Welfare Does Not Breed Persistent Poverty
One of the stated defenses of cutbacks in aid to poor families in the last decade in the US was the idea that welfare spending traps families in poverty from generation to generation. But new studies, as detailed in this week's Economist magazine (subscription) show that countries with MORE spending on the poor have LESS persistent poverty than in the US.
Contrary to many Americans' self-image, there is less social mobility from generation to generation in the United States than in supposedly class-bound Europe-- and the European states like Sweden and Norway with the highest welfare spending also had the most people born in poverty becoming middle class when they grew up:
Around three-quarters of sons born into the poorest fifth of the population in Nordic countries in the late 1950s had moved out of that category by the time they were in their early 40s. In contrast, only just over half of American men born at the bottom later moved up. This is another respect in which Britain is more like the Nordics than like America: some 70% of its poorest sons escaped from poverty within a generation...
The obvious explanation for greater mobility in the Nordic countries is their tax and welfare systems, which (especially when compared with America's) deliberately try to help the children of the poor to do better than their parents...to the extent that redistribution is an explanation, it implies the opposite: that social mobility is a product of high public spending, a bit like the low incidence of poverty or longer life expectancy (on both of which Europe also does better than America).
The other advantage for the poor in Nordic countries seems to be a better education system that provides a more equal education for the poor compared to the United States.
US Policy Went the Wrong Way: What these studies indicate is that US welfare policy went in exactly the wrong direction in the last decade. For decades, we had much lower spending on the poor and the results were less economic opportunity than in European countries. And instead of improving the system, the US merely cut off aid to many families, leaving them even more trapped in poverty, as groups like the Center for Budget Policy Priorities have highighted:
- [M]ost studies have found that between 50 to 75 percent of welfare leavers remain poor two to three years after leaving welfare.
- 42 percent of welfare leavers remain poor five years after leaving welfare compared to a 55 percent poverty rate in the first year after leaving welfare.
- A recent study of Michigan women who received TANF in 1997 found that by the fall of 2001, only one-quarter were working in “good jobs.” [jobs paying at least $7.50 per hour with health insurance or $8.50 per hour without]
- A HHS-funded study of welfare reform in Wisconsin — a state often cited as having a particularly innovative welfare reform program — found that the net income of welfare leavers in the year after they exited welfare is lower than their income prior to leaving.
Many US political leaders engage in happy talk that welfare reform was a success, but the documented reality is that both over the last few years and over the last few decades, the low level of US spending to help the poor has meant less opportunity for the children of the poor to attain the dream of a better life than the poor in Europe, where more welfare spending and fairer education systems gave them a chance to join the middle class.
A lot of rightwing propanda promoted the idea that somehow spending less to help poor people would make their lives better, but it was all a lie used to justify tax cuts for the wealthy and cuts in social programs.
As more and more evidence rolls in of the failure of "welfare reform", it's about time that we return to a commitment to spend the money to give every poor child the opportunity to reach the American Dream when they grow up.















I wonder to what extent the social mobility in the Nordic countries is the result of the relative homogeneity of the population. Other than the Saami (Lappish) people of the far north (and much more recently the immigrant tide), these countries were always very mono-ethnic and mono-cultural. Racism was never a factor. Whereas in the US both racism and also cultural factors among the poor must be considered.
May 31, 2006 5:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't have time to look into it too deep now, but I can see that one quote from that CB&PP page quoted an econimist (possibly out of context) economist Rebecca Blank, who has provided extensive evidence for welfare reform's success, and continues to make it in studies after the year that blurb quote was mined.
May 31, 2006 6:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I also notice that the paper on the spending of Nordic countries doesen't have much to do with welfare reform. The Democrats who supported welfare reform like Clinton aren't against increased social spending. Welfare reform itself wasn't about cutting spending, it was about letting individual states experiment with their own welfare systems through block grants rather than top down centralized federal control & taking measures so that those who fall back on welfare, aren't trapped there & that they can find work that will pay. It may have succeeded, it may have not, I'm of the opinion based on what I've read from independent academic studies (rather than idealogical think thanks like Heritage & CB&PP) that it's been quit e effective. But this has little to do with the merits of increased public spending.
