"Even if democracy were achieved in the Middle East, what kind of governments would it produce? Would they cooperate with the United States on important policy objectives besides curbing terrorism, such as advancing the Arab-Israeli peace process, maintaining security in the Persian Gulf, and ensuring steady supplies of oil? No one can predict the course a new democracy will take, but based on public opinion surveys and recent elections in the Arab world, the advent of democracy there seems likely to produce new Islamist governments that would be much less willing to cooperate with the United States than are the current authoritarian rulers."

F. Gregory Gause, Foreign Affairs, September/October 2005

He sounds rather prescient today, eh?

Let me be the first to be damned for saying: good for Hamas.  This victory was a great step forward for Palestine. 

Fatah was a disaster for Palestine, it had become incredibly corrupt.

Fatah was a disaster for both Palestine and Israel, it could not excercise power in Palestine and could not offer any meaningful concessions to Israel anyway, since it did not control the Palestinian streets. 

Fatah was a disaster for international relations with Palestine.  The US and Europe were dumping money and resources down the bottomless well of supporting a corrupt party (the US spent $2 million oh Fatah propaganda in this election).  Now, perhaps that money can go to improving life in Palestine, and thus reduce the extremism that hopelessness breeds.

Fatah was a disaster for Fatah.  Now, without any power left to cling to (and perhaps no place in government at all), it can abandon its corrupt ways.  Fatah must reform itself and offer Palestine a secular way forward, or it will wither and die.

Predictions:  

1) The US and Israel will claim there is "no partner for peace."  Big Change.

2) Israel will respond to any Hamas offers of truce or talks with assassinations.  Big Change.

3) The US will use extremism in Palestine to back off from any deal that Israel doesn't fully support.  Big Change.

4) Instead of using Hamas to undermine Fatah, Israel will use Fatah to undermine Hamas.  This actually is a big change.  And so, let me be the first to congratulate Marwan Barghouti on his upcoming freedom.   

I'll start by saying I am totally stunned by the result. I think I agree, though - it's really important for everyone to calm down and force Hamas to deal with the fact that they are no longer in the luxurious position of heckling from the outside. Anything that helps Hamas out with that dilemma right now is probably a bad thing (i.e., don't help them decide what to do themselves by declaring full-blown opposition, and on the other hand don't help them decide what to do by saying for certain that funds to the PA will be kept going no matter what).




Sometimes to achieve dramatic breakthroughs, it is necessary for everything to balance on a knife's edge. I have no real reason to believe this, but I actually think there's a small chance that this will be just the kind of shake-up needed to force the two sides of the Arab-Israeli conflict to final settlements...

You don't have to be a writer in Foreign Affairs to know this stuff.

You just have to be well-informed. 

With our blessing, Israel turn the lives of the Palestinians to hell and now -- SURPRISE!

I would comment more, but I am in 100% agreement with weasel.

By the way, Palestinians counted their votes in one day, Iraqis needed more than a month.  USA seems a tab deficient as a midwife of democracy.  (Related news: NYT describes some details how Kurdistan is run as a police state, cmplete with its own secret police.  This is the most democratic part of Iraq.  Hmph.) 

I have a Christian PAL friend, several in fact, but this one fella I spoke with on Sunday about the WaPo article on USAID funding Fatah's campaign.  Not news to him.  "Did you know that the concrete supplier for the Wall is Fatah, receiving bonus monies to furnish redi-mix to the Israelis"

Whne Bush blustered, Hamas's response was classic:

Hamas's rejoinder is great.

We don't have time to negotiate and why should we? We just get screwed. If Israel concedes something up front, maybe we will talk ...Until then, we're cleaning up corruption

Just like Bush wanted!

Better be careful what you pray for..Allah might just give it to you

Wait, bullshit, what evidence could you possibly have indicating something nefarious about European funding? Are you saying all the money they"re putting forth to develop civil society organizations is insufficitn?  Or how about the Germans digging wells in Afghanistan for thirsty villages?  I mean I sound like a rightwing drone.  But this is ridiculous.  I've not seen any evidence at all indicating that Europeans of any kind were paying to have Jews blown up.  They may have been directing money to the Territories, but I would give you one thousand dollars if you could prove in court that any European was giving money with anything other than the intentionof supporting life in a very hard-up place.  Funny how the idea of giving money to a bankrupt people counts as a heinous offense.

Beyondo98,

I didn't mean that at all. I was just pointing out that European Union, more than the US, has to face today a very difficult dilemma : Hamas is on the EU list of terrorist organisations, and EU is the largest aid donor to the Palestinian Authority. So I guess EU will have to work out how to maintain this funding while avoiding any contact with a banned terrorist organization.

So...

Given the opportunity to overthrow a corrupt, incompetent and hypocritical regime, John Kerry's electoral appeal ranked well below that of suicide bombers.

Yeah, that's about right. 

How do you like your democracy now, Mr. Bush?
Hamas' stunning victory underlines the contradictions and hypocrisies in Bush's Mideast policies.
By Juan Cole

Can it be terrorism now that it is the will of the people and an instrument of state power?

If so what is shock and awe?

And guess who'll be blamed by the public opinions in the European nations!

<span class="t13">[Israeli] Finance Ministry Director General Yossi Bachar said at the [Davos] conference Friday
That Israel may stop transferring funds to the Palestinians after Hamas won this week's
election.

"We will face practical problems of how you deal with people that call for the destruction of Israel," Bachar, said. "If they want to continue to work with us, they will have to find a solution, otherwise I can't see how they would get the money," he added.

Bachar said that the PA budget is based on customs and value-added tax revenue which Israel collects on behalf of the Palestinians and aid from Saudi Arabia.

World Bank special envoy James Wolfensohn, who coordinates between the PA and countries giving it financial aid said Friday he believed the countries would terminate aid to the PA following Hamas' victory, due to the "lack of certainty and hope." He said the problem would present itself severely already next week when the PA won't have money to pay its employees' salaries.</span&gt

Unfortunately, HAMA will not have to follow the checks and balances of a constitutional republic.....wait.....neither does Bush and the right wing.

The amusing thing is I just read an article last night about how the Israelis SUPPORTED Hamas in the early days of its formation because they thought it would drive a wedge against Fatah,

Can you say, "BLOWBACK?"

I knew you could. But it's worse than that. The term "blowback" is itself a cover for the reality.

This is perfectly comparable with the US's support of the Islamists in Afghanistan and our support of Saddam Hussein against the Iranians in the 1980's.

As well as comparable to the CIA's handing the plans for a nuclear weapons trigger to the Iranians under the cover story that "well, it has a flaw in it to set back their program."

The essence of the state is ALWAYS: You do exactly what we tell you and give us everything you have, and we'll protect you from the bad people inside and outside our borders - and if there aren't any bad people, we'll make some."

Now Israel is crying crocodile tears about Hamas. They LOVE Hamas! It's their perfect excuse to engage in ethnic cleansing!

9/11 was a GOD-SEND to Bush and the neocons - which is the number one reason to believe it was not as simple a terrorist act as they want to make it appear.