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American Troops and the Shia-Sunni Wars

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Nir Rosen, a fellow at the New America Foundation who is also affiliated with the American Strategy Program which I direct, has just published a Robert Kaplan-esque treatment in the Boston Review of what he sees unfolding in Iraq.

It's a powerfully written passage that opens with a vignette of Americans killing an Iraqi man inside his home, his family outside, perhaps as part of a scheme engineered by a Shia "translator":

The Americans came for Sabah one Friday night in September. His house in Radwaniya, on the western outskirts of Baghdad, stood in a dry, yellow field surrounded by brick walls. Three cars were parked in front the day I came to visit, two weeks after Americans had shot him.

It was the month of Ramadan, and our mouths were as dry as his yard. The resistance was active in Radwaniya, and we drove through fields and dry canals to avoid any checkpoints that might reveal to locals that I was a foreigner. Journalists were targets now too.

The Americans had come maybe 20 times before to search for weapons in the house were Sabah lived with his brothers Walid and Hussein, their wives, and their six children. They knew where to look for the single Kalashnikov rifle the family was permitted to own. They had always been polite. "This day they didn't act normal," Hussein told me. "They were running from all sides of the house. They kicked open the doors. They didn't wait for us."

With Iraqi National Guardsmen standing outside, the Americans hit the brothers with their rifle butts. Five soldiers were on each man. Sabah's nose was broken; Walid lay on the floor with a rifle barrel in his mouth. The Shia translator told them to kill Walid, but they ripped the gun out of his mouth instead, tearing his cheek.

The rest of the family was ordered out. The translator asked the brothers where "the others" were and cursed them, threatening to rape their sisters.

As the terrified family waited outside on the road, they heard three shots and what sounded to them like a scuffle inside. The Iraqi National Guardsmen tried to enter the house, but the translator cursed them, too, and shouted, "Who told you to come in?" Thirty minutes later Walid was dragged into the street. The translator emerged with a picture of Sabah and asked for Sabah's wife.

"Your husband was killed by the Americans, and he deserved to die," he told her. He tore the picture before her face. Several soldiers came out of the house laughing.

Inside, the family found Sabah dead. Blood marked his shirt where three bullets had entered his chest; two came out his back and lodged in the wall behind him. American-made bullet casings were on the floor. The house had been ransacked. Sofas and beds were overturned and torn apart; tables, closets, vases with plastic flowers were broken.

Sabah's pictures had been torn up and his identification card confiscated. Elsewhere in the house one picture remained untouched -- Sabah with his three brothers and their father, smiling in happier times. When Sabah was buried the next day his body was not washed -- martyrs are buried as they died.

Hussein told me that three days before Sabah was killed, an American patrol had stopped in front of Radwaniya's shops and the Shia translator had loudly taunted the locals, cursing and threatening them for being Sunnis. Sectarian tensions between Sunnis and Shia had been escalating throughout the year, and the Americans had done little to diffuse them.

Rosen also elaborates on the potential for a massive regional convulsion between Shia and Sunni Muslims:

In December 2004, Jordan's King Abdallah warned of a "Shia crescent" from Lebanon to Iraq to Iran that would destabilize the entire region. Iraq's Shias had demonstrated against Jordan in the past, condemning the country for its steady trickle of suicide bombers who crossed into Iraq to commit atrocities against Shia civilians.

In September 2005, Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al Faisal warned that a civil war in Iraq would destabilize the entire region and complained that the Americans had handed Iraq over to Iran. In response, Iraqi Interior Minister Bayan Jabr called the Saudi foreign minister a "Bedouin riding a camel" and described Saudi Arabia as a one-family dictatorship.

Jabr, who had commanded the Badr corps, also condemned Saudi human-rights abuses -- particularly the repression of Saudi Arabia's approximately two million Shias -- and he mocked Saudi Arabia's treatment of its women.

In Saudi Arabia, the home of Wahhabi Islam, Shias are known as rafida, which means "rejectionists." A highly pejorative term, it implies that Shias are outside Islam, and to Shias it is the equivalent of being called "nigger." This is the same word Sunni radicals in Iraq and the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab al Zarqawi, use to describe Shias. Saudi Arabia's two million Shias have been persecuted, prevented from celebrating their festivals, and occasionally threatened with extermination.

Saudi Arabia is also the main exporter of foreign fighters to the Iraqi jihad to fight both the Americans and the Shia "rafida" collaborators.

Nir Rosen's treatment of this killing of an Iraqi man inside his house -- where no guns or other terrorist materials seem to have been found -- is the type of reporting that is vital for Americans and others in the world to read. The job Americans are assigned to do in Iraq is nearly impossible to accomplish if they are unable to make sensible life and death decisions without being dependent on the biases of local "fixers" and "translators".

I am highlighting Rosen's report because I've already heard of dozens of cases from U.S. servicemen who had previously served in Iraq that the language and culture gap between American troops and the Iraqis that they are trying to "protect" and "help" forces dependencies on "gatekeepers" -- particularly English-speaking "translators" -- who are very frequently crooks charging exorbitant fees for their services, spies, thugs attached to organized crime rings, extortionists from Iraqis whom they threaten to expose to Americans, or players in the Shia-Sunni conflict who manipulate American troops to perform executions of their enemies.

This situation is terrible. Those who continue to harp on that we "must stay the course" need to think about this. What does "stay the course" mean when many of our troops are not able to conduct themselves independently of thugs who are terrorizing the very people we are trying to help.

I had not read about this case which Nir Rosen exposes, but the American military needs to find a way to investigate this story and prosecute the "translator" and other such thuggish gatekeepers. It then needs to find alternatives in how life and death killing decisions are made when such translators are involved.

I think that Rosen's depiction of the Shia-Sunni tensions that are beginning to boil regionally is accurate, but I want to add two dimensions that are missing from his piece but which are potentially important in balancing this picture.

The first is that as I and others have reported before, Saudi King Abdullah has been sending unambiguous signals that he is trying to reach out to his own domestic Shia population in positive ways -- and as part of this campaign within and beyond Saudi borders invited Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to be his personal guest during the Haj. These symbolic gestures are seen by Sunni and Shia and represent a bit of a counter-force to the negative news we hear.

Secondly, I recently had a conversation about Saudi Arabia's political stability with a senior Saudi Defense Attache based in a foreign government -- and would rather not identify the person. The Saudi General told me that one of his greatest concerns about Saudi Arabia's future was not that the Iraq War or other regional conflicts would boil over, but rather that the conflicts would be quelled, that the problems in Iraq would more or less stabilize and the fire in the heart of the insurgency would diminish.

The General's concern in that scenario is that the many Saudis that have left the country to fight in these "wars" would come home. That, he said, would create serious internal tensions and possibly create instabilities that would be "difficult to control". This was an astonishing admission from a top General but it seemed candid and honest to me.

I asked then whether it was important for Saudi Arabia's stability for it to have the ability to export these young-ish, male jihadists. The General's one word response: "Absolutely."

There are no quick fixes in the Middle East -- and every course of action for America, whether it involves staying or leaving, or engaging in so-called "strategic redeployment" has serious costs attached.

America needs a better strategic plan to address expanding arcs of instability in the world and without a more serious road map, our efforts are thinly reactive, ad hoc, and designed to go nation by nation rather than focus on regional realities -- and this only prescribes ongoing serious failure.

America has to turn this problem of strategic blindness around, and it is something Republican and Democratic partisans should resist treating as election fodder. The Republican leadership has been self-righteous and indulgent in pushing an idiotic notion of infallibility. And Democrats have failed to provide a competing vision of national security priorities and strategy to satisfy a market calling for such a plan -- recent proposals included.

America's mystique is fragile and collapsing and without some better management of American political, economic and military resources, America could, as Zbigniew Brzezinski has said on several occasions, "lose its primacy".

That could have devastating consequences for Americans and the world. That is what this gambit in Iraq may be costing, and we have to wise up to better decisions now.

Steve Clemons is publisher of the popular political blog, The Washington Note, is editor of Bolton Watch, and is Director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation.


57 Comments

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This story is disturbing in more ways than one. If, as I have read, our military are planning more air strikes, and allowing Iraqi military to direct bombing attacks, then the damage will be far more than one man killed.

As far as American "primacy," I think we are far past that point.

And as far as Democratic response, I disagree. The Republican Congress is in power and they are not interested in bipartisanship. I believe Murtha has it right -- withdraw and redeploy. But it is, I think, disingenuous to suggest that somehow the Democrats can come up with any kind of real solution when they are given no real say in the running of our government.

American primacy -- a modern definition:

A unique capacity, exceeding that of any other nation, to screw up on a majestic scale while never missing an opportunity to do so.

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

 

. What does "stay the course" mean when many of our troops are not able to conduct themselves independently of thugs who are terrorizing the very people we are trying to help.

 Indeed. These are the onlyforces that can defeat an insurgency, but is it is clear now what has been happening for some time.  The insurgent civil war against the government has taken on a terrifying third dimension. The only forces that could have defeated the insurgents, a locally based, tribally sanctioned force of Sunni natives, never existed for in fact it was destroyed in the invasion . Big white boys from California and Kansas counter-insurgents???

Now some think we can substitute air power for ground troops and that we might if they counterinsurgency force was really fighting insurgents and no sectarina rivals, a family that owes money, or which slighted your daughter etc.  Score settling with a rifle is on thing. Settling scores with a Blackhawk gunship is something else.

 The Russians came to the same point in Afghanistan. When they realized that their ground presence was counterproductive, they to the air and wantonly destroyed villages.  Though I've no doubt that our air units are decidedly more profressional, the result will be the same for who do you think will call down airstrikes?

Welcome to hell the Arab League president warned.  Many warned but that was then, and this is now.

 A bad plan was executed and we should have gotten the hell out once it became apparent that our leaders had lied us into war.  The longer we refuse to acknowledge the lie, the longer we live with ever more wretched consequences.

 As for Nir Rosen, that would be the one who Juan Cole calls "brave" today, usuually "intrepid"

Either way, Juan is understatiung.

Steve

How "inevitable" was this showdown between the Sunnis and the Shia since the rise of Khommenism in Iran and Al Qaeda? The United States arrival in Iraq and the removal of Saddem may have exacerbated the problem but did it cause it? Iraq under Saddem was both able to suppress its own Shiites and provide a buffer for much of the Arab Sunni Muslim world from the Persian Shia world.

It would seem obvious that the United States should not allow itself to be a partisan in this sectarian war becuase it doesn't have enough Arabic translators. If the United States leaves Iraq and the Iranians, Saudis and Turks start picking sides within Iraq what then?

Daniel A. Greenbaum

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

Last night on NewsHour, a chilling report from Baghdad, in which the Los Angeles Times reporter tells Jim Lehrer that the country is in the grip of rising anger and fear in which families are stockpiling arms and ammunition for what he sees a dubious claim of "self-defense" ie "I am going to kill that (fill in the blank) before they kill my family"

RealAudio: Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times reports from Baghdad.

 We cannot stay in Iraq. That has been clear for a least 2 1/2 years. Also clear, the longer we have stayed the worse it has and will become if we stay any longer. Yes, there maybe ameliorating steps we can take, and I have suggested several:

1. Total US withdrawal

2. US repartations package

3. US funding of an international force (arab league? India? ) under UN command

4. Possible supplement of US airpower directed by that force.

5. Detente with Iran

6. Decisive pressure on Israel for complete withdrawal from West Bank and east Jerusalem

 But you tell me if that's ever going to happen with this regime or even with another.

 That's what it is going to take - We need to set a new course on an entirely diffferent roadmap.  It is too late and getting lateer by the hour.

 I'd put Nir and Anatol Lieven to work Steve.

 

The Americans seem to have gotten them­selves into an intractable mess in Iraq. They must now choose between a historical debacle if they hang on and a temporary setback if they let go.

"We cannot leave Iraq before it is stabilized," declared a former CIA officer. But to maintain a prolonged foreign occupation of Iraq is to destabilize it only further. Once the invader departs, there will no doubt be a civil war, which will accelerate the dismemberment of the nation, giving rise to a fundamentalist regime, which will make at least some people miss the era of Saddam.

On the other hand, if the occupation persists, one can foresee a multifaceted terrorist es­calation eating away at U.S. forces and aggravating ethnic and religious divisions. The Americans will bring in reinforcements, including Fijians and Norwegians. They'll talk of the final fifteen minutes and of last gasps. A coup d'etat or uprising will be inspired in Teheran (terrain more favorable to the West than Iraq is) but with irritating repercussions in Najaf, which will be transformed into a base of retreat for vengeful ayatollahs. The Americans will cling to Iraq as "useful" and ensconce themselves inside supposedly unbreachable bastions. Then, as the death toll mounts by the hundreds, the "bring the boys home" movement will spread like an oil slick across the United States, and a new, Democratic administration will make the prudent decision to stop the hemorrhaging when the vital interests of the United States are not at stake. But how many lives will be ruined in the meantime?

Regis Debray, Le Figaro, September 2003 a Long Time Ago

 

 

 

We inevitably will leave Iraq at some time.  If we stay much longer we are obviously there to maintain Iraq as a military base for the Middle East, probably to "protect" Israel.  That will make things far worse than they are now.  If we don't stay to maintain Iraq as a military base, we have no business there at all.  It is increasingly obvious that we are filling the same role there that occupying troops always fill - that is to terrorize the populace.  We are the terrorists in Iraq today.  Any international war on terrorism has to take that fact into consideration.

 

Hoppy in Sacramento

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

 

I have never been to Iraq Daniel, but Juan Cole knows a thing or two. The answer to your question is "post hoc ergo propter hoc". The answer is Paul Wolfowitz and his Lobby boys had a plan premised on the fact that Iraq was a secular state. Wolfowitz even told Congress that it would be for us to be in Iraq instead of Saudi Arabia because Iraq didn't have holy sites or fundamentalists.

 

Get my point now? That was the point of an excellent lecture and killer powerpoint from Juan Cole (bete noir of the Lobby) that I was privileged to attend last August Oh by the way, the answer to question.

I almost forgot. Sunni-Shia violenc, practically unknown until we arrived. The title of Cole's presentation - The Rise of Shiite Crescent in the Oil Gulf. Saudi Arabia is smart to move now to embrace Sadr. Iran is the new Gulf power and the oil producing region of the kingdom - long oppressed Shia.

 

 For more information, you should read the transcript IRAQ and IRAN Symposium: A Shia Crescent: What Fallout for the United States Juan Cole/ Kenneth Katzman/ Karim Sadjadpour/ Ray Takeyh Iranian Foreign Policy Towards Occupied Iraq, 2003-05 Kamram Taremi

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

 

Those who danced the tune Dan, have a large account with the Piper - long past due.

Juan Cole says the American military should immediately stop search-and-destroy missions because they inflame Iraqis and intensify the insurgency. Air-strikes have the same result. No matter that we can do "precision bombing", for our intelligence is so often bad or wrong about who the enemy is. Moreover, the missiles are just not as precise as we claim. We end up killing and wounding innocents and creating more hostility among the Iraqis.

"Staying the course" in Iraq is absolutely not an option.

I guess I'm not alone in extreme fatigue with the "they are" or "he was" worse than we are and therefore we're not all that bad...  I don't care what Saddam might or might not have done under the circumstances.  What we did is something we can do something about.

If this is the way American troops are behaving, then obviously we either have to pull them out altogether (not necessarily a good choice) or leave the best there and put them under international command as to act as real security forces and to rebuild what they've broken. For sure individual soldiers are capable of doing horrible things on their own, but the pattern of abuse in Iraq can only come from mid and high level command.  It's that command which we need to delete, whether military or civilian.

We have a culture in this country which respects the military a great deal more than it always deserves.  Facing reality may not be pleasant, but it's more apt to keep us out of trouble in the future. 

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

 

Have cross pollinated to Informed Comment's post on the Rosen article.


Will be up once Cole approves content.

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

 

Specifically (and Cole is a Lobby certified "anti-Semite" - fair warning Dan)

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

 

Exit Plans

Senator John Kerry argues that the United States should set a May 15 deadline for the formation of a national unity government in Iraq, and then set a December 31, 2006 deadline for US withdrawal. Kerry seems to be under the impression that the US is fighting "al-Qaeda" in Iraq, which is generally not true. It is fighting Sunni Arab Iraqis, whether nationalists or religious Salafi revivalists or tribesmen or good old boys. But he is right that the US military should stop doing search and destroy missions and withdraw to garrisons, and then ultimately leave. The search and destroy missions have only spread around support for the insurgency.
As for the notion of two deadlines, the first is really unnecessary. The Iraqi constitution sets deadlines, which the Iraqi politicians have more or less announced that they will ignore. All the US has to do is demand that they meet their own deadlines or else we're taking down the concrete barriers around the Green Zone and going home.
Arthur Greif suggests we just have a California-style referendum in Iraq and ask the Iraqis if they want the US troops to leave within 6 months. He knows that the likely answer is "yes," and suggests that it would give us an honorable way out. The problem is that the Cheney administration does not want an honorable way out, they want petroleum contracts for their Houston cronies. The problem with Kerry's and Greif's exit plans is that they are only that-- exit plans. It isn't hard to get a US exit. We just pull up stakes and go home. What is hard is not to leave chaos behind us, of a sort that will throw the whole Oil Gulf region into war.

A practical exit strategy has to stipulate what comes next.
As regular readers know, I think where we start is by splitting the military command in Iraq, as we did in Afghanistan (there we have NATO ISAF and the US). We need a UN command in Iraq, and need a multinational force (probably in the main Arab League) that can go on helping the Iraqis maintain a minimum of social peace after the US is out.

The US needs to get out. Its troops are a constant provocation of the local population, stirring insurgency rather than quieting it. They have never developed the kind of local intelligence or even language skills that would allow them to do real counter-insurgency. When hot civil war nearly erupted in February, US troops could not intervene between Sunnis and Shiites anyway, without becoming a party to it. So what good are they in such a crisis? Better to get them out of harm's way. Moreover, the Bush administration is both incompetent and corrupt, and therefore cannot hope actually to accomplish anything good in Iraq. The longer the US is there virtually unilaterally, the worse the final crash and burn is going to be. But the US has a responsibility, having thrown Iraq into civil war, to make the best arrangements it can for the aftermath.

The six neighbors have the highest stakes in Iraq-- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, Syria, Turkey and Iran. They should immediately be called to a 6 + 3 meeting with the United States, Britain and the Arab League to begin the work of constituting a post-US multinational force that might hope to keep ethnic and religious militias from marching against one another in the thousands and killing milions.

Exit is easy. Exit with honor will be the hardest thing the United States of America has ever done in its over two centuries of history. Exit without honor will endanger the security of the United States for decades.

 

posted by Juan @ 4/05/2006 11:43:00 AM 31 comments   

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

If you are wondering why Israel is passing bricks over Iran, don't. It has nothing whatsoever to do with the Iranian nuclear threat and everything to do with the fact that for the US to extricate itself from the Disaster, we're going to have to cut a deal with Iran and the longer we wait, the higher the price

Aahh the Lobby sowed the wind, and Israel will reap the whirlwind. They'll have company

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

 

Cole also notes on the question of withdrawal/air support and the problem of spotters, that US air power should be held in reserve to attack large formations one side or the other assembling for attack and NOT for a continuation of "surgical" strikes on a day to day basis.

I think it was in March that he most recently disussed this.

It pays to read Informed Comment regularly and I've done so religiously without fail, at first log on, every day now for three years

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

We were having coffee together just before his lecture last fall. Cole expounded at length about why the Saudis and Jordanians "are passing bricks" over this lie-begotten mess.

Shiites in Arab world loyal to Iran first: Mubarak (AFP)  - 2 hours ago

Get the picture?

Ain't purty is it and it is getting uglier by the day.

Juan Cole may or many not know about Iraq but I do not believe he has ever been there. He is also not saying anything all that magical.

Your comment about Sunni-Shia violence is patently untrue. There was the Iraqi-Iranian war, 1 million dead. Saddem's suppression of the Shia. Al Qaeda's killing of Shia. Do you know anything of the history of the Sunnis and the Shiites? There was also the killings in Mecca by Shiia.

Saddem's regime was secular, his Ba'ath Party was modelled on the Nazi Party. However, his country is split between Shia, Sunni and the Kurds. As I have writen before William Kristol's dismissal of the potential problem between Sunnis and Shia in Iraq after Saddem was eliminated may be the single most ridiculous thing said in the run up to the war. Removing Saddem's brutalization of the Shiite's was likely to have consequences.

I gather you believe the Arabs are pretty much incapable of acting rationally on their own behalf. Is your solution to the Middle East that what the Arabs need are monstrous dictators?

Daniel A. Greenbaum

Solution-from those who brought you The Bloody Iraq Fiasco:

Nuke Iran- people rise up, throw out their mullahs, regime change, US hegemony, democracy and peace. World thanks George W. Bush for saving civilization.

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

 


And you'd be wrong again, but what gets me is that you fell for the bait.

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

 


And you'd be wrong again, but what gets me is that you fell for the bait.

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

 

Truly sad and desperate days for the Lobbyists as I am pleased to demonstrate daily.

Thank you Daniel Greenbaum = proof of so many points

Any peaceful settlement of the Iraq question would also require tacit acceptability to Turkey and Iran at a minimum. The Kurd question alone would have been tough. This is one mess that isn't going away anytime soon regardless of mea culpas, indignation or anything except serious arbitration : not military enforcement.
The U.S. is known to be capable of being a serious pain in the ass. That reputation can be an advantage. A neutral trusted by the principals is a prerequisite to any dickering ( at least that's locally acceptable ). Next is the hard part. Who would trust the U.S. enough to go there ?
I'll guarantee you the only practical solutions to this mess will depend on people closer to the problem but not actually caught up in it.
One last point. Bush/Cheney deliberately caused this problem. No solution is possible with them in charge. Housecleaning ( spring cleaning ? ) or an expired term are preconditions for any possible success.

There's going to be blowback because of Bush's moronic war no matter what. So we need to follow Murtha's strategic redployment plan immediately.

Tom

I read the link you supplied. It has nothing to do with Israel. It has very little to do with the United States.

It clearly acknowledges that in Iraq the Sunnis are the primary problem but that in the Middle East as a whole given the regime in Iran the Shiites present a longer term problem.

The bait? That you are to be taken seriously and are not just a juevenile anti-Semite?

Daniel A. Greenbaum

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

 

Not to belabor the point (like hell!) but I do so hate to hoist another on his own petard without him even knowing he's been hoisted so

George Bush's been to Iraq
Tommy Franks, Paul Wolfowitz, Dick Cheney...

I've never been Dan.

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

 

What's the use of beating a horse unless it's dead eh Daniel?

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

 

The house is full of more trash than the Regime. The WarParty's tentacles run as deep as they sweep wide

Do you have some actual point?

By the way. While Iran is certainly a regional power in the Middle East a bit of realism. According to Wikipedia 85% of the world's Muslims are Sunnia and less than 15% are Shiia.

I am not at all sure what your ravings are meant to prove but you seem to like brutal dictators i in the Arab world. Do you believe they are necessary for the Arabs?

Daniel A. Greenbaum

"No matter that we can do "precision bombing", for our intelligence is so often bad or wrong about who the enemy is."

 "Precision bombing" is a phrase applicable to highway bridges, power stations, factories, etc., but not at all to houses, automobiles, etc.  Five hundred pounds of high explosives cannot possibly be a precision weapon on a scale we are attempting in Iraq.  In fact, a more accurate phrase would be "more  precise bombing".  Recall that gravity bombs, unguided, have to be dropped by the dozens to have any chance of hitting even a bridge - more precise bombing, using laser guidance, reduces that number considerably.

A good principle to remember is:  news handed out by the military is propaganda.  When the military states that they have done something, it is only slightly probable that they have actually done so. 

 

Hoppy in Sacramento

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

 

I could swear that when I first linked to Rosen's article this morning via Informed Comment, that I had read it a week ago somewhere. Can't recall where. Information overload or advancing years..no matter

I did read it some days ago

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

 

"Precision bombing" along with its cousin "collateral" damage are just so much salve for the conscience of the masses.

After all, we're on a noble mission for freedom now aren't we?

Can't have too much self-flagellation or truth.

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

 

"Precision bombing" along with its cousin "collateral" damage are just so much salve for the conscience of the masses.

After all, we're on a noble mission for freedom now aren't we?

Can't have too much self-flagellation or truth.

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

 

You think things are screwed up today.

Check back in a month or two. That's what happens when pack of lies is "executed" according to plan. Not a matter of incompetence in execution but deceit and delusion from the very start.

Enough rationalizations of failure. Time to take the bull by the tail and look the problem in the face - better had we done so three-four years ago, better 3-4 days ago too.

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

 

Operation Rolling BS: a Look at What's Behind the Tail

A somber U.S. report of Iraqi discord...(NYTimes)

WASHINGTON, April 8 — An internal staff report by the United States Embassy and the military command in Baghdad provides a sobering province-by-province snapshot of Iraq's political, economic and security situation, rating the overall stability of 6 of the 18 provinces "serious" and one "critical." The report is a counterpoint to some recent upbeat public statements by top American politicians and military officials.

 

America has to turn this problem of strategic blindness around, and it is something Republican and Democratic partisans should resist treating as election fodder.

With all due respect, and maybe I misunderstood, but -- why the hell not?

What's the alternative?

If Republicans can make 3000 dead Americans fodder, if they can smear U.S. decorated vets as fodder, if they can use terror warnings as fodder, if they can say if you vote Democratic, we're "likely" to get hit by bin Laden -- they can do all that, but we cannot use their stunning incompetence as fodder???

This "problem of strategic blindness" is a Republican creation. Delusions of flowers and chocolates. Josh Rushing was appointed Defense spokesperson not because he was an expert in the Middle East, but because HE READ IRAQ FOR DUMMIES ON THE PLANE RIDE OVER.

Rumsfeld denied troops. Gonzales signed a torture memo. Cheney fixed facts around the policy. Bush lied about it.

That's fodder. (And sorry for the shouting.)

 

Dissent Protects Democracy

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

And while we're dicussing how to salvage this disaster and save the nation from catastrophe, a difficult if not impossible task already, the Lobby is out to make hay while their setting sun still shines

Hersh on possible US nuclear attack on Iran

 

Why do you think that the Israeli's have threatened on at least a half-dozen occasions over the past few months to strike if the US didn't (including 3 high profile official visits to Washington and to Lobby meetings)?

 Put another way, does it strike you has odd that these masters of surprise pre-emptive attack would violate Rule #1 - surprise?

 Isn't the answer obvious? They want us to do their dirty work because they are scared witless that we will do what we must to get out of Iraq - deal with Iran

bluebell

Then they can kill each other till they're sick of it but they won't be killing Americans and we won't be killing innocent people who get in the way.

bluebell

Keep shouting. The national party hasn't heard us yet.

Get in the way?

What amuses me about this article is that US troops have been doing this sort of thing for the last three years in Irag and now we have this guy claiming it's all because of "thugs" who don't translate things right.

Uh, no, actually. It's because US troops don't give a rat's ass about "hajis" (if I'm spelling that right). It's because the US military is composed of ghetto blacks, ghetto Hispanics, green-card Hispanics, and rural rednecks (as well as a bunch of Army Reserve guys who hopefully spread the racism out somewhat).

It's that simple.

Couple this with a bunch of incompetents whose only interest is in brown-nosing their way up the chain of command and throwing their authority around, and you have a recipe for war crimes on a massive scale.

