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Nuclear Power

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Like Max Sawicky, I have a kind of fondness for the environmentalist case for nuclear power, but I don't know that much about it. But Patrick Moore, one of the founders of Greenpeace, is on the nuclear bandwagon. Mark Kleiman, too. And see Michael Crowley's two posts on the subject. Basically, nuclear power seems to be the only realistic way to both combat global warming and keep generating lots of electricity.

UPDATE: Man, folks seem mad. And quite possibly I'm wrong about this, you'll note that I don't dedicate tons of time and energy to campaigning for nuclear power. The objection that nuclear is too expensive, however, seems unpersuasive. It's significantly more expensive than coal but the premise here is that we'd be using nuclear as one of several sources of electicity to replace the current reliance on fossile fuels (note that if we move substantially in the direction of electric or hydrogen cars to replace oil we're going to need a lot of additional energy). My understanding is that nuclear isn't more expensive than trying to replace coal entirely with wind and solar power (I think we're all for using more wind and solar power, though; it's a question of how far you can scale this up given that we're not going to cover the entire country with windmills) would be though if people have what they consider decisive rebuttals to this to write or link to I'm happy to read more.

I should say, I suppose, that my uncle, Paul Joskow, was on this nuclear power commission that MIT put together a couple of years ago that came up with some recommendations as to how and make this option safer and more cost-effective and endorsed the use of more nuclear power as one ingredient in a better overall energy policy.


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So we may have to let Islamic states have nuclear power after all? Just to keep the icecaps from melting.

I don't know that much about it...[but that's not going to stop me from drawing a sweeping conclusion]

Helluva a job, Ygleisie!

I don't know that much about it... [but I have to trust someone which is why I will trust a UCLA Law Professor's views]

I don't know that much about it... [before I just jump on the bandwagon, can someone point me to some known experts?]

Sure! Try Hunter and Avory Lovins and the Rocky Mountain Institute. What seems like a bunch of wishful hippy thinking at first will soon turn out to be internationally recognized experts known for their rigorous analysis and used by the US Government itself.

Here is what they currently say about nuclear power: RMI's position on nuclear power is that:

* It's too expensive. Nuclear power has proved much more costly than projected—and more to the point, more costly than most other ways of generating or saving electricity. If utilities and governments are serious about markets, rather than propping up pet technologies at the expense of ratepayers, they should pursue the best buys first.
* Nuclear power plants are not only expensive, they're also financially extremely risky because of their long lead times, cost overruns, and open-ended liabilities.
* Contrary to an argument nuclear apologists have recently taken to making, nuclear power isn't a good way to curb climate change. True, nukes don't produce carbon dioxide—but the power they produce is so expensive that the same money invested in efficiency or even natural-gas-fired power plants would offset much more climate change.
* And of course nuclear power poses significant problems of radioactive waste disposal and the proliferation of potential nuclear weapons material. (However, RMI tends to stress the economic arguments foremost because they carry more weight with decision-makers.)

I don't know that much about it... but it all seems so scary and frightening to me that I think I will throw in with the crowd that brought us The California Energy Scam, Enron, Iraq, Katrina, and Iran. I am so scared, I think I just messed my pants. Please help me Mr. Bush!

The blunt truth is that a lot of the problems with nuclear power that it's opponents cite, are problems they themselves have labored to create. The problems disposing of nuclear waste, for instance, are a result of a conscious strategy of choking the industry in it's own wastes by opposing every conceivable means of disposal, regardless of their merits.

I have to say, if the global warming people were to actually embrace nuclear power as a solution, (But not the only one, of course!) I would have to reassess my perception of them as neo-ludites using global warming as an excuse to attack technological society. Until now, it's been easy to dismiss them as fundamentally unserious, because the the close minded way they approach any solution which has the potential of not starving industrial civilization of energy.

It's kind of a given that we'll have to rely on more than just nuclear, simply because at the rate our energy needs are increasing we'll use up all our uranium before long. But at least while we're still trying to figure out how to milk solar, wind, etc. properly, nuclear has to be in the picture for anyone looking to fight global warming.

"Neo-lud[d]ites using global warming as an excuse to attack technological society"? You are aware that climate change is happening, regardless of whether or not the "global warming people" like nuclear power?

This might be the most pathetic post I've ever read from you, Matt.

After all the discussion that's swirled around this today, you just meekly say "me too"? Why post at all?

Two points:

For the past two decades, Patrick Moore has been a notorious industry shill and environmentalist-basher. Describing him only as a "co-founder of Greenpeace" is grossly deceptive. This point has been made probably FIFTY DIFFERENT PLACES on various blogs today, which you could have discovered with a minimum of reading. Check SourceWatch on Moore.

Nulcear is NOT the only way keep generating electricity. A combination of wind, solar, geothermal, and hydrokinetic power -- combined with increased energy efficiency and improvements in the energy grid -- could do what we need to do.

The nuclear bandwagon is pernicious bullshit passed along by credulous lefties straining to be seen as "reasonable." Sound familiar? Seems like lefties got in trouble with something like that recently.

Matt says:

note that if we move substantially in the direction of electric or hydrogen cars to replace oil we're going to need a lot of additional energy

I think he said "energy" when he meant "electricity." We won't need that much extra energy, I imagine, since we'll be doing the same amount of work. Or is there a more subtle point I'm missing? Will we drive a lot more cars once they're cleaner?

Meanwhile, a few weeks ago there was an article in the WSJ about the extraction of oil from tar sands in Canada. The environmental devastation is incredible - toxic lakes of tailings, huge energy expenditures simply to get the tar to the surface, and the tar itself is high-sulfur. My point is that as the price of energy rises, a lot of bad production methods will become profitable. Nuclear power might seem mild in comparison.

"You are aware that climate change is happening, regardless of whether or not the "global warming people" like nuclear power?"

Sure. This was a reference to the response to global warming you see in many people, who flatly reject any response that doesn't involve hugely scaling back energy usage. Global warming can be real, and still be used by some people as an excuse to demand things they wanted anyway.

"because at the rate our energy needs are increasing we'll use up all our uranium before long."

Preventing fuel reprocessing has been part of that "choke the reactors in their own waste" strategy, and that together with breeders can extend nuclear power out many thousands of years. But it's a given that eventually we have to go to a solar based energy economy. Not, however, Earth based solar, because that's too limited, and has it's own enviromental impact. Space based solar power is what we'll ultimately rely on.

I could be wrong, but I think he was refering to the extra level of energy production and consumption involved in the use of electricity or hydrogen. After all, neither of them exist as resources in nature.* Electricity has to be generated and hydrogen has to be manufactured from fossil fuels or water.

*footnote: Electricity exists in nature in the form of lightning. Maybe we could tap that. Hydrogen exists in nature as well. The nearest elemental hydrogen is on the surface of the sun. The second nearest is in Jupiter.


-- Insane George W. Bush comment #394: See, free nations do not develop weapons of mass destruction.

Dont worry about electrical power. There is a new hydropower based solution that is going to supply all electricity within 10 years, and it doesn't require huge dams. Its very, very green, and there is an unlimited amount of it for all practical purposes. I'll be posting more here about this very, very soon, probably on my blog.

Keep this in mind.

We will need additional energy unless we wind up using fossil fuels to produce our hydrogen and/or electricity for our cars, in which case, what is the point of having them?

 

"You say I'm a dreamer.  We're two of a kind.  Looking for some perfect world that we both know that we'll never find." - Thompson Twins, "Hold Me Now"

The best argument against nuclear power is that uranium, like oil, is too valuable to burn.
The next best argument against it is that it is another centralized, big-money system.
No need to spend much effort against it, I feel, as other systems will show up (and are showing up) and draw attention away. Wind and solar will take up the slack in electric generation and alcohol production will fill needs for transport.

Welcome to the hydropower age.

I can't tell if you're being ironic, since a) we don't burn uranium and b) what else would we use it for?

If you are srious, though, you're wrong.

Alcohol production probably won't fill needs for transport. Most alcohol takes more energy to produce than you get burning it. With sugar you get a ratio of 8 units of output to 1 unit of input, but with corn it's 1.5 to 1.

It's true that we'll need additional energy in the future, in the sense that we aren't going to stop consuming energy tomorrow. This just can't be Matt's point. The transition to electric or hydrogen-powered cars doesn't significantly change the amount of energy we'll use. It simply changes how that energy is produced and distributed.

Electricity produced by nuclear power isn't any different from electricity produced by coal power or gas power or whatever. Electricity is fungible, so it's almost inevitable that we'll use every kind of power generation for our electric or hydrogen-powered cars. Even if we just used oil to generate electricity, and then used electric cars, we could relocate the pollution away from population centers and probably convert oil to energy more efficiently than we do with millions of small gasoline engines.

But all of this is beside the point: Matt's baseline can't be zero energy consumption, or the fact that we need additional energy would be trivially true.

Engineers use the word "burn" colloquially referring to fission. There will, in the future, be important uses for nuclear explosives for engineering in the asteroid belt and for propulsion.
That alcohol is not energy-effective here is due to the distortions caused by the subsidy structure. You're probably aware of Brazil's alcohol production. They have full-flex-fuel cars that run on any mix, and they produce ethanol from sugar cane. Even at 1.5:1 corn is a net positive, and if a farmer is sensible he doesn't burn oil to make ethanol, he burns his own ethanol. The only problem with the low number is the larger acreage needed.
The holy grail of ethanol is cellulose reduction, either through enzyme action or genetically modified yeasts, which latter Shell reportedly has (don't hold your breath for that showing up soon). When this is achieved, all plant trash is fuel, ditto paper trash.
Alternate routes to a shift include replacing coal-fired electricity with sun-derived and making liquid or gaseous fuels from coal. Less efficient than simply burning it, but still an overall reduction in carbon output if sun is making electricity.
The only limit on replacing fossil-fuel electricity is how fast silicon panels and wind turbines can be manufactured. The availability of sun and wind is not a limiting factor. The intermittent nature is not a big issue, either. As the amount of installed intermittent power grows so does the market for storage systems. This market has not been major until now, since there was no need for it, except for compact applications like communications and computing, easily satisfied by batteries, which have obvious drawbacks for large scale installations.
An example of a storage-enhanced renewable system would be to use either sun or wind to make electricity, use most of that to split hydrogen from water, react that with atmospheric carbon (CO2) by the Sabatier process to make methane (natural gas), which is easily packaged. A solar system might be a floating photovoltaic farm on the ocean. A wind system might be installed in an Arctic region with plenty of wind and water.
Right now there is enough private-home roof area to supply all private-home power needs. Someone calculated that even at only 20% efficiency a solar installation of about ten square miles would produce enough electricity to supply the whole country. My favorite statistic is that enough power falls as sunlight on the whole planet that one day's total flux equals one year's worth of power usage at current demand.

The objection that nuclear is too expensive, however, seems unpersuasive. It's significantly more expensive than coal but...

And just imagine how much more expensive nuclear power would be without the Price-Anderson Act, which is basically free insurance for the nuclear industry against accident claims.

Very short-term legislation like this at the industry's birth may have made sense. At this point, however, there's only one reason why it's still around: the industry cannot survive without government welfare. It cannot afford to insure itself, because the consequences of a nuclear accident are so catastrophic.

And that is the problem with nuclear energy.

RogerGathman
Actually, instead of welcoming a white elephant nuclear power plant to a state near you (NIMBY takes on a whole new meaning when you receive the notice in the mail of the proposal to build a nuclear power plant down the block), we should really be worried about the fact that Russia has continued to turn out nuclear power plants with the Chernobyl design, the RBMK-1000. Of the huge and pending threats to the planet's health, that has to be in the top ten.

For those interested in what happens when there is a nuclear power plant accident -- I don't know, it might be a consideration -- I'd urge reading Voices of Chernobyl, by Svetlana Alexievich. Interestingly, as she made the book and came near the affected area, she got sick. And -- an interesting fact for you nuclear power plant fans about Belarus. During the second world war, the Nazis destroyed 619 Belarussian villages, along with their inhabitants. As a result of fallout from Chernobyl, the country lost 485 villages and settlements.

But what the hell, it is just the planet, man. Why not build plants with the potential to make the place unliveable for megamillions of years? And why save things like land, water and air for our descendents, when we need to use it now? Besides, dead planets are sorta cute.

I'd be far more inclined to support nuclear energy if I believed for a moment the new plants would be properly monitored, regulations created due to the concerns of science instead of industry and regulations strictly enforced.

But with this gang of jokers in charge, how likely is that? I haven't seen it yet (unless it involves squeezing money from poor people).

If you want to see the immediate environmental results of our current system of energy production, go to google maps (set on satellite) or google earth, and zoom in on the area around southern West Virginia and eastern Kentucky. Scroll around for a while and you can clearly see the destruction caused by mountaintop removal coal mining. The ecosystems in these areas are obliterated beyond repair (far worse than clearcutting), and the people living in them are at risk of the collapse of slurry impounments that are higher than the Hoover Dam and built over unmapped mineshafts. Not even taking into account the implications on the air and water of mining and burning coal, I'd be inclined to believe there is value to decreasing demand for coal and reducing mining activity by building additional nuclear plants.

38% of my electricity comes from nuclear plants, 60% from coal, and my electric bill is moderate.

Nuclear power is currently about the cheapest in USA. True, this is because the plants are fully amortized. However, it shows that "true" cost should take into account 40+ year lifespan.

Price-Anderson is a "subsidy" that did not use any of the tax-payers money, unlike, say, deposit insurance. I say that it is a better deal than the deposit insurance -- and I am not an opponent of the latter.

The fact is that France is managing its ample nuclear power reliably and inexpensively. Current regulatory and ideological climate in USA would make it impossible, but to me that suggest that we have to change them, not to abandon the idea of nuclear power.

Ideological climate: free market solutions are good, direct state involvement is bad. However, in the case of nuclear power reliability beats many other considerations and the French achieved it by standardizing the design and maintanance.

Regulatory climate: in USA it is hoplessly adversarial; either the industrial hacks are in the ascendance, and regulation is so lax that it is a joke, or the fear-mongers are in the ascendance, and the regulation is so tight or so punitive that it is a joke.

The fact that it is very hard to locate necessary utilities, like garbage damps, how voltage power lines etc., as well as nuclear power stations, should prompt us toward change rather than celebration. Can we see the day when we can rely on impartial expert opinions rather than rabid advocacies from extreme directions?

I say, we cannot have a decent healthcare system (with respect to costs and the rate of malfunctioning) for exactly same reasons. Market warshipping ideology. Regulation is either oblivious to malplractice, or randomly applies huge penalties.

My conclusion is that for the next, say, 10 years, we should concentrate on getting "alternative power sources", but we should also bring the ideological and regulatory climate into the realm of sanity. Eventually, we have to replace and expland our nuclear plants.

Price-Anderson is a "subsidy" that did not use any of the tax-payers money, unlike, say, deposit insurance. I say that it is a better deal than the deposit insurance -- and I am not an opponent of the latter.

Here's the thing: no other energy industry has a Price-Anderson Act, because no other energy industry needs it in order to do business.  The consequences of a nuclear accident are exponentially more disastrous than the consequences of accidents resulting from other kinds of power.  That is one of the hidden costs of nuclear -- and only nuclear -- energy.

But, as you note, the Russians are using an obsolete design that's known to be terribly dangerous. This really has little to do with the issue of nuclear power in civilized countries.

Is that solar farm "about ten square miles" or about ten miles square?

=== The consequences of a nuclear accident are exponentially more disastrous than the consequences of accidents resulting from other kinds of power. ===

Except those large-scale dams, of course, which are all (AFAIK) government-owned. Should a big dam ever fail upstream of any population center the results would be catastrophic (see the small dam accident in Missouri earlier this year).

sPh

Don't hold me to it, but it's a ten-mile square, not ten square miles. In any case, it's a long way from an unreasonably large area.

nascardaughter has a point but I am not opposed to nuclear plants, with a major qualification.
The traditional slow-neutron design is not appropriate. It is the fast reactors, similar to fast breeders, that would be indicated.
As I understand it, these do not produce a large waste stream, and would have to be heavily radiation-shielded, making them automatically very secure from attack.
I still think alternatives will fill the market so fast that nuclear plants would be way behind. There may by un ulterior motive in the current push for nuclear--it distracts from existing alternatives, which threaten centralized, corporate power generation.

Right now there is enough private-home roof area to supply all private-home power needs. Someone calculated that even at only 20% efficiency a solar installation of about ten square miles would produce enough electricity to supply the whole country.

I have long thought that I-5 from Lebec to Red Bluff, and I-10 from Indio to El Paso should be lined with solar panels. That would provide about 3000 linear miles of easy highway access to a solar farm about 20' wide on each side of the freeway.

If I did the calculations correctly, that's a little over 11 square miles of federally owned, (with easy access and easements) solar farm built on environmentally non-sensitive land. Just by using the rural desert parts of two highways.

So if all that is needed is 10 sq miles or even 100 sq miles, land is simply not an issue.

RogerGathman
That reply makes me worry about nuclear power plant supporters. It isn't like a Chernobyl just stays politely within national or local boundaries. In the aftermath of Chernobyl, wind carried radiation in a broad swathe not only across Europe, but into Turkey.

Here's something from the Greenpeace report on the effect of the accident in Turkey:

"Scientific studies proved that Chernobyl cesium isotope levels in water at new Black Sea sediment were about two orders higher than bomb fallout levels. The Black Sea received large amounts of river input, mostly from the Danube and Dnjepr Rivers. Both these rivers drained watersheds heavily impacted by Chernobyl fallout, including freshwater coming directly from the Chernobyl site itself.

Turkish scientist Dr. Yuksel Atakan, who lives in Germany, published in 1990 a study showing that tea from Turkey was heavily contaminated. Results of measurements in Germany of tea bought in Turkey in June 1987 varied from dangerous levels of 6,000 to 30,000 Bq/kg."

The idea that we can build a number of perfect nuclear power plants confronts the problem of the cost of those plants, which nuclear power advocates often counter by saying - there's too much regulation going into the plants. Hmm, which means a lower safety level. Of course, in the era of strict Bush regulation of things like the meat industry and the coal industry, no doubt a Chernobyl is unthinkable in this country -- but what if a less environmentally sensitive president were elected?

so how is it with deposit insurance for customers of banks and saving and loans?

There is a hidden subsidy there which, once upon a time, necessitated expenditures in hundreds of billions of dollars. May I say, it happen during times when a trillion dollars still represented a big chunk of money, e.g. more than the yearly federal budget.

Then there are hidden subsidies in implicit guarantees given to mortgage backed securities.

In the realm of thermal power generation, the scale pays. Big generators are much more efficient, and it is difficult to go around it because of some basic laws of physics.

Alternative sources of energy: solar and wind are promissing, but they are intermitten. Thus either you have to double or triple your investment to provide a sufficient storage capacity, or you embed them in a much larger system. Thus alternatives are natural symbionts of "centralized, corporate power generation", and not a replacement.

The requirement for steady electric current can be decreased two ways: excess on-site generation capacity takes up supply slack, or an on-site storage system holds excess current for use when needed. With enough local generators there is a pool of flexible supply, an electical "wetlands".
When the power is free (only the equipment costs money) the inconvenient intermittent supply will be addressed with storage systems.
Intermittent generation is not a crucial problem. Essentially every natural process is fluctuating and episodic, from food supplies to earned income. Steady electricity is an anomaly.
The thermodynamic efficiencies of a large system are offset by the inefficiency of adjusting output. Since electric use will always involve losses, through the difficulty of matching output to demand (with peak generators) or transmission losses, losses in local generation are not an issue. A wind turbine adjusts output easily, ditto solar, and local generation saves significantly in transmission.
There will be uses for both local and cenntralized npower, just like some people use taxis and some own cars. Likely that power will become like cars, with most people owning their generating capacity. Solar appeals specially because of low (near-zero) maintenance needs.

Steward Brand's new position on nuclear energy is over a year old...this is not a sudden realization and like so much else, the politics and fashion have talked much louder than the science.

My two cents? Nuclear energy could be clean and safe but not in a politcal climate of slack regulation and caving to corporate cries that safety costs cut into profits. We have reached the end of the era when energy supplies only have to be obtained according to the capitalist criteria of profit: future costs that nobody will claim responsibilty for and no imaginable wealth could pay for must be forestalled. Now. The objections about the cost of nuclear vs just burning more of whatever we can most easily find to burn, as you seem to suggest, no longer carry the weight of fully studied position on the matter.

Fantastic comment thread.

But seriously, if every car had a Mr. Fusion, we wouldn't have any of these energy problems.

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