May 31, 2006 6:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
CBPP cites study after study in the linked article showing the large numbers of folks kicked off TANF yet remaining mired in poverty.
And the cross-national comparison indicates that the US does spend far less than comparable countries. In recent years, the escalation in medical costs and Medicaid spending is often used to argue that spending on the poor is increasing in the US, but that has little to do with increasing the standard of living of poor families suffering cuts in actual cash benefits due to welfare reform.
May 31, 2006 7:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
What poor people lack is money. Policies which give them money get them out of poverty. There are many mechanisms which can be used from negative taxation to outright grants, but they all have one thing in common, they give the poor more income.
This country has a long history of belief in rugged individualism and thus there is an underlying resentment of "unearned" aid.
I recently suggested a plan as to how to eliminate poverty in the US. We can easily afford it, but overcoming the resentment is a more difficult task. My plan mostly even pays for itself as the non poor cost society less in terms of health and imprisonment public expenses.
--- Policies not Politics
Daily Landscape
May 31, 2006 7:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. Something else to consider is immigration rates: Nordic countries aren't taking in millions of poverty-stricken immigrant workers. If they were, they might have higher poverty rates, as well as more strained social welfare systems.
May 31, 2006 7:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
I should also note that while I do not wish to repeat a conservative meme (as I personally support increased social spending), sometimes poverty is indeed a person's own fault; you can't throw money at someone and simply expect them to pull themselves up out of poverty by the bootstraps. I think one aspect of welfare reform that was particularly appealing, even to progressives, was the idea of incorporating more responsibility into the social welfare system; in other words, welfare would be more of a quid pro quo kind of deal.
Theoretically, I don't think that decreased social spending is necessarily bad if the decreases result from increased efficiency in the distribution and usage of funds. That being said, while some of the decreases in social spending were surely due to increased efficiency in allocating funds (getting more chronically welfare-dependent people without children out of the system), I will agree that most of the spending decreases were due to the Republicans' single-minded pursuit of tax cuts and income re-redistribution.
May 31, 2006 7:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
So, to sum up: welfare reform isn't necessarily bad. It's just bad if it reduces spending for people who truly need and deserve the money.
May 31, 2006 7:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
To what extent are we comparing apples to oranges here? Are we counting all the middle class entitlements (universal healthcare, etc.) in Scandinavia as “welfare” while not counting similar programs (Social Security, Medicare etc.) in the US? It’s not apparent what the counts as “welfare” here at all. Of course we all know that the Scandinavians have large social spending budgets and I am not seriously suggesting that US spends anywhere like that amount (adjusted for population), but are these Scandinavian “welfare” programs earmarked specifically for the “poor” or are they across-the-board entitlements? If the latter then that argues for a very different set of programs here in the US if you are looking to help our underclass.
May 31, 2006 7:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
The study about social mobility from which the quote is taken has an obvious trick to it. The study compares fathers (data from before 1975) and sons (data from after 1995). In between there was a massive immigration into the European countries that contrasts with their previous relative homogeneity. Essentially, the European countries imported a new lower class, and that moved everybody else up.
The US has also seen much immigration in those years, but never had the homogeneity and did not experience the "moving up." Why not? that is the real question here.
No study can include every factor. But I am suspicious about this study because it doesn't even mention or discuss the effects of the immigration in the intervening years.
May 31, 2006 8:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
I seem to recall that Scandinavia is home to a relatively high proportion of immigrants. Sweden, e.g. is 12% foreign born, 7% non-European born.
Norway is 8% foreign-born, and Pakistanis are the single largest group.
The corresponding figure for the US is what?
Patria est ubicumque est bene. Their 'homeland' is wherever they can turn a buck. Cicero, Tusculan Disputations
May 31, 2006 9:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Assuming welfare for the poor keeps them poor, and knowing that welfare for the rich, tax cuts etc. keeps them rich, if we eliminate welfare for the poor they'll get richer and if we eliminate welfare for the rich they'll get poorer. And we'll end up with a larger middle class?
May 31, 2006 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
The point about racism is valid. Studies have shown that people are more inclined to provide welfare to people who have a similar racial and cultural background.
The point about immigration is not as valid. If you were to run the social mobility numbers for the US excluding recent immigrants I bet you'd still find low mobility. In fact, recent immigrants are some of the most motivated, and thus socially mobile, people in the country.
http://madskvalsvik.blogspot.com/
May 31, 2006 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
You have a good point, the vast majority of Scandi spending is targetted on people who in the US would be considered middle class.
Of course, you can't really compare spending on the "poor" because there aren't really any poor people in Scandinavia. I lived in Norway until I was 18 so I have some first-hand experience with this. Where I grew up, the sons and daughters of the richest family went to school with and played with the children of the poorest family. I was in my late teens until I realized that there were significant income differences between the families of my friends.
http://madskvalsvik.blogspot.com/
May 31, 2006 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
As a Scandinavian, it is my view that the Nordic approach isn't so much focused on lifting people out of poverty. I don't know that they can cite great examples of having done that.
Rather, what they have is a system of redistribution and social safety nets that prevent the creation of sustained poverty in the first place.
http://madskvalsvik.blogspot.com/
May 31, 2006 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Immigration may actually skew the numbers upward (both here and in Europe) since many immigrants start out with quite literally nothing but the clothes on their back and thus have no where to go but up.
May 31, 2006 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Which may be a valuable lesson for the US too: rather focusing exclusively on the poor, what we need is a solid middle class safety net to prevent people from ending up in poverty in the first place. Plus, those types of programs tend to be politically impervious. ADC was widely disliked and its constituency was small. But look how, despite a vast scare campaign and complete control of the government, the GOP got exactly no where in their attempt to gut Social Security.
May 31, 2006 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
In 2003 it was 11.7% in the US according to this
http://www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/p20-551.pdf
May 31, 2006 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Given the direct relationship between property-tax revolt in the US and education spending in the past few decades, I think that lack of education in the lower socioeconomic strata might have more to do with the persistence of poverty than welfare spending.
May 31, 2006 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think this mini-thread has hit on the key point: Scandanavian countries in particular, and European countries more generally, alleviate poverty indirectly through a whole range of institutions, including national health care, generous public pensions, public schools and free university education, publicly provided child care, family benefits, guaranteed sickness and unemployment insurance, very comprehensive job training and relocation programs, high levels of legal protection for union organizing, and extension of collective bargaining agreements to employers whose workers are not union members (eliminating incentives to bust unions). Its the combination of all of these institutions that promotes social mobility while reducing poverty and inequality. Moreover, by and large each of these insitutions is universal or nearly universal in scope; they are not targeted at poor people specifically, and there is no income threshold you need to be below in order to qualify. The universality of benefits (more characteristic of Scandanavia than the rest of Europe) mitigates the stigma of recieving benefits, thereby both improving the effectiveness of policies and maintaining the political popularity of these forms of public action. I'd also note that the Scandanavian countries are all extremely strong economic peformers, with much better trade performance than the US over the last two and a half decades.
May 31, 2006 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nathan,
Not that I disagree in any way with your argument in this post, but isn't it surprising that poverty hasn't risen a whole lot more over the last decade, or even just since 2000? Certainly, if you had asked me in 1996 what consequences would follow for the US poverty rate from welfare reform, I would have expected poverty to be much more common for any given level of unemployment + minimum wage -- and yet right now we have a labor force participation rate below where it was in 1996 (EPI's underemployment rate for 2004 was 0.1% lower than in 1996), a minimum wage lower in inflation adjusted terms than it was in 1996, and yet poverty appears to be less common: the poverty rate for 2004 (lastest I can find) was 12.7% vs. 13.7% for 1996. EPI reports that in 2003, 24.3% of workers earned poverty level wages, vs. 30.3% in 1996. There are plenty of reasons to move the US toward Scandanavian style social democarcy (greater social mobility, improved political democracy, fairer distrubtion of the burdens of globablization). But its hard to argue that social policy has moved in the wrong direction over the last decade when the incidence of poverty has moved in the right direction (if only a little) even though the logical predictors of poverty (minimum wage and un/underemployment) would lead us to expect an increase in poverty.
May 31, 2006 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd have to see the EPI paper you refer to for a full response, since the Census Bureau numbers show poverty basically the same in 2004 as in the mid-1990s (10.2% of families in poverty in 2004 versus 10.3% in 1997). And there is no reason that poverty should be directly related to social spending-- welfare policies help people have enough money so as to suffer less deprivation not change the macroeconomic conditions. And the overall level of poverty is a separate issue from whether policies help promote social mobility over the long term.
As for some of the macroeconomic policies, it's worth noting that the minimum wage may not have gone up at the federal level, states encompassing more than half the population have significantly raised the minimum wage in recent years.
And overall, EPI has stressed that after a short boost in wages in the late 90s, recent wage growth has been anemic and lagging behind inflation, leading to an erosion of wages for workers.
So I feel quite comfortable saying federal policies have definitely moved in the wrong direction, even if some gains at the state level have mitigated the anti-worker and anti-poor policies embodied at the national level.
May 31, 2006 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Someone recently wrote a book about the idea of eliminating completely welfare and all forms of government social service and instead issuing a check for $10,000 to every U.S. citizen every year(regardless of whether they need it or not) to use for tuition, job training, health care or whatever. I haven't read the book or looked at the issue much beyond the surface, but on its face, it makes sense. I know that in between that dollar in the govt. coffers and the recipient is maze of bureacracy that eats up the majority of that dollar. I also like the idea that people who have been kept out of the potentially profitable free market, would now have the capital to enter into that market which heretofore was reserved for the monied classes.
Thoughts?
Also, in regard to the norther european countries and poverty: Capitalism is a zero sum game, in this country there is no cap as to how rich one can become, consequently, there is no cap as to how far one can fall. Is there some kind of soceital "cap" in Scandanavia? I'm pretty sure that concentration of wealth in the hands of the few is a contributing factor to poverty in the developed world.
“it is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.”
— upton sinclair
May 31, 2006 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
One thing that hasn't been noted is the difference in the level of spending on militarism in the US vs Scandanavia. With 50% of the federal discretionary budget being allocated to this sector there is less available for social programs. Here is a chart showing where the money goes in the US, it would be interesting to see a similar one for various European countires:
Federal Pie Chart
--- Policies not Politics
Daily Landscape
May 31, 2006 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
, in this country there is no cap as to how rich one can become, consequently, there is no cap as to how far one can fall
Why consequently ?
I guess that it's a question as to whether how far is related to the depth of the drop or to the lowest point that could be reached. Mathematically no fall in Norway can be as extended as Ken Lay's . Conversely no one in Norway will ever fall to the depth to which we condemn our homeless but that is not a necessary consequence of our economic system (we are no more capitalistic than the Norweigians) but a political choice: that the poor should.suffer......................................Our cleaning lady in Belgium announced that her daughter was being taken for a month at the sea shore because the the Nurse on her regular visit thought that Beatrice looked a little pale and needed to get sea air. That's another political choice-that children of the poor should be healthy .
May 31, 2006 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm trying to find out if there is a correlation between how many billionaires in a country and how many live in poverty. Here in the states, politicians and pundits, when asked a question, don't actually answer the question but merely use the question as a jumping off point for a statement which may or may not have anything to do w/ the question. Looks like they do the same thing in Belgium.
“it is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.”
— upton sinclair
May 31, 2006 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Several things not considered in this article. Scandanavian populations are generaly demographicaly older populations. With a higher percentage of the populace in the work force it's a considerable amount easier for people to rise above the poverty line. Also the study was focused on males transcending poverty levels. This is rather deceptive as Sweden has the highest percentage of out of wedlock births in the world. This means that so many of those boys born into poverty can arrive at adulthood, father children, yet never be financialy bound to these children. So in theory Sweden could forever have massive populations of men coming out of an impoverished childhood because the whole society is designed to create impoverished children and then free, at least the men, from direct financial ties to the generation they father. Not to mention the ambiguities in social status made possible by the socialist state AND with Norway you have the fact that they can draw on the oil wealth that's given them the title "Kuwait of the North" to continue their socialist state with greater vigour than many other nations could. And there's the fact that the Scandanavian nation's populations are rather sparse in contrast with many other nations in the world. All of which make them rather poor standards to hold the rest of the world to.
May 31, 2006 10:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Re: This is rather deceptive as Sweden has the highest percentage of out of wedlock births in the world.
Those “out of wedlock” births aren’t at all what they appear to be. They are births to cohabiting couples who have never bothered to get married formally since marriage is seen by many in Scandinavia as an outdated religious ritual only. There are relatively few truly single mothers in Scandinavia and few men who father children without any parental responsibility for them.
June 1, 2006 5:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're right. But I was merely pointing out that we take in more immigrants than Nordic countries do, and that might affect the numbers; I didn't say anything about social mobility. However, I think that you are right that immigrants would likely skew the numbers in favor of social mobility.
June 1, 2006 7:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Economists would answer with a firm "yes or no".
Milton Friedman would say that the billionaires are a source for investment which creates jobs and reduces the number living in poverty.
A Keynesian would say that billionaires will keep funds idle that if ,somehow , provided to the poor not only would directly reduce poverty but also would be immediately spent thus further , altho indirectly , reducing poverty.
Before Keynes "classical " economists such as Marshall believed that economies were self correcting so there would never be permanent unemployment. Keynes argued that economies could reach an equilibrium with almost any level of unemployment unless the government takes action to prevent this. That action can be deficit spending .It can also be taxing billionaires and using the funds for government projects or direct aid to the poor.
The important point is that our level of unemployment and hence of poverty is a choice. If unemployment fell for long below the number the Fed considered inflationery it would raise interest rates until more people were out of work. No amountof education or moral exhortation would lower the resulting number .
June 1, 2006 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do you have any means to confirm this beyond mere assertion?
June 1, 2006 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Immediately at hand where I'm at right now? No. However I have read about this repeatedly: true single parenthood (that is, only one adult in the household) is much rarer in these countries than in the US, and few people have children without having the child's other parent residing with them in a cohabitation arrangement.
June 2, 2006 6:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent point, flavius. I've always wondered about that. Expecting people to pull themselves out of poverty on the one hand, while at the same time having an economic policy in which the goal is that 5% of the population (I think that's the number) should be unemployed in order to keep wages contained for the benefit of US employers and prices low for the rest of us, seems to be quite a glaring contradiction in our policies. If our government consciously chooses to sacrifice that 5% of the population for the greater good, then the argument about "accountability" is more or less demolished and we ought to make certain those people are taken care of by welfare.
Politics is the art of preventing people from taking part in affairs which properly concern them. --Paul Valery
June 2, 2006 8:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually the reality in Scandinavia is more complicated than either of these views. Yes there are a lot of single parents (as well as cohabiting couples), and that indeed seems to be because of the decline of the institution of marriage. But no the single parents are not especially poorer than the rest of the population.
In the US single parenthood is part of a certain social pathology. In some European countries single parenthood seems to be part of a new evolving social structure. It is very wrong to generalize from the US experience to Europe.
Here is a nice article as a reference: www.usatoday.com/news/world/2004-12-15-marriage_x.htm
June 2, 2006 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think there’s a problem here with the defining of terms. To social conservatives “single parenthood” means “unwed parenthood” pure and simple. The article you link to reinforces uses that definition too or at least discusses “births to unwed mothers”. Left out of consideration is whether these unwed mothers have been abandoned by their children’s fathers to rear them alone, on public assistance. I think my point still holds, that, No, this is not common in Scandinavia. In fact, as the article, mentions often enough the parents are living together and even marry eventually.
June 2, 2006 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
National statistics is not always compiled in order to answer questions from audiences abroad. One'll have to read quite a lot independently to get the particular answers one looks for.
November 25, 2006 12:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
While this has traditionally been true for the Nordic NATO-countries, the non-NATO-countries Sweden and Finland spent much more during most of the Cold War.
This is relevant since the here discussed poverty-mitigating policies have changed little since the height of the Cold War, and are similar if you compare Sweden now with Finland now, despite Sweden today spending considerably less on defence.
/Tuomas
November 25, 2006 12:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nope. They take in millions of poverty-stricken refugees. /Tuomas
November 25, 2006 12:16 AM | Reply | Permalink