Observations on the U.S.-China Summit, and Beyond
Some observations coming out of the U.S.-China summit, for U.S-China relations and beyond:
The Bush administration still doesn’t get it about the significance of China’s rise. The agenda was strikingly unambitious for a meeting with the leader of a country that has the world’s largest population, astoundingly high economic growth rates, dynamically global diplomacy, and is generally big and prominent enough to have major impact on most of the major issues on our own foreign policy agenda. On the pomp and respect side, how could you just do lunch with the leader of such a country? And the protocol flubs, even if accidental peccadilloes and not intentional jabs, just should not have been allowed to happen.
While not the new ominous threat that some conservative groups think and want it to be, China also is not the system sustainer that many internationalists are trying to coax it to be.
China is mostly interested in pursuing its own national interest – competitively more than confrontationally, yet not very ready to trade off short term self-interest for broader internationalist goals. Iran non-proliferation and Darfur genocide running up against Chinese energy and other economic interests are cases in point on this last point.
In part as fall-out from Bush policies and in part through its own assets and strategy, China is in a very competitive position for enhancing its global influence. While George Bush went mountain biking, Hu Jintao went on to Saudi Arabia --- for a state visit, and one reciprocating for King Abdullah’s trip to Beijing just a few months ago. Chinese-Saudi trade has been growing 41% a year since 1999, and not just on the Chinese oil import side but also including major Chinese investments in the Saudi oil industry. The point is not that the United States is being supplanted, but that we are being competed with. So too in Latin America, where China’s trade with Brazil, Argentina and others has been growing rapidly and its diplomatic presence has become more dynamic, including as a convenient third point on the triangle to play off against Bush policies. Africa, too.
I see two major implications for U.S. policy towards China, and also more broadly. First is we need to worry less about others’ strengths and more about our own. Think of it as the non-Tonya Harding approach to training for the Olympics. Short of breaking the kneecaps of competitors, Olympic athletes have to focus on maximizing their own competitiveness. The other athletes will get stronger and more competitive. I need to, too. Yet Bush policies across the board have been squandering American power. The economic vulnerability opened up by the massive Bush fiscal and trade deficits; the vulnerabilities of our deepening energy dependence; our overstretched and morale crumbling military; our damaged global prestige and reputation; the sense among many countries that close relations with us can hurt more than enhance their security; our human capital problems here at home; our fundamental failures at domestic governance like Katrina that tear our own social fabric as well as undermine the appeal of our model abroad --- in these and other ways the Bush administration has squandered rather than strengthened American power and standing. Conservatives may still want to break China’s knee-caps; better to work on our own competitiveness.
Second is how much we have to gain from reclaiming our position as a major power that is committed not only to its own interests but also to common interests. So much of American power and influence has depended on the belief among other nations and peoples that we use our power and influence in their interest and not just our own. The world that lies ahead can’t be strictly a re-creation of the post-World War II international order; indeed, given globalization in all its aspects it needs to be one with even greater commitment to and effectiveness at global strategies of governance. China is making it clear that it isn’t very inclined, at least not yet, to take on the trade-offs of systemic commitments inconsistent with particular and immediate national interests. Not the only reason, but all the more reason, for the United States to take back and take on a role that can be in our own interests as well as those of the international community.















Your second goal would only be acheivable if we had a government that had the interests of it's citizens, and those of it's friends and allies, as it's motivating force. Unfortunately our government advocates primarily on behalf of the investing class, both domestic and international. At this point there is not much difference between the way the Chinese government and ours do business. Both act in the interest of it's economic elite. China's elite happens to be those with government and party connections, while ours are nominally private citizens. But when our government consists largely of private investors (Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld) or their paid representatives, in practice it's no different than China's. In principle we could elect representatives that would pursue the goals you describe, but until we do, we should expect both countries to pursue their own narrow economic self interest. The tactics each of us use depends on our particular capabilities, but the goals of both governments are the same: To maximize the wealth of the existing elite.
April 25, 2006 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen "JmacSF"
San Francisco. CA
Now there's the rub, the hard part that, unless I've missed something, John Ikenberry and others get hung up on - the bit about US hegemony and the free-rider problem Again, I may have missed a nuance or two but it sounds like a Cold War model, and that part of history is most assuredly over.
The US needs to recognize the reality that we are moving into a multipolar, potentially less stable world order with considerably diminished power.
April 25, 2006 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bruce
This is not directly on point about the summit but how well do you see China walking the various tightropes it must cross. There are vast regions of China that have been left out of the boom. As they are included will the communist party be able to mainain its monopoly of power? China received enormous amounts of capital through Hong Kong and Taiwan. Will that be enough to keep them from using force to extort political changes they want?
Daniel A. Greenbaum
April 25, 2006 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Daniel,
I replied and not sure it got sent, so am replying again --
In many respects we have more to be concerned about from China's weaknesses than its strengths. Even the reported data on violent political protests showed a doubling form 2004 to 2005: environmental issues, inequitable distribution of the benefits of economic growth, other. I also recall being struck when visiting the Natioanl Musuem in Shanghai with the number and range of ethnic groups that China includes....
Bruce
April 25, 2006 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Dubious & Co hadn’t invaded and destroyed a sovereign nation with no evidence of having done anything directly against America, and if America didn’t have a long track record of subverting other nations in our pursuit of global resources and influence, then you point about China pursuing energy security in the Middle East and Africa might be valid.
.
DOR
Register to Vote, who ever you are.
April 25, 2006 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bruce -
What is a system sustainer? I checked and see it has meaning in rockets and hardware/software but don't know what it means in foreign policy and China?
April 26, 2006 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dr. J:
I like your two good points. The first has implications for a Democratic foreign policy. How do we (re) link foreign policy and its domestic bases? Our foreign policy is going to be shaped increasingly by our ability to excel -- or not -- domestically in education and work force training. It will also hinge on getting our children less ignorent about the world in which they live. We are more engaged economically than in the past, and we are arguably more ignorant and perhaps more uncurious than in the past. I just did a response myself on the 'pub dip' posting that makes the point you raise. Long term, declining interest and failing knowledge about the world gives knuckleheads in Washington more leeway to lead and mislead the American people. And it lowers our international competitiveness both political and commercial. Fascinating group called "Business for Diplomatic Action" that is making this point forcefully.
On China, can anyone point to 2 or 3 issues where they have been on-point, and actually contributed to system stablization? Terrorism? Signing the WTO? Is their scorecard mostly negative,
neutral? I suspect mixed according to the issue (i.e. bad on humanitarian intervention...curency overvaluation; better on buying our Treasury bonds)
April 26, 2006 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink