Secretary Leavitt released a progress report today on the Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit. With the Administration still in spin mode, the report boasts that 25 million enrollees are now receiving prescription drug benefits. The report does not, however, tell us how many of these enrollees actually had another form of drug coverage prior to the enactment of Part D. As we pointed out last week, it looks like all but a few million already had some form of drug coverage, which would make the 25 million number pretty anemic. The Administration is also stating its overall enrollment goal as 28 to 30 million, but a new report by Families USA shows that even these numbers are spin: the Administration released official estimates in the Federal Register in January 2005 projecting that 39.1 million beneficiaries would have drug coverage as a result of the Part D legislation.

The report goes on to say that:

By the end of 2005, however, the Administration had quietly scaled back its projection by 10 million people, to 28 to 30 million beneficiaries. It has offered no explanation for its dramatically reduced coverage projections for Part D, other than citing unspecified "Wall Street analysts." Nevertheless, it is using these smaller estimates to support its claim that enrollment in the new program is "exceeding expectations," as Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt stated...If enrollment is exceeding expectations, it is only because expectations have been greatly diminished.

The longer Administration officials spin these enrollment figures, the more out of touch they appear.