If tax cuts generated revenue reliably why do we have such a monstous deficit?

Please read the post below this one, about the recent offering from the Economic Policy Institute. Using government figures, such as Defense' estimate of private-sector jobs created, it seems clear that all new jobs came from government spending.

Combined with the tax cuts, we now have a draconian budget bill that still can only muster a $39b deficit reduction. Pretty feeble.

How about this from 1992, by J. Bradford DeLong, Danziger Professor of Economics, Harvard:

In large part the problems and opportunities that Clinton and his advisors face today were also faced by Kennedy and his advisors in 1960. Then economic management was extraordinarily successful. Up to the end of the decade, when Johnson's unwillingness to tax in order to pay for the Vietnam War began the upward spiral of inflation, the 1960s were an economic golden age: unemployment was low, productivity growth extremely rapid, and the fruits of prosperity relatively equally distributed--we have not seen its like since. The success of Kennedy's economic policies can teach us lessons about how Clinton should proceed. But we cannot expect too much, and we surely cannot expect another growth golden age like the 1960s. Eisenhower handed Kennedy a sluggish economy like the one that Bush has handed Clinton. But Eisenhower handed Kennedy a federal budget in sound shape, while Bush hands Clinton--the budget deficit....

So we cannot expect Clinton's economic advisors to deliver to us a golden administration of economic growth like the one that Kennedy's economic advisors delivered some thirty years ago. The best that we can hope for is something like a bronze age, with at least some steps taken to encourage public and private investment, and some steps taken to make the federal budget somewhat less of a drag on the American economy.

Boy, does it feel strange to read this now. Nostalgia just ain't what it used to be. 

 

before you embarass yourself further, primob, go read this:

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/69xx/doc6908/12-01-10PercentTaxCut.pdf

a very detailed study by the CBO.

Now, for the record: there is such a thing as an honest supply-side tax cut. That consists of two elements: a.) cutting marginal rates at the high end to improve incentives; b.) cutting spending to make the government smaller as a share of the economy.

Honest supply siders - say, for instance, Bruce Bartlett, who's new book on the bush administration also (based on what i've seen of it) will eviscerate your arguments - will claim (correctly) that there are "dynamic" effects of tax cuts that result in higher revenue than a "static" analysis would suggest will arise from said tax cuts, but there isn't an honest supply sider in the known universe who will claim that tax cuts automatically generate more revenue than tax increases.

that is completely and totally a falsehood, and anyone who utters it loses any credibility in any discussion of fiscal policy, and there is no "documented" demonstration that "tax cuts generate more revenue than tax increases."

you also don't seem to know much about capital gains and dividends: they might be invested in growth-producing opportunities. they might also be spent on a vacation, a new home, a car, expensive liquor, cocaine, and 1001 other possibilities. Once the capital gain is exercised by the owner of the shares, or the dividend is distributed, he/she can do anything his/her heart desires.

now, if you want to say that lower capital gains taxes increases the incentive for risk-taking, you're on solid ground, but that's a far sight different from your ill-informed remark.

Meanwhile, making the existing cuts permanent is the direct opposite of sound fiscal policy. The deficit - which does have to be paid off - explodes even more if you extend the tax cuts. As a result (and see the study i pointed you to earlier), other problems get in the way of growth, like higher interest rates that arise in the long-run from a mismatch of revenue and spending.

anyone who wants to extend the tax cuts must first explain how you're going to cut spending to keep the budget in balance (over the course of the business cycle) after the tax cuts are extended. sadly, it can't be done, as even you seem to acknowledge at the end, so how is it that you think we will ever balance the budget.

don't forget: an unbalanced budget is simply a tax deferral: someone has to pay it back.

or, you can do what george bush wanted to do last year: you can arbitrarily declare that the government doesn't actually have to pay back the social security trust fund. you saw where that got him....

The ability of Bush and the congressional leadership to move more tax cuts or unpopular policies through on a strictly one-party basis will be over.

Their ability to squander more US dollars in illegal wars, millionaire taxcuts, and crony political patronage will be truly over as they slowly but surely turn the US dollar into confetti. Hold off on buying that wallpaper. All the trillions is US public and private debt can only be repaid by inflating and devaluing the currency.

Bush tells us that the SS Trust fund is just paper, so is the US dollar, and US gov't debt. 

I don't accept 'premises', I accept solid evidence that those premises are based in reality. To argue that Bush II tax cuts actually increased revenues would require showing that the budget deficit would have been worse without them. Good luck with that.

Point to any independent (i.e. not Cato/Club for Growth) study that shows the effect you claim and we can talk. Perhaps over on the Economist's sites. Max, Brad, Mark & PGL (and the large number of professional economists (which doesn't include me) that post there) will be very interesting in viewing and critiquing your evidence and arguments.

Supply side is a fantasy. Reagan economic growth came after Reagan tax increases in 1983. The early wind in the Clinton economic sales came from Bush I's tax increases. The Clinton Tax increase led to the actual elimination of the deficit. Or so I claim on every bit the solid evidence that you are presenting here.

The rather odd habit of crediting tax cuts that happened before tax increases that were immediately followed by growth for that very growth is not particularly convincing. "Post hoc ergo propter hoc" is bad logic anyway. "Post hoc ergo propter hoc" (and just ignore the intervening "hoc") barely passes the laugh test.

I have seen no compelling evidence that Bush I's immediate assessment of Supply Side "Voodoo Economics" wasn't exactly on the money. Show me those "documented results". And don't forget to identify who commissioned and produced the "documents".

You're absolutely right that the fight over Alito is over and we need to move on . . . I just wish someone had tried to defeat him.

Oh well, what can we fail at next?

I would take (R) weasle words on this with a grain of salt.If it does go down, that would be a MAJOR change, that is for sure, but recent history has shown us a lot of these cloase calls, and inevitably they favor party unity over America.

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