' in the free World"
July 10, 2006 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Given his obvious sense of US Exceptionalism, I think Bush is probably more a fan of the Galactus Doctrine:
"I am he who is Galactus! My every whim is living law throughout a thousand thousand worlds! And if Earth must die that I shall live... so shall it be! For, am I not... Galactus?"
July 10, 2006 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Yeah, sure, the U.S. could've "won" in Vietnam, but given the type of war it was, a guerilla insurgency where enemy was indistinguishable from friend, the only way to win it would've been to kill every man, woman and child in the country."
No.
The US could've won in Vietnam short of killing everybody. George Ball ran the numbers in early 1965 and came up with an occupation of 1,000,000 men for 5 to 7 years to defeat the insurgency.
Likewise, the military ran the numbers for Iraq in 2002 and came up with an occupation of 400,000 men for 3 to 5 years for a successful occupation.
Insurgencies can be defeated, and occupations can be successful, but they require a very heavy boots on the ground profile.
The fatal mistake of both LBJ and GWB is to mismatch war objectives with resource commitments. Doing these things halfway is an almost certain guarantee of failure. As with the favored military motto, hope is not a plan.
You have to either summon the political will to allocate the necessary resources, or you have to be more modest in your war aims.
July 11, 2006 4:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
"think of how the British use of military force against some ticked-off colonists eventually resulted in Britain losing those colonies."
Of course, it was the British use of military force that resulted in Britain holding those colonies for centuries in the first place.
It was a combination of British resource bankruptcy after two world wars, along with the collapse of the intellectual underpinnings of colonialism, that resulted in loss of their colonies.
July 11, 2006 4:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, your are right, and I apologize for being too general in my comment. I was thinking of two more contemporaneous insurgencies: Vietnam, of which I am personally familiar, and Iraq; which I certainly think has some resemblance to it.
Perhaps, more than I should, I tend to think off of the “top of my head”, but if you knew what was going on at times on the inside you’d be grateful to be spared.
Anyway, thanks for keeping me on my toes. I can’t promise it will never happen again, but at my age, there are 3 certainties I face: death, taxes, and being wrong about something or other.
July 11, 2006 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
George Ball ran the numbers in early 1965...
That is in the running for weakest evidense yet in one of our countries longest arguments.
July 11, 2006 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
"That is in the running for weakest evidense yet in one of our countries longest arguments."
George Ball is remarkable for basically being right about everything he ever touched.
But if that's not good enough for you, the general military rule is that you can defeat an insurgency with a 10 - 1 advantage in troops. The necessary ratio is quite a bit lower for an advanced military today, due to advances in military technology, but 10 - 1 was the gold standard 40 years ago.
July 11, 2006 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I would seriously have to question this, and I would point to the current Iraq situation as counter-evidence.
sPh
July 11, 2006 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
You still didn't have a viable government that had credibility with the people in South Vietnam. So after that 5-7 year occupation and the exit of those million troops what would happen?
July 11, 2006 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
While I think Americans have a cultural bias towards wanting to believe that "the Occupier" always loses, the historical record is much more complex than that. (Sorry, as a historian I can't help myself from saying that!)
Two pre-modern examples that are noteworthy, in addition to the Norman occupation of England (that one deserves an asterisk because of eventual complete assimilation, though I wouldn't venture to say how long that took).
First, the suppression of Catharism in southern France, which also represented a political takeover of the south by the French north. It's fascinating for several reasons, including the overt religious dimension. The short answer is that 40 years of war (without overwhelming force, but with substantial advantage after the half-way point) did end resistance. However, the key element was not military force: it was the intervention (indeed, the invention) of some extremely powerful and sophisticated methods of discovering and suppressing dissent, methods that intelligently built on an existing base of Catholic acceptance, mobilized and transformed that (tolerant) Catholic population into an intolerant third force, and ruthlessly hunted down dissenters for the better part of a century. We call it "the Inquisition," and it has proved its effectiveness many times since.
Example 2, with more ambigous overtones: the suppression of independent Bohemia after 1618, with the concurrent elimination of Protestantism. The Habsburgs, working together with a church that had kept improving its tools, succeeded splendidly in suppressing resistance. In fact, (like Southern France), Bohemia is almost entirely Catholic, to this day. But I have to tell a story about visiting Prague in the mid-1980s, and touring the Hradschin. Our guide was an extremely educated and pleasant man. As he led us towards the castle gate, he gave a brief introduction. The early history of the Bohemian crown, the glory days of Charles the IV, the struggles over Jan Hus and his ideas...it was all there. He continued: "In 1532, the Habsburgs became Kings of Bohemia....[pause for a beat]...In 1918, ...."
Yes, you can suppress both resistance and dissent, given sufficient military force for conquest _and_ sufficient (and sufficiently ruthless and motivated) ideological support mechanisms. But suppressing memory...THAT's hard!
July 11, 2006 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I would seriously have to question this, and I would point to the current Iraq situation as counter-evidence."
We don't have nearly enough boots on the ground in Iraq to have an adequate ratio. If you figure 50k insurgents, then you'd need 500k occupiers to do 10 - 1. I'd guess we could probably get away with "only" 350k - 400k Americans due to the impressive state of our technology.
In other words, I only think the tech helps at the margins. You still need a hella lot of troops to do a peace-keeping occupation.
July 11, 2006 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's hilarious you bring him up, since Thanos - my "Main Man" in the Marvel pantheon - recently literally gave Galactus a LECTURE about how Galactus can do whatever he wants, but even HE can't stand against a universe united against him - something Thanos himself went through quite a few story arcs to learn (and it's not yet certain that even he believes it).
The lecture could have been given to either Bush or Israel with equal applicability.
July 11, 2006 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I doubt either result is true.
The problem with "the numbers" concept is that it presupposes a viable political result in the first place. If that isn't feasible due to errors in the political or social calculations, the numbers for actually keeping an insurgency "suppressed" are irrelevant. Once the numbers change - when the occupiars leave - the insurgency merely creates itself then.
The 10-to-1 ratio is strictly how many troops you need to keep the insurgency for being able to operate at will - not so much whether the insurgency actually exists or not. And it hasn't even been proven in enough insurgencies to be true in the general case. It's a war gamer's guess.
Also the numbers COULD be less given a technological edge, or they COULD be worse if the technological edge, or other "edges" - such as for instance the massive amount of armaments and military trained personnel available to the insurgents in Iraq from day one - are different.
The result in both Vietnam and Iraq is that the US simply could never have "won" in any significant sense - certainly not in the sense of "democratizing" Iraq to the degree the neocons suggested.
July 11, 2006 6:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
You need to reread the recent articles on the past British occupation of Afghanistan - and how 16,000 of their troops were massacred there.
The longer you use military force to hold onto a colony, the worse your defeat is going to be.
THAT is the lesson. It's not a lesson that can be used to justify the initial conquest, however long historically that may have been in certain instances.
July 11, 2006 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whatever one thinks of Wolverine, you gotta admit he knows the harsh realities of fighting, as one of the earliest examples of the "crazy superhero" subgenre.
It still isn't clear what his political views really were back then - or whether he was just fighting because he liked to fight, which I think is the most likely. Not to mention that he was brainwashed on top of it.
He fought against the Germans in the Spanish Civil War, though, apparently by choice, which says something.
July 11, 2006 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Whatever one thinks of Wolverine, you gotta admit he knows the harsh realities of fighting, as one of the earliest examples of the "crazy superhero" subgenre.
It still isn't clear what his political views really were back then - or whether he was just fighting because he liked to fight, which I think is the most likely. Not to mention that he was brainwashed on top of it.
He fought against the Germans in the Spanish Civil War, though, apparently by choice, which says something."
Um, guys this is getting WAY too close to a RedState paen to "Jack Bauer" and Protein Wisdoms use of Kaiser Sose (Usual Suspect) as a "authority" on bad-assitude.
Everything wolverine "says" is actually being said by Comic Book writers who mostly don't have a clue about how any of this works in the real world. His words are NOT coming from an experienced vet - they are coming from a guy who went to art school.
July 11, 2006 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, but if you aren't familiar with Marvel Comics, those guys are VERY good at getting it right.
Read the "Punisher Armory" series about the Punisher's weaponry some time. Real stuff.
That's one of the great things about Marvel even from back in the Sixties - no matter how nutty the concept, they can find a way to make it seem real and relevant.
You gotta remember, some of these characters have "histories" going back FORTY YEARS now - more than any literary characters in history, I suspect. And the fans get REALLY upset if you violate the history or "psychology" of the character, even accidentally. Some writers try that on occasion, to "revitalize" the character, but it rarely lasts.
Wolverine has as much of a specific nature as most people by now, and you can pretty much guess the character's reaction on any topic. The writers work to keep it that way because that's how you keep the fans buying the comics.
July 11, 2006 10:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
“George Ball ran the numbers in early 1965 and came up with an occupation of 1,000,000 men for 5 to 7 years to defeat the insurgency.” – Petey
I cannot imagine what kind of calculation could be made to quantify such a thing. The variables involved would be overwhelming. There are the obvious tangibles such as: terrain, geographic area, population (but this is not static in number or location), number of troops (we know ours, but not theirs), weaponry (we know ours, but not theirs). We would have to have unlimited omniscience to conclude some things. Then you have to consider weather conditions, time of day for operations, amount of resources (both men and materiel) to apply to each situation. Of course, you are not the only one who gets to determine when, why, where, or how an action will take place.
I have a Vietnam experience I have some reluctance to share, but I believe it is illustrative of why it isn’t realistic to say a certain friendly to enemy troop ratio will win over an insurgency:
Two platoons of Marines went out on an operation from our battalion base at Camp Carroll. It was determined by our Intelligence people, somewhere in Da Nang, that there might be an NVA infiltration route in the area. Our area of operation extended out from Camp Carroll northeast to Cam Lo, and west to the Rockpile. We ended up in very dense hilly jungle. My platoon was winding its way down into a narrow jungle valley, while the other platoon was somewhere above us on a ridge. We did not know each other’s exact locations. No GPS in those days, and maps were old, not accurate, and useless in such jungle. But the denseness of the jungle, and the high hills made it impossible to know exactly where we were, let alone the other platoon’s position.
I was the Platoon Leaders (Lt.) radio operator. He ordered us to stop our patrol, and to see if I could raise the other platoon on the radio, to get an idea where we were in relation to each other. I did this. And yes, they were somewhere above us on that ridge, but we still didn’t know exactly where. We sat at our location for about five minutes when the Lt. said to me: “Corporal we’ve sat here too long, I don’t like this, we’re moving out, now”! The Lt. stood to give the order to move out.
At that very moment a short burst of automatic rifle fire came at us. Two Marines had been leaning, talking, side-by-side, against a tree, about six feet away from the Lt. and I. The first was killed instantly, the second severely wounded. Immediately, we returned fire into the trees above us, but we had no idea where this fire had come from. We assumed a sniper was in a tree. The sniper could have been in a “spider” hole in the side of the opposite hill, but we had no way of knowing. Then an urgent “cease fire” came over my radio. We had fired into the other platoon above on the ridge. Fortunately we inflicted no casualties on them. But we now knew their position.
It was getting late and would be dark soon. We had to get the body and the wounded Marine to a place for a Medi-Vac. We also had no idea whether this was a lone sniper, or part of a larger force that now knew our position. We made our way up the ridge to find the other platoon. We did, and we linked up. Unfortunately, it began to rain hard, it was getting dark fast, and there was no time to find anything to be made into a clearing for a helicopter. But by then the wounded Marine had died, too – no need for a Medi-Vac, now.
We did the only thing we could at the time: the terrain, hardness of the ground, the fast oncoming darkness, made digging fighting holes impossible. We set out positions, as best we could, to provide fields of fire in a 360. We did the only thing we could do for the night; sit awake, nearly shoulder to shoulder, and hope there would be no NVA attack on us. There wasn’t. The next morning we found a place along the ridge for the Medi-Vac. The Battalion commander called off the operation, and we returned to Camp Carroll.
I realize this is a long, round about way to make a point, but that point is this: We were two rifle platoons, with some men from the weapons platoon included. I guess we were about 60 in number. We suffered two KIA, and the operation was halted. Our air superiority, or artillery from Camp Carroll would have done us no good in that rainy, dense jungle. Especially since we weren’t sure of our location. We had a ratio of 60 to 1 over the enemy, and yet we had the situation turn on us in a bad way.
How do you calculate for these kinds of things – you can’t. And they are frequent occurrences in insurgent warfare. Most of us were extremely lucky on that day – luck, another variable you can’t quantify. Several weeks later we were not so lucky, and lost almost 80% of our Battalion; including the Battalion CO, and the Sergeant Major. Would a higher ratio of us to them change that outcome? Who knows? We didn’t know how many NVA were in the fight, but they knew where we were, and maybe our strength, too. They had better intelligence; their fields of fire were too well planned – not easy to quantify field intelligence, either. It’s been said “the plan” is the first thing to go in a battle – how do you factor that into the calculation?
So, saying we would have won Vietnam if only we had a 10-1, or 20-1, or even a 50-1 ratio may have been the “gold standard 40 years ago”, it just seems to me to be wishing away reality – and I see us doing it yet again. I truly don’t expect the outcome to be any different this time, and putting more of our “boots on the ground” is not going to change that. George Ball may have been right about many things in his life, but this is not one of them.
July 12, 2006 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good post. Now I want to “run some numbers” and you can bet these will be rock solid perfect and irrefutable.
Unless they are wrong.
All agree that he ratio of support and non-combatants to the number of men who are in positions that are intended to take the action to the enemy is quite high. I’ve heard figures from credible sources ranging from eighteen to one to eight to one starting with WWII through the present.
