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A Theory of Everything

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Ruy nicely notes that we're not selling A Theory of Everything. In fact, in our many discussions of Off Center we've developed a special aversion to comments that look at the big changes occurring in American politics and say, "it's easy to explain.  It's all because of X", where X is any one of twenty or so possible culprits.

When you're dealing with the shifting politics of a really big and complicated society, it is almost certainly a mistake to think there is any single golden key that offers the essential explanation. It makes more sense to track a series of shifts in the social and politial environment and think about whether and how they are interconnected (indeed, we think one of the great strengths of TPM has always been Josh's relentless efforts to push everyone to think about how event A or scandal B relates to the Bigger Picture.)


Our book does, however, plug for one central concept that helped us to pull together some of the multiple strands that have generated and sustained off-center politics: the idea of coordination. The GOP has created the most unified and coordinated political party in modern American history -- as we show in the book, that's a fact not just an assertion.


This coordination has played a central role in helping the Republicans to defy the normal laws of political gravity, even as they have moved far to the right. In a political system that was specifically designed to prevent unified action, coordination is an enormous political advantage. It has helped the GOP get the maximum value out of many of the other trends taking place in American society: the transformation of the media (including both the rise of avowedly partisan conservative media empires and the growing fixation on profits of mainstream news organizations), the increase in economic inequality, the rising role of money in politics, and the increase in safe seats.


Although Congress is at the center of the GOP machine, coordination has extended to embrace powerful interests (the K street project), the White House, the right-wing media, "grass-roots" advocacy groups, and conservative think tanks. Indeed, the development of informal networks extending beyond the formal institutions of Congress and executive is crucial. (In the book we cite a classic study that shows how Cosimo de Medici used control of informal networks to dominate Florentine politics even though he "never assumed lasting public office" and "hardly gave a public speech.") These informal GOP networks have fostered fairly coordinated actions in a system where checks and balances are supposed to ruthlessly chip away at unified political action.


Coordination is power. It makes it far easier to control the agenda (which is crucial in politics), to stay on message, and to use legislative procedure (as well as even more obscure elements of policymaking) to pursue off-center goals while presenting a moderate face to the public. Coordination helps the GOP divide opponents, and protect potentially vulnerable Republicans from exposure -- as well as shower them with cash if all else fails. At least until recently, this new system has been self-reinforcing. As members of the conservative coalition gained confidence that their leaders could deliver, they became more willing to go along, which made it easier for leaders to deliver, and so on.


We are not saying (and recent events have driven this point home) that the GOP is always unified, or that it can get away with anything even when it is. The unity achieved over the past decade, however, has been both unprecedented and far in excess of anything its opponents have been able to muster. That unity has helped Republicans achieve a surprising degree of electoral and policy success despite moving off center -- a course of action that is supposed to bring a party to ruin.


Maybe, however, as many have argued (both in this discussion and elsewhere) ours is a story of the past, not the present. Is the GOP machine cracking up? That's the topic of our next post.  


4 Comments

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Communication across the revolutionary divide is inevitably partial.
Thomas S. Kuhn

The target of the Bush Administration is Franklin D. Roosevelt. Alienate the Roosevelt legacy from the American people, and you have essentially erased the heart and soul of the Democratic party. It was Nixon who first raised the specter that the McGovern liberals were different from the liberalism he was accustomed to. In foreign policy, it wasn’t Vietnam, it was what happened afterward. American liberalism failed to reassume its prior mantle as a participant in what was the bipartisan majority exercise of cold war policies.
Sensing this discontinuity in liberalism, conservatives jettisoned their prior exercise as a staid bunch who saw new recruits as suspect and formerly dwelled as a minority sect of political true believers. Ronald Reagan, the former New Deal liberal, broke the old conservative mode and made the ideology marketable. He quoted FDR at Republican conventions, a practice that is unlikely to be revived, seen or heard at any party convention to come. He morphed the instinct of a nuclear disarmer into the applied methodology of pragmatic solution. He largely left the Roosevelt legacy alone, perhaps concluding that in the revolution to come, it would eventually wither on the vine.
As Bush has shown, the Roosevelt legacy possesses a stronger root than anticipated. The attack on Social Security was repelled, and his presidential assault upon the Roosevelt’s Yalta accord only predicated a warped sense of alternative history in want of a time line. If Reagan built the constituency, Bush deploys the red meat to the true believers. This is about Bush, simply because the only domestic continuity his Republican party can project is that of cord last broken in 1929.
Yet it is all about foreign policy, which would appear to imply that the Democratic party may need to gag Dean and place Murta front and center. He will do for now. Under Murta’s withdrawal plan, what occurred in 1975 Vietnam will not happen in Iraq. Murta’s "withdrawal" is really a redeployment in the ongoing War on Terror, which just happens to be "the bipartisan majority exercise" of our time.

Yet it is all about foreign policy, which would appear to imply that the Democratic party may need to gag Dean and place Murta front and center. He will do for now. Under Murta's withdrawal plan, what occurred in 1975 Vietnam will not happen in Iraq. Murta's "withdrawal" is really a redeployment in the ongoing War on Terror, which just happens to be "the bipartisan majority exercise" of our time.


Before placing Murtha front and center, people should listen to him speak.  I find him to be nearly incoherent.  His credentials are impeccable, his passion is obvious, his speaking is awful, and the more the public sees of him, the more I suspect his shortcomings as a speaker would undermine his message.  


If Democrats are going to find someone to speak for them on this issue, and they decide collectively, to adopt a policy of advocating withdrawal (which I think is a political and policy mistake), they are going to need a better spokesperson than Murtha.  Wes Clark would do -- but he isn't for withdrawing.  In fact, besides Murtha, the only Democrats with the kind of heft required to advocate withdrawal are all for staying put.  It's a movement without a credible leader.  there are reasons for that, of course: the same people who are for withdrawing here are against every war the U.S. fights, or otherwise have nothing to recommend themselves as foreign policy gurus.    

Hacker and Pierson: "The GOP has created the most unified and coordinated political party in modern American history -- as we show in the book, that's a fact not just an assertion."


Wil Rogers: "I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat."


East Germany was ruled by a unified and coordinated political party, even more so than its patron the Soviet Union. It cracked in a matter of weeks, and due to actions totally out of its control. Czechoslovakia opened its border to West Germany and didn't close its border to East Germany. Result the Berlin Wall overnight became the equivalent of the Maginot Line, something to drive around rather than to cross.


Yes the Republican Party is coordinated. Which makes it hostage to its coordinators. And in the months since Hacker and Pierson started writing (because I am assuming this wasn't thrown together), the wheels have been coming off the coordinators' wagon(s). It is conceivable that Cunningham/Scanlon/Abramoff/DeLay/Ney/Goode/Wade/another Ney (from Ohio)/some defense contractor from San Diego I never heard of before Monday/Norquist/Rove/Reed/and Oxycontin Rush might all be swept off the political table between now and next summer. And we could add more names. The question now becomes "Can the supremely centralized, coordinated Republican Party machine survive the decapitation of its Politburo?"


Is the Republican Party the equivalent of the East German government? All powerful one moment, a crippled giant the next? We'll see. But for the hopeful it looks like a Ponzi scheme about to unravel and when pyramid schemes break down they break down with astonishing speed. And a lot of people who bought in at the bottom levels are left bewildered and filled with a sense of betrayal.


Mid-terms anyone?

 I would identify two factors in how the Republicans have facilitated their backlash insurance.  One is that there are more states/districts where the majority among voters who don't know anything about the candidates just vote party vote Republican than where the majority of such voters vote Democratic.  While this is in part due to gerrymandering/the Senate's small state advantage, the important thing is that Republicans can win elections by just remaining competitive among the middle, as opposed to Democrats who need substantial victories in the middle.

 However, this is not a complete explanation for continued Republican victories.  One would expect that with the Republicans moving so far to the right, that they would have an uphill fight just to remain competitive in the middle.  This they do in two ways: one is to lie about their agenda so that some members of the middle won't recognize how extreme they are.  The second way they compete for the middle is to kick their opponents out (remember Bush's constant reference to Kerry's status as the "most liberal" member of the Senate during the campaign).  In part, this strategy requires cooperation among the Democrats by adhering sufficiently to leftwing orthodoxy and associating with icons of cartoon versions of the left like Michael Moore.

In my comment on Hacker and Pierson's last post, I pointed out how moving away from plurality voting and adopting majority rule voting could strengthen Republican moderates who would actually stand up to their far-right base.  The flip side of this is that it would help Democrats who don't cooperate with the Republicans' strategy of kicking the Democrats out of the middle.  Consider a Democratic primary under our current system featuring one candidate who adopts elements of the Republican agenda, with possible modification, which are popular with all but the far-left activists and one who strictly adheres to left-wing orthodoxy.  Given that activists turn out to vote in greater numbers, the adherent of strict left-wing orthodoxy is likely to win the primary.  Then in the general election, the far-right of the Republican party can still rely on its base and those in the center whom they con into believing that they aren't as extreme as they really are.  However, some members of the center, even those who recognize how extreme the Republicans really are, would face a difficult decision between acquiescing to the Republicans' far-right agenda and acquiescing, or apparrent acquiescing, to element of the agenda of the far-left, setting the stage for the Republicans to kick the Democrats out of the center.

Now consider what would happen under majority rule voting.  Under such a voting system, the heterodox Democrat would be able to enter the general election without harming the prospects of the Democratic nominee against the Republican.  This is because all voters who would vote for the Democratic nominee in the absence of the heterodox Democrat would continue to rank him above the Republican, regardless of wheter they rank the heterodox Democrat above or below the nominee.  However, some members of the middle who rank the Republican above the Democratic nominee because they find the far-left worse than the far-right, would have no objection to the heterodox Democrat and thus rank him above the Republican, making it possible to amass the necessary large victory in the middle for a Democrat to win. 

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