Clinton on Iraq
Hmm...once again, I think I agree with Jonah Goldberg. Deborah Orin writes that Hillary Clinton is "twisting herself in bizarre pretzel shapes as she claims to be against President Bush's 'open-ended commitment,' but also against setting 'a date certain' to withdraw." Mickey Kaus says that's politically problematic, but actually "the right position."
I sympathize with that view. There are a lot of problems with a firm deadline, which one can find rehearsed elsewhere. The question, however, is what besides a firm deadline will avoid an open-ended commitment. False choices should be avoided, but at the same time simply because one would like to find a third way doesn't mean one is actually there. The best I can come up with is that one could set a plan for withdrawing based on benchmarks rather than dates and then make sure that the benchmarks are very modest and easily achievable so you know we'll be getting out reasonably soon. That said, my point would be that if you're against an open-ended commitment you need to do something likely to make our commitment something other than open-ended. Simply saying the commitment isn't open-ended doesn't get you there, you need some way to close the commitment.















Ah, but Hillary is in the same bind as Bush. It's tough to think about alternatives until you have admitted that you screwed up to begin with.
As long as you are twisting your mind around convoluted excuses to explain why an obviously disastrous decision was really right, you just can't think straight about alternatives.
This is true partly because you just can't admit that selecting from the only choices you have left amounts to picking a least bad option.
And, the longer you refuse to face the music, the worse the options become. Sadly, it is a reasonable test for someone with presidential aspirations.
June 16, 2006 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Instead of a dealine one could set a series of achievements that have to be reached or seen never going to be reached.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
June 16, 2006 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Haven't we been already been spoon fed this long list of achievements? i.e. Usay is dead, Sadaam is captured, provisional government, real government, Zarquawi is dead? Why aren't they evidence that we can leave?
During one of the 2004 TV debates, Kerry talked about guaranteeing the Iraqis we don't have "designs" on their country, and pretty much nobody even mentioned it, even though it was an important difference between Bush's policy. We just got this MSM line that "Kerry says he'd do what Bush would do, only better."
June 16, 2006 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Once again, this all misses the central point that needs made.
That would be the incompetence of Dear Leader and the rubber stamp Congress.
Kerry did the right thing by standing up and openly and honestly admitting "I was wrong to support the invasion of Iraq."
More Dems need to follow that example or be prepared to be replaced.
Ask the American public what they think of those who led the country astray (as compared to say asking a beltway insider), knowingly or not.
They're not happy with Dear Leader and even less so with the rubber stampers.
Admit mistakes, change course and try to save this country before its too late.
All this prevaricating so as not to admit error is a professional politician's ploy to save ass, not to look out for the best interests of our country and it makes me damn mad.
Also, when the Corner does the framing, the picture is guaranteed to be damn ugly. Don't fall for that. Lucianne's spoor cannot be correct almost by definition.
June 16, 2006 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why not hold an Iraqi referendum on the continued presence of our troops? I can't see any disadvantages of a referendum versus the baseline "change nothing" policy we have now. In fact, it should be an obvious step: if we're in the business of promoting democracy, we're obligated to let Iraqis themselves decide whether our military should remain in their nation.
If the result was "yes," then our presence would have greater legitimacy. Of course, there would be complaints about a rigged vote, but I can't see how we could possibly become any less credible in the Arab world. If the result was "no," then we would have an immediate exit without all the negative connotations associated with "cutting and running" and "abandoning the Iraqis": after all, we'd be honoring the popular will. It's not a perfect solution, but I think it's almost certainly the best we have now.
June 16, 2006 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Perfect! If we truly are in Iraq to spread democracy, let them democratic process rule. It would be fabulous to see Bushco twisting themselves into pretzels trying to justify why the Iraqi people aren't capable of deciding whether they want "coalition" troops in their country.