Let’s look at some possibly credible figures. Ten support troops for every man expected to be in a position that the army has trained him for, to take direct action to defeat the insurgency. To put ten thousand in this position requires a commitment of one hundred and ten thousand personnel. Now we have ten thousand soldiers to send on “missions” against people we cannot identify who hide among other people we are supposed to protect but who largely support the insurgents, while the enemy has one hundred and ten thousand targets. Also, many of the ten thousand are busy protecting the hundred thousand. I know that the hundred thousand are trained to fight also, that when they are attacked they will fight as bravely as anyone else and often effectively, but when they are fighting it is because they are reacting to an attack by the enemy, an attack that came at the time and the place that the enemy chose.
I suspect, and recent stories suggest, that some of the people going back again and again are getting an attitude problem. It only takes one soldier with a bad tude and an m-16 to create another two or three generations of “terrorists”.
I just don’t see things working out so well, but then, I wasn't ever very good at math.
July 12, 2006 8:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed - that "10-to-1" ratio I think implies ten to one in COMBAT troops, not combat AND support troops.
So the ACTUAL ratio is 100 to one, given the ten to one ratio in support troops to combat troops.
I've heard that even at the height of our forces in Iraq, there were only 20,000 or so combat troops in Iraq. And of course, some of those were guys from the motor pool doing duty as convoy guards or whatever - not exactly the point of the 10 to 1 ratio against insurgents.
Whereas the ten to one ratio for combat troops to insurgents implies ten actual combat troops versus one insurgent - and that is merely to make it difficult for the insurgents to operate "at will" - not to actually defeat or kill them all.
In Iraq today, you'd need at LEAST TWO MILLION troops to limit the insurgency's ability to strike at will given the insurgency strength at 20-40,000 and a ten to one ratio of combat troops backed up by a ten to one ratio of support troops - and I'd say even that is unlikely given the urban nature of the conflict.
July 13, 2006 12:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
The conservatives are ignoring one other key lesson of the Green Lantern comics: even with an omnipotent weapon and all the will in the galaxy, you are still always susceptible to getting bonked over the head with a rock and knocked unconscious.
July 16, 2006 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting. While I recognize the Inquisition was created partially to deal with the Catharites, between the Albigensian Crusade and the lack of replacements when your core believers are celibate, would the Cathars have survived long even without the Inquisition? Did they still have critical mass after Beziers and Carcassonne?
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
July 17, 2006 2:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
While I think those force ratios are generally accurate, with adjustments for the type of combat and if technology can act as a force multiplier, the sine qua non of a successful counterinsurgency, short of genocide against the rebels, is the existence of a reasonably trusted government with which the bulk of the population identifies. One of the best examples is Magsaysay's campaign against the Filipino Huks, where he both visibly cut corruption in the government, and also identified and corrected problems in the rural areas of greatest guerilla strength.
In contrast, South Vietnam went from the autocracy of the Diems to a series of kleptocracy military governments. Ironically, some of the better successes were in areas where the locals perceived the US as the government, such as the Montagnards in II Corps Tactical Zone, who revolted against Vietnamese authority and asked for US aid.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
July 17, 2006 3:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget "Red Scorpion," a piece of work by Jack Abramoff.
Tagline: He's a human killing machine. Taught to stalk. Trained to kill. Programmed to destroy. He's played by their rules... Until now.
July 19, 2006 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's only genocide when your enemies do it!
When WE drop more bombs on South Vietnam than were used in all WWII, killing untold thousands of people, the vast majority of whom were non-combatants, that's not genocide.
Under the state-absolutist paradigm that right-wingers take for granted as a premise:
1. We're good by definition. Therefore everything we do is "good" a priori.
2. Facts are irrelevant to the truth of paragraph #1. So, any facts -- torture of prisoners, rape of innocent Iraqi women, killing entire families when we target the "wrong house", none of this is relevant. Nothing can possibly disprove the premise that "we're good because we're American" because it's a postulate that doesn't rely upon factual support.
3. Since we're good by definition, anyone who questions or criticizes automatically is "supporting the enemy", "disloyal", "traitor" "undermining", etc.
4. It's actually WORSE if the criticism is true (by which rightists mean officially admitted or undeniable photographic evidence), since this paints the U.S. in a bad light.
The only way to fight this is head on. To insist that facts DO matter and that the U.S. is NOT good by definition. To state boldly that we're the loyal ones, and that blind obedience to the President when he's wrong is "disloyal" -- harming the country.
July 20, 2006 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Things that you or I might take as demonstrating the limited utility of military power to accomplish certain kinds of things are, instead, taken as evidence of lack of will.
And this was precisely the revisionist argument after Vietnam - that we didn't have the will to complete the job. Plus ca change....
August 12, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink