This Week On America Abroad
This week on TPMCafe's America Abroad, the bloggers are talking about...
Predicting the Future: What Will Iraq Look Like In 2010?
The Senate voted overwhelmingly yesterday to shelve an amendment calling for the withdrawal of the majority of U.S. troops by the close of 2006. As debate about the future of America's involvement in Iraq raged on Capitol Hill, America Abroad's Anne-Marie Slaughter shared remarks from a recent Princeton University panel on what Iraq will look like in 2010. The speaker, retired CIA Arabist Ray Close, outlined eight real threats in the region other than Iraq: Afghanistan, Iran, Israel-Palestine, Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and a domestic terrorist attack originating in the Middle East. On the issue of the U.S. presence in the region, Close described what he sees as a catch-22: "At the moment, a continued large US military presence in Iraq is the most effective barrier to a complete breakdown into civil war...CATCH-22: The American military presence is also the main cause and inspiration behind growing opposition BOTH to the US occupation AND to the credibility and legitimacy of those leadership elements in Iraqi society on whom a future of unity, stability and political moderation critically depend. I have always maintained that in the final analysis, the person or the group that ends up running Iraq, if the country remains in one piece, will have established his or its credibility and legitimacy by the degree to which it has successfully DEFIED and OPPOSED the American military occupation, not cooperated with it."
America Abroad's Recommended Reading
As summer begins, America Abroad's bloggers shared some recommended foreign policy reading this week. Juliette Kayyem recommended the "Terrorism Index" from the Center for American Progress and Foreign Policy magazine, calling it, "an interesting read showing broad political concensus that the world is very dangerous and that the Iraq war is in whole, or part, responsible for that. Not surprising for readers of this blog, but shows that when experts are asked, anonymously, what really is going on, agreement and lots of pessimism reign." Bruce Jentleson recommended Tom Plate's "Pacific Perspectives" columns for all those "who like me are higher on interest than knowledge about Asia." Anne-Marie Slaughter linked to her thoughts on The Guardian blog about the controversy over Mark Malloch Brown's criticism of the Bush Administration's interactions with the U.N. Michael Levi discussed Steve Aftergood's report on Secrecy News that the National Security Archive had filed suit against the CIA.. And John Ikenberry used Katrina vanden Heuvel's post on The Washington Note as a jumping off point for a discussion of the search for a liberal foreign policy, declaring, "The big issue for debate is whether American foreign policy in the years ahead should be centered on a “war on terror” or be rethought altogether."
In Other News On America Abroad
* Juliette Kayyem asked, "What do we do when our public diplomacy office needs public diplomacy?" as it turns out that Karen Hughes' comments on the Guantanamo suicides turned out to be the most damaging for the Administration.
* Michael Levi advocated more competition among American Internet providers. "The United States needs to steal a page from Japan and Europe, introducing much broader competition in broadband provision that might produce a multi-tiered internet, but that would lead to faster access for everyone, to everywhere."
* As news was confirmed that a member of Zarqawi's inner circle turned him in, Juliette Kayyem drew lessons for the use of human intelligence.
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I must say that I agree with your last point. The current state of the conflict in Iraq is not conducive to the establishment of a pro-Western government. And why should it be? We can't force Western-style democracy into a Middle-Eastern political culture.
We should be using our resources to combat "terror" in other ways too, like adressing the Millennium Development Goals. The impoverished conditions that much of the world lives in are breeding grounds for extremism. We can't afford to ignore global poverty if we truly want peace for ourselves and for the rest of the world.
June 16, 2006 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Can I make a suggestion? How would it be if this site paid some actual, serious, detailed attention to Latin America? For example, there is an election coming up in Mexico on Sunday. It's quite important, and the political atmosphere in Mexico is volatile. Here's a thought: what's going on in Latin America may actually be more important than the so-called "War on Terror"! Objectively, if you know what I mean.
June 28, 2006 5:59 AM | Reply | Permalink