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How Many Jihadists?

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Tony Corn in Policy Review writes:

The challenge for the West can hardly be overestimated: Even if only 1 percent of the world

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Totally meaningless numbers. The writer has no basis for even guessing, and it makes no sense to think of percentages, as if it were a genetic marker. Since the vast majority of those Muslims are completely unintersted in the US what point is a raw percentage?

Also, it's not like land mines just waiting for an opportunity. Events drive actions, as do overall policies.

The ration of US soldiers in Iraq to US popualtion is roughly 0.0004, or 4/100 of 1%. Or, 4% of 1%. We can conclude absolutely nothing about how many of these soldiers would undertake a suicide mission.

Corn says that there is a "significant financial incentive for the family of the “martyr” — the $25,000 reward offered by the Saudis to families of Palestinian suicide-bombers being the equivalent of $600,000 in the West in terms of purchasing power."

He does not give a source for this claim.  Does anyone know of a report along these lines and maybe, a link to it? 

Yes, you're right, this claim is total poppycock.  Libertarians and Greens in many states in this country even can't get 1% of people to go to the polls and vote for them, much less blow themselves up.  And many US states have greater populations than most Muslim countries.

But hey, who am I to stop people from playing a fun game like that:

If even 1% of drivers succumbed to the temptation to begin driving on the wrong side of the road...

That reminds me of business plan I came up with guaranteed to make me the big dollars.

First, come up with something you can sell to the Chinese for a ten dollar profit.

Second, sell it to just 10% of the Chinese.

I thought I had a winner, but the VC funding passed me up for the guy with the eleven dollar plan. [Apolgies to Steve Martin and There's Something About Mary].

Members of the IRA's active service units in the '80's were estimated at no more than 400, out of an Ulster Catholic population of perhaps 1.2 million.

The 1% of 1% figure would give a hypothetical IRA strength of 120.

So it's not intrinsically whack.

But Ulster is a very compact place, and the Muslim world is very diffuse. In Ulster, the targets were in the next street, not the next continent over.

I included the populations of the neigboring Co.s Monaghan, Cavan, and Donegal in the Republic in my estimate...

Ellen: maybe 25 large will go farther in, say, Amman than it will in New York or Los Angeles, but really, by a factor of 24?
And anyway, wasn't offering payments to families of suicide bombers one of the big reasons President Bush cited as justifying the overthrow of Saddam Hussein? Where's the outrage at the Saudis for doing this (if they do)?
Unfortunately, few writers/commentators have, since 9/11/01 found much of a downside to promulgating overblown and badly-researched estimations of the scope of potential "Islamic terrorism". It certainly is a real threat, no mistake: but its true scale (and thus risk) have mostly (at least in this country) been shrouded in hyperbole and hysteria. Mainly, imo, because there is too big an "industry" which profits from the climate of fear that over-hyped "terror" threats create. Like Big Oil or Big Pharma dominate their niches of the economy, Big Fear does the same for the political sphere. 

Tony Corn longs to become the George F. Kennan of "World War IV," otherwise known as the West's response to the jihadi threat.  But whereas Kennan wrote his 1946 "Long Telegram" from the belly of the beast, Corn writes from a State Department backwater which studies a fading Latin Europe.

Salazar's Portugal and Franco's Spain were both military dictatorships.  Corn understands their democratization to have been the result of a modernization and liberalization of their military officer corps.  He claims that these militaries acted as the stabilizing social force as the countries transitioned to democracy.

It should not, then, be surprising that Corn, influenced by his readings in recent Iberohistory, would recommend that we support and reach out to the Muslim militaries and instruct them in their democratizing roles.  How that is to be accomplished is not made clear.  Indeed, how we could ever trust that these Muslim militaries wouldn't go over to the jihadi side is made no clearer.

To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

 

It looks like Mr. Corn dropped his logic class right after Modus Ponens, and never got to Modus Tollens.

