New Polling Data on Palestinian Elections
The majority of the Palestinians expect the upcoming PLC elections to be honest (52.7%) while 39.9% expect the elections to be dishonest.
With regards to the Palestinian figure trusted most by the Palestinian public, Mahmoud Abbas “Abu Mazen” remains the top figure with a ratio of 15.5% compared with 24.8% in May 2005. Marwan Barghouthi got the second ranking with a ratio of 7.8%. Mahmoud Zahhar and Mohammed Dahlan got the third rank with a ratio of 5.8% each. A considerable ratio of 31.1% of Palestinians continues not to trust any figure.
Abu Mazen remains the leading candidate, although his numbers are clearly dropping. There is a disturbing statistic regarding fundamentalism versus secularism: 46% of the Palestinians said they would choose fundamentalist trends over 37.5 who would choose secular ones.
However, quite importantly, there is a rising number who are expressing optimism in the peace process--68% are optimistic versus 59.3% a year ago. The question, remains, of course, what will Israel and the U.S. do to increase and encourage this optimism....
When asked about the performance of Abu Mazen as President of the PNA, the majority of Palestinians (50.3%) ranked his performance as average while 28.7% said his performance is good compared with 23.8% last May. However, when asked if Abu Mazen succeeded in achieving his election campaign programs on enforcing order and the rule of the law, the higher ratio of (44.8%) said he succeeded to a certain extent while (30.9%) said he succeeded to a low extent and 13.9% said he didn’t succeed at all.
With regards to the Palestinian figure trusted most by the Palestinian public, Abu Mazen remains the top figure with a ratio of 15.5% compared with 24.8% in May 2005. Marwan Barghouthi got the second ranking with a ratio of 7.8%. Mahmoud Zahhar and Mohammed Dahlan got the third rank with a ratio of 5.8% each. A considerable ratio of 31.1% of Palestinians continues not to trust any figure.
A considerable ratio of Palestinians (45.1%) believe that the economic conditions since Abu Mazen became President of the PNA has not changed and a ratio of 30.8% of Palestinians said the economic conditions got worse during the same period.
A significant majority of Palestinians (73.1%) believe that the decision to participate in the upcoming PLC elections is a positive step and (61.3%) believe that if Hamas becomes part of the PLC, it will abide by the decisions taken by the majority of the PLC members.
The poll shows that a ratio of 40.2% of the Palestinians believe the third party or path along side Fatah and Hamas must be from independent figures while 26.4% say there is no need for a third party.
With regards to the political situation of the Palestinian people since Abu Mazen assumed office, a ratio of 50.5% said the situation remained the same while those who believe the situation got worse rose from 13.1% in May 2005 to 22.2% this December.
On the reasons for the recent increase in security chaos incidents, a ratio of 41.5% say the poor performance of the PA and its security services is the main reason while 33.1% say the reason is because some groups exploit the political situation to evade the law and order.
In a JMCC open ended trend question about the Palestinian figure they trust most, Mahmoud Abbas got the highest level of support (15.5%) among Palestinians which shows a slight decline when compared with (24.8%) in May 2005 and with (26.2%) in December 2004. Marwan Barghouthi maintained the second rank with (7.8%). Mahmoud Zahhar came in third place with (5.8%). Mohammed Dahlan also got 5.8% in general but received 13.9% in Gaza Strip. The highest ratio (31.1%) of Palestinians continues showing no trust in any figure.
The Poll results show that Fatah maintained a steady level of popularity (38.9%) compared with 36.1% last May. The Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas, continues to be the second force in terms of popularity among Palestinians (18.5%) compared with (19.8%) last May.
Performance of the Executive and Legislative Authorities:When asked to assess the level of progress or retreat in the reform process in various fields, reform in the civil service system achieved the best results with a ratio of 44.0% saying it witnessed progress while 31.8% said no change has happened in this field. Reform in the security service system got the lowest points as 35.9% said it witnessed retreat and 33.4% said there has been no change in this area. Rule of the law showed almost same results: a ratio of 38.0% said they witnessed no change in this area while 36.4% said this area witnessed retreat.
According to the JMCC poll 55.1% of Palestinians support a 2-state solution.
If Hamas were to make significant gains on the January 25 election, that clear majority could erode. These numbers are more evidence that that U.S.--and of course, Israel--can't afford to let things slide between Israel and the Palestinians as the Palestinians and the Israelis are both preoccupied with their elections and the U.S. is preoccupied with Iraq.


I wouldn't necessarily call it "disturbing" but political Islam is definitely on the march throughout the ME.
Hamas won big in the local elections receiving an astounding seventy three percent of the vote in Nablus.
And of the potenial polities in the region, it has been widely thought that the Palestinians were the most secular.
December 17, 2005 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
The question, remains, of course, what will Israel and the U.S. do to increase and encourage this optimism....
One would think the Arab League member nations have intests in a stable and optimistic emerging Palestine as well. The Arab League could do wonders for the confidence of the Israeli electorate -- and inspire a turnout for candidates who stand for active Israeli recnociliation and cooperation with an emerging Palestine -- by pushing for recognition and normalization with Israel among all of its member nations, aiding the development of a Palestinian civil infrastructure, and generally taking their fair share of responsibility for a productive peace process. That they don't should tell us something about the cynical state of leadership in the Arab establishment.
December 18, 2005 5:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Arab League could do wonders for the confidence of the Israeli electorate -- and inspire a turnout for candidates who stand for active Israeli recnociliation and cooperation with an emerging Palestine -- by pushing for recognition and normalization with Israel among all of its member nations, aiding the development of a Palestinian civil infrastructure, and generally taking their fair share of responsibility for a productive peace process.
The degree to which Israel's friends will go to deflect responsibility never ceases to amaze me. At any rate...
In 2002, the Arab League proposed full recognition of, and normalized relations with, Israel in exchange for Israel withdrawing to the 1967 borders. Israel refused the offer out of hand. So much for that irresponsible Arab League.
December 18, 2005 6:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Meanwhile, back at TPMCafe, it still only matters what Israel and the US do.
Nevertheless, the plot thickens....
December 18, 2005 6:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
In 2002, the Arab League proposed full recognition of, and normalized relations with, Israel in exchange for Israel withdrawing to the 1967 borders. Israel refused the offer out of hand.
Israel clearly did not "refuse the offer out of hand." The Guardian reported at the time [emphases mine]:
December 18, 2005 6:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
A) Isreal certainly did reject the offer out of hand. There were no attempts at further negotiation from Israel. The term used to describe the plan by Israel at the time was "non-starter," which is about as out of hand as you can get.
B) (and more importantly) Your original "contribution" was to somehow link Israel's lack of efforts at establishing peace in the region with some imagined failure of the Arab League to do the same. You've been given an example of the Arab League offering recognition and normalized relations, and Israel rejecting it -- within a day, with no follow up. So what does that make of your original post, except noise designed to confuse the issue?
December 18, 2005 8:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Isreal certainly did reject the offer out of hand. There were no attempts at further negotiation from Israel. The term used to describe the plan by Israel at the time was "non-starter," which is about as out of hand as you can get.
I'm banging my head against a brick wall making this point, I realize, but what the hell. To imply, as you do, that the Arab League made an offer of peace to Israel in good faith and it is only the intrasigence of the Israeli government that is at fault here, is so totally ridiculous that it makes one's jaw drop.
For more than 40 years, the Arab League has been at the forefront of Arab attempts to delegitimize, stigmatize and demonize Israel. The "peace plan" that you think of so highly was in fact nothing but a cynical ploy by the Arabs to attempt to get the weight of world opinion off their shoulders as the Palestinian intifada exploded and get it back on to the shoulders of Israel. There were no specifics, no follow-up, not even any actual attempt to talk directly to Israel to propose it. As such, it was not taken seriously.
And this goes to the heart of what Israel's supporters find most objectionable about the way the conflict is always portrayed. In the current post, the author states that there is a degree of optimism about the peace process among Palestinians and implies that it is up to Israelis to nurture that optimism, presumably by offering concessions of one sort or another. But peace will not be built by Israel making this or that concession to appease Arab opinion. We know after decades of experience that it won't matter. What's needed is a change in Arab attitudes, and that won't come from anything Israel does. Sure, it makes no sense for Israel to be needlessly provocative. And the occasional goodwill gesture can't hurt. But these are marginal issues. They won't bring about the necessary sea change in Arab attitudes to peace. We are talking about a fanatical, obssessive hatred that has festered and grown over decades. It won't change overnight.
We will know such a change in attitudes has occured when Arabs directly engage Israel and treat it with respect. They need to speak directly to the majority of Israelis who want peace and would be willing to sacrifice to get it. Once that happens, once Arabs go right into the belly of the beast and appeal directly to the people, then we will know it is time to take Arab peace proposals seriously.
Remember the lesson of Sadat. In 1977, Sadat went to Jerusalem and spoke to the Knesset. He made a direct appeal to Israelis and their government that said that Egypt was ready for peace. In today's Arab world, not even the Egyptians are ready any more to speak directly to Israelis. Until that happens, until the Arabs make a concerted effort to convince Israel that they are serious about peace and that the conflict is over - that all they want is fairness and justice and they are ready to treat Israel like any other country in the reason - until that happens, Israel simply has no reason to take anything any Arab government says seriously.
December 18, 2005 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm banging my head against a brick wall making this point, I realize, but what the hell. To imply, as you do, that the Arab League made an offer of peace to Israel in good faith and it is only the intrasigence of the Israeli government that is at fault here, is so totally ridiculous that it makes one's jaw drop.
You're right -- you are banging your head against a brick wall. Because you aren't doing anything but pouring out a stream of nonsensical propaganda and rhetoric, backed by nothing more than your own contrary opinion about the Arab League. You start out by saying the Arab League needs to recognize Israel. When it was pointed out to you they offered to do that, and Israel refused the offer, you launch into a diatribe about how their offer has to be disingenuous, because they made it. Brilliant. And self-contained, too.
In this case, I think banging your head against the brick wall is neutral. It can't possibly do any further damage to you, and the bricks, I feel sure, won't feel a thing.
December 18, 2005 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
You start out by saying the Arab League needs to recognize Israel
No, I did not start out by saying the Arab League needs to recognize Israel. I said the Arab League needs to ENGAGE Israel. The two are entirely different concepts. Engaging means dialogue and trying to assure through words and deeds that one's intentions are not hostile. At the height of the cold war, for example, the US and USSR recognized each other. But the amount of engagement was pretty limited. As long as Arab media foment hatred against Jews and as long as they refuse to talk with the Israeli people, they simply can't be taken seriously as peacemakers.
Because you aren't doing anything but pouring out a stream of nonsensical propaganda and rhetoric, backed by nothing more than your own contrary opinion about the Arab League.
My post was anything but nonsensical. Even the most cursory glance at the history of the last 40 years will show how deep a role the Arab League has played in perpetuating the rejection of Israel that persists to this day.
Look, I know you're a confirmed Israel-hater. And like all haters, you will twist any statement and bend any argument to fit your preconceived notions. I won't budge your views one inch. But I hope that anyone else reading this exchange might get a better sense of the context of the current situation. They might hopefully understand that despite the best efforts of the media to portray the conflict as within Israel's ability to solve, the simple fact is that that is not the case. The best Israel can hope for under the present circumstances is a sustained period of non-belligerence. True peace can only come from a wholesale change in Arab attitudes.
December 18, 2005 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
...despite the best efforts of the media to portray the conflict as within Israel's ability to solve, the simple fact is that that is not the case.
The Zionist view of the requirements for peace is interesting to note.
Either of two things would end the dispute and lead to peace:
1 - The dismantlement of Zionism, and the creation of one state with majority rule and non-ethnic immigration or
2 - The retrenchment of Israel to an amount of Palestinian territory in line with the relative shares of the population.
Either one would quickly end the Israeli/Arab dispute.
Once you take both of these off of the table, then there is nothing Israel can do. But why exactly must we take both of these options off of the table?
Only if you start from a position of bigotry in favor of Jews do you ignore all solutions to the dispute that threaten the dominance of Jews as an ethnic group over the state of Israel, and say Arabs have to accept that dominance.
To call people who lack that bigotry Israel-haters is just projection.
December 18, 2005 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only if you start from a position of bigotry in favor of Jews do you ignore all solutions to the dispute that threaten the dominance of Jews as an ethnic group over the state of Israel, and say Arabs have to accept that dominance.
Ah, Arnold Evans - too bad I didn't have enough time to demolish your last bit of anti-Jewish sophistry.
Tell me, is it bigotry for the French state to favor French people? Is it bigotry for Japan to favor Japanese people? Only if you decide to call into question the entire concept of the nation-state, in which some people are citizens and others are not, would you answer yes to any of those questions. If you answer no, then you have to ask what makes Israel favoring Jews different from Germany favoring Germans? Why is the former "bigotry", with all the negative connotations that word implies, but the latter is not? Is it because Jews are spread all around the world, thus increasing the relevance of Zionism to many people? Maybe, but the Germans favor ethnic Germans who live all over the place as well, as do the Japanese. There are ethnic Germans in the Central Asian republics who went back to Germany and became citizens immediately, while Turkish families who have lived in Germany for four generations, or Korean families who have lived in Japan for an equal amount of time, are denied citizenship. Somehow this kind of "bigotry" does not seem to prick the conscience of the left. Only Jewish nationalism does.
Here's a newsflash for you Arnold: Zionism is no different from any other nationalism anywhere in the world. Every nation in the world has a history that at some point involves one people staking out a claim to the land to the exclusion of others. To say that of all the nationalisms around the world, Zionism is uniquely evil and deserves condemnation, is so patently ridiculous that such a thought can only be said to have its origins in anti-Semitism. No doubt you will protest such a label. No doubt you consider yourself a hell of an enlightened fair-minded guy. But you are anything but fair-minded here, for anything that holds Israel and/or Jews to a different standard than that to which all other countries in the world are held is - by definition - anti-Semitism.
In addition, what you say is not even logical. The Palestinians have never sketched out what peace would look like. They have never declared a vision for what would be in it for the Jews should they give in to their demands. They just make demands and then resort to terrorism when their demands aren't met.
If the Palestinians were serious about peace, they would have had a state of their own 70 years ago, when partition was first proposed. They could have had it 59 years ago, when the UN partition plan was announced. They could have had one in 1967, 1978, 1993, 2000, 2001 or any other time in fact if their leadership had done what Sadat did and sold the Israeli people on the idea they were serious about ending the conflict.
December 18, 2005 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it bigotry for the French state to favor French people?
Um, yes. Especially if "French" is defined as an ethnic group.
Is it bigotry for Japan to favor Japanese people?
Um, yes.
How is Israel favoring Jews different from Germany favoring Germans?
Driving away from their homes because they are of the wrong ethnic group? I'm it is not different if Israel does it than if Germany does it, but when Germany does it, it is universally understood that it is wrong.
Zionism is no different from any other nationalism anywhere in the world.
Here is the difference between Zionism and other nationalisms. There is a group of refugees today who are being denied the right to return to the place they were driven away from by force because of their ethnic group.
anything that holds Israel and/or Jews to a different standard than that to which all other countries in the world are held is - by definition - anti-Semitism.
Where is the different standard? Where are the people driven from Japan who want to return but cannot because it would upset Japan's ethnic political arrangement?
****
No. The bigotry is on your side. Any group of people that wants to stake a claim on land occupied by other people is practicing bigotry the way you are practicing bigotry. They are all wrong the way you are wrong.
"Everyone else is a bigot" is not only not true but would not be a defense if it was true. But it is an admission that on some level you understand that you are a bigot. And since you understand that I understand you grasping to call opponents of Zionism anti-Semitic, but it won't stick because there is no group that opponents of Zionism would support if that group staked a claim on land occupied by other people, removed them by force and refuses to readmit them because they are not in the same ethnic group.
The Palestinians are fighting against the bigotry of Zionists and the bigotry of Americans. Hopefully they will win.
I have not heard of a partition plan from Zionists that did not give Jews a substantially disproportionate amount of territory given their population.
Like any group of people Arabs of Palestine had the right not to make way for the Zionists the same way everyone else has the right not to leave their homes to make way for any other group.
December 18, 2005 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Every nation in the world has a history that at some point involves one people staking out a claim to the land to the exclusion of others.
The problem Brad is that there were already people living on that land of a different ethnicity and religion (the majority, in fact) who--understandably--did not want to accept their country being changed into a Jewish state. At some point, Israel needs to deal with this fact. It's not just that the Palestinians are monsters who hate Jews. They've been disenfranchised by the creation of the Jewish state and something needs to be done to provide them their own state or accept them into Israel as fully equal citizens. Unfortunately, as long as the conflict continues to fester, hatred and violence continue to grow.
One doesn't have to hate Jews or be against the existence of Israel as a Jewish state to simply think the Palestinians deserve some quick resolution to an injustice that has festered for more than 50 years. The conflict is certainly not all Israel's fault, but your constant blaming of the Arabs for everything isn't very fair either. There's a lot of blame to go around on both sides.
December 18, 2005 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for sharing the poll results.
According to the JMCC poll 55.1% of Palestinians support a 2-state solution.
And the 44.9%? I am imagining a very bleak answer to my question, and praying that to counter that image there were a choice of nuanced alternative answers.
Also interesting:
When asked about the performance of the PLC, a ratio of 66.4% ranked it as either average or bad while only 14.8% said the PLC performance is good.
December 18, 2005 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
More than disenfranchised, they were driven from their homes because of their ethnicity. And they had the same right not to be driven from their homes that you have not to be driven from your home because of your ethnicity.
The thing is that supporting this kind of ethnic bigotry is really not in line with the American national philosophy or with modern thought in the West. True liberals are disappointed that it is taking so long for the United States to come to its senses, but it will - and it will stop supporting the bigoted idea that Israel should belong to the Jewish ethnic group.
When Israel loses Western support it will have no choice but to accept a South Africa-style solution of one multi-ethnic state. Zionists are nuts but they aren't really suicidal. I'd just rather it be sooner than later.
December 18, 2005 9:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I imagine that 44.9% wants one state that is 45% to 55% Jewish, that abolishes ethnicity-based immigration, allows all Arabs and Jews to travel freely through the country, comes up with some form of compensation for the land appropriated from Arabs, and enforces tolerance of all religions.
What very bleak answer are you imagining - and what is this image based on?
If my grandparents and family had been expelled as victims of something like Zionism where I live, I would not want a two state solution. Would you?
I guess that the idea that all of the alternatives to a two-state solution are "very bleak" is the product of immersion in Zionist propaganda. South African propaganda painted the alternatives to some form of White-controlled state remaining as just as bleak. We see how wrong that was.
December 18, 2005 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is the difference between Zionism and other nationalisms. There is a group of refugees today who are being denied the right to return to the place they were driven away from by force because of their ethnic group.
This is just simply a lie. There are countless examples around the world of people who were driven from their homes during a conflict and who are not allowed to return. Here's but one small example: in 1995, some 600,000 or so ethnic Serbs were expelled from a region of Croatia called the Krajina. They were simply told to leave at gunpoint and their houses are now occupied by ethnic Croats. No friggin' way are those Serbs coming back into Croatia. But do we see UN conferences expressing solidarity with the Krajina Serbs? Do we have the entire fucking world in high dudgeon because of this outrage? No.
Ah, you say, but surely two wrongs don't make a right. You're right, they don't. If the plight of the Krajina Serbs paralleled the plight of the Palestinian Arabs, then we would indeed have a case where we could say "two wrongs don't make a right." By any measure, what the Croats did to the Krajina Serbs was wrong.
But they are not parallels. For the umpteenth time: The Palestinians WERE NOT EXPELLED in 1948. Or, to be more precise, the vast majority of them were not expelled. They were encouraged to leave by the invading Arab armies that thought they would wipe out the nascent Jewish state before it got started. There were also refugees who fled as a consequence of the war itself, as there is in all wars. Yes, there were expulsions, but those are not, contrary to Palestinian mythology, the whole, or even the main part of the story.
But again unlike the Croats, Israel has been willing at every stage to share or partition the land. IT is worth recalling that the original UN partition plan called for Israel to be only on that part of the land where there was a clear Jewish majority. It was far less land than the borders that emerged after the conflict in 1948 (so your statement that the partition plan gave Jews a disproportionate amount of land given their population is another lie). It was ONLY the inability of the Arabs to countenance ANY Jewish state that forced Israel to conquer more land. Sure Israel took advantage of the situation to make its overall position more secure. But it was the aggression of the Arabs that lost them the land - make no mistake.
The Palestinians remind you of the old joke about the guy who kills his parents and then wants sympathy for being an orphan. It is their aggression that lost them their land. It is their utter inability to compromise that prevents justice. As soon as they realize that Israel will not commit suicide and that they must compromise and live with that compromise, then there can be peace.
December 18, 2005 10:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good. Now if Krajina was to be the entire Croatian state but 50 years previous Krajina was less than 10 percent Croat there would be a parallel. If the Serbs wanted to return I would support them in exactly the same way I support the Palestinian. Not because I hate Croats, but because as you say the Croats were wrong.
Vast majority as in you have numbers or vast majority as in telling yourself that makes you feel better about supporting Zionism?
Jews were about a third of the population and was given 55% of the territory in the UN partition plan. You are going to have to provide a cite that there was a clear Jewish majority in the 55% they was awarded. My understanding is that the partition created two regions both with Arab majorities with the expectation that one region would be ethnically cleansed.
But the two thirds of the population that was not Jewish had every moral right to deny the partition either way. They would have been less likely to do so if the partition divided the land quantitatively or qualitatitively in a way that did not favor Jews.
Once the Zionists remove the creation of one state from consideration and remove from consideration any division of territory that does not leave Zionists with a disproportionately large proportion of the land, it is possible to accuse the Arabs of being unable to "compromise".
It is not clear though that those things should be removed from consideration.
By suicide do you mean people dying or do you mean Zionists facing the indignity of only having one vote per person in a state the same way as the White minority of South Africa which committed "suicide."
December 19, 2005 3:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
The thing is that supporting this kind of ethnic bigotry is really not in line with the American national philosophy or with modern thought in the West.
Arnold, I agree that ethnic nationalism is not the American way. But at the same time, I think we need to give other nations leeway to decide their own way of organizing themselves. I prefer to see states secular and blind to race, religion, etc. However, I don't automatically condemn every state that wants to be Kurdish or Islamic or Armenian or Jewish or Christian or whatever as inherently bad. It all depends on how they treat people under their control who do not belong to the favored group. Where I criticise Israel is in their treatment of the Palestinians. I don't think they've realistically dealt with the issue that there were and are a huge number of Arabs living under their control without basic rights.
December 19, 2005 5:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Brad, most historians believe most Palestinians fled war zones as refugees--as always happens in war. Under international law, refugees have a right to return to their homelands. Israel has denied the Palestinians this right. The Zionist myth that Palestinians were involved in a plot with Arab armies to leave Israel to make room for the Arab armies to destroy Israel has largely been debunked. Some evidence has been found for forceful eviction, particularly towards the end of the 1948 war, but you are right that this was not the primary reason Palestinians left. Most were just fleeing to safety.
December 19, 2005 5:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
IT is worth recalling that the original UN partition plan called for Israel to be only on that part of the land where there was a clear Jewish majority. It was far less land than the borders that emerged after the conflict in 1948 (so your statement that the partition plan gave Jews a disproportionate amount of land given their population is another lie).
It isn't a lie Brad. It all depends on how you are defining population. You and Arnold are defining population differently. Don't accuse him of lying when he's got as legitimate view as you do. He's looking at the total population of British Palestine. You're looking at the population of the 55% of British Palestine that was reserved for Jews. In that portion, approximately 55% (if I remember right) of the population was Jewish). The UN sort of "gerrymandered" Palestine to create an area that had a Jewish majority. Maybe that was justified. But please don't accuse people of lying when all they are doing are looking at different facts than you're looking at.
December 19, 2005 5:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Palestinians remind you of the old joke about the guy who kills his parents and then wants sympathy for being an orphan. It is their aggression that lost them their land. It is their utter inability to compromise that prevents justice.
Here's where Brad disintegrates into anti-Semitism of his own.
December 19, 2005 5:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
My understanding is that the partition created two regions both with Arab majorities with the expectation that one region would be ethnically cleansed.
Arnold, there was a Jewish majority in the Jewish area. In his history of the conflict, Israeli historian Benny Morris (Righteous Victims)gives the population figures, but unfortunately I've lent my copy of Morris to someone else. I think the Jewish area of Palestine was about 55% Jewish, 45% Arab, more or less. To get a Jewish majority on a large part of it, however, Palestine had to be divided rather strangely.
All of this population history, however, doesn't really matter at this point. We now have approximately 5-6 million Jews living in Palestine/Israel whose rights need to be protected. We also have an equal number of Palestinians and Palestinian refugees living on the same land or in nearby refugee camps. Their rights also need to be protected too.
December 19, 2005 5:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
There is a group of refugees today who are being denied the right to return to the place they were driven away from by force because of their ethnic group.
You still have not established that Palestinian Arabs as a group were driven away by force -- the implication being that there was some Milosevic-style ethnic cleansing policy in place. Meanwhile, following Israel's emergence from the Arab League war of choice in 1948, Jews were expelled from Arab and other Muslim nations. Today, we have an opportunity whereby neither Jewish nor Arab national rights are mutually exclusive, and every rational reason for optimism for the establishment of two states for two peoples in the former British Mandate of Palestine. Only a war-monger can have a problem with that. Yet Arnold Evans consistently maintains that the only solution to the conflict is for Jews to reject Zionism, reject Israel, and abondon the goal of reintegrating the Jewish people within its native region with all the national dignity it deserves.
December 19, 2005 6:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not only did Israel express openness to the Beirut proposal, with statements to that effect from the Prime Minister's office (see Guardian piece I link to above), but Sharon also expressed an interest in going to Beirut to address the summit:
B) (and more importantly) Your original "contribution" was to somehow link Israel's lack of efforts at establishing peace in the region with some imagined failure of the Arab League to do the same.
Israel's efforts to establish peace in the region are evident by its bilateral settlements with Egypt and Jordan; the abandonment of its 20km security zone in south Lebanon in 2000, despite Lebanon reneging on its responsiblity to disarm Hezbollah; its ongoing negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, including Irael's withdrawal of troops and settlements completely from Gaza and from parts of the West Bank.
I would appreciate it if Luigi Vampa would share his intimate insights into the workings of the Beirut proposal and explain to us what has happened since the Arab League submitted its Beirut proposal to the UN Security Council following the summit.
December 19, 2005 6:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
You still have not established that Palestinian Arabs as a group were driven away by force -- the implication being that there was some Milosevic-style ethnic cleansing policy in place.
Some expulsion by force has been well documented--mostly toward the end of the war, but there's no evidence that it was official policy of Israel (more rogue soldiers). Most historians without strong ties to one side or the other now agree that most Palestinians simply fled fighting to find safety.
Meanwhile, following Israel's emergence from the Arab League war of choice in 1948, Jews were expelled from Arab and other Muslim nations.
This did happen and was a crime that should be condemned. Jews should have right to return or be compensated for their losses, whichever they prefer.
Today, we have an opportunity whereby neither Jewish nor Arab national rights are mutually exclusive, and every rational reason for optimism for the establishment of two states for two peoples in the former British Mandate of Palestine.
Hear, hear!
Yet Arnold Evans consistently maintains that the only solution to the conflict is for Jews to reject Zionism, reject Israel, and abondon the goal of reintegrating the Jewish people within its native region with all the national dignity it deserves.
It's important for those who criticise Israel to recognize that Zionism is not bad and that most Jews came to Israel fleeing real persecution (or at least pretty severe discrimination). Zionism is a response to real (often brutal) mistreatment--and also an attempt to preserve both a people and a culture that was threatened by (mostly European) oppression. At the same time, the fact that Zionism isn't evil doesn't lessen the fact that Palestinians have suffered from the establishment of a Jewish state and should receive some satisfactory settlement for their loss. These debates get so bitter that it's hard to see with clarity the facts here: there are two peoples, each with legitimate aims and aspirations, whose aims and aspirations unfortunately are somewhat in conflict with each other. We need to recognize the legitimacy of both sides--and move on from there toward resolving the conflict in a satisfactory manner, even if the solution isn't perfect for everyone.
December 19, 2005 7:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I guess that the idea that all of the alternatives to a two-state solution are "very bleak" is the product of immersion in Zionist propaganda.
Of course Arnold Evans would rely on such a guess. Could anyone think Mr. Evans really believes Jewish national interests are anything but nefarious? Not from anything written here.
December 19, 2005 7:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
It isn't a lie Brad. It all depends on how you are defining population. You and Arnold are defining population differently.
I wish it were so, Purple State. But even a generous reading of Arnold's statement cannot be reconciled with the facts. While it it true that Jews got more land (55%) of the original Mandate territory than their population (about a third), that measure is irrelevant because most of the land (about 60-75%) was desert. The borders were drawn to encompass as much of the Jewish population in one state as possible, and much of the land in between was desert. Click here for a map of the partition plan. You can see that it is a patchwork.
But even that is not relevant. The Arabs would not have accepted any plan, no matter how niggardly to Jewish interests, that involved a Jewish state. Here's what Azzam Pasha of the Arab League said on the eve of partition (from the same link):
The Arab world is not in a compromising mood. It's likely, Mr. Horowitz, that your plan is rational and logical, but the fate of nations is not decided by rational logic. Nations never concede; they fight. You won't get anything by peaceful means or compromise. You can, perhaps, get something, but only by the force of your arms. We shall try to defeat you. I am not sure we'll succeed, but we'll try. We were able to drive out the Crusaders, but on the other hand we lost Spain and Persia. It may be that we shall lose Palestine. But it's too late to talk of peaceful solutions.
This is what anti-Zionists never understand: it was the idea of a Jewish state, not the specifics of that state, that was rejected. It doesn't matter what the borders were, or the population ratio, or any other factor. Any solution in 1947 that involved a Jewish state was not acceptable to Arabs. Conversely, any solution that did NOT involve a Jewish state was unacceptable to the Jews. The difference was always that the Jews were willing to compromise, talk, resolve things peacefully, negotiate etc. The Arabs, as the quote indicates, wanted only war. And it has been ever thus.
But you are right that the Palestinian refugees and their descendents, whatever the reason for their flight, have gotten one of history's worst deals. Betrayed at every turn, first and foremost by their leadership, they deserve resolution. But they cannot expect Israel to admit a hostile, belligerent force in their midst. It is simply unthinkable. They deserve a state of their own, some compensation for their losses (a concept unique to this issue by the way) and a chance to get on with their lives. A two-state solution was the right answer and always will be the ultimate right answer. But it won't happen as long as they continue to terrorize Israel, not to mention themselves. The likely result is that Israel will unilaterally draw the borders, build a strong fence, and leave the Arabs to their own devices. Under the circumstances, it's the best anyone can hope for.
December 19, 2005 7:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is what anti-Zionists never understand: it was the idea of a Jewish state, not the specifics of that state, that was rejected.
Brad, I think one of the reasons the debate about Israel-Palestine is so bitter is that people on either side have trouble seeing it from the other side's perspective. I agree with you that the Arabs did reject the very idea of a Jewish state (and many Arabs still do). But this rejection is perfectly reasonable from an Arab perspective, just like it would be perfectly reasonable for say American Protestants to object to the creation of a Catholic State in their land--or for non-hispanic Californians to object to the creation of a Mexican state in California.
This is not to say that the creation of a Jewish state was wrong. From a Jewish perspective, it was absolutely necessary--not because (as some opponents of Israel seem to imply) that the Jews were nefarious evil people trying to steal land for themselves from poor helpless Arabs. The Nazis had just tried to completely wipe out the Jewish people, culture, and religion. Even before the Nazis, the Jews were generally treated like crap in Europe. From a Jewish perspective, creating a Jewish state was essential to protecting both lives and culture from utter destruction.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that if everyone would open their minds and realize that neither of these peoples is "evil"--but each has experienced the same situation from vastly different perspectives, we might stop passing blame and start trying to build bridges.
December 19, 2005 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
At the same time, the fact that Zionism isn't evil doesn't lessen the fact that Palestinians have suffered from the establishment of a Jewish state and should receive some satisfactory settlement for their loss.
While I appreciate your attempt at an evenhanded approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there is a little bit of rhetorical oversimplification to the statement above to the extent that it limits the conflict to a two-party dispute. Is it only that the Palestinians have suffered from the establishment of a Jewish state? Or isn't it at all arguable that the Palestinians have suffered at least as much from the radical rejection of Jewish national rights by the Arab establishments? (What happened to the priority of Palestinian national aspirations between 1948 and 1967, when Jordan controlled and annexed the West Bank and Egypt occupied the Gaza Strip?)
Imagine how much easier it would be for the Israeli electorate to establish a leadership with a more conciliatory attitude toward Palestinian national aspirations if their nation enjoyed equal relations among the other nations of the region. The pattern is clear that when the Israeli electorate is most confident in its security situation, it elects a more conciliatory leadership (ie, Rabin, Barak); and when it is least secure, it elects a more hardline leadership (ie, Netanyahu, Sharon). Surely this pattern has been recognized by the Arab establishment as well, and yet today only 3 out of 22 member nations of the Arab League even recognize Israel's legitimacy, with most maintaining a state of war with "the Zionist entity" (never using the I-word in official statements).
Israel has been a nation-state, and a fellow UN General Assembly member nation with every state in the Arab League, for nearly sixty years already. Maybe it's time for the Arab League to take its Beirut proposal seriously, and create a diplomatic channel with Israel through which to give it a real chance to succeed. But such proposals