College Costs, Benefits and Risk: Can the Middle Class Afford It?
Last night, in my seminar on the Economics and Policies of the Middle Class, the subect was college. We had a terrific guest, Dr. Susan Dynarski of the Kennedy School of Government, an economist who is a self-described contrarian on the subject of public support for student loans. We read data-choked reports on the cost of college and financing college.
Dr. Dynarski’s takeaway was clear: Sure, the cost of college is skyrocketing, but college pays off in long-term income. And the policy implication? The people who go to college should pay for it—without government help. I read the same data and asked a different question: Can all families afford to take the risk that college will pay off for their children?
The policy argument is well supported by the data. Over time college is a great investment. By Dr. Dynarski's careful, detailed present-value calculation, including college costs and income lost while a student, college is a great lifetime deal. And, college grads are leaving non-grads further behind economically, so it is getting better. The policy implications are classic economics: The benefits are reaped by those who go to college (higher earnings), so let them pay for it—and don’t push the costs onto non-college grads who pay taxes to support state schools.
But what about risk? That increased earning over time is median earnings, not guaranteed earnings. Half are above, but half are below. Families and individuals must make their financing decisions one at a time, making outlays for themselves and their own children, not for statistical averages. What if this kid doesn’t get a good job? Doesn’t graduate on time? Gets sick? Looks the wrong way when she crosses the street? The family or the student has invested in an education that won’t pay off.
One key to risk, of course, is that rich families and working families have to make that calculation very differently. For the wealthy, the downside risk carries a low cost, but for a typical middle class family, the cost of college is one more very large rock in a heavy basket of risk.
I understand the argument for unsubsidized college, but let’s talk about what it does to middle class families.


I think we all should help pay for the things that benefit all of society. That includes good roads, good sewer systems, safe water supplies, and, of course, a good education system. Our society can't continue to be one of the world's best if the next generations don't get good educations. Doctors can make a lot of money, for example, but the rest of us need those doctors to be well trained and in good supply. Engineers can make a lot of money (or they used to be able to), but the rest of us need our industries to be competitive in the world in order to have good jobs with good incomes. So, I have always supported education spending, having never voted against a school tax or bond in my life.
I am now retired, and enjoying it immensely. But, that is because there were things I wanted to do that I could only do in retirement. Not everyone has such a list of things, and to expect that they would enjoy retirement as I have could be a mistake. And, it is also a mistake to expect that everyone who goes to college will earn a big economic return from doing so. Unless they attend a college with a goal in mind, seeking the education that qualifies them for a job, or prepares them to run a business of their own, they may well gain little economically from the education. So, it really isn't a sure thing that if we push our children to attend college they will gain lifetime economic benefits from our doing so. That is a poor reason for sacrificing as much as many families have to to send the kids to college.
Hoppy in Sacramento
February 21, 2006 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
If your kid's IQ is 110+, send her to college, but don't expect the rest of society to pay for your good fortune.
February 21, 2006 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
February 21, 2006 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sure, lots of investments pay off; that doesn't mean that everyone can manage the initial outlay. Public support for student loans allows students to reap the benefits of that investment who might not otherwise be able to do so.
February 21, 2006 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dynarski's argument seems weird to me, from this little blurb anyway. Put in the framework of the old "give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day,teach him how to fish and he'll eat forever" adage -- it's kind of like arguing that there should be no public support for helping people learn how to fish because they will reap the benefit. Instead, there should only be public support for giving people fish...? Or no public support for any kind of fish-related activities at all, I guess.
February 21, 2006 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are a few different issues mixed up here. First let's be very careful to talk about public and private colleges separately. In most states an independent student can get an excellent education at a public college and end up only $20,000 in debt. That's not too onerous, subsidized or not. A private college like Harvard or Skidmore charges $33,000 a year for tuition and fees. That's a lot of money. Is the question whether loans for Harvard should be subsidized?
Or is the question whether the costs of public colleges should be mostly supported by the public? Then we have to ask, who is paying for and who is getting this benefit. An we have to ask whether cheap and excellent public education really does improve a state's economic prospects.
February 21, 2006 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
The real issue for us to consider is the societal benefit of higher education. I believe the era of the factory and good paying production jobs has ended. There are going to be fewer and fewer jobs for the undereducated. Workers are going to have to be nimble. Only folks who know how to learn are going to be truly employable. I don't think our society can afford the drain of a large uneducated class. I vote for mandatory subsidized post secondary education. That is the best way for us to regain competativeness in the world economy.
Ron Byers
February 21, 2006 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought Dynarski was saying that if it costs money to teach the man to fish and someone else is paying that cost, then, once he learns how to do it, our fisherman should repay that someone.
February 21, 2006 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Public assistance must be available for higher education. Simple.
The reason? If we don't we will end up with people running the country and everything in it that reflect a narrowly defined set of views, restricted knowledge base and experience and maybe most disconcerting of all, a sense of entitlement based on nothing more than birth. Diversity is what makes this country tick. Reducing or eliminating opportunities for persons based upon their economic circumstance is to remove an essential piece of the American Pie.
That this is even a topic of discussion is very worrisome.
thepeoplechoose
February 21, 2006 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Public assistance for higher education has been available since at least 1862 when the Morrill Act was adopted. The question is what part of the costs should the public pay and what part the direct beneficiary.
February 21, 2006 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
While I disagree with the fundamental assumption that we should borrow money to pay for college, I do agree that everyone should pay their own way. The problem with borrowing is that you end up paying as much as twice (or more depending on the interest) what you borrowed. Government subsidies only contribute to inflation when paid for with tax revenue.
Policy Suggestion
What I would suggest as a public policy for a solution is greater tax incentives for corporations and foundations to provide significantly more scholarship money based on financial need than we currently have. Also, a public policy to cap tuition and fees for undergraduate degrees would go a long way. The increase in population of the college educated would bring far more value to the economy, and our standard of living, than if we did it with tax revenue.
The reason, I believe, that income data shows that college pays off in income, is that it has been a competitive advantage in the workplace in the past that gave graduates a head start. Nowadays it no longer has the competitive edge it used to be. It has become a requirement, unless you want to flip burgers, or sweep the floor for a living. Those who can't afford it are left with no options, and this contributes to a growing lower class. Some feel they must borrow their way through college to buy the ticket to participation in our society, no matter how risky it may seem. This creates a tolerance for debt, and a belief that debt pays off. That belief eventually leads back to poverty for the vast majority of people. A policy that gives the education without the debt burden, allows college graduates the freedom to pursue their dreams and make a difference. Isn't that supposed to be the American Dream that makes this country great?
The Real Investment
Intellectual capital is something that is vital to the future of our country's competitiveness in the world. In fact, with the passing of the industrial age and those jobs disappearing, it is critical. We no longer are the industrial leaders setting the standards on designing and manufacturing products. Now we manage knowledge and use it to create value. Intellectual capital is our country's greatest competitive weapon, and we should make an investment in it. We need to learn how to account for the knowledge assets we have and how to use them for our competitive advantage. It is now the hidden gold in our country, and it needs to be used or it will be lost. The sooner our leading corporations realize this and invest in it, the sooner we'll stimulate new and authentic economic growth, versus growth determined by the state of the financial markets.
Jim Anderson
www.lighthouseonline.net
February 21, 2006 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I vote for mandatory subsidized post secondary education.
You mean the boredom and misery of high school should be extended an additional four years?
February 21, 2006 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
The cost of college, when it includes debt, is too high for many in the lower and middle class. Those who don't have parents or other resources to serve as a financial safety net are taking on a substantial risk if they assume educational debt. If these students are unable to finish school for some reason (personal, family, pregnancy, etc.), they are still on the hook to repay the loans, without the benefit of the higher salaries that come from having a college education.
One of the statistics we discussed in the seminar indicated that on average it takes from age 18 to 33 to fully recoup the cost of a BA degree. In other words, those who simply graduate from high school and start working will have more net income than those choosing the college route until about 15 years out, when the college graduates pull ahead. Although college grads continue to make more and more money in the long run, those first fifteen years of lower income represent a very long period of forgone earnings. The big picture promise of higher long term earnings is a tough sell to a student with limited resources contemplating taking on large amounts of debt today.
Stacy Anderson
February 21, 2006 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
By that logic, almost every company every created should be "paying back" at rates similar to college loans for all the public investments that support its business. Unfortunately, that's a backwards-looking view, and easily breaks down into "I shouldn't have to pay for anything I don't consume directly".
