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Shades of '93?

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Reading through the latest NBC News/WSJ poll this morning, something jumped out at me: by a margin of 35 points, respondents believe that the Democratic party would do a better job of dealing with health care than the Republican party. While it's certainly not news that Americans trust the Democrats on this issue, they haven't given them this kind of advantage since March of 1993, when the margin was 48 points. And we all know what happened in 1993.

Today, health care reform feels like more of a sleeper issue, playing second fiddle to other domestic issues like immigration and, of course, to foreign policy issues like the war in Iraq. It shows up in poll after poll as one of Americans' top concerns, and a simple glance at the cost trajectory of health insurance goes a long way towards explaining why. But it isn't just the cost increases alone, it's also that, as long as we have an employment-based health system, health care will be inextricably linked to the economy or, more precisely, to the way in which economic growth is distributed.

In 1993, the economy was just downright bad, and it was reflected in the public's angst over health care. Today, the economic indicators are healthier, but the productivity gains are disproportionately going to workers at the high end of the income spectrum. Just as wages have stagnated in the face of growing productivity, health benefits are also eroding while the economy is growing, and this is being reflected in the public's angst over health care.

As the cost of health insurance grows higher and higher, employers looking to trim their payroll expenses are contributing a smaller portion of the cost of insurance for their workers or are not offering the benefit at all. Just as the dollars are increasingly going to those at the top, so too are the benefits. No wonder Americans are feeling skittish about the economy.


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