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China, Africa & the U.S.: Something Old, Something New

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Pliny once wrote `Out of Africa, always something new'.  Growing Chinese involvement in the continent - especially its  rich petro-sector -- raises all sorts of geo-political concerns driven by developments old and new.  The `old' is the robust appetite of rising world powers for political influence and secure access to  overseas  oil. The `new' is the way China is playing its Africa cards. Kind of a soft power - hardball power one-two punch.  What follows next?

In the realpolitik mode of great powers China has just done an interesting oil deal, simultaneously linking the Peoples Republic of China with the continent's two largest powerhouses - Nigeria and South Africa. China's Cnoc will lift the oil in Nigeria, via a consortium that also includes South African Petroleum Co. giving the PRC access to what could be 175,000 barrels a day by 2008.


On the softer, more diplomatic side of things the PRC government recently issued a new white paper setting out its overall views on relations with Africa. The paper includes everything but the kitchen sink, with sections on foreign aid, Third World solidarity and `people-to-people' exchanges, as well as traditional commercial and political interests.  "By this African Policy Paper the Chinese government wishes to present to the world the objectives of China's policy toward Africa, and the measures to achieve them...with a view to promoting the steady growth of China-Africa relations in the long term and bringing the mutually beneficial cooperation to a new stage. "


On the oil side, full steam ahead. China has a voracious appetite for imported natural resources. Its nearly 10%  annual economic growth rate in a population of 1.2 billion means big appetites. Significantly dependent on imported oil, China has targeted Africa as a source to meet their surging needs. About a quarter of their imports already comes from the continent.  The new PRC-South Africa-Nigeria arrangement is a part of this strategy. It is a  $2.27 billion deal that gives state-controlled Cnoc a 45% stake in a large off-shore oil field,  and involves South African Petroleum Company.


The PRC now seems to be vacillating between 2 kinds of natural resource strategies. On the one hand is their old-style Maoist Third Worldism, with lots of rhetorical flourishes about the  unity of developing counties and their freedom to choose their own paths,  free  from externally-imposed  political conditionalities;  then there is the Eastern cowboy capitalism of get-the- resources-at-any-cost, regardless of local political problems. The latter strategy dominates, as Beijing  pursues an outmoded  and ultimately unsustainable strategy of making nice with the dictators in key resource-rich  African countries like Angola,  Sudan and Zimbabwe, while turning a blind eye to local abuses.


On the American side,  there's been a  flurry of activity and pronouncements, including a recent report by the Council on Foreign Relations drawing attention to the PRC's muscular regional oil strategy and urging a robust U.S. response (and provoking multiple postings on the  America Abroad blog); Congressional hearings on China's influence in Africa (see my testimony on the Africa Sub-Committee's web site);  the U.S. Assistant Secretary for Africa traveled to Beijing last month; and  loud Congressional complaints effectively blocked the PRC's  bid to buy American oil giant Unocal.


In light of all these recent developments, the administration once again faces opportunities for muddy thinking and poor policies. The risk is that Washington will respond to domestic hard-line political interests seeking to demonize China and thereby provide a post-Cold War replacement for the Soviet Union, or will  pursue another ready-fire-aim strategy that will forego diplomatic opportunities to influence other world actors. Alternatively, Washington can pursue positive-sum diplomacy with the PRC, the Africans and Europe to advance everybody's interests.


It isn't clear which way China's petro-strategy will go - propping up dictators or promoting development, but it is a critical subject for China-hands and Africa-watchers alike. The answer may depend in part on what the U.S. does. Washington should press Beijing to be a better world citizen in Africa and elsewhere. Administration officials should meet regularly with the Chinese leadership to discuss the benefits of a more enlightened petro-policy, and the costs of clinging to dictators. Getting the Africans involved in this conversation would also be advantageous (especially Abuja and Pretoria), as well as the Europeans, since the French and the British certainly have their own long (and checkered) histories in African oil fields. A more enlightened China resource policy would smooth relations not just with Africa, but also Latin America and other parts of Asia too.


Bottom line - we should urge the Middle Kingdom to move forward into the modern world of  greater transparency and commitment to international development. This won't be easy for Beijing, given its own record at home.  But should Washington decide to pursue this kind of enlightened petro-diplomacy, it needs to keep in mind that only recently and belatedly has the Bush administration accepted `democracy promotion' as a central rhetorical pillar of its own foreign policy. Out of  America, let's see something new - the recognition that international relations can bring us win-win outcomes, and we can achieve them through careful and mutually respectful diplomacy.


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China has both a state and a quasi-corporate entity involved in Sudan. It's worth noting that the most important organization is the Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company, with the major players being China, Malaysia, and India. The Indian investments were made after European interests pulled out over human rights concerned.


There are also French operations, and infrastructure (e.g., railroads and telecommunications from Germany and Italy).

Is a South and East Asian bloc establishing East Africa as an area of influence?

ERNEST:
 
The modernization of Africa is something which has been on the horizon for more than two centuries.  It is fairly surprising that more was not done on that continent during the 20<sup>th</sup&gt century with regard to industrialization.  I think you are accurate in your assessment that the Chinese see a great avenue of opportunity.  Furthermore, I have been persistently opining that I believe the true goal of the United States in the Iraq War is NOT fighting terrorists, but rather, it is to ensure the U.S. has a secure path to Middle Eastern oil in light of China’s rising clout.
 
I would caution you on placing too much emphasis on diplomatic conversations with China.  As we have seen on a number of fronts, the Chinese are not particularly interested in what the U.S. has to say with regard to their internal policies.  Their human rights record, monetary policy, and trade policy all indicate their unwillingness to conform to U.S. demands.  As the competition for oil acquisition gets under way in earnest between the U.S. and China, it will indeed be very interesting to see what policy the U.S. adopts toward Africa.  I find it hard to believe that we will simply acquiesce to China—thus expanding that nation’s sphere of influence even further west.  Although I am not a hawk by any means, it is looking more and more as if some sort of large-scale confrontation with China is inevitable.

China is pursuing exactly Mao's (and Zhou's) strategy in international relations -- a hard nosed realism founded on the principle of not interfering in the internal affairs of other sovereign countries, especially those willing to do business with China.  Maoist China did, afterall, join the United States in supporting Pol Pot after Vietnam invaded Kampuchea.  And Maoist China had good relations with the Shah's Iran, Pakistan, Zambia, Tanzania, and (of all things) Communist Albania.

It was Mao and Zhou, after all, who decided to pursue good relations with Nixon once Nixon finally saw domestic political advantage in doing business with China.  Heck, Mao was so not averse to doing business with abusers of human rights that he sat down with Henry Kissinger. 

Through all the reforms since 1978 and all the CCP internal policy disagreements about relaxing state control over society and the economy, the CCP has pretty much pursued the same foreign policy.  What has changed is that the rest of the world (once led by the United States) is not  trying to isolate and boycott China, so China's opportunities for trade and cordial relations are much greater than in Mao's day.

But it was Mao and Zhou who set China on that course.

And, finally, the notion that the bungling foolish shoot-itself-in-the-foot United States has anything to teach the Chinese about foreign relations -- economic, human rights, or otherwise -- is laughable.

A fascinating post: China's recent revival of interest in African affairs isn't really new: but something I hadn't thought much about - since, like most American, I suppose, I only read/see/hear about Africa in the context of wars, disasters, genocides, etc. I am just curious, though as to your comment about "the cost of clinging to dictators". So far (and as far back as I can recall) Beijing has paid fairly little "cost" for their policy of dealing with African governments on a strictly- business basis (well, with a little military aid thrown in as well: I don't know how much of that is still going on) - why is their policy of dealing with dictators over oil deals "outmoded and unsustainable"? In countries like "Angola, Sudan and Zimbabwe" wouldn't local kleptocratic regimes, if tossed out, most likely be replaced merely by another set of kleptocrats? Few of whom, it seems likely, would want to derail their Chinese gravy train: especially since resource extraction still (sadly) remains the mainstay of all too many African economies. I am just wondering what you think the "cost" to the PRC might be for, say, dealing with Robert Mugabe's government - even post-Mugabe? Angola, frex, war-torn as it has been, has still kept its oil flowing come-hell-or-high-water for decades: why would the same principle not apply to CNOC's oil, same as Chevron's/Shell's?

I am very interested in the way that the Chinese quest for energy resources plays out in Africa. Certainly, it involves the U.S. and how competition for these resources will influence foreign policy. There is however another factor that I am interested in, and that is India. For years India has been committing military support, and creating an economic trade of $9bn annum with African nations (the oil rich Nigeria included). India is fast adopting an urban industrial lifestyle. With a thriving population and a growing need for the same oil and natural gas resources that are up for grabs. Is it possible that a conflict will develop between India and China?

In Sudan, when a Canadian firm pulled out of the Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company (GNPOC), the Indian national petroleum firm took its place. China built the pipeline from Bentiu to Port Sudan, but an Indian firm did the optical fiber communications system alongside it.
So far, they seem to be playing together, but they each have individual efforts.

Note that GNPOC's third major partner is Malaysia. One possibility is that we may see more Asian bloc cooperation, rather than China operating independently. India, Pakistan, and Iran are observers in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the full members of which are China, Russia, and several of the fUSSR Central Asian Republics.

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