More intimations
Out here in Aspen talkathons I get the strong sense the Republican ticket (as always decided well in advance) will be McCain for President, Jeb Bush for Vice President. The former has by far the most appeal to independents. The latter delivers Florida and continues the dynasty. The Democrats would have to pick a ticket that could win in Ohio and also compete in Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and perhaps Colorado. For the VP slot think of the governors of Ariz or New Mexico; in the top position, think: who can carry Ohio? As goes Ohio, so goes the Nation.
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I know nothing about Napolitano beyond the fact that she is from Arizona and is a woman. Both seem like good things in a Dem VP candidate, especially if HRC doesn't get the nomination.
July 3, 2006 7:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
IMHO, the concept of dynasty could be used successfully against both the Bush and Clinton candidacies. Who, except die-hard Bushists and Clintonistas and possibly the mediots, will want to continue the rancor of the past two decades?
July 3, 2006 7:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
My theory is that it will be Frist for President and a similar base-exciter/general loser for VP. The Radicals will also do everything they can to draw Hillary into the race and see her nominated.
The ultimate goal? Hillary as President in 2009 with at least one house in Radical (Republican) hands. Democrats charged with cleaning up the incredibly large mess that exists as of that date. With bitter opposition from the House (say) and Fox News, the Democratic President will of course fail.
Then on to 2012 and the Jeb/someone ticket.
sPh
July 3, 2006 8:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Moreover, if we end up with 24+ years of two families controlling the presidency, what happens to the idea that anyone can grow up to be president?
July 3, 2006 8:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nice plotting. Only thing I would change is that it will be George P. Bush in 2012, not Jeb.
July 3, 2006 8:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
If I were McCain, I would be on the watch for Jodie Foster fans...
-Dave Adams-
July 3, 2006 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain has played the media very savvily. Whoever his Dem opponent would be, they would be guaranteed to get the Gore 00 treatment from the media. No matter how much the Dems try to cuddle up to their "buddies" in the media.
McCain may yet be tripped up by his simple-minded support for the Iraq war.
Unless his opponent is HRC, who has basically abdicated the issue.
July 3, 2006 7:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd be very surprised if McCain gets the nom. The GOP is still riding with the Right, and they won't be satisfied with McCain now that they've had a true believer. Frist is a bumbler, so it won't be him, either. Jeb is also out, because the dynasty has been exhausted and Jeb's creepy anyway. The GOP erred when they ran George instead of Jeb, but it's too late now to make up for it.
I'm betting the GOP will do what it does best: find an empty, charismatic vessel it can fill with its policies (think Reagan, Bush II), quickly kneecap all other comers in the primaries (wear your shinguards, McCain and Giuliani!), and cruise with nearly undiminished strength to the final election. The best the Dems can do with such a scenario, should it arise, is campaign for Giuliani.
July 4, 2006 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Re: The GOP is still riding with the Right, and they won't be satisfied with McCain now that they've had a true believer.
George W Bush is no more a true believer than McCain is (which is too say they are both real conservatives, though occasionally off the beaten rightwing path on this or that issue). Though to be sure Bush is more pliable and easier to manipulate, while the GOP Powers That Be fear McCain would be nobody but his own man and as such might not toe the corporatist line when it conflicted with his principles.
As for Jeb, no he will not run for anything in 2008. The public will be so devoutly sick of all things Bush, that the GOP will be looking for some total unBush on all its tickets, in much the aasme way that in 2000 they were careful to run candidates who had no connection with the Monicagate fiasco with which the public was also then quite disgusted.
July 4, 2006 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Regardless of who gets the nod, charges of dynasty never seem to amount to much, and I doubt they will counter the added name recognition. If you think some other candidates are going to result in less rancor, let's just say I think you are going to be VERY disappointed.
July 10, 2006 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink