Trying Harder
The other day, Paul Krugman said of our odd high-growth, falling-wages economy "Nor, I should say, is there any easy way to place more than a small fraction of the blame on Bush administration policies." Jonah Goldberg asks "Does anyone doubt that Krugman will be rolling up his sleeves to do the hard and necesary work to blame Bush?" That's a pretty funny joke, though actually quite unfair to Krugman. Kevin Drum gives it a shot:
This isn't really a surprise. As near as anyone can tell, productivity appears to be primarily a result of technology advances, and neither Democrats nor Republicans have very much to say about that. Compensation, on the other hand, is primarily a function of how tight the labor market is, and Republicans have long done the business community's bidding by pursuing policies that keep the labor market slack. Democrats, by contrast, generally try to pursue full employment policies.
I don't really think that will wash. Lyndon Johnson arguably had a full employment policy, but Bill Clinton didn't. We did have a full employment reality during the late nineties (see this book by Jared Bernstein and Dean Baker) but the relevant shift took place at the Federal Reserve to whom modern Democrats have agreed to delegate responsibility for making employment-inflation tradeoffs. So if you're going to blame anyone, I think you should blame Alan Greenspan, who's been raising interest rates lately despite a weak labor market. Arguably, this circles back to Bush's big budget deficits, which put pressure on the Fed to maintain a tight monetary policy. But also arguably, it doesn't circle back at all and the Fed shouldn't be so skittish.
In many ways, though, today's economic performance simply continues the 1990s trend toward ever-increasing inequality, albeit at a lower level such that the poor are actually getting poorer rather than merely getting richer more slowly. You can't "blame Bush" for that trend, which clearly predates him, but he's also not the sort to want to do anything about it. In his defense, however, I get the sense that most Democrats don't want to do anything about it either.












Comments (17)
But the first step, at least, which Krugman did in this column, is to clear the ideological ground and stipulate that Americans are not suffering from false consciousness when they tell pollsters they are unhappy about the state of the economy. This is, essentially, the argument of George Will and others on the right who resent Bush's continued low polling numbers on economic questions despite the decent macro-economic #'s over the past year or so.
Notwithstanding today's remarks by Kevin Drum, the Dems should take another suggestion from him and say, in response to Will et. al, "median wages, median wages, median wages", whenever this argument is joined, as it was between Will and Bob Reich on This Week the other day. Reich missed the moment, however.
The point is a simple one linked to the broader income and wealth inequality problem, of course: people don't think the economy is doing well unless they see evidence of that in their pay checks, as opposed to say, their doctor or Katie Couric or George Will. The rest of the economic stats, especially GDP, don't describe this rather fundamental apprehension of quotidian experience, which seems to be occluded for both politicians and the elite mediaby the class blinders they wear , without even knowing they are wearing them--a doubled form of blindness. Perhaps we should call this false unconsciousness squared and direct George Will to the real location of the ideological unreal in American society.
December 6, 2005 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think Matthew somewhat mischaracterizes rubinomics, which took the approach of saying let's get our fiscal house in order, for which the bond market will reward us, as a result of which the economy will function better, grow more, and create more jobs.
that's a little more than outsourcing to the Fed.
that said, it's not altogether clear what the policy alternatives are: strengthening unions is a very long-term project; globalization does have a tendency towards lowering wages; getting our fiscal house back in order will have a contractionary impact on the economy (either through higher taxes, lower spending, or both); and the best single thing that could be done - nationalizing health care - is still very much in third rail country.
which isn't to say that i don't think we shouldn't follow rubinomics and get our fiscal house back in order, but we shouldn't think that that will suddenly make real wages increase for most people.
December 6, 2005 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rolling up my sleeves, the first thing to note is that we're not experiencing a "high-growth" economy by any serious standard. This recovery lags previous ones in every aggregate indicator save two: corporate profits and residential investment. Check out this for evidence (and, yes, this is a shameless plug, but, it's right on point):
http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/bp168
And, this is *after* we've allowed a president to have all-but-absolute say over fiscal policy and pumped $930 billion in deficit spending into the economy.
Anybody who wasn't committed solely to upper-income tax cuts would have gotten much, much better macro performance out of this much deficit spending.
That wasn't actually that hard...
joshb
December 6, 2005 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
"I think Matthew somewhat mischaracterizes rubinomics, which took the approach of saying let's get our fiscal house in order, for which the bond market will reward us, as a result of which the economy will function better, grow more, and create more jobs."
Hear, hear!
And it was even more than that. There was a completely explicit deal made between the WH and Greenspan to trade dealing with the deficit for cheap money.
Isn't it funny how Democratic administrations like Clinton and LBJ that are philosophically attached to raising median and below median wages managed to accomplish their aims, while Republican administrations philosophically attached to capital gains and weak wages also managed to accomplish their aims?
Helluva coincidence.
December 6, 2005 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
"This recovery lags previous ones in every aggregate indicator save two: corporate profits and residential investment." - joshb.
The Corporate Sector has been making its profits the old-fashioned (since Reagan) way: by merging and cutting jobs.
The Private Sector has been surviving the new-fashioned (since Greenspan) way: by refinancing their over-valued house and taking out the equity in cash via low-interest (Chinese) loans.
When the music stops, where will we all sit?
December 6, 2005 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Notwithstanding today's remarks by Kevin Drum, the Dems should take another suggestion from him and say, in response to Will et. al, "median wages, median wages, median wages", whenever this argument is joined, as it was between Will and Bob Reich on This Week the other day. Reich missed the moment, however.
Thank you. When I watched Reich's non-reply, I wanted to scream. What is it going to take to get a Democrat to respond forcefully, substantially and articulately to the Republicans' talking points? Would a little rehearsal before appearing on national TV be too much to ask?
December 6, 2005 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Matt, you can try to appear balanced by saying you can't "blame Bush" for the trend and that most Democrats don't want to do anything about it. But the bigger point to be made, heard and voted on, is that ZERO Republicans want to do anything about it. Never have, never will. At least during Democratic primaries we heard discussion of poverty, wages, middle class expansion, etc., even if it was primarily from John Edwards. The truth is that the party of Bush cares not one bit that the poor are becoming poorer. They still hold to the notion that if you give more capital to those that already have most of it and, hope really, really hard, that they will spend it on the masses then we will all flourish.
Democrats at least realize there is some pain happening below the top 10%, even if they don't have a canned, consistent response as to how to combat the problem, like "cut taxes." The focus that continues to be placed on Macro-economic numbers versus on the ground reality and the ever growing fight of the middle class with healthcare, energy costs, etc., in order to put the politics of the right in a better light explains all we need to know about the difference in focus.
December 6, 2005 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
In many ways, though, today's economic performance simply continues the 1990s trend toward ever-increasing inequality,
You misspelled "1980s trend", which temporarily slowed and even reversed ever so slightly in the 1990s, probably because of the slightly better push towards full employment/unionization under Clinton and the generally better economy. It did start again in the very late 90s, but of course has accelerated under Bush.
December 6, 2005 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Matt,
You get that sense too?
Maybe Ed Kilgore knows where the Katrina Revolution is hid...
Too bad it got lost...populism is the only route back into the South and the Democratic Party's pissed away yet one more opportunity
December 6, 2005 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is absolutely the case that Republicans do not care about inequality or falling family income one iota. It is totally up to Democrats to propose solutions to this.
Now I'm generally a free-market kind of guy, but it is clear to me that certain free-market assumptions are clearly off the mark:
1. Raising the minimum wage destroys jobs. I don't think there is much evidence that this is actually the case up to a certain point. Sure you wouldn't want to raise the minimum wage from $5.00 to $20.00 overnight, but I think the economy can withstand some increase now, especially since there hasn't been a raise in quite a while.
2. Immigrants do the jobs Americans won't. There are certain areas where this is true, in science and engineering and in certain highly technical areas. But the vast majority of immigrants have no special skills and increase the labor supply to the point where wages can be kept low. An adjustment in immigration laws to favor highly educated people over low-skilled people is in order. This is a tough message for liberals to hear, but their concern should be for American working-class people first.
December 6, 2005 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll believe employers don't rely on low-skilled immigrant labor the day I see white people in the fields picking strawberries and hanging on street corners in front of hardware stores waiting to be picked up for day labor. Economic forces, not immigration policies, are the driving engine of this issue.