June 16, 2006 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
First we have to stop lying to ourselves. We lost Iraq years ago. The "democracy" is a sham. Women are less free than they were under Saddam. At best, we've created a good buddy for Iran (if you assume we leave) or using the Cheney definition of best we stay forever using Iraq as our colony and democracy be damned. That's the best case. WE LOST THE WAR. Deal with it.
The only way we change the course of this nation is to step outside the box of the neo-con Beinart delusion that we are exceptional and can forever "liberate" nations without kiling their civilians, our troops, or bankrupting our children's future.
I do not believe the Democratic Party is capable of getting outside the box. I predict yet another election of both parties lying to themselves and to the American people.
June 16, 2006 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The best I can come up with is that one could set a plan for withdrawing based on benchmarks rather than dates and then make sure that the benchmarks are very modest and easily achievable so you know we'll be getting out reasonably soon."
Ah, but as someone else pointed out, what ARE the "benchmarks"?
If you haven't decided on the benchmarks, you can't decide whether they are "modest and easily achievable". In fact, you can't decide whether they are achievable at all.
In fact, deciding whether there ARE ANY benchmarks which are achievable at all appears to be the real issue here.
We had the Biden plan which was a joke.
We have the Bush "No-Plan" - which everybody just signed off on in the Senate and House - which is a joke.
One plan we DO KNOW can immediately work is immediate pullout. The only question there is: what happens next in Iraq?
Since ALL answers to that question are speculative, I'd say that plan wins hands down. It guarantees no more US troop deaths, no more Iraqi civilian deaths at the hands of US troops, no more insurgency against the occupation (whether they will then switch to being against the Iraqi government obviously is a question), no more $5-8 billion a month in bills to the US taxpayer, and so forth.
The only argument AGAINST this plan is: what happens to the Iraqi government - and perhaps what happens to the Iraqi civilians if there's a civil war?
The answer to that is obviously: the same thing that will happen WHENEVER we pull out. Exactly what plan does anybody have for changing the situation in any way that does not result in that same result?
You can speculate until the cows come home whether the Iraqi government will fall or the country fall into a civil war this year, next year, or ten or twenty years from now? At what point do we KNOW this will NOT happen? Do we stay until we DO know? Based on what evidence?
What evidence does ANYBODY have that the Iraqi military and police establishment will EVER be able to control the insurgency? What evidence does ANYBODY have that the US military presence is preventing a civil war NOW? What evidence does ANYBODY have that the US military is in fact controlling the insurgency NOW? What evidence does ANYBODY have that the Iraqi government will be considered legitimate by the Iraqi citizenry, let alone the insurgency?
The whole issue of "due date" vs "open-ended" is a red herring to avoid discussing the REAL issue: that being there isn't working AT ALL and continuing to be there isn't going to work any better either.
In other words, IF YOU HAVE NO PLAN, GET OUT! If you don't know what you're doing, STOP DOING WHAT YOU'RE DOING!
Like Pig Killer in "Max Max: Beyond Thunderdome": "Plan? There ain't no plan!"
June 16, 2006 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen "JmacSF"
San Francisco. CA
The Democrats still haven't got the message yet, apparently.
Their Contract With America II - noticeably absent - the "I" word. Send Rahm Emmanuel a messag like I did. If you received the DCCC "2006 New Directions Survey" fill it out. Tell him you aren't giving him a dime
June 16, 2006 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen "JmacSF"
San Francisco. CA
Still trying for that Slate job?? (kidding..sort of)
June 16, 2006 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I-R-A-Q
Looks like we have to spell it out for the Democrats whose leadership is once again frozen with Rovian fear.
And not to guild the lily for the upcoming funeral (in a pig's eye!), here's another number from the latest NBC/WSJ poll
More likely to support candidate who proposes total withdrawal within the next 12 months from
I-R-A-Q
McCutchen
June 16, 2006 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen "JmacSF"
San Francisco. CA
Like when the Iraqis stand up, we'll stand down?
June 16, 2006 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Our loopy president is now telling us that Iraq has its very own, independent, democratic government now. One of the jobs of any country's government is to make decisions about accepting or refusing foreign troops on their soil. So, it isn't the Iraq people who need to vote on our presence there, but the Iraqi government. And, that government seems to have decided that insurgents who kill Americans deserve amnesty, so it is kinda obvious that they don't place much value on our presence there.
Of course, the problem is that Iraq really doesn't have an independent, democratic government. They have an American backed, American approved government that looks to our "leaders" for instructions on what comes next. And, of course those instructions haven't yet included our withdrawing our forces.
Hoppy in Sacramento
June 16, 2006 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Basically, the bottom line of the "no artificial deadlines" crowd is that we have to teach Iraqis how to wage a dirty war against guerillas, with death squads, torture and massacres counteracting indiscriminate terror.
The fact is that try as we might, we are rather mediocre dirty warriors. Historically, the sociology of anti-guerilla warfare leads to a high degree of demoralization and the sorry bussiness turns very dirty. Regimes that emerge are authoritarian at best. The level of gratitude to the external helpers tends to by abysmally low. Ask Philipinos how greatful they are for getting rid of the guerillas before WWII. Ask Malesians how greatful they are for getting rid of Communist insurgency in the years that followed WWII. Ask Salvadorans and Guatemalans a similar question.
The light at the end of this tunnel is rather bleak. On the other hand, allegedly the current government is supported by "vast majority of the Iraqis". Why it would collapse after our withdrawal? It would take an internal civil war within the Shia community to achieve that, and I would doubt that.
I also doubt the "flypaper theory": what kind of glue keeps terrorists in Iraq?
June 16, 2006 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen "JmacSF"
San Francisco. CA
One has to ask Hillary with Molly Ivins, What kind of courage does it take for goodness sake?
June 16, 2006 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps 'open-ended commitment' is code for the 'enduring bases' in Iraq that the administration has spent billions building.
If there's one issue that Democrats should fight the Bush administration over, it's this. Bush should be forced to promise that all US troops will be out of Iraq before he leaves office.
June 16, 2006 7:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
You beat me to it. The full quote is:
The time has come. The choice is clear. Either you
are for this war or you are against it. To try and have
it both ways is morally wrong and politically stupid.
Democratic Consultant, Bob Shrum
June 16, 2006 8:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Iraq VP Asks Bush for Pullout Timeline
Now we know why Bush hammered on this in his press conference last week. His insistence that we wouldn't set a timetable was a message intended for the Iraqi Sunni leadership. I wonder if they heard it?
June 16, 2006 8:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder if there's a way to permanently disable Bob Shrum's "Send" button.
June 16, 2006 9:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Democrats need to keep hitting him on the costs of the war. They need to hire a kid to write some sentences that articulate what Americans could be doing with the money we are spending in Iraq. Maybe they could turn this into a contest at a middle school.
Do you ever get the feeling that Murtha is the only guy in the Congress who really gives a damn about any of this -- the dead civilians, the troops, the money?
June 17, 2006 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
"The fact is that try as we might, we are rather mediocre dirty warriors."
I'm not so sure. The School of the Americas was training torturers for years. The "advisors" we sent to El Salvador worked with the death squads - and these EXACT SAME ADVISORS were sent to Iraq a year or so ago to organize the Iraqi government counterinsurgency forces - which are now death squads engaged in sectarian warfare.
Justin Raimondo believes this was a deliberate policy decision - to terrorize the Iraqi population into submission to the occupation and the puppet government. I don't know how much evidence we have for that conclusion - except the results in Iraq.
June 17, 2006 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen "JmacSF"
San Francisco. CA
"It is time to face the facts"
Nancy Pelosi Speech - Great Iraq "Debate"
June 17, 2006 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Something that is actually specific and not just a slogan, I think.
"You say I'm a dreamer. We're two of a kind. Looking for some perfect world that we both know that we'll never find." - Thompson Twins, "Hold Me Now"
June 18, 2006 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink