The Numbers Dead
This is one of those postings that is going to seem more negative, or nefarious, than I intend, but I'm actually looking for real answers. Maybe someone in the military can help me. How many soldiers have died in Iraq?
Today's body count puts us at 2403. About 18,000 wounded. Advances in medical care in the active combat zones have clearly minimized the extent that injuries result in deaths. And, the Department of Defense claims that combat related injuries resulting in deaths in hospitals in U.S. or Germany are counted in the 2403.
In light of the recent "correction" by Iraqi Vice President Adel Mahdi that what he meant to say was that 100,000 people, and not 100,000 families, had been displaced by the Iraq war, I've spent a little bit of time trying to figure out what the 2403 number actually means.
If the DoD is willing to admit that, as of a year ago, 15,000 non-combat injuries were NOT considered in the Defense Department's daily tallies, are we to simply assume that all of those 15,000 survived. And if they didn't, are they considered in the 2403.
To me, the combat/non-combat distinction is wholly fictitious, and that the real comparison when judging the war in Iraq ought to be the fatality/injury rate outside of zones of active combat compared to inside. It is a complete disservice to those who are injured or dying to claim because, for example, their car turned over in a sandstorm, to not count them in those we lost or were hurt during the war.
So, is there anything to the notion that the 2403 might undercount those who are injured in non-battle situations and then eventually die. Because, at least looking at the government's materials, they seem to spend a lot of time slicing the categories.
Addendum: A lot of these posts are helpful. I too don't think the numbers would be too high as why would DoD risk being exposed. I guess my question is relatively simple: is there another number (besides 2403, which I think is now 2404) that would reflect casualties from presence in Iraq. Admittedly, we could use a metric to compare it with casualties for serving in the Armed Forces generally, but I just want to know if there is a different number. Let me call it the "widow's test" (or widower test.) If my husband served in the military, and was sent to Iraq, and now he is no longer with me for whatever reason (car accident, misfire, non-combat injury that resulted in death), is that number counted in 2403/4.















To me, the combat/non-combat distinction is wholly fictitious, and that the real comparison when judging the war in Iraq ought to be the fatality/injury rate outside of zones of active combat compared to inside.
This seems like a bad idea to me. Some branches of the service are more dangerous than others; some deployments are more dangerous than others. Naval aviators, unless things have changed radically, have a pretty high rate of fatal accidents. But does it make any sense to compare the rate of combat fatalities in Anbar to the rate of accidental fatalities in the Pacific fleet, and then say, hey, things in Iraq aren't so bad - they're not much worse than the standard rate of accidental death in the Pacific fleet (if the numbers turned out that way)? The number of accidental and other deaths in Iraq would be another useful number to have, esp. if it turns out to be especially high compared to other deployments; but it shouldn't be a substitute for the number of combat deaths.
"When God ariseth, and when he visiteth, what shall we answer!" - Rev. Benjamin Hancock
May 1, 2006 9:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
The issue should be to compare rates of injury and death from non-combat DEPLOYMENT versus combat related deployment. People do receive injuries and die in the military at a given rate regardless of where they are.
Stripping out the injuries and deaths that would normally occur from deployment anywhere, you can then determine what the effects are of the combat related injuries and deaths and compare them across other combat related deployments in US history. This has been done to some degree.
So far, Iraq has been generating injuries and deaths at the rate of approximately 1-3 deaths at most per day on average and the injury rate has been about seven injuries per fatality. This is much lower than previous wars if I remember articles about such statistics I read a couple years ago correctly. I was interested in this issue because of the conspiracy theories I cite below.
The advent of body armor and advances in medical treatment as well as the urban nature of this combat arena has rendered deaths fewer, but serious injuries more likely - because in earlier wars, serious injuries would likely have led to death.
In other words, we're having to treat more serious injuries for longer periods of time rather than just burying the soldier.
I don't think the issue is significant unless you are suspicious that large numbers of US deaths are going unreported. This has been a conspiracy theory for some time, with some people suggesting that up to 7,000 US troops have actually been killed so far in Iraq (and that was early last year I read that figure.)
This is unlikely because then either the injury figure would be incorrect - or we would have had around 50,000 injuries (again, as of early last year), and that could not go unnoticed. That would be nearly one third of the force in Iraq - again, that could not go unnoticed - especially when taking out one tenth of a military force is considered to be "decimation."
Some people have suspected that certain categories of US troops - notably, those immigrants who enlisted under the "Green Card" offer - have been underreported because they might not be considered US citizens or because their bodies would be shipped back to their families outside the US - or in some theories, not shipped back at all but just buried in mass graves in Iraq. I haven't seen any credible evidence for this as yet.
The last time I heard this theory was when a Palestinian reporter in Iraq was killed by US forces. His brother said that his brother had filmed the burial or mass graves of US troops in the desert that were unreported by the military, and that video was why he had been killed. The video has never surfaced, so there is no evidence.
Last year some of the less reputable Net sources (a clown named Walter Storch in particular) were claiming they actually had a death list of 7,000 US soldiers and that they would publish it and cross-reference it with the official US death list.
Never happened. So much for that theory.
May 1, 2006 9:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's an article from last year that reported an 8-1 ratio. But it's not clear whether "Deaths-Other" are included.
May 1, 2006 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is an interesting summary of US wars here which includes an analysis of casualties.
Another article I found cites these statistics:
"As of March 2006, we have over 17,000 wounded military members who earned Purple Hearts in Operation Iraqi Freedom. When you add the number of wounded from Afghanistan the number grows by 685. The total U.S. military dead is 2,304 in Iraq and 282 in Afghanistan. At the current rate we will approach 3,000 war dead by the end of the year and over 21,000 combat wounded.
More American military members are surviving combat. For every American death in Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom, nearly 7 survive with combat wounds. Nearly every one of those wounded will require access to medical care, many for the rest of their lives.
In World War II America had slightly over 292,000 combat deaths with nearly 671,000 wounded -- a ratio of approximately 2.3 wounded for every combat death. Vietnam saw American combat deaths at slightly over 47,000 with 353,000 combat wounded -- a ratio of about 3.2 wounded to every combat death.
Today warfighters have increased chances for survival in combat. For the ground forces, this can be directly linked to body armor. These Kevlar vests are stopping shrapnel and bullets as they protect the torso. These vests are responsible for more wounded returning home from combat injuries in the history of U.S. wars."
Another issue is that according to one report, more than one in four Iraqi vets returning require some sort of physical or mental health medical assistance from the VA.
A Wikipedia article on Iraq casualties indicates the following as well:
"In addition, the study on posttraumatic stress disorder found that the percentage of troops suffering from PTSD increased by between 7-10% after deployment to Iraq, which would represent 25,000 to 35,000 initial periodcases of PTSD among the roughly 350,000 U.S. troops who have served in Iraq."
This article indicates that the British MOD has been concealing injury rates. It was basically discovered when the rates worked out to 1:3 rather than the 1:7 reported for the US forces.
May 1, 2006 11:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I checked the Wikipedia entry at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_and_occupation_of_Iraq_casualties
and that lead me to http://icasualties.org/oif, which reports that of the 1895 of the 2403 U.S. deaths in Iraq as of May, 2006 were from hostile action, while the other 508 were "non-hostile."
Like you, I have seen reports that wounded who are evacuated to the U.S. and Germany and then die are being included in those totals. I haven't found anything that would confirm or deny the particularly fine parsing you are suggesting.
On the one hand, it would seem consistent with the Bush administrations approach to the truth. On the other hand, it seems hard to believe that difference in the casualty figures would be large enough to make it worth risking the public outcry if they were caught making that fine a distinction and denying that particular subset deceased soldiers the official recognition accorded to all the other casualties from the conflict.
May 2, 2006 2:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well as one example in WW1 there were great numbers of deaths from disease. Are we to start not counting those casualties as well? Seems to me like this (combat vs non combat distinction) is an exercise in real-time revisionism for the purpose of undercounting the human cost of this war.
May 2, 2006 6:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, I think more interesting question might be to ask the American people how many deaths a year from combat they would consider excessive.
In a culture that tends to view war as a video game, and with video games so homicidal, I suspect many of our jaded youth think that the real war as a not very gory PG rated version of "Grand Theft Auto: Iraq".
I lived through the Vietnam protests. the real objection to the body count was the chance you could be drafted into becoming one of the statistics. With the advent of an all volunteer force, that is no longer a possibility.
Barring that, I suspect most of the populace views the war through a solipsistic haze of unconcern for the dead.
May 2, 2006 7:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
There's a typo in your citation.
The number of wounded for Vietnam is 153,000, not 353,000.
May 2, 2006 7:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
I suspect many of our jaded youth think that the real war as a not very gory PG rated version of "Grand Theft Auto: Iraq"...
You are so right. This hit home to me because I was a technologically challenged Mom who unknowingly bought my son Grand Theft Auto when he was 11(I thought it was a car racing game what did I know, I lost video games at PacMan). Someone mentioned the violence and so I asked my son to show me the game. I watched as his game character pulled someone from a car, beat them with a baseball bat, then pulled out a gun and shot them up. I mentioned my surprise that it even showed the blood and my son remarked, "Oh I can increase the amount of blood if you want by chosing that option."(what would that be, the "super bloody" option?) Then his character hopped into the car and proceeded to run people down. I aked my son, "Why did you run that girl over?" and he responded, "It's OK, she was just a hooker."
The game came out of the PS 2 and hasn't been used since (My son is now 16).
How many other parents haven't pick up on this and stopped their teens from using these games that desensitize our youth to death and violence?
(When the Columbine shooting occurred, my son's friends all seemed to agree, "Only 16 people shot? That's not so many.")
May 7, 2006 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Regarding non-combat deaths in the current conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, I believe the U.S. Government does not want to provide any statistics on these deaths because it will, in fact, increase the number of deaths that the media will report on. There have been several generals and DOD spokespersons who have stated that the government does not keep those kinds of statistics but those statements, even though they might be correct, are at best deception at the highest levels of government to keep the "numbers" down. I worked in Information Technology in the Air Force and I had the capability to run queries against numerous databases and I could create reports for upper management on just about anything they wanted. The various military personnel centers in DOD have databases that maintain information regarding where and when a military person died and whether it was a combat or a non-combat death. It would be extremely easy to create such a report.
Here is a link to BBC that shows UK's deaths and they are broken down into the two categories. Why is it that UK can provide these statistics and we cannot or will not.
My main objection is that a soldier who died in a non-combat jeep rollover or a sailer who might have taken his own life or an airman who had a heart attack - all in Iraq died because they were in Iraq and each deserves to be counted. They were all there because of the war and they all should be counted because they did not come back to join their loved one's - except to be buried.
Here is the link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/4665020.stm
Note: the breakdown is at the bottom of the article.
May 16, 2006 7:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Another piece of information - this time regarding Vietnam. Obviously someone kept statistics on combat and non-combat deaths for that war.
http://my.eiis.net/cmart/vietwarstats.html
CASUALTIES
* Hostile deaths: 47,359.
* Non-hostile deaths: 10,797.
* Total: 58,202 (includes men formerly classified as MIA and Mayaguez casualties). Men who have subsequently died of wounds account for the changing total.
* 8 nurses died - 1 was KIA.
* Married men killed: 17,539.
* 61% of the men killed were 21 or younger.
* Highest state death rate: West Virginia - 84.1 men per 100,000 males serving in Vietnam (national average 58.9 men for every 100,000 males serving in Vietnam. {Averaged in 1970}).
* Wounded: 303,704 (153,329 hospitalized + 150,375 injured requiring no hospital care).
* Severely disabled: 75,000--23,214 100% disabled; 5,283 lost limbs; 1,081 sustained multiple amputations. Amputation or crippling wounds to the lower extremities were 300% higher than in WWII and 70% higher than in Korea. Multiple amputations occurred at the rate of 18.4% compared to 5.7% in WWII
So if anyone in DOD says that we never tracked those kinds of statistics, maybe they need to be pointed to the link above.
May 16, 2006 7:56 AM | Reply | Permalink