December 7, 2005 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
This might be heresy on a liberal/progressive blog, but let me throw it out there: immigration keeps labor rates low.
I'm not necessarily advocating less immigration, but there can be no denying it. People say "immigrants do the jobs Americans won't", but it's not that simple. Plenty of immigrants do jobs Americans will do, and in doing so lower wages for everyone in those jobs. Even at the low end of the job market, in the truly undesirable jobs, having immigrants around willing to do those jobs lowers the pay for the working poor in all jobs.
December 7, 2005 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm surprised at the helplessness of the suggestions here. Try this simple solution:
1. Tax the rich
2. Subsidise things that everybody needs
e.g. Health Care, food, education. (But be careful how you do it with housing - interfering in the housing has notorious negative externalities.) Better to do it by improving and paying for services in poor neighbourhoods.
Shouldn't be too hard for a democrat to think of.
December 8, 2005 1:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm surprised at the helplessness of the suggestions here. Try this simple solution:
1. Tax the rich
2. Subsidise things that everybody needs
e.g. Health Care, food, education. (But be careful how you do it with housing - interfering in the housing has notorious negative externalities.) Better to do it by improving and paying for services in poor neighbourhoods.
Shouldn't be too hard for a democrat to think of.
December 8, 2005 1:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't disagree that low-paid (and especially undocumented) immigrant labor keeps wages low. What I do disagree with is the idea that immigration policies are to blame, and that the problem would magically go away if policies were reformed. It's like saying people would stop using drugs if we fought a giant drug war against suppliers.
I also disagree with the idea that the economy does not depend on unskilled immigrant labor. It does in many large industries, and that is a fact. We can talk about why that's true or ways to make it less true, but not about whether it's true.
Of course immigration policies have a role to play in whatever solutions are crafted, but without an understanding of the economic forces behind the issue, there will be no progress.
December 8, 2005 7:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Raise the minimum wage"
And clearly this failure can be placed firmly at the foot of the Bush Administration and its allies in Congress.
Raising the minimum wage directly puts dollars in the pockets of millions and has indirect effects pretty far up the income ladder. And the predicted ill effects are one) not supported by historical evidence and two) being promulgated by the same people that say tax cuts for the rich pay for themselves and three) that the Iraq War will pay for ITS self.
It is odd in the extreme that people who have fully convinced themselves that Bush is lying in all other circumstances have bought into the voodoo economics Cato and Heritage and AEI started selling back in the late seventies and early eighties.
Lots and lots of people have reluctantly and ruefully concluded that they were wrong on Iraq. Well many of those people need to reexamine their economic assumptions. Because the same people who spent the last fifteen years selling War on Iraq overlap with the same group that has been selling varieties of Supply Side Economics since 1982.
I don't blame people for buying in. Millions and millions have been spent to move Conventional Wisdom to a place that Franklin Delano Roosevelt would not even recognize. But just because 90% plus of people believe in any single proposition doesn't make it true. Just check out Bush approval ratings in October 2001 and compare them to now. People are waking up, and this can be extended to economic issues.
Bush lied, paychecks died. Still or newly angry at the lies that brought 2100 Americans home in boxes from Iraq? and counting? Well transfer that anger to Bush economic policy. Because it is infused with the same level of deceit.
December 10, 2005 8:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
BradtheDad mentioned the conventional free-market assumption that raising the minimum wage destroys jobs (he disagrees in the present instance). Perhaps the easiest way to look at it is this: If the minimum wage is set higher than the value of the marginal product that these workers would produce, it will lead to lower employment. If not, not. In other words, as long as what the worker produces is worth more to the employer than what the employer has to pay the worker, the employer will keep hiring, even if the minimum wage goes up.
BradtheDad also mentions the assertion that immigrants do the jobs Americans won't. While he takes issue with that, he doesn't go far enough. The fact is, there is no such thing as a job an American won't do. There are only jobs that Americans won't do at the wages currently on offer. As someone who calls himself "a free-maket kind of guy" BradtheDad should be the first to realize that if there is a shortage of something (in this case labor to do certain jobs), there is a perfectly good free-market solution: raise the wage for that labor until you get enough of it.
December 11, 2005 1:26 AM | Reply | Permalink