So let's take these numbers as truth, even though I suspect they aren't.  Let us say there are 120,000 potential muslim suicide bombers, and that they all expect their families to collect on this fat $25,000 reward.  Now, doing a little math, we get the figure of $25,000 * 120,000 = 3 billion dollars.  That seems like a lot until you consider that the Iraq war has already cost us on the order of 1 trillion dollars.  It looks like those Muslims make remarkably shrewd investments, or we make really, really lousy ones.

More importantly, before we got into the business of invading other countries as a means of laundering money through tax dollars to corporations, we lost about 3,000 Americans to terrorists.  There are about 300,000,000 Americans, so that's about 0.001% of the population.  Not a very impressive number.  I'm far more concerned over some different numbers: 27, 7, and 1.  The first is the number of amendments that have been made to the consitution, which I fear may be destroyed.  The second is the number of articles of the constitution, and the third is the number of people our current administration seems to believe should be in the body that governs our country.  Compared to this threat, the terrorism we are constantly threatened with seems like a rather paltry thing.
Aren't even that many suicide bombers in occupied territories. How many have there been since the 70s, a few hundred? A few thousand maybe?

By contrast, the Japanese threw that many suicide kamikazes at us in a single battle. And they had to be trained to fly!

I think when these nutcases brag about all the martyrs they've recruited, they are making empty threats. What they really mean is, "We've got some good leads, and as soon as we find someone dumb enough, we'll drug them, tie them to a car wheel, and send them to go kill you infidels!"

This has to be one of the funnier lines in recent public policy prose:

  The challenge for the West can hardly be overestimated

But, hey, just watch me. 

I can do better than Mr. Corn, though. Suppose only two percent were....

I can't believe anybody would publish such drivel.

I was just wondering about this very question. The discussion upthread about the size of the IRA was very helpful.  Does anybody know the numbers for other terrorist organizations? 

I read too many blogs to remember where I saw this, but the person who said remarked that al qaeda mostly consists of uneducated hangers-on.  The downside of using madrassas as indoctrination centers is that the students don't learn anything useful.
 
As soon as they lucked into an engineer willing to suicide who could calculate the energy contained in a fully fueled jumbojet, they used him up.

It astounds me that this threat is being taken as seriously, if not more seriously, than the Soviet threat was.  Not so much that the president is trying to do so, as that it is working. Digby has a theory about that:

 

Of course we all felt real fear in the early days, none so much as those who lived in New York and DC. It was almost unbelievable to see those scenes. But there was a sense of spectacle and drama about it that was <span>literally</span&gt unreal to those of us who watched it on television. This was fear put to music, with dramatic title treatments and a soaring voice-over. Because of that, on some level, 9/11 was a thrill for many people, even some Democrats. It was sad and horrifying, of course, but it was also stimulating, exciting and memorable because of the way it was presented on television. (When we were talking about this, Jane described it as if "the whole country was watching porn together every time the rerun of the towers falling was broadcast.") And we subsequently fetishized the "war on terrorism" to the point where some people become inexplicably excited whenever it is mentioned. They want that big group grope again, that sense of shared sensation. That is the "fear" that people say they have. And it's why they want to vote for the guy who keeps pumping it into the body politic.

(He's wrong about the fear in New York business, though.  We all stayed. We were grim, but not fearful.) 

"<span class="text0">The communication mix (messengers/messages/media) will have to be radically different from that of the Cold War and that, in turn, will require the kind of radical transformation of public diplomacy and information operations called forth by both Condoleezza Rice and Donald Rumsfeld."</span&gt

How fortunate we are to have not one but two Clausewitzes right here in our own Homeland!

With them on the job, I'm not going to lose any sleep over those 120,000 budding suicide bombers.

 

"The evidence suggests that a fair number of people can be persuaded to suicide bomb in the interests of combatting an occupying army (in, for example, Israel or Iraq or Sri Lanka) but that only a vanishingly small number of people are inclined to mount these kind of attacks against the western homeland, not withstanding pretty high levels of generally anti-American views."

 

I think MY has been reading Robert Pape

Corn is making two points that are inherently in conflict. First he says that there's a nearly limitless supply of people willing to kill themselves on Islam's behalf. But then he says that wealthy radicals are willing to pay $25000 to the family of a successful suicide bomber. If you think about it for a second, that $25000 price represents an equilibrium point. If an angry, demented millionaire, or Jihad, Inc., could get more bombings at a lower price with a fixed sum of money, of course they would pay less. So there's no reason to believe, on Corn's data alone, that suicide bombing missions are likely to occur in the future more frequently than they do now.


Besides, the number of suicide bombings that it is possible to carry out will always be, one would think, far lower than the number of people willing to do it.


 

...those are meaningless number games.

I'm far more concerned over some different numbers: 27, 7, and 1.  The first is the number of amendments that have been made to the consitution, which I fear may be destroyed.  The second is the number of articles of the constitution, and the third is the number of people our current administration seems to believe should be in the body that governs our country.  Compared to this threat, the terrorism we are constantly threatened with seems like a rather paltry thing.

 

Much as you may think it true, George Bush is just *not* an existential threat to the US, the Constitution or much of anything else important.  Hell, he's not even an existential threat to Social Security.

Sure, it's generous to call him a halfwit, and he's a really crappy president, but everything's not off to hell in a handbasket, and Islamic terrorism really is a bigger threat to the world than George Bush. 

The key flaw in this line of thinking is to neglect to include the opportunity to participate in a Jihad into the equation.


There's an important distinction between someone who will commit an act of jihadist violence when you hand them a belt bomb and point them in the right direction... and someone who has the necessary connections and financial resources to leave his home and job, seek out a terrorist training camp, and volunteer for an assignment with someone who can finance an international operation.


Shutting down the terror camps in North Africa and Afghanistan was a tremendous blow to the ability of al-Qaida style terrorists to reach our shore.


But creating a long-running ground conflict in the region will create the opposite effect.  Not only do we kill innocent bystanders and radicalize their loved ones, but we give people in the region who were already willing to attack us an easier opportunity to do so, and in the process enable them to make connections with other jihadists in a network that crosses borders.  We increase the chances that some kid in Baghdad-- who might otherwise have settled down, started a family, and hated us from afar-- will make the connections that will ultimately hook him up with a plane ticket to Washington and a backpack bomb.


No Afghanis were among the 9/11 hijackers, but the organizations that brought them together were stacked with veterans of the Afghan war against the USSR.  The next wave of Jihadists will undoubtedly be veterans of the Iraq insurgency.  It's a vicious cycle.

One could look within America for a risk far greater than Islamic Suicide Jihadists. 9/11 killed approximately 3,000 innocent Americans. Since that date, approximately 60,000 Americans have been murdered in this country. Yet hardly a word about this is mentioned. Frankly, our risk of getting killed by a fellow American is far, far,far greater than from a suicide bombing. Yet we go crazy over the smaller threat because it is something we don't understand. Murder is something that Americans understand. We may not like it but we tolerate it. Consequently, we will end up spending trillions of dollars and countless soldiers lives on the WOT to ameliorate a miniscule risk.

There was the torture of prisoners, the indefinite detention of US citizens, the numerous method of election fraud, the end-runs around congress, the spying, and the proud proclamations the president does not have to follow the law.  All these things, and probably a few more that I forgot to list, lead me to believe that a president who seems hell-bent on gathering as much power to himself and breaking as many laws as are inconvenient, in combination with a "roll over and play dead" press, a congress that fully approves of all executive actions, regardless of what they may be, and a supreme court who, if not happy with his actions, at least seems unable to do anything about them, are a greater danger to the US then anything else we are facing right now.

Now, I'll grant you, if we continue to piss them off, threaten them, and attack countries they occupy, eventually the 1.2 billion and growing islamic peoples can, terrorists or not, become a great threat to the US.  However, our president who is causing them to become a threat and seems to treat the constitution like toilet paper, is, in my mind, a far greater danger right now.

It's not all  his fault.  The growing wave of extremist Islamic fundamentalism, like the growing wave of extremist Christian fundamentalism, is a great danager to the world in and of itself.  We should be trying to deal with them both, and making these movements grow is not what I mean by dealing with them.

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