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Tom Friedman has found his bete noire: black gold

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"I call it the "First Law of Petropolitics," and it posits the following: The price of oil and the pace of freedom always move in opposite directions in petro-ist states."

For those who want to read the full version of TF in NYT today: The moneyline is above. The reaction of a good friend of mine was programmatic. First, why don't we rescind the accession of Texas into the Union. It could be the Lone Star Republic, and regarded as an outpost of the petro-ist states, since under TF's first law of Petropolitics, whatever is good for Texas is bad for American democracy. I think this is a little extreme, although the great historian of the Reconstruction, Eric Foner, would note, I imagine, that the victory of the Old South Redeemers was all the more negative for progressivism in the United States because of the growing economic power of Texas.

My friend's second suggestion was that TF should start a third party. Its platform, so far, would consist of starting wars for democracy in countries that have oil WHILE ALSO believing that countries with thriving oil-based economies cannot successfully become democracies. This party also would support high, regressive consumption taxes and low progressive income taxes. My view is that this party's platform isn't all that different from the current ruling party.


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Friedman's First Law is an old law. Any valued resource trumps other considerations of morality and values. Consider either spices or whale oil.
The TF First Law could apply equally to money. The more respect greed gets, the worse the governance in that country.
Maybe there is another corollary: the higher TF's income, the sloppier the thinking.

Since the United States, Canada, and Mexico all have oil it is not Tom Friedman who doing the sloppy thinking. Friedman's point is that countries that are virtually dependent on oil revenues, as opposed to a diverse economy, are prone to authoritarism and the more cash they have to mete out the less restrained they have to be.

Daniel A. Greenbaum

Here's some sloppy thinking for ya right off the top of my head. Instead of rescinding Texas's accession into the Union why not go whole hog and admit Abe Lincoln was wrong and allow the secession of the original confederate states? Give all Northern Repubs and Libertarians the opportunity to emigrate to the new Confederate States of America and we'll give all their blue state property to Southern progressives wishing to get the hell out and live here in the USA. Then they can shrink their government down to a size they can drown in a bathtub, do away with taxes and regulation altogher if they want. Even reinstitute slavery though they'll have to find new slaves, I doubt anyone who might qualify in their eyes is gonna hang around to be shanghaied. Sure there'd be problems to iron out. We'd have to lease NASA facilities from the CSA in FL and TX. Sorting out the resettlement of millions of people would take some time.

But what the heck, the Soviet Union broke up without getting mired down in a shooting war over it, we ought to be able to do the same. I'm sure they'd be willing to return the favor and send experts to walk us through it like those Harvard hotshots who did such a bang up job in helping them democratize in the 1990s, LOL.

Within 10 years I think most of the Georgey Rebs, C*ckSuckers of Amercia or whatever they'd be known as would realize that the government the conservative idealogues are trying to give them looks a lot like other low tax, low regulation banana republics where a tiny minority are filthy rich and the rest of the populace is dirt poor.

Yes, but the point I tried to make is that while that is true it's not very useful and it is incomplete.
The same mechanics were present for other valued resources and the distorting effect applies to the users as well as the providers. Note how our oil needs override morality when it comes to dealing with those oil dictatorships, as well as leading to agressive trade policies (war for trade).
The single-resource trap also affects agriculture, with monocropping leading to various problems. It would help the oil dicatorships if we stopped buying. If that's Friedman's point it's nice to see him noticing the obvious, finally.

Thomas Friedman's an idiot. This thesis has about as much validity as his previous column advocating for a third party. His logic there was apparently that the Republicans have screwed up everything so bad that the only solution is to form a third party.

He never really explains why supporting the Democratic Party is not an option, except for a throwaway line about them being "too liberal." Apparently, he and I have different Democratic Parties in mind. I'm talking about the one that actually has representatives in Congress. The one he is referring to seems only to exist in Tom Friedman's inmagination.

defending Friedman: let us look at the list of states where juvenile offenders can be executed: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Texas. What do they have in common?

I bet that while the human rights situation in Norway looks superficially rosy, we would find a lot after scratching the surface (Norway produces more oil per capita than Iran and Texas.)

I will admit that I find Friedman not only more right than virtually anyone here but I find myself often in agreement with him. What I find really strange is the Fox like mistatement of his views. Friedman about three books ago talked about hte problem of societies that are dependent on oil being both authoritarian and having a very difficult future once the oil runs out.

As for his call for a third party it is not too hard to see why. Everyone of both parties says we are too dependent on foreign sources of oil, fossil fuels cause global warming and pollution. However, how many politicians of either party will look the voter in the face and say higher prices for oil and gas are a good thing? That driving everywhere in huge cars has to stop? That there needs to be governmental money not just for hightway construction? I see no one in either party really ready to upset Baby Boomers, I am one, who do not like politicians who challenge them.

Daniel A. Greenbaum

Friedman lost a lot of credibility to some of us by straining to justify invading Iraq. I tended to agree with him (except Iraq) but there is a certain tone of discovery around his bold ideas, which look very familiar after a close look.
I just don't find much content in his arguments. Lately they have been crashingly obvious.

There is a long history of the not for profit organizations in Africa saying EXACTLY what TF is saying now. For example, the amount of money that was stolen in Angola is approximately equal to total spending on health and education in the country. But no one knows for sure, because oil states typically require that oil companies NOT DISCLOSE the amount of payments to the host country governments on threat of withdrawl of oil rights. The difference between Norway and Angola is transparency and, by derivation, accountability. The Texas crowd running DC are with the Angolans on that issue.

If I find anything odd about his comments it is that he seems to think he is the first one to ever discover the connection. That may be due to the lack of interest in the story in the rest of the media.

I think that it's pretty obvious that if we taxed oil that the producer price would fall.

Now, you can call that a regressive consumption tax, but it could be easily offset with progressive income transfers, not unlike what has been proposed recently.

Now, that wd do a lot to reduce our oil dependency, stave off more oil wars, reduce tyranny in oil-dependent states and help reduce our carbon dioxide emissions...

dlw

A blog-activist dedicated to the reduction of the faith-based political acrimony in the United States of America so as to make our political system more democratic and just and to improve our witness to the rest of the world.

So is Tom going to give up his limo, his frequent flyer miles and his McMansion and come on home to Minnesota to write from a modest condo next to the light rail tracks -- or is this as with all his recent columns merely preaching to the rest of us stupid Americans to do what he himself is not willing to do be it signing his own kids up to fight in Iraq or offshoring his job to an Indian scribe.

The problem with Friedmann's thesis is that the countries that are not "petro-ist" can be every bit as corrupt and non-democratic as "petro-ist". Does Zimbabwe have a more democtatic government than Angola? Is Tunesia more democratic than Libia and Algeria?

Were Saudis on a short trail to democracy when the oil prices were under 20$/bd?

It is not that only oil causes authoritarian dictatorships. However, the wealth lets the oil dictators both a lot more staying power and a lot less reason to reform their nations.

Daniel A. Greenbaum

I think Reed's friend should run in 2008!

Tom Friedman is obsolete. What made him obsolete? Forums like the one you are reading now.

There are posters here, at FDL and KOS who are just as smart, knowledgeable and informed as he is. They make arguments as cogent, or more so, than he does. When the day comes when who cares what TF thinks, or cares no more than what someone here thinks, it will be a better world.

As a commenter on FDL wrote, he will be like a silent movie star after the talkies came. Some survived, many did not. Will Tom?

Zimbabwe and North Korea show that bancrupt dictators have a lot of staying power as well.

What I mean is that this is a real factor, but rather incremental.

There are many reasons to reduce the demand for oil and bring prices lower, but bolstering democracy is the least convincing. Take Central Asia: are petro-ist Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan less democratic than non-petroist Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan?

There are always lots of factors at work.

I think you're points just muddy the waters, but there are lots of other reasons why we need to reduce our oil-dependence via regressive taxes on oil, preferably economically alleviated by progressive transfers.

dlw

A blog-activist dedicated to the reduction of the faith-based political acrimony in the United States of America so as to make our political system more democratic and just and to improve our witness to the rest of the world.

ON THE FIRST BLAHW OF PETROPOLITICS

I normally enjoy reading Thomas L. Friedman’s articles and I envy the quality of his pen but frankly, his recent “The First Law of Petropolitics”, Foreign Policy, May/June 2006 reads like what we in Venezuela refer to as “discovering the tepid water”, discovering common knowledge, although, in fact, if he really feels that he must advice his own government “that the price of crude should now be a daily preoccupation of the U.S. secretary of state, not just the treasury secretary” then I can only conclude that the USA has a much more serious problem than oil. Of course to place huge oil income directly into the pockets of the politicians in countries with weak institutions, will distort their minds and make them act like bullies, what’s new?
Friedman also thinks he makes an important point concluding in reference to consumer countries such as the USA that “we can affect the global price of oil by altering the amounts and types of energy we consume” which is of course also very correct. But, where he goes absolutely wrong, and in his bio we see no reference to studies in economy, is when he says “we cannot affect the supply of oil in any country”. Of course you can! That day consumer countries would be willing to guarantee a decent price for oil over a long period, well that day producers would immediately produce more but, while what the consuming nations really seem to be looking for is oil at the $5 per barrel predicted by the prestigious The Economist as late as in March 1999, then you can obviously only expect to be creating the conditions for oil at over $100. Want to help? Then ask your treasury secretary to offer good long term prices for oil, subject that most of the revenues are distributed directly to the citizens of the producing country.
By the way, and back to the demand, what is currently on the board for fighting USA’s oil addiction seem just like nicotine patches and chewing gums for a non meant new-year promise, and will only serve to guarantee that the modern day successors of Mark Twain will also be able to argue that “it is easy to quit, as they have done it a thousand times”. Instead, $7 per gallon, that should indeed do it!
Levying a new federal consumption tax on gas that would increase its price to about the level at which it has been in Europe, would reduce demand for imported oil, provide the government with about $300 billions in taxes to balance the accounts and benefit the environment. Yes, it would destroy many jobs, but it also would create new ones. Better to bite the bullet now before the current economic imbalances erode confidence in the dollar, and anyhow take the price to $7 but then, with no gain to pay for the pain. That, of course, would require leadership, which is even scarcer than oil.
From www.voiceandnoise.blogspot.com

One of the better ideas I've heard is a floor under the imported price to ensure it stays up, but for now I'm grateful for the reactive market that generates newsworthy price spikes. Every time it makes the front page someone buys a flex-fuel or hybrid car,and someone moves to invest in alternatives.

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