The India Nuclear Deal Can Be Improved
Jim Steinberg’s right, the nuclear deal with India is flawed and represents a missed opportunity. But the fact that it won’t be able to go through without Congress changing the law and the Nuclear Supplier’s Group changing their guidelines means that there is still time to get it right.
First, let’s be clear about what’s wrong with the agreement and what’s not. I, for one, don’t buy the argument of many in the non-proliferation priesthood that this deal somehow blows a giant hole in the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. There’s plenty of holes in that Treaty already — not least the fact that a whole host of countries have been caught cheating on their commitments, including not just Iran but also North Korea, Libya, South Korea, and Egypt. Nor do I think that we should treat every country in the world the same, no matter what their proliferation behavior or how it is ruled. As I argued when the outlines of this deal was first announced, it matters that India is a democracy and that it has a stellar non-proliferation record. Which is why this kind of agreement makes sense when it comes to India, and why it would make no sense at all if it were to come to a country like Pakistan.
Clearly, though, there are flaws in the agreement. One problem is that it leaves up to India the question of which reactors will be subjected to international inspections and which will not. The idea that 14 of the 22 nuclear facilities are to be classified as civilian, and therefore subject to permanent international inspection, is a big step in the right direction. But India is embarking on a major expansion of its nuclear program. And while all facilities built with imported technology will be safeguarded, some (including possibly new fast breeder reactors that would produce more plutonium than they consume) might not be placed under any such supervision. That’s a mistake. Another flaw is the fact that Delhi insists on subjecting its facilities to Indian-specific rules for international inspections. That, too, is a mistake, and the IAEA should refuse.
The larger flaw of the deal is the context in which it was negotiated. Jim is absolutely right that Bush missed a major opportunity to place the India agreement within a larger framework designed to revise and renew the nuclear bargain that has guided our non-proliferation policy for decades. One key element of such a revision is the internationalization of fissile material production as well as a worldwide ban on the production of any fissile material for weapons purposes. India could have been drawn into such a larger international framework, thus addressing a key concern of the non-proliferation priesthood. But as we know, Bush isn’t much into international agreements, so he let this opportunity pass.
But that doesn’t mean others — notably Congress — should accept this as an inevitable outcome. After all, Congress (and the NSG) will have the last word on this — not the administration or India. And as the price for agreeing to change the law in ways that will make the transfer of nuclear technology possible, Congress can insist that the key flaws in the U.S.-India agreement be rectified. It can also require that the administration get serious about addressing the fissile material production issues. In fact, because the NSG will also have to change its guidelines, there’s a ready-made opportunity to finally get some international movement on this question — one that will internationalize the production of fissile material for peaceful purposes and permanently ban its production for weapons purposes.
So rather than getting our heads up, let’s use the opportunity Bush’s India deal has provided us to get serious about strengthen the international non-proliferation deal.















Americans should applaud this deal with India. As seems to always be the case with the Bush Administration, hypocricy is the foundation of most arguments. On issues such as Iraq, the anti-Bush crowd screams that he abusing American power by forcing our way of life on others. Yet in instances such as the India nuclear agreement, the anti-Bush crowd accuses Bush of not effecting American interests enough and "missing an opportunity." Where is the distinction? People, this is called hypocricy. Cherry-picking political issues is an old trick but it certainly does not withstand the test of reason and common sense. Why does nobody give Bush credit for defusing the India/Pakistan spat? Under Bill Clinton it appeared as if a major war between the two nations was a distinct possibility. Under Bush, the two countries have put their differences on the back-burner and even the hotbed of Kashmir has not made news in many months. Rather than focusing on fairly minor flaws in the new nuclear agreement, let's acknowledge that it is a positive step in the right direction.
March 3, 2006 7:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
The near war between Pakistan and India occured over Kashmir while Bush was President. it seemed of a peice with the attacks by Al Qaeda here. According to the Financial Times it was Jack Straw of England and to a much lesser extent Colin Powell who disfused a possible war between India and Pakistan.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
March 3, 2006 7:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Being from India originally, I am not in favor of India promoting nuclear energy for civilian use. Nuclear technology is still not foolproof - India has had continuing trouble with the reactors it has developed, but has also been lucky that no Chernobyl magnitude incident has come its way. Even if no accidents occur during the life time of the reactors, storage of the nuclear waste material is another huge headache. Even here in US, we have not figured out a safe way to store it - the Yucca Mountain proposal is still not final after years of debate and scientific studies. India's population density is 3x that of US, and while there still are some uninhabited areas (like the Thar desert), often there are habitations in not too distant proximity. It certainly does not have as vast tracts of open space as we have here in the western states.
India is very rich in coal. While raw coal burning is a disaster for the environment, coal gassification or synfuel technologies might be better. India can also get natural gas from its neighbors (Bangladesh and Iran) - but the political will is lacking (internally in Bangladesh and through US pressure in the case of getting it from Iran). Other renewable forms of energy (solar, wind, hydro) are also good target opportunities for India to solve its growing energy budget. These are primarily my reasons for not supporting India's attemtp to develop nuclear energy for civilian purposes.
I am fully supportive of India developing nuclear weapons technology, primarily because of the continued threat from Pakistan. Now that it is no secret that Pakistan begged, borrowed, and stole technology (from Holland to start with and then several western countries like US and Germany under different guises), and China actively helped it, it leaves India in a vulnerable position to give up nuclear arms in the face of such declared threats. But that is another column, another day.
Now what is most interesting to me is the rank stink of US hypocrisy under the present administration concerning the nuclear proliferation stance. India initially opposed signing the NPT because of its uneven application - allowing the 5 nuclear club members to keep their arsenal while prohibiting others. WHY? I heard Joe Cirincionne (sp?) argue yesterday - that does not hold water because all nuclear states are also bound by this treaty to reduce their arsenals. And in reality what is happening? Yes, some conventional warheads and weapons have been destroyed, but this Bush administration has been putting tons of money into new classes of nuclear weapons and other technologies like thermobaric weapons (bunker busters in common parlance). US does one thing and preaches another thing. All of those who are saying this deal is bad - I have not seen such vehement argument in favor of holding the US to the same spirit of the NPT - it is not enough to just hold them to the letter of the agreement. China has been proliferating (to Pakistan and North Korea) and the US has chosen to ignore it (or just slaps on the wrist much much later). Great! I think US commentators have little moral ground to sound so indignant when they quietly acqueisce to US blatantly violating all that the NPT stands for.
March 3, 2006 9:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen "JmacSF"
San Francisco. CA
The Nuclear deal should be rejected. It undermines the NPT and unnecessarily complicates non-proliferation efforts aimed at Iran. In return, Bush got what? A counterweight to China? Flying pigs alert.
As someone on Washington Week put it, Bush is trying to rewrite world non-proliferation policy all by himself.
He must be stopped. It is just that simple
March 4, 2006 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
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www.wreckedband. com | Homepage | 03.03.06 - 12:40 am | #
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www.wreckedband. com | Homepage | 03.03.06 - 12:51 am | #
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March 4, 2006 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink