This morning's announcement that Zarqawi is dead is, in the words of Joe Biden, "really, really, really, really (yes, four reallys) good news." He is right. This is good for the Iraqis most importantly, as evidenced by the spontaneous applause erupting from the Iraqi press at the announcement this morning (similar to the reaction to Bremer's announcement that Hussein had been captured.)

What now?

The fact that Zarqawi's group has also announced it on their website suggests that they are much more organized than the man himself. This is a significant interruption, but not a disruption.

I would also suspect that bin Laden will show his face/speak his voice relatively soon. He and Zarqawi had been long competitors as well, alternating between embracing each other and distancing themselves from each other. Their greatest rift was over the killing of Muslims, Indeed, Zarqawi's support outside Iraq had been seriously eroding; In Jordan, for example, his support had decreased exponentially after the wedding bombings there. What is interesting about those polls (however suspect) is that bin laden's never took a hit. Bin Laden's most recent audiotape again announced his prohibition against kiling Muslims, and that political saviness has always been the centerpiece of distinguishing himself from Zarqawi.

Thus, outside Iraq, it is simply unclear what Zarqawi's death means. The interrupted cells in Europe and Canada almost never have any ties to Zarqawi, and are often moved by bin Laden instead.

There will also likely be an upsurge of violence today and this week in Iraq in resopnse, simply to prove relevance after Zarqawi's death. Tony Blair's press conference today made the capturing entirely personal; I fear Bush will do the same. This is good for the Iraqis, but may have limited consequences for us.