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North Korea Fallout

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I'll have some thoughts of my own on the North Korean missile launches later, but for now, I highly recommend Joe Cirincione's take here.


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Basically he appears correct.

A few commenters to his piece appear to fault him for not noting that the Taepodong test was in "some sense" a "success" in that it didn't explode on the launch pad. They then immediately jump to the conclusion that it means NK "cannot be contained diplomatically" - which means what? Nothing that I can see - the phrase is meaningless, since NK doesn't seem to be going anywhere that they need "containment" - except possibly in the sense that they might sell their pathetic technology to even more patheticly technologically inept nations.

The US neocons - including the Democratic variety - on the other hand got their own "success" by being able to use these tests to ratchet up their rhetoric over NK and stimulate more public fear as usual.

We'll get a war going with North Korea someday, of that I have no doubt. But it may be a while, since Iran has top priority - mostly because NK could actually kick the US's ass for a while whereas Iran can't - and there's no oil in NK.

But sooner or later, we will have another war with North Korea - and millions, not hundreds or thousands or even scores of thousands - of civilians on both sides will die - as well as tens of thousands of US soldiers.

The fact that North Korea has produced a dozen or so nukes since Bush did it 'his way' with hard nosed negotiations, and that NK is testing ICBM's that could hit the USA should (not) make Americans sleep better.

Kim and Co. are a very dangerous bunch (unlike Saddam), & there is no chance Bush would start a war with North Korea. They are also persistent bunch and are likely to eventually succeed with their ICBM.

Brings back memories of Dubya's pontificating bluster from SOU, 2002:

"We'll be deliberate, yet time is not on our side. I will not wait on events, while dangers gather. I will not stand by, as peril draws closer and closer. The United States of America will not permit the world's most dangerous regimes to threaten us with the world's most destructive weapons."

Looks like time is on the evildoers side as NK perfects it's missile, Iran bides it's time enriching uranium, and America bleeds in the terrorist training ground of a broken Iraqi state.  


Kim is only dangerous to South Korea, their missiles are irrelevant to the US strategically and tactically (although they MIGHT be useful as weapons against the US Navy or Japan at some point, especially with nuke warheads), Bush IS looking for a war with North Korea some day, and Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapons program as far as everyone can tell - nor would it matter to the US if they did.

Kim is only dangerous to South Korea.

South Korea and Japan, which has been subject to covert hostile actions dating back to the 70s, when there were a series of kidnappings tied to the DPRK (when I lived on the Sea of Japan, in the early 90s, they still had signs up warning beachgoers to be wary of strange boats).  I think the assumption of military planners in Japan is that they will probably get hit, in the event of a war, one way or another (it doesn't help, I suppose, that Japan is going out of it's way to piss off other East Asian nations these days). 

Looking at something with the power of the nation, is not something to ignore. Finding the ablity of your own leadership is not something the world might want. In looking at the North Korean fight is not that much of my worry, are you going to find that war a sign. Why not look into the area of a neutural finding giving the one perspective a new name. Your going to tell me that there are no new findings for a air of peace. Fine go and look at the way we treated the stage peace brought us, did we noticed that the same sign are being given off by us...


And Japan has been acting as the US's "stalking horse" with regard to NK for some time now.

The Japanese government apparently feels that if they can provoke NK into a war with the South and the US, it will inevitably destroy South Korea's industrial sector as well - a plus for Japan since South Korea is a major trade competitor, doing more business with China than the US does, actually, last I heard.

So here you see the Japanese motivation for ratcheting up the rhetoric against NK. Of course, the historical animosity is no surprise, given that Japan once invaded Korea - and got their asses kicked.

Wrong, NK missiles are entirely relevant to the USA. If nothing else they provide fodder for the proven to never hit anything bottomless $40 billion dollar to date blackhole called the National Missile Defense system which Bush recently 'activated' in Alaska. Gotta have a bogeyman to make money!


Too true.

Update Fri July 7 about reading Joe Cirincione's recommended piece

The Wonk site will be down until July 17

July 6 you cannot read Joe Cirincione's take. Message on the linked site:

Thursday July 6, 3pm PST - The Wonk load has been crashing our shared server.
We've been given the boot.
We're going to try to push through a speedy migration, but the truth is we may be facing an extended outage.

Well, 'got their asses kicked' kind of underestimates the level of animosity: Japan colonized Korea for a generation, forbid any language but Japanese in Korean schools, and forced a great many Koreans into slave labor.  Anti-Korean animus in Japan has never particularly gone away, and most Koreans in Japan have adopted Japanese names and try  very hard to keep their ethnicity secret.  

But the idea that Japan wants a war on the Korean penninsula is pretty hard to swallow, especially now that the DPRK has the bomb.  It's not as though there is that much distance spanned by the "Sea of Japan."  And even leaving out the idea that Japan would be a military target, I'd think that a war that kills hundreds of thousands of East Asians, even if it wiped out the industrial capacity of one competitor, wouldn't be especially good for Japan, either, from an economic standpoint.


Oh, I agree that Japan thinking they're going to get something out of this is idiotic - but there is no shortage of idiots in any state, and Japan is no exception.

Keep in mind that Japan still has a mindset that believes they are the top of the food chain - as is illustrated by the fact that third generation Koreans in Japan have to carry ID that says so.

So it's no surprise to me that they think they can rely on the US to take NK down without taking any heavy hits themselves.

And frankly, they might be able to - IF one thinks only of missiles. Since NK doesn't have any way to put a nuclear warhead on a missile at this point, Japan doesn't have to worry about that. What Japan forgets, however, is that NK has submarines and submersibles and thousands of Special Forces troops trained to infiltrate from those subs. If NK puts a sub into Tokyo Bay with a nuclear weapon, Japan is going to regret having been the US's stalking horse.

It is this miscalculation I think that allows Japan to think they can get away with absorbing a war with NK and reaping the benefits of SK's destruction.

I think that Japan is well aware of the threat that a nuclear NK would prove to the Japanese mainland.  One sign is that, when we were in the first nuclear crisis back in 1993 or so, there was a leak to the press in Japan about 70 kilos of plutonium from a Japanese reactor being unaccounted for, which I took to be a message to Pyonyang that two could play at that game.

Just to clarify, when you say that 3rd Gen. Koreans have to carry ID saying so, what they have to carry is the standard "Gaijin Tourokusho" that all non-naturalized Japanese have to carry, which is to say that, no matter how many generations it is, they do not get to consider themselves citizens.  That's not better in principle than an ID that says they are Korean - in principle it may even be worse, but in practice it's maybe slightly better - but it's a little different.


Yes, I wasn't implying that ONLY Koreans had to do that.

I still think Japan is playing a game with the North for the benefit of the US - and the supposed benefit of themselves - without fully recognizing how risky that game is for them.

Either that, or they're still pissed at the Koreans for past problems.

Either way, it could cost them to put themselves on the wrong side of any coming war with NK. They'd be better off playing neutral.

I think they're definitely still pissed off - the abductions of the 70s, when I lived there ten years ago, were still vivid, and it came up recently with the brouhaha that led to the repatriation of a couple of Japanese who had been kidnapped and taken to the DPRK (including one married to the American defector).

Thanks for the perspective - I'm still not sure I agree with you, but I'll definitely watch events over the Sea of Japan with an eye to seeing if you're right.

This article doesn't necessarily prove your point or mine, but it's surely fuel on the fire.

Japan Steps up Pressure on North Korea, NY Times


Yes, Japan is now seriously considering whether they should put in place legislation allowing them to pre-emptively attack North Korea if North Korea continues its missile tests.

This is unlikely to actually occur - I don't think Japan is THAT stupid or greedy. Not that North Korea could really do much to Japan other than fire missiles at it - and vice versa - the North wouldn't initiate a nuclear sub infiltration under that scenario - too risky.

But it does show that Japan is very happy to be pushing North Korea. Either that or it must be that "samurai" attitude cropping up again, or saving "face", or something.

When I think about it, I don't think this has anything to do with NK. 

I mean, it does, and I think there is considerable worry there, especially outside the political classes.  But for the Liberal Democrats, the past few years have seen an opportunity to curry favor on the right, by taking advantage of the fact that the die-hard pacifist generation that lived through WWII is disappearing, and the younger voters don't have the historical memory that led their elders to vigorously oppose Japanese militarism. 

When I was there, in the 80s and early 90s, the extreme right wing had enough seats in parliment, and enough activists on the ground to push a hard militarist agenda, and make mainstream politicians uncomfortable.  Today, I think that these politicians think that appeasing the right also resonates with young, more centrist voters who simply think that having an unconstrained military is just part of the soverign dignity any nation expects.

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