Krugman Gets It
Read Paul Krugman's essay on immigration, "The Road to Dubai," in today's New York Times, in which he makes several of the same points I have made on this site.
P.S. Max Sawicky says he agrees with me that a public employment policy can raise wages and agrees that immigration restriction can wage raises (though of course tight labor markets with other origins can raise wages without it--for example during the unsustainable, ephemeral 1990s bubble). What is his disagreement with me, then? He claims that the EITC is not a subsidy to low-wage employers. Of course it is, by definition--the beneficiaries of the EITC comprise three groups: low-wage workers; their employers, whose labor costs are partly subsidized by the state; and the consumers of the goods or services the low-wage workers provide, who like employers receive an indirect subsidy from the government. This is really not in dispute, is it?













Comments (23)
Only by people who have delved into the research literature.
Try looking at it this way: if the boss is willing to pay someone X, and is observed to be paying someone X, and you institute an EIC that provides that person Y, and you then observe the person's income is X + Y, then it is not a subsidy to the employer. It's to the worker. It's a good thing.
Max B. Sawicky
http://maxspeak.org/mt
max@maxspeak.org
March 31, 2006 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm trying to understand how this contradicts Michael's post; if the employee's income is X+Y, and the employer is only on the hook for X, isn't that indirectly a subsidy to the employer of Y? It seems like the only way the answer is no is if the employer wouldn't have to pony up Y if the government didn't (because the labor market was slack enough that they could find some other employee to do the work for < (X+Y), for instance).
March 31, 2006 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Elmo
"It seems like the only way the answer is no is if the employer wouldn't have to pony up Y if the government didn't (because the labor market was slack enough that they could find some other employee to do the work for < (X+Y), for instance)."
This is exactly right: the employer would *not* have to pony up Y to hire the employee in Max's scenario, not, however, because of a slack labor market, but, because the employee is only "worth" X to the employer.
The Y is essentially an extra bit thrown in by other taxpayers over and above what the employee is "worth" (no normatives here, just economics) to their employer.
Now, if the employer was able to offer < X and still get the same worker due to the introduction of the EIC, then you could argue he was getting a benefit (paying the employee less that what he was worth, and, still having the employee show up because he needed a wage to be eligible for the EIC, which, combined with the lower market wage still pushed him out to a income leve at which he was willing to supply labor). Whether or not this is the case is an empirical question, and, the empirics really do seem to indicate that the entirety of the work subsidy is claimed by employees, not employers.
joshb
March 31, 2006 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I suppose in a very roundabout way there are some employers who might tell their low wage employees that one way to increase their income would be to take the monthly EIC payment. Then, it's kindof a subsidy.
But. I would only consider it a subsidy if one could show that employers would have to pay more for the same jobs if there were no EIC. I don't think that is the case. Take away the EIC tomorrow and you'll have many more desperate people, but competition for their jobs will remain the same, as will the wages those jobs pay.
March 31, 2006 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I saw nothing in Krugman's columns about how the democrat's are selling out the "American worker," have been hijacked by gay elites of color that do not care about the working class, and do not care about policing the border. So actually, Krugman appears to make none of the points that you have been making recently.
Krugman's column, unlike what we have become accustomed to from Mr.Lind, is moderate in tone and fairly represents differing views in the debate. I think everyone here can agree with Krugman's main point, that a guest worker program like they have in Dubai (and in Senator Crnyn' bill) which does not allow workers to become citizens is a really bad idea. Luckily such a program was not included in the compromise bill voted out of the judiciary committee.
Krugman holds, rather wishy-washily ("the effects of low-skilled immigration are mixed at best") that low-skill immigrants drive down wages in low-skill occupations. And then worries that a guest worker program that does not provide a path to citizenship is dire for the political health of the nation.
I am not sure whether to agree with the first point and I heartily endorse the second. (I do not know whether the studies Krugman relies on to reach his first conclusion take into account the fact that "low-skill" immigrants are really "no-rights" immigrants. Anyone can tell you that workers without the right to organize will exert downward pressure on the wages of workers with the right to organize).
But anyway, I generally like what Paul Krugman has to say about immigration, even if I disagree with it on some salient points. I'd have to say that his position seems a lot like Nathan's (see http://www.tpmcafe.com/node/28255 )
March 31, 2006 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the employer was paying X, was willing to pay X, and still pays X after the grant of the benefit, to me (and to every economist in Creation), that means it is not a subsidy to the employer. The employer's own income is changed not a whit. It is a subsidy to the worker, whose income is increased. If with no subsidy the employer needed to pay X + Y to get the worker, and a subsidy to the worker of Y is provided, and then afterwards you observe the worker's income as X + 2Y, it's still a subsidy to the worker.
The distribution of the benefit depends on how behavior changes on each side of the transaction (demand and supply of labor -- technically, the elasticities). Absent a tutorial on this, the best I can tell you is that the observed outcomes re: the EITC are higher incomes, not lower wages.
Max B. Sawicky
http://maxspeak.org/mt
max@maxspeak.org
March 31, 2006 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
On paper, what neoclassical theory would predict is that the employee would be paid X + Y - epsilon, epsilon > 0 , and so the employer and/or the consumer pockets the epsilon. The epsilon is the implicit subsidy to employers and consumers.
What Max claims is that in practice, epsilon seems to be essentially zero, or even has thwe wrong sign. One of the first things one should learn in economics is you should never take the on-paper models too seriously, especially if data is available that contradicts the model.
March 31, 2006 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Way to be, Max. This argument is eerily reminiscent of the minimum wage article. As, theoretically with my handy-dandy supply and demand graph, minimum wages increase unemployment (or depress employment). yet, obvervable, real-world data tell us otherwise. Likewise, my supply and demand chart may in fact be able to show you that if you have an employer paying wage X and you introduce an EITC of Y, the wage will become X-Y, and the after-EITC income of worker will be X-Y+Y or X. Therefore, a subsidy to employer. Yet, our data tells us the wage doesn't even go down by a fraction of X--it just remains at X, and the worker gets 100% of Y. I mean, the EITC would probably be a good idea up to some fraction of Y lower than 100% going to the worker--the fact that it is indeed the full 100% both helps workers and (should) let the Michael Linds sleep well knowing they didn't give one penny out in corporate welfare!
again, way to be, Max.
March 31, 2006 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
second sentence...."article" should be "argument"
March 31, 2006 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it also the case that Medicaid does not subsidize employers?
And if it is not the case (and I have no idea one way or the other), how do employers scoop up that subsidy but leave the EITC "subsidy" on the table?
March 31, 2006 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Two things. One is that, if I understand economics right, epsilon should be a function of the elasticity of supply in the labor market. In other words, how much less will a worker now accept because she is getting her wages subsidized upward by Y? Which is the same curve with a translation X-> X+ Y.
In my limited knowledge, theory of minimum wage is that there are a lot of forces (even absent illegal immigration) at the lower end of the labor market that drive the total wage someone will accept down below socially acceptable levels (e.g. towards destitution). After all, we implemented minimum wage laws long before there was substantial illegal immigration. So a solid minimum wage is critical to make the EITC work at all, and is far more important in controlling wages than the presence or absence of EITC - especially given its complicated eligibility rules and relatively modest beneifts.
Anyone care to correct my misunderstandings?
March 31, 2006 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
How do we know that Y does not suppress the growth of X? That Y does not replace the raise (X+Z?) for a low skilled worker who is at the very least dependable and shows up on time. Presumably there is an administrative cost for finding and training lost workers that is captured by the employer when employees remain on the job. The dependable worker may be "worth" X+Z to the employer but if Y=Z then the employee may see no benefit in seeking Z.
March 31, 2006 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Man! What a bunch of ivory tower egg head crap! Obviously few in this thread, especially Dr. Sawicky, have ever had to make payroll.
Every small business owner knows that EITC is a subsidy to the employer. If having a choice between two applicants, one who will qualify for EITC and one who wont, we'll always pick the one who will be needing and demanding a pay raise later rather than earlier.
March 31, 2006 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's interesting, Kache. Just how does that work? I'm weak on EITC eligibility. What would an employer look for to let him know that a prospective employee was or wasn't eligible?
March 31, 2006 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
KACHE WROTE "If having a choice between two applicants, one who will qualify for EITC and one who won't , we'll always pick the one who will be needing and demanding a pay raise later rather than earlier" UNQUOTE.............................................Won't any minimum wage employee at least "need " a pay raise ? And won't whether he or she "demands" one depend so much on a variety of personal factors that EITC will play a minor role . And therefore aren't Kache, Sawicky AND Lind all drawing overly firm conclusions . Next subject........
April 1, 2006 7:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ellen -- This seems to be the same issue. If the claim that Medicaid subsidizes employers comes down to the claim that without Medicaid they would have to raise wages or provide better insurance plans for their employees -- on pain of losing their workforce -- that's simply an empirical question, though not an easy one to decide. My wild-assed non-scientific guess is that for jobs that pay so little that the people who have them are eligible for Medicaid, the answer to it is probably no, they wouldn't, so it's not a subsidy to employers. Why wouldn't they have to? That part of the labor market is slack and the people in it have very few alternatives.
April 1, 2006 7:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mark Schmitt seems (I think) to believe that Medicaid does subsidize employers; see here: "What we have here is a massive decision by the federal government to subsidize low-wage work rather than to force employers to pay more or provide basic benefits."
April 1, 2006 9:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen "JmacSF"
San Francisco. CA
April 1, 2006 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sort of depends what "force" means. If the government took away your mother's Social Security benefit, that might "force" you to support her, but it's stretch to say that her benefit is therefore a subsidy to you rather than to her.
April 1, 2006 6:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just got done reading some of Mr. Lind's work at New America, my question is, with his views on Trade, Immigration, Israel, etc. How exactly is he different from Pat Buchanan? So far as I can tell, there isn't any difference.
Perhaps the Reform party is more up his alley.
April 1, 2006 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just a note on the EITC: Yes, it does subsidize both working low wage taxpayers AND their employers. What I'd point out, and I'm not sure about this, it's just something I fear is true, is that there are some jobs, and some services that people provide in working those jobs, that society would rather do without rather than support (by paying increased prices) better pay for those involved in the field. In all too many cases, like in landscaping or gardening or drywall work, the people doing the work are doing it out of necessity, but there is also a myriad of underpaid white collar work that people take on, sometimes out of necessity and sometimes out of choice or hope for future reward (for examples, data entry, or being somebody's assistant). it seems to me that if the underpaid worker is on the path to something better (could be in any of my examples, btw -- assistant moves to an indepedent staff position, a drywaller, perhaps, starts an indepdent drywalling business) than the subidy is okay. But, when it leaves the worker stagnant and chronically underpaid for life, it isn't. Not sure what conclusion to draw from that, but that's my impression.
thosethingswesay.blogspot.com
April 1, 2006 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is a very interesting point. It actually speaks to many here. The isolationism, the anti-free trade, anti-Israeli nature of many of the posts here at the Cafe makes it seems the Left has come around to meet Buchanan's Rightwing populism.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
April 2, 2006 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please read this article: <a href="http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_hassett&sid=aRqmOcE7fSKw">In U.S. Immigration Debate, Specter Has It Right</a>
It is the most wonderful article I have found in the immigration debate.
April 3, 2006 7:46 AM | Reply | Permalink