Education is infrastructure, and infrastructure is a forward-reaching investment. Just as with building roads (a massive infrastructure investment undertaken by a Republican, and unflinchingly supported by tax dollars), our country needs an infrastructure of workers who can think critically and adapt. I'm in IT, and I can tell you I will not hire (or unhappily at best) someone without a college degree, even to do desktop support. For me to be comfortable that they will be able to learn what they need to get the job done, they need some kind of college. A single business or industry cannot do this itself - it needs a broad talent pool, and only wide-open access to education will provide it.
February 21, 2006 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I always find it odd that the debate around paying for college revolves so much around the issues of helping parents pay for their children's college education, government subsidy, and repaying student loans, and doesn't focus more on how to hold students responsible for but also make it more practical for them to pay for part of their education before and while they're in school.
According to the College Board, at 4 year public colleges about 60% of students pay less than $6,000 in tutition and fees, and the total cost of attendance (including room, board, books, travel, etc) is, on average, a little over $12,000. Most students should be able to make enough, between summer and part-time jobs, to cover at least half of these costs. National service is another strategy that helps students cover part of their own costs by working in lower-paid national service jobs for a few years. Requiring college students who are future high earners and leaders to put in some time in voluntary and/or low-wage service jobs to pay part of their own way would make them more motivated to work hard in school and would also have long term benefits as it would increase future leaders' recognition of the plight of those trapped in lousy jobs for life.
February 21, 2006 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
. . . I will not hire (or unhappily at best) someone without a college degree . . . .
And more's the pity.
February 21, 2006 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
We have to keep in mind that more and more students are getting pushed out of four-year public colleges as more kids apply and public colleges increase their selectivity. Kids that are not accepted at state schools currently must choose between forgoing college education or attending a bottom rung private school--which will mean lots of debt and questionable payoff. Making sure public four-year colleges are affordable is only part of the solution; colleges must be given the resources needed to expand their student body as acquiring a college degree becomes increasingly crucial.
February 21, 2006 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Public support for studen loans benefits the public as well. A scientist who would have been a short order chef without the education opportunity, may be the one who figures out how to generate electricity using safe thermonuclear reactors, which benefit all of us.
Hoppy in Sacramento
February 21, 2006 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually I was thinking our country would benefit from improving both our high schools and colleges. We might start by teaching people how to do research. Maybe we could hire teachers who would instill a love of learning in their students. I can dream can't I.
Ron Byers
February 21, 2006 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most students realize that student loans are generally not dischargable in bankruptcy. College debt follows them and their co-signing parents to the grave. This means that if they take on debt they have to place themselves on the fastest possible track to a good paying job. That might seem a reasonable idea, and it is certainly one, I suspect, an economist like Dr. Dynarski would support, but the nation needs risk takers. It probably needs them more than it needs worker bees.
Assume for a moment you are right out of college and your choice is to participate in a high risk startup or take a nice safe job. Your student loans are coming due. Which job do you take?
February 21, 2006 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't overlook community colleges. They provide basics at an affordable price. Lots and lots of middle class kids are starting at a junior college and actually transferring to a higher priced university or college after a couple of years. My son did and graduated with a degree in physics. He is now working on his masters. He saved a bundle of money. Nobody asks where he went to school his first two years. All they care about is where he graduated. Of course, he is a self starter, with high SATs. Your student's results might vary.
Ron Byers
February 21, 2006 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with Mr. Anderson's post, and follow up with a rhetorical question:
Who is the beneficiary of a good education?
I submit that the naive answer is, "he student".
I believe that the correct answer is "the society".
Don't we *need* the creativity, the productivity of everyone capable of doing the work? Societies don't build wealth by holding their citizens back, they build wealth by maximizing the effectiveness of those who produce.
Focusing too tightly on individual students is to lose sight of the broader implications of an educated workforce. This is not asuggestion that a good education should be free. This is instead a suggestion that a good education must be earned through hard work, diligence and long hours of study.
February 21, 2006 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't get me started on launching a new business with debt, especially while you still have a student loan. Entrepreneurs aren't "risk takers" like they are categorized. They take educated risks, and avoid risk whenver possible. The problem is that the banking and legal system has found ways to con entrepreneurs into risking everything for a business. The risk, for those who really understand what it is, is too high to start a business in this country these days, because of the interdependence on other businesses who have poor or just plain bad ethics, the complexity of lending contracts, and the price of getting justice when you've been had.
Take it from a former entrepreneur. I'll never launch another business with a business loan, or use credit cards in any form. I've learned some of the tricks and the lack of ethics in the lending community. I know they are not to be trusted, and I can't do business with people I can't trust because contracts are often too expensive to enforce. In the case of a lending contract, they are always unenforceable because you have signed away any enforcement rights anyway. Read yours and see. Before anyone starts a business, they need a good cash cushion, not financed with debt, but with cold hard cash that they own, so they can survive the downside of a business cycle. That is needed at startup, because I can almost guarantee you won't meet your initial projections. A college student, unless he/she has an angel investor that will risk all, or a business partner who will put up the cash, without borrowing from the bank, has no business starting a business. Unless of course it has no fixed overhead, and the living expenses are minimal and covered for two years.
In short, our government is discouraging entrepreneurs of small business, and giving all the power to the big corporations. The small business owner is getting squeezed out of the market by legal costs, increasingly complex regulations, and just larger barriers to competing with large corporations in general due to their congressional influence. So college students either need to become independent contractors, or go to work for a growing public company. Actually, government employee benefits are starting to look good because of the job security, retirement security, easy hours. (what does that say about a country started on the idea of freedom from the oppression of taxation?)
Jim Anderson
www.lighthouseonline.net
February 21, 2006 8:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting post, but you missed my point. A young person just out of college saddled with student loans is not in any position to participate in a startup, not because of costs of the startup, but because the student loans demand prompt payment.
Ron Byers
February 21, 2006 9:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the government should help out more for helping students obtain a college education. In many countries in Europe, for European students, tuition depends on the income of the family and the government picks up the rest of the tab. So when the student graduates, they are not overwhelmed in student loans like in the U.S.
Ann
http://amborg.blogspot.com
February 22, 2006 5:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm finding it really hard to believe that we're actually debating this. Removing or delaying support for college education means that it remains the province of only the well-heeled, reinforcing social, political, and economic inequality while dramatically shrinking the talent pool of the country. How is that not the end of the conversation?
Beyond those (in my mind obvious) normative reasons, refusing to financially support college students makes it even more difficult for people to specialize in unpopular or low-paying majors. If we are relying on future earnings to cover the (potentially very significant) debts of university study, how are we to ever expect students to study literature, languages, music, art, or teaching? And for those who take on the extra debts of law school or medical school, how can we hold a straight face while asking them to become public defenders, rural GPs, or participants in the public sector?
Study after study has shown that students who take on jobs during college have (on average) lower GPAs, are more likely to take extra time to graduate, and participate far less in the life of the university. Talk all you want about the "character-building" sacrifices that these students make, but at the end of the day what you're asking them to do is compound the difficulties of an already challenging task - graduating college. Why SHOULDN'T we invest in these students? Are you really asking me to believe that we can't afford it? How can we afford not to?
February 22, 2006 5:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't understand why we're happy to subsidize with our tax dollars WalMart and other companies that often do more for foreign economies than our own, but when it comes to actually investing in the country by gambling that sending more Americans to college will improve our way of living and our standing in the world, we hem and haw. When are we going to wake up to the fact that our best, most reliable resource is our people and that current policies are squandering that wealth like mad?
I'm automatically suspicious of any argument that makes access to higher education more difficult. Sounds like class war to me. But if we want to devote our economy to supplying service workers for the globalized world, then we should definitely keep our kids out of college. I got mine.
February 22, 2006 6:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
One of the statistics we discussed in class is the percentage of income that the poorest families must devote to the cost of attending college. For a public 2 year college, that number is 37% and for a public 4 year college it is nearly half of their income. It is easy to see how it would be difficult to risk half of your income on the bet that college would pay off. Since the data shows that it does payoff, though, perhaps the question is how we can get families to take that risk.
One answer might be to get someone who has the funds to take the risk up front, and pool the risks of college for a larger group of students. If the benefits are real, then maybe employers should step forward and offer to pay the costs of education, and then allow students to pay back through a percentage of their higher earnings. If the potential for higher income means that the worker becomes more valuable to society, then it seems like a good bet on both sides.
Chad Carr
February 22, 2006 7:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
At the risk of revealing my serious West Wing addiction, I'll offer this: what about making college tuition fully tax deductible? I know we get education credits and tax deductions on loan interest already, but I'm talking about the full amount - tuition, room, board, and books. Seems like a better investment to me than cutting the taxes of the richest 1%, you know?
February 22, 2006 7:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Corvid
What do we get for the investment here? Yes, your child has a big advantage in life with that college stamp on his head, but does he actually get an education? There was a comprehensive study recently that found that more than half of all graduate students (presumably the cream of the crop among college grads) are actually functionally illiterate. On a test, they could read a simple text but could not correctly interpret it. It hasn't gotten much attention, I suppose because we parents out here have just gotten so used to the notion that we in effect have a gun pointed at our heads demanding that we cough up tens of thousands of dollars for a "college education" for our kids. Otherwise, we can watch them disappear into the economic mire. And the income numbers for college grads certainly support that, no question. But what are we actually getting here? Not much. Functionally, a college grad has no appreciable advantage over the average person without a degree. (In fact, the study I'd like to see would measure a student's intelligence as he leaves high school and then 4 years later, when he leaves college. I wouldn't be surprised if there were a significant loss in cognitive function.) What I hear about college these days is that students rarely see a professor and the chief activities are binge drinking and file sharing. The dorms are pretty nice, though. I went to a big state school, a good one, in the 1970s. All but a handful of classes were taught by full professors, and there was nothing like binge drinking. Students were serious, engaged and curious, with a few exceptions. Even so, I have to say that the small-town public high school I attended was more academically rigorous. I suspect that this remains true today. There's a lot more--at least potentially--parental scrutiny and control in local school districts than there ever can be at distant colleges and universities, and students emerging from decent high schools are probably a good deal sharper and more disciplined than they will be after 4 years of lavish and unsupervised dissipation. Yet, those among us without college degrees (two-thirds or more of the population) are basically written off. What a shame. So do middle-class parents need help paying for college? Yes, sadly, they do, just as a small businessman might need help paying for "protection" from the local gang boss. Nice kid. Hate to see something happen to his lifetime earnings potential.
February 22, 2006 7:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you're referring to this article with respect to college graduates' literacy, you may want to be cautious.
As Bob Somerby points out, it appears the author, Lois Romano, misread the NAAL test which had not reported the performance of graduate students.
February 22, 2006 8:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
But tax deductions always favor the rich. A deduction of $40,000 is worth a lot to a family making $250,000 a year; not so much a $10,000 deduction to a family earning $50,000 a year.
February 22, 2006 8:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
But what if that tax deduction enabled the child of a $50K family to attend the $40K school? That would be the whole point - to open up the upper eschelon schools to the middle class and poor kids.
February 22, 2006 8:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
The skyrocketing cost of college tuition is an excellent reason to support an increase in the minimum wage. Opponents of an increased minimum wage often state that the majority of these low paying jobs are held by teenagers to provide extra spending money. Many of these teenagers are preparing to go to college, and higher wages would help them pay for a greater percentage of their tuition up front and reduce the load on taxpayers. It would also allow these students to have a more diverse choice of schools, as they could better afford private school tuition.
February 22, 2006 8:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hate being thought snarky but permit me to remind you that if wishes were horses, beggars would ride.
February 22, 2006 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, you know, you're right. Why think about policy alternatives at all? The market will shake out the worthy ones; everyone else must just not deserve a college education.
Besides, I guess higher education isn't worth anything anyway. We're probably doing the middle class a favor by writing them out of college. Pull themselves up by their bootstraps, that's what they should do.
I *hate* this attitude that we can't do anything about anything. If no policy is worth trying, then let's just scrap it all now, go home, and get drunk.
February 22, 2006 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Elizabeth, do you feel the same way about law school that you do about, ahem, lower schools.l To charge $40,000 a year for future Skadden partners--that in itself doesn't bother me. I'd be perfectly comfortable with coupling it with loan forgiveness programs whereby the students can work it off in the storefronts.
I'm even willing to concede that Skadden partners are a community resource. But they internalize enough of the benefits that I don't have much trouble letting them bear the costs.
February 22, 2006 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink