It seems to me that an unspoken strategy, maybe even unconscious, is simply to wear down and outlast the Palestinians. The government satisfies the public with retaliation after terror attacks, and allows a creeping squeeze play through the settlements. If life in the territories stays dismal for long enough, able Palestinians simply emigrate, leaving behind the weak and demoralized.

The problem with this is that it leaves behind a damaging legacy in Israel's soul. They become exactly as venal and selfish as most other nations. They may have won, but at what cost?

What Jdledel said. Moreover, despite this illusion of security -- clearly this is not real security but some kind of a temporary marshal law situation -- the inflow of immigrants (which really is the raison d'etre of this state) is, if I am not mistaken, at all time low, or close to it. With some of the Russians moving back, I am not even even sure it's still positive. Far from winning anything, Israel is a failed experiment, a pariah state fucked-up beyond all repair, that seems rather obvious.

Far from winning anything, Israel is a failed experiment, a pariah state fucked-up beyond all repair, that seems rather obvious.

I dunno, what seems obvious to me is that compared to the rest of the region, it seems to be doing alright.  I don't know what the demographics of Israel look like.  It may very well be that like many other countries, birthrates are low enough that it will face long term population decline.

But Japan is already in that position, with Italy and other European countries soon to follow.  I don't know if one can realistically call these countries "fucked up beyond all repair." 

like many bloggers I've come to feel that discretion is the better part of valor when it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict




That's because correcting all the nonsense that gets spewed every time there's a thread about Israel can get tedious real fast and depressing to boot.




What Israel has "won" is a respite from Palestinian terrorism and a chance to get on with life. It may be victory of a sort, but it is certainly a hollow, narrow victory. The dream of many if not most Israelis, of being accepted as any nation is accepted and of putting the conflict behind them is still far from being realized.




Israel remains under mortal threat from an Iran run by a nuclear lunatic sworn to its destruction and an Arab world teetering on the brink of a dramatic shift towards Islamist government. Wait until there's an Islamist coup in Egypt or Jordan and we'll see how much of a "victory" Israel has.




It's hard to see the situation in Israel now as anything but a momentary, tactical victory over one specific threat: Palestinian terrorism. But the Palestinians aren't going to disappear (in fact they breed like rabbits). Their chaotic society might one day pull itself together. They might one day get a leader who unifies them and isn't a corrupt incompetent. They might yet succeed in smuggling in heavy weapons.




I don't think most Israelis are quite ready to declare a real victory just yet.

I could say more on this, but like many bloggers I've come to feel that discretion is the better part of valor when it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Not to put words in Matthew's mouth, but it's precisely this type of response--the extremists are those who laugh at Palestinian distress, not those who apologize for and excuse Palestinian terrorist attacks and attacks on civilian areas--that makes it a thankless job to try to have a debate on the issue.

But to address your points:

Current Israeli policy is in three parts:

• to colonise and wall in the West Bank Palestinians;

• use their military advantages - and influence in the US - to prevent arab/islamic countries becoming sufficiently militarily powerful to challenge them (cf Iran);

• to rely on European inaction (since Europe has the power to impose political obligations on Israel via trade conditionality).

So the second two points actually weigh against your original point about whether Israel needs an accomodation or can survive on just muddling through: the Palestinians in particular and Arabs in general are currently unable to do anything significant militarily against Israel (cf. Iran: there's a reason they want nukes) and there's unlikely to be significant Western economic pressure brought to bear.  And the first point, about the physical separation of Israel from the Palestinians, is belied by the relative success thus far of the barrier in reducing attacks within Israel.

Finally, one of the biggest disconnects in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is between the rhetorical descriptions and the proverbial "facts on the ground." The "facts on the ground," i.e. the separation of Israel and the PA-controlled territory, can eventually lead to a de facto accommodation accepted internationally.  It's already happening, without active Palestinian involvement.

Given the regular slaughter of Isreali children by the Palestinians my guess is that being more secure will leave the Israeli soul intact.

For 50 years the Palestinians could have had a state and they chose murder instead.  It is shame that their supporters in America did not point this out.

The Israeli economy and stock market is booming.  Suggesting something less than a failed state.  It seem increasingly that Isrealis just don't care about the Palestinians. They will get out of more settlements build their wall and let Fatah and Hamas kill each other.

If you live in the United Staes, when are you leaving your settlement?

Brad

Do you believe that the Palestinians can sustain the fight with Israel by themselves?  In the past they have received support from the Soviet Union and more recently from Saddem and Assad.  Saddem is gone and Assad has to worry about his occupation of Lebanon.  

Also what about the oil states looking to diversify their economies? They do not care about the Palestinians, who I believe cannot become citizens in their countries, but they may want a piece of Israel's hightech industries.

I hope you do say more, Matt. The odd thing is that I have a feeling this is a point that the two warring sides in the argument can come together on. The Palestinian side can admit it lost, and the Israeli side can admit what it had to do to win, and a shaky common ground can begin to form...

The market and the economy are doing very well.  It is one of the things that drives the Arab nations nuts.

Wasn't it pretty much a foregone conclusion by some point in the 1990s, if not earlier, that a two-state solution was something like inevitable?

I'm amazed. If Israel won, we also won in Iraq. So, lets remove our troops and get on with our lives too.

Victory should never have been the goal in Israel for either side. The goal should have been a negotiated peace that satisfies both sides enough to stop the killing on both sides. That hasn't happened. The Palestinians are without an effective leader, minus much in the way of support by other countries, and apparently demoralized. But, Israel is also now without an effective leader, minus much in the way of support by other countries, and all set up for demoralization. Isn't the real situation one of a lull as both sides decide what to do next?

Do you believe that the Palestinians can sustain the fight with Israel by themselves? In the past they have received support from the Soviet Union and more recently from Saddem and Assad. Saddem is gone and Assad has to worry about his occupation of Lebanon.




The Palestinians have plenty of support, from the EU, from the Gulf Arabs and that's just financial support. They are still a cause celebre of the international left.




Also what about the oil states looking to diversify their economies? They do not care about the Palestinians, who I believe cannot become citizens in their countries, but they may want a piece of Israel's hightech industries.




I would say with oil at $60, diversifying their economies has just moved down a rung or two in priority. Maybe there will be some contact with Israel at the margins, but these countries are all afraid of their Islamist radicals and still rely on bashing Israel to gain legitimacy.

So purple state, if the arabs start killing each other, naturally it will be the fault of Israel. A rule of thumb for the left is that non-white, non-western peoples are NEVER to be held responsible for their own actions, and America and Israel are the source of all evil in the world.  Well I have news for you, America and Israel are not the source of the world's ills, and the problems of the arab-islamic world are of their own making.

jdlebell claims "They may be able to unilaterally set borders and build a wall on it but it will NOT stop the Palestinians in their fight for what they believe is a JUST and FAIR division of the land. For Israel to keep all of Jerusalem and the surrounding major settlements will NOT be accepted by the Palestinians.".

 But that's not what all of them want. The idea held by a large number of Palestinians, every one of them that supports Hamas and Islamic Jihad, is that the only fair division of land is the elimination of Israel. They want the complete elimination of it and the death or expulsion of all the Jews who live there. Can you actually deny that this is the goal of those two powerful groups? Until the goals of these two significant factions of the Palestinian populace are renounced for good and all how can you expect the Israelis to believe that there can be a real peace?

Hi SoCal,

OK, since I said 'failed state' without qualifications you are entitled to bring up the GDP, even though  it obviously wasn't the point.

However: is $19,500 a lot? I don't know.

Is $19,500 enough to keep millions of colonists from the US and Europe in Israel - and attract more of them?  Is it enough to keep them happy and provide everyone else with a decent standard of living? Maybe not: http://www.globalpolicy.org/socecon/inequal/2003/1101israel.htm

Israel's biggest failure is this:

GDP West Bank: $800 per capita

GDP Gaza: $600 per captia

(Source: CIA World Factbook)

When Israel gets the GDP of all the people under its control up to $19,000 or so, it will be an astounding success, worthy of everyone's admiration. Until then, it has problems.

There is at least some confusion in the collective Israeli soul, since a non-trivial number of Israelis oppose current policy, and many American Jews participated in Not In My Name anti-war protests.

I'm definitely in the confused camp, myself. If history had been different, and Palestinians had accepted the Jewish influx pre-1948 as invigorating instead of diluting their society we'd all be happier. But consider that resistance to immigration, on the grounds of cultural dilution, has a lot of traction in our Southwest. If Palestinians should have gracefully allowed the transformation of their society into a Jewish state, a similar view should have us gracefully accepting the Latinization of our border states.

My point is that this has nothing to do with 'the surrounding economies'. A cardiologist or dentist from Moscow does not choose between Israel and Syria, he chooses between Israel and Russian Federation (or between Israel and the US, in case he has a chance to get there).

Israel was clearly preferable to the Russian Federation in 1993, but it's not so obvious in 2006 anymore.

Since Japan and Italy are not surrounded by people trying to murder them I agree that birth rates in anyother country are not at issue.  Israel having absorbed the Jews expelled from the Arab world and refugees from the former Soviet Union they are still working to assimilate all these new people.  It was Labor's failure that helped fuel Likud's rise.

If as the articles, as well as those in the Times and Salon are right that Israel has won, at least this round, then as Israel's economy continues to grow it will likely see its population act like most of the rest of the Western World.

The one group in Israel that is producing most of children are the Orthodox.  Often, they are the biggest supporters of the settlements.

By the way, I don't know the GDP of the Ninth Ward in New Orleans--but that's a failure of our own country. As a liberal, I just wanted to make sure I attacked the US as well as Israel. As LEL said above, we always blame the US and Israel for everything. Wouldn't want to disappoint . . .

Not many governments in the world (if any) post WWII have been doing anything as wicked as what Israeli government has been doing in Palestine

As much as I agree that Israeli policies in Palestine have been horrendous, I think this statement is unfair. There have been plenty of monstrous acts committed by plenty of governments since WWII. Israel is hardly among the leaders. Also, the idea that either Palestinians or Israelis are "wicked" really bothers me. I firmly believe that both sides are basically good--with legitimate hopes and aspirations. Unfortunately, a great deal of bad blood has made it hard for either side to recognize the basic goodness of the other side. And that is what leads to ongoing violence.

Israelis are not wicked, but most of their leader have been militant extremists. And I can't think of another country holding millions of people under military occupation for almost 4 decades. That's just not done anymore.

Although I have to say that the Israelis are not just a bunch of random people who happened to be living in Israel. Because of peculiar immigration laws (and, obviously, the nature of the state itself), there is an excessive number of strong nationalists there. That's a big problem too, of course.

You're certainly not the only one to cite that poll to back up his views.

 But the head of the European Union was embarrassed, apologized and blamed the results on bias which he said should be condemned.  The Italian president said the question that lead to that result was misleading.

 Israel gets apology for peace-threat poll

 Having said that, a trip to the region quickly reveals which is the least "obviously failed state" in the neighborhood.

 Again, you should go and see for yourself.

It's hated by everyone in the neighborhood, that's why it's failed.

 Peace treaties with two important neighbors, and trade relations with a growing part of the Arab league, including most Gulf States. 

 Besides, what it takes to be beloved in that neighborhood is not necessarily a good thing.

It would be great if it had $9K GDP instead of $19K and was admired by everyone in the neighborhood.

 No one in the region "admires" any one else, if you haven't noticed.  They all bitch about their own governments and their neighbors, when they aren't bitching about America and Israel.

If you could drive from Haifa to Damascus, from Eilat to Cairo, from Tel-Aviv to Amman -- and see smiles all the way as people notice your Israeli license plates -- then it wouldn't have been a failed state.

Yeah, so "not a failed state" equals perfect relations.  Ok. Middle East has to be like Europe, or else Israel has failed.  Gotcha. Fine. 50 years ago Europe was at eachother's throats.  The Balkans are still fucked up and you can't go everywhere with any license plate and get smiled at.  The current Middle East situation is comparitviely new.

Instead you're sitting there in your little ghetto behind your 'security barriers', with barbed wire all around, having to get thru airport-style security check just to eneter a shopping mall.

 I was just there a few months ago - both to Israel and Egypt - and I didn't see any security, let alone an "airport-style security check" at the shopping mall I went to in Tel Aviv, but I know there are security guards at many malls. I, and everyone else, just walked right in. But I did see armed guards at several Cairo hotels and shopping malls.

Again, you should go, and see for yourself.

 And my experience at Ben Gurion airport, entering and leaving, was almost identical to that at Dulles.  And I flew back to America next to a Muslim Israeli family who answered the same questions I did in the security line.

 But never mind.  You clearly aren't interested in going to see for yourself.  No big deal.

Well, I guess they just felt like interrogating specifically me at Ben Gurion for 2 hours when I was there, asking all kinds of totally inappropriate questions and then repeating the same session again - just to check if I remember the answers. Oh, well.

So you have been there, then? 

 Maybe, somehow, the airport security folks detected your incredible amount of contempt for the place.

I've never been to Gaza.

I have been to parts of the West Bank - to East Jerusalem (Abu Dis), Bethlehem and Jericho.