The left press and the Arab press have been reporting this sort of thing DAILY for the last three years. It started before the invasion was even over in April 2003. Where was the US mainstream press?

I'll tell you where. Because it's "unpatriotic" to question the caliber of US soldiers, that's why.

Never mind that US troops have conducted atrocities and war crimes in every single conflict they've ever been involved in. In many cases, those crimes were the acts of rogue elements. But in many cases, those crimes were on orders and were covered up by higher ups right up to General Colin Powell.

I was IN the US Army for three years with a tour of duty in Vietnam from 1967 to 1968. While I did not see any war crimes in my area of operations, I DID see the attitude and behavior of US troops to Vietnamese nationals. Racism can't begin to describe it.

Until the American people wake up and recognize that their vaunted "boys over there" are the same assholes they were when they were here, the US will continue to get a reputation for being a brutal war criminal.

Richard Steven Hack

www.computerproblemssolvedcheap.com 

The only problem with "surprise" in this instance is that it went out the window years ago.

The Iranians have known since Osirak that the Israelis would attack them if they ever had a serious nuclear program. That's why they put everything underground.

Israel gave away surprise at Osirak. They know it. The Iranians know it. The US knows it.

Surprise is not an issue here. What is at issue is how easily Bush has run the Iran war up the flagpole even after Iraq proved to be such a disaster.

And now if Hersh is correct - and he isn't always but he is always on track - Bush intends to start a NUCLEAR WAR in the Middle East this year.

I'm still wondering what Josh and the "progressives" think they can do about it - or if they even care.

I also don't think the Israelis think we will deal with Iran. As long as the Lobby and the neocons still have offices in the Bush Administration, that simply isn't going to happen. How the hell can Bush deal with Iran about Iraq and simultaneously threaten them with nukes? Is this just the way Bush thinks about "diplomacy"? I don't think so. Sure, it seemed that way with North Korea - but again, North Korea actually HAS nukes and a military that CAN kick our ass - and no oil. Iran has none of that - that makes Iran an "easy" target for the neocons.

Bush is looking for a cheap "War President" bounce and the neocons are looking to expand the chaos in the ME. It's that simple.

The Iran war is ON. As long as people keep arguing over whether it IS on, it will STAY on. Only when progressives order the Congress to EXPLICITLY PREVENT Bush from launching ANY military action on Iran without an express Declaration of War by Congress in response to an imminent and direct threat to the US by Iran, and explicitly prevent Bush from using ANY nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear nation will the discussion be able to move on.

Until then, Bush will just keep on moving on and the rest of you will just keep reacting to events when they're too late to fix.


Richard Steven Hack

www.computerproblemssolvedcheap.com 

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

Mubarrak: Civil War in Iraq

What Oh What is a WarLord to do?  Oh I know. Just what the Israelis would do if cornered, kill people

    A government consultant with close ties to the civilian leadership in the Pentagon said that Bush was “absolutely convinced that Iran is going to get the bomb” if it is not stopped. He said that the President believes that he must do “what no Democrat or Republican, if elected in the future, would have the courage to do,” and “that saving Iran is going to be his legacy.”



    THE IRAN PLANS
    by SEYMOUR M. HERSH

 

After all who in the world other than plucky little Israel would have the balls to do such a thing.

New war crimes, same war criminals.

 

 

I'll tell you what frightened me about Sy Hersh's latest, CSCS. This graf:

One former defense official, who still deals with sensitive issues for the Bush Administration, told me that the military planning was premised on a belief that “a sustained bombing campaign in Iran will humiliate the religious leadership and lead the public to rise up and overthrow the government.” He added, “I was shocked when I heard it, and asked myself, ‘What are they smoking?’ ”

One would think that the exposé of the "garlands of flowers" fantasy in Iraq would have taught these folks something. What scares me is that Bush and his cabal likely believe what is written above (as opposed to merely authoring dishonest propaganda.) I think we need to look at the many studies of cult structure to see our way through this imbecility.

Therefore.... With all due respect, and maybe I misunderstood, but -- why the hell not?...I'm with you 100% Leave no stone unturned - we need to throw out everthing we can to put these morons on a leash, or at least keep them off-balance.

Neoboho

Every body (and I mean everybody - even the moribund Democratic leadership) better get off their butts right now and start screaming and shouting to stop this. Otherwise this looney may unleash a nuclear holocaust.

Tom

Inside, the family found Sabah dead. Blood marked his shirt where three bullets had entered his chest; two came out his back and lodged in the wall behind him. American-made bullet casings were on the floor.

Is it of no importance that this man seems to have been murdered by U.S. soldiers? Is cold-blooded assassination so common that a report of it goes unremarked? I’ve always thought that soldiers were charged with engaging enemy fighters or defending themselves from direct attack, not with being judges and executioners in civilian homes.

Of course the pointless killing of a civilian Iraqi is of great importance, just as an equally pointless killing of an American soldier is of great importance.  The significant difference is that American soldiers are there to subdue the populace, and when the populace resists by killing an American soldier, that is an act of guerrilla warfare.  What strikes me about the story is that we are supposed to be fighting the terrorists in Iraq, but have obviously become the terrorists in Iraq.  That isn't something to be proud of.

 

Hoppy in Sacramento

Thanks for that, jexter. I think Juan Cole may have misread what Kerry was saying about al Qaida in Iraq being a major concern - it appears Kerry was really saying that our occupation of Iraq constitutes a recruitment tool generally for al Qaida. But that's a minor thing - Cole's plan seems the most sensible I've seen so far. Whether it would work may be another thing, but all of the countries he suggested as being part of a multinational force certainly do have a stake in a civil war in Iraq not becoming the spark that inflames the entire Middle East.

The likelihood that Bush and his team would ever embrace such a sensible plan is fairly remote, though. These are true believers, unencumbered by pesky little things like reality. 

For an insider's view of what the current situation in Iraq really is like, another good source is the anonymous Iraqi blogger, riverbend, whose blog is Baghdad Burning. She was recently awarded a Bloggie for the Best African or Middle Eastern Weblog by the sixth annual Weblog Awards, and a book based on the writings in her blog, has just made the short list for a prestigious British award for non-fiction writing, the Samuel Johnson Prize.

A taste:

It has been three years since the beginning of the war that marked the end of Iraq’s independence. Three years of occupation and bloodshed.

Spring should be about renewal and rebirth. For Iraqis, spring has been about reliving painful memories and preparing for future disasters. In many ways, this year is like 2003 prior to the war when we were stocking up on fuel, water, food and first aid supplies and medications. We're doing it again this year but now we don't discuss what we're stocking up for. Bombs and B-52's are so much easier to face than other possibilities.

I don’t think anyone imagined three years ago that things could be quite this bad today. The last few weeks have been ridden with tension. I’m so tired of it all- we’re all tired.

Three years and the electricity is worse than ever. The security situation has gone from bad to worse. The country feels like it’s on the brink of chaos once more- but a pre-planned, pre-fabricated chaos being led by religious militias and zealots.

 

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt said on Saturday that Iraq is already in an ethnic civil war; that the problem with the country is that it is too diverse ethnically; that the current crisis was caused by Saddam not having ruled more justly; that the United States must not leave, or all hell will break loose; and that Arab Shiites a secretly more loyal to Iran than to their own countries. The degree of ignorance and prejudice revealed by the last phrase is mind boggling, but it is a very common sentiment in the Sunni Arab world. Nor is it a good sign, since the Shiites are becoming empowered in the eastern Arab world, and the Sunnis are going to have to get used to it.

As for Mubarak's caution against a US withdrawal, it strikes me as self-serving. If the US withdraws, regional leaders may have to step up.

 

posted by Juan @ 4/09/2006 06:30:00 AM 0 comments

And Cole has something to say on another topic of discussion here - Good plan gone bad or just a bad plan to begin with?

The only reason it is even controversial that Iraq is in civil war is because the Bush administration spinmeisters are resisting the term, for PR purposes. Why doesn't the US press just ignore them when they start saying ridiculous things like that?

And now you have this big food fight between Donald Rumsfeld and Condoleeza Rice over her admission that the US has made a thousand tactical errors in Iraq. The US has made tens of thousands of tactical errors in Iraq. Rice was underestimating the problem. And, the US has made large numbers of strategic ones, too. Both Rice and Rumsfeld are responsible for the strategic ones. In a system with any accountability, their government would lose a vote of no confidence at this point and they would be history. Rice's attempt to maintain that there were lots of little errors (Rumsfeld's and the troops) but that the over-all strategy was sound (i.e. her's and Bush's) is absurd. A sound strategy will usually survive some tactical errors. A bad strategy is doomed even if the tactics are gotten right.

The leaking of an internal, realistic assessment of how bad things are in Iraq, generated by the US government, has sent Bush administration officials scurrying to put the best face on it. As I have pointed out several times, the problems are not in three provinces, they are in seven. And, they are among the more populous provinces in the country, including Baghdad, which has 6 million or almost a fourth of the country. And they are very serious problems and getting worse

This was a reckless strategy from the very beginning. The French didn't play games. The Russians didn't play games.  Bush played games with the world. Bush lied and hundreds of thousands died.

Those who supporte the war should take responsibility for the consequences of their actions.

 

The Administration has made a series of outrageous statements like the "garlands of flowers" statement over the years. Count 'em. Let's look at these statements not as indications of what the Admin believes but as a throwaway explanation which will be accepted by its supporters as code for "we don't really give a f**k what happens to civilians; we have other, more pressing agendas."

I figure: always look at probable outcomes and start with the assumption that the outcome -- however outrageous it looks to you and me -- is desired. Then ask: what purpose does chaos serve?

There's a long history -- goes 'way back -- of a desire for control of the Middle East/Central Asia. One important piece of the puzzle which has been missing up until now: sufficiently tight grip on domestic politics and opinion to go for it.

Yeah, we need to throw them out. We have six months to nail a crucial election. Quite apart from the politics, are we even sure our votes will count? Or does the steady stream of outrage continue to entertain us so entirely that we're not making sure democracy is still working here? That there is still a leash to put them on?

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

Looking for a solution to the greatest strategic disaster in US History?

 Roadmap begins here:

Man of the moment Radical al-Sadr key to success in Iraq By JUAN COLE Two years ago, U.S. military forces in Iraq viewed the rise of the Mahdi Militia with alarm and set out to kill or capture its leader, radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. They failed. Our forces vastly underestimated al-Sadr's popularity, watching as his supporters rose up to protect him in the battle of Najaf. Though the U.S. military eventually won that battle, al-Sadr himself wasn't weakened. He simply dropped out of sight for a time. Now, this former American Enemy No. 1 has reemerged — as the single, indispensable key to building a sustainable Iraqi government. Al-Sadr's anti-American radicalism is the same as it ever was. He demands our troops withdraw, denounces Israel, commands a powerful militia and continues to reach out to Iran, the Lebanese Hezbollah and rejectionist Palestinian leaders. But his positioning has changed markedly. As leader of a coalition that has the swing vote in the Shiite alliance in the Iraq Parliament, with a strong social movement behind him, al-Sadr is an Iraqi kingmaker. The reason: Al-Sadr remains the only major Shiite leader with credibility among fundamentalist Sunnis. We either deal with him or consign our efforts to build consensus in Iraq to failure. Al-Sadr's importance — and the bind it puts the United States in — was vividly on display this week when Secretary of State Rice, joined by her British counterpart Jack Straw, arrived in Iraq to try to break a logjam over which Iraqi politician would become prime minister in a new government.

 

I heard a person that used to work for the Pentagon in targeting explain their criteria (sorry, can't attribute it exhaustively, heard it on "This American Life").
He said they had some latitude in choice of ordinance and delivery method, including drop angle, that was employed to limit civilian casualities. They assmued, as a starting point, 3-30 collateral casualities, and tried to achieve the lower number. If collateral looked likely to be higher than the high number the target was declined.
Add up the reported 50,000 bombs dropped to date and mutiply by three for a minumum collateral casualty count.

Corvid

Pardon me for stepping into this, but when you question whether Jexster believes that brutal dictatorships are necessary in the Arab world, I wonder whether you're implying that it should be up to any of us to decide that. Is that what you're suggesting?

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

Before we figure out what is to be done, I think it is best to figure out what it is we are to do something about. And since we were speaking of Saudis,

 CIVIL WAR [via Juan Cole]

Saud al-Faisal has also been so impolite as to point out the Iraq is in fact having a civil war: "The definition of civil war is that the people (of a country) are fighting each other ... I don't know what we can call (what is happening) in Iraq except a civil war." Veteran BBC correspondent John Simpson says that Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal predicted before the Iraq war that it would bog down the US and Britain for years, set Shiites and Sunnis at each others' throats, and give an opening for greater Iranian influence. Simpson had asked Saud al-Faisal what the US said when he told them this. He said they did not even seem to be listening. Simpson had asked Saud al-Faisal why he though the Bush administration wanted to go to war. He said that Cheney had told him, "because it is do-able." Simpson explains all the reasons for which it wasn't really. And, anyway, what the hell kind of reason is that to go to war?

 

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

Before we figure out what is to be done, I think it is best to figure out what it is we are to do something about. And since we were speaking of Saudis,

 CIVIL WAR [via Juan Cole]

Saud al-Faisal has also been so impolite as to point out the Iraq is in fact having a civil war: "The definition of civil war is that the people (of a country) are fighting each other ... I don't know what we can call (what is happening) in Iraq except a civil war." Veteran BBC correspondent John Simpson says that Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal predicted before the Iraq war that it would bog down the US and Britain for years, set Shiites and Sunnis at each others' throats, and give an opening for greater Iranian influence. Simpson had asked Saud al-Faisal what the US said when he told them this. He said they did not even seem to be listening. Simpson had asked Saud al-Faisal why he though the Bush administration wanted to go to war. He said that Cheney had told him, "because it is do-able." Simpson explains all the reasons for which it wasn't really. And, anyway, what the hell kind of reason is that to go to war?

 

J. McCutchen "JmacSF"

San Francisco. CA

What is unfolding in Iraq?  Bad execution or big mistake?

Another general with a tardy conscience says war was a mistake...(TIME)

In 1971, the rock group The Who released the antiwar anthem Won't Get Fooled Again. To most in my generation, the song conveyed a sense of betrayal by the nation's leaders, who had led our country into a costly and unnecessary war in Vietnam. To those of us who were truly counterculture--who became career members of the military during those rough times--the song conveyed a very different message. To us, its lyrics evoked a feeling that we must never again stand by quietly while those ignorant of and casual about war lead us into another one and then mismanage the conduct of it. Never again, we thought, would our military's senior leaders remain silent as American troops were marched off to an ill-considered engagement. It's 35 years later, and the judgment is in: the Who had it wrong. We have been fooled again.
..................................................

So what is to be done? We need fresh ideas and fresh faces. That means, as a first step, replacing Rumsfeld and many others unwilling to fundamentally change their approach. The troops in the Middle East have performed their duty. Now we need people in Washington who can construct a unified strategy worthy of them. It is time to send a signal to our nation, our forces and the world that we are uncompromising on our security but are prepared to rethink how we achieve it. It is time for senior military leaders to discard caution in expressing their views and ensure that the President hears them clearly. And that we won't be fooled again.

Secondly, I recently had a conversation about Saudi Arabia's political stability with a senior Saudi Defense Attache based in a foreign government -- and would rather not identify the person. The Saudi General told me that one of his greatest concerns about Saudi Arabia's future was not that the Iraq War or other regional conflicts would boil over, but rather that the conflicts would be quelled, that the problems in Iraq would more or less stabilize and the fire in the heart of the insurgency would diminish.

The General's concern in that scenario is that the many Saudis that have left the country to fight in these "wars" would come home. That, he said, would create serious internal tensions and possibly create instabilities that would be "difficult to control". This was an astonishing admission from a top General but it seemed candid and honest to me.

I asked then whether it was important for Saudi Arabia's stability for it to have the ability to export these young-ish, male jihadists. The General's one word response: "Absolutely."

This is a particularly stunning admission by a Saudi ofifical that they view it in their best interest for Iraq to remain in civil war indefinitely.  This would seem to be a crimp in any plans like Kerry's to solve the problem through a regional conference.  I am currious to know what Steve thinks about the ramifications of his source's statement. 

I understood that one of the many reasons Bush (41) did not move to oust Saddem was that the Saudis, the royal family being very close to the Bushes, wanted Hussein in power. He both suppressed his own Shia and was a buffer between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Daniel A. Greenbaum

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