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3 themes

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Although the Internet has doubtlessly swallowed my tiny old posts, like the whale did Jonah, I know I said some time back that the D's needed to pursue 3 themes: corruption (we are against it), Iraq (we need to get out), and rips in the social fabric (pensions gone, education more expensive, medicare unfunded, etc.). I remind myself (and you) of these to make a point: many facts have lately reinforced the merit of these themes. But because D's didn't push on corruption earlier, they now find that the in-the-tank balancers of the mainstream media are tarring them with the Cunningham/Abramoff brush. D's asked for this by not arguing more forcefully earlier for thorough-going reform. They didn't because they were afraid and divided. And now they are paying the price.


Iraq teaches the same lesson that timing matters. Other than Murtha, Feingold, Obama, a few others, most were for the last two years guilty of sad shilly-shallying around the honest hard truth: the Administration has presided over a failure based on their fraud and the US now has to leave for the sake of our troops, not in a mad race for the border but in a steady and reasonably predictable manner. But because they didn't speak what they really thought early enough, and even now are not forthright about the truth, almost all of them look like positioners, followers, anything but leaders.


Finally, as to the tears in American society, while the D's have tried harder on this topic, they still have not made nearly enough of the President's assault on social security and the Administration's failure to address any, truly any, of the other major problems.


Didactic Lesson: You've got to get your themes launched early. You've got to get your arguments out there before all the facts come in. Otherwise events overtake you, and make you irrelevant.


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It's interesting, because that advice is precisely the opposite of what opposition parties around the world usually do.
1. Most don't announce any policies until just before an election, because that doesn't give the other side a target to criticise. Also the longer your policies are out there the more likely the something will go wrong and make them look bad.
2. Arguments before facts is a good way to make mistakes and look incompetent. An opposition all around the world is supposed to relentlessly criticise and not say what they would do. This makes the ruling party look as bad as possible while giving them no targets to counter attack on. If the Republicans ask what the Dems would do they should say the advantages of holding office are needed for them to form good policies, so they are not in the position to make suggestions. This makes them impossible to criticise, points out the Republicans have all the power, and that to expect the Dems to do something they need to be voted for.
3. An opposition party is supposed to look irrelevant. Their strategy is to warn voters what happens if they are made irrelevant. There are two strategies, the first is what good the Dems will do if elected, and what bad will happen if they are not elected. Fear Uncertainty and Doubt is what the Dems need to sell now, not half baked hypotheticals based on if they had some power.
  Everything the Dems have accomplished in the last year is from the Republicans suiciding. Every time the Dems open their mouth except to criticise they just give Rove a chance to change the subject. Hillary understands this through Bill which is why she never says anything. The Dems need to talk about thorough reviews, reform, getting rid of corruption, investigative committees, special prosecutors on everything they can think of, and keep it vague. Your suggestions could have been written by Rove himself. Try reading some Machiavelli.

The "Democrats" aren't in a position of calling for the kind of withdrawal Murtha, Obama and Feingold have advocated, as a party, because they are still beholden to too many leading and powerful remaining hawks (like Lieberman) and fudgyhawks (current status of Hillary, who voted for the resolution that lost 58-40 but hasn't really reverse her position a la Murtha).

I have elsewhere proposed that what is needed, so that the Democratic Party can unify around the issue as an antiwar party for the 2008 election, when, I fear and expect, the Iraq War will still be with us.

RIGHT NOW, leading antiwar Democrats in and out of government, not the Democratic Party establishment but precisely people like Reed Hundt and whatever celebs he knows, and people like Tom Hayden and Michael Moore and Arianna Huffington and even some Hollywood folk, together with some of the 60+ members of the caucus that Maxine Waters founded, could get together to recruit a raft of strong antiWar Democratic candidates to challenge in the primaries every hawk or fudgyhawk Democrat in either House up for re-election next year.  Sure, they won't win a hell of a lot of primaries, but even a few close calls and a victory or two would have an electrifying effect on the Democratic Party over the next two years.  Most of the Democrats in each house are now antiwar, but to have a unified party platform requires a lot of extra effort from the grassroots.  I don't see it being made.   The rest is just chattering.

As for the issues involved in forming the 'collective Al Lowenstein 68' that I just described, which I have no doubt is one of those forbidden-because-effective-for-progressives strategies that characterize the programmed-against-authentic-progressive nature of US politics.   But here is a discussion of what, in a free society, would be a no-brainer, and in the society that we have would require some courage -- more than just a little, but less than others have shown in the past and even some albeit unrecognized do in the present:

http://www.tpmcafe.com/story/2005/11/27/74425/217

And as for an assessment of the Iraq War, I have recently posted an excellent article by Seymour Hersh who points out that those who expect a rapid end to the war in Iraq during the Bush presidency are just whistling past the graveyard:

http://www.tpmcafe.com/story/2005/11/29/193439/01


OK, now as for corruption and the social fabric, corruption is a tricky issue.  Most voters are bored by it, partisans get all excited about the corruption from the other side (just read a litany of some Clinton-hater of the supposed criminality of the Clinton Administration, from Vince Foster and Whitewater and FBI files and so forth), and others are skeptical about the significance of it.  Consider that, just before the 1972 campaign, how McGovern was pilloried, including by James Reston ("Better Elevate Them Guns A Little Lower", he titled a column, quoting Andrew Jackson at the battle of New Orleans), for suggesting that Nixon's was "the most corrupt Administration in American history".  And there was plenty that had come out, not only about Watergate, but about other scandals and practices, by October 1972.  Corruption can be a good issue against specific politicians.  Since neither party can claim pristineness, only the Repugs seem to be able to get away with bullying over it, even though there is so much more merit to criticizing them for it than Democrats.  If a good way to formulate the issue can be presented, I'd like to see it.

Now there is the social fabric issue.   That's what the Democrats as a national party (individual candidates usually being antiwar) is left running on, and they should make the most of it.  There is high energy prices, which I believe cannot but slow down the economy considerably, and all the ballyhoo about gasoline being down to pre-Katrina levels notwithstanding, COLD states are facing huge heating bills for this winter.  The house I live in was just insulated with blown insulation this August, and I expect the gas bills to go UP this winter, just less than they would.
On Social Security, all the Democrats -- you know, the ones who 'got with the program and justified the lying' in 2004 and didn't say squat about the flipflop spin's flimsiness (along with the press also 'getting with the program and justifying the lying' in the same way) for FIVE MONTHS as it hardened into a national cliche, the Democrats and the 527s none of whom saw fit to play the interview with Dick Clarke from Fahrenheit 9/11 where he describes Bush as of 9/12 coming to him and trying to badger him to come up with some way of linking the events to Iraq -- these Democrats need to find the old ads where Repuglicans accuse Democrats of trying to scare seniors about Social Security.   Then you cut to mass demonstrations of RWers chanting 'hey hey ho ho, Social Security has got to go' and put some quotes from leading RW think tanks on the screen to similar effect, and then you play that across the country like they did with the Willie Horton ad in 1988.  Presto!  But will it happen?
Oh, I forgot, we live in the real America, where no horses can win at the racetrack of politics unless they are the establishment's horses, and where the agenda for the Democrats is to "blow it" in 2006.  And, of course, any suggestion that what I just pointed out is really the case is met (unless ignored) with presumptions of paranoia or at least cynicism.

But I just outlined a home-run ad for Democrats, the kind they pay consultants more money than I would need to live on and get the spiritual healing that I can't afford.  Anyone care to take any bets that they won't do any such thing or anything else with that kind of impact helpful to them in next year's elections?

So there's all the pooh poohing as 'conspiracy thinking' and none of the pursuit of the no-brainer ideas that are needed by progressives.  And no one to call the whole process on it -- since you can't gain any aboveground prominence when you are so unruly as to tell it like it is, and not recognize "boundaries" (ie, the glass walls of repression that keep the game rigged against authentic progressive politics).

I strongly suspect that the reason they've been mute is that we have nothing in Congress but empty suits. We need a new party. There's no reform possible here because the professional members of the party are just marking time waiting for "historical forces" to get them back at the trough. I don't want to be a part of that. Our guys in Congress are too much like their counterparts across the aisle. I've no specific charge to make but they could be quiet simply because they don't want to get noticed or worse: Unca Karl's detectives might have the goods on them. Blackmail is a wonderful political tool.

  No, they are mute because it's the correct strategy. Look at Arnold when he ran for governor in California. He didn't give a single policy of what he would do for governor. He focused everything on his opponent and said he would have to review everything and clean house. Good political strategy that left Gray Davis nothing to attack but smear jobs that helped Arnold anyway.

  Look at how Bush got elected. He cast doubt on Gore but was vague about what he would do. By the time Bush won no one had any idea what policy Bush would follow. The election was all about the faults of Gore because Bush gave no targets except promising to clean house, review things, etc. This is standard electioneering strategy.
  On the other hand the Dems do the exact opposite. Instead of offering no policies you can't shut them up. Instead of criticising the administration until recently it was all bipartisan and support the president. So Bush has had the opportunity to act like an opposition party even though he was elected. When the Dems suggest something he creates doubt about it, says he'll look into it, and then the Dems are on trial not Bush. 
  So Rove plays the Dems all the time. He deliberately stops  Bush from defining policies so the Dems have nothing to attack. Then the Dems crack and offer a specific policy then Rove jumps all over it and makes the Dems look incompetent, and if they try and change it then they are flip floppers.
  The Dems should be all negative on Bush, say nothing but they'll need to review everything Bush has really done before forming policies, say they'll clean house with corruption and cut Bush's wasteful spending. If they do that they'll win by a landslide. The Republicans will win in Congress though because the Dems will do exactly the wrong, lame strategy they employed the last two elections.

It is hard to position yourself to do what is right as well as gain from changes in the public mood (after all if your only guide is the public mood two years ago then you will only be following successful Republican positions), if you are a "dedicated follower of fashion". Our Dems may not show leadership, but they sure dress well.

I've said this before in a different forum, but I have to say that because of the Democrats inability to come up with a coherent message of opposition to prolonging the war unecessarily, the Administration is going to do the exact same thing they did with the creation of the Deptartment of Homeland Security. They will criticize and vilify the Democrats ideas(to start drawing down troops) and then when it's unavoidable, claim the idea as their own. It worked then and I don't see why it won't work for them this time too.

The same thing with corruption, the White House will take credit for any anti-corruption measures that energe from congress, much as they did after the corporate Enron and Worldcom scandals. 

very thoughtful!

Cloudy, how are Dems beholden to Lieberman?  I must have missed that.  Does he have a PAC and contribute to their campaigns?

Sorry Carot, but I disagree.


Being against corruption is always a positive unless your party is neck deep in it, in which case it is hypocrisy. For the Democrats to take a strong anti-corruption stance is simply commonsense. You're right in that they don't need to be presenting detailed anti-corruption policies right now for the GOP to savage. But nailing the GOP on the fact that they are not so much a political party as a crime family makes great sense. Reed proposes this as a theme, not a policy.


The Iraq question is harder but your second assertion that agruments before facts look incompetent does not hold up for one simple reason: we have the facts. The Iraq war is a complete and total snafu up from the moment planning began to the our President's speech today and everything in between. We have the facts, the American public knows what the score is, and but the Democrats have squandered the chance to be the party of principle in favor of trying to outtough the GOP. Reed is right; Democrats come across as spineless, poll driven cowards on Iraq.


Lastly, irrelevance is the last thing the Democrats want. Again, I second Reed. If the Democrats establish a party narrative where the obvious themes (again, themes, not policy)are reform of Washington, saving and rebuilding the social safety net and a principled, rather than poll driven, response to Iraq, they can gain the attention and respect of the American people.


You are right about one thing: the Democrats don't need to be talking policy. They need to be talking about why they are different and a strong, viable alternative to criminals currently in office. In other words, they need to take Reed's advice and promote the themes that will return them to power.

Reed, good stuff as I have come to anticipate from you here.

I know this is OT but I would be most interested in hearing your thoughts on the consequences of media concentration for our country.  How serious is the problem?  Are there groups working on this issue which are doing good work and are worthy of supporting?  Perhaps you have posted on this already and I missed it in which case I apologize in advance.

I hired a lawyer some years ago who was a big-wig in the Dem party. He made the most succinct summary of the morals of the two parties I have seen. This was pre-Monica, so his remark turned out to be prescient.

He said, "Republicans think it's O.K. to cheat, Democrats think it's O.K. to screw."

I'd like my representatives to be straight-arrows on both accounts, but given a choice between lovers and crooks, I'll take the former any day.

I know this is OT but I would be most interested in hearing your thoughts on the consequences of media concentration for our country.

I second that interest.  And would add that it's not at all OT, either.  After all, a theme can only be so effective when the means of communication work against it.  For example, if Democrats promote stewardship of the public interest as a reform theme, how could such a theme ever get a fair hearing in the deregulated and privatised communications industry where any government regulation of public "airwaves" is contrary to the interest of the industry?  Personally, I would love to see such an example explored by a former Federal Communications commissioner.

I realize that there is so much of it to keep up with that the Dems can't keep up with it all, even if they weren't such a sad bunch of shillyshalliers, this deserves attention, particularly after today's Stay the Course to Victory #1276


U.S. Military Covertly Pays to Run Stories in Iraqi Press  at The Los Angeles Times (reg. req'd), Nov 30


Yesterday, an NBC correspondent called Bush's speech and PR offensive "propaganda" quickly adding "what the White House calls 'public diplomacy'"

Well NBC isn't the only one wising up

And I would like to hear Mr. Hundt's POV on media concentration from his insider's position as the head of the FCC.

What is the mechanism that would allow this party-wide unity to happen? Perhaps Mr. Hundt could design us one. There could be a Party Ideas Czar. All members would have to submit speeches to be approved in advance. New ideas would need a majority vote of the Ideas Council. On the other hand, let's not. We have a (partial) democracy here, which is supposed to be messy. The Republicans' inflexible adherence to an approved doctrine, the very device that has won them elections, will yet bring them down.

Didactic Lesson: You've got to get your themes launched early.


Amen. Basically, I was trying to say the same thing here, where it seems to me that a commenter was trying to instruct me that I should be kinder and gentler with the Democrats, because they are not in power, and they can't help it that they cannot be leaders. To which my reaction is: HUH? DUH? Oh yeah, it's true, if you can't lead then you usually don't get to lead; to borrow one of Bush's terms (which he uses so ironically without seeing it,) it's hard work to scale up the mountain from the bottom when you've ended up there. Crying won't help.


Can't others see how deeply the culture of victimhood has seeped into the very essence of what is called the Democratic party?


Not only that "we're for the poor" but "we're so poor"! Until, most blogging has not helped much, in my view. Much of the left of center political blogosphere has only now started to wake to this, mho gleaned from watching since before the Iraq invasion. Instead of presenting ideas, values, politics, alternatives, whatever you want to call it or believe it should be, most left of center blogs have been about complaining about W and his friends, deconstructing actual plots by W and friends, or making new ones up using the imagination; bewildered, lost tribes retreating into little echo chambers to lick wounds. It's just so clear to me that this is not the way to win over the scant few that are needed to make a majority again. Victimhood, outrage and protests doesn't cut it for those swing folks; you have to actually act like you can come up with ideas of your own and lead.

I believe the corruption theme will be a disaster for the Dems.  First, they ought to figure out if Americans believe they are honest.  I predict, lifelong Dem though I may be, that Americans by an overwhelming majority do not believe that Dems are more honest than Republicans.   Should Americans forget, Bill Clinton will be around to remind them.  People did not vote for Clinton because of his integrity. 

Are we going to end the war in Iraq?  Improve their health care?   Increase their wages?  Improve their job security?  Fix the pot holes? Lower their taxes?

Or are we just going to whine that Republicans steal more effectively than we do?

We'd do better to run under the old adage that "The Democrats will steal it from you, but THEY will give you some of it back"

Most Democrats know the right thing to do, or should know it.  With issues that are "damned if you do/damned if you don't" at least one can decide which action would do the least harm.  Generally that is not the difficulty.  What is hard is taking a stand, and announcing it out loud.  What politicians should do is behave every day as if they are willing to resign or be fired on principle.  That is what the best employees we all know do. And we do hire our leaders; we should be able to expect them to lead or be fired by us at the next election.  Leading these days in the current media climate is hard, however.  Democrats' motivations are all to often dissected by jaded, cynical talking heads or columnists who have been around Washington far too long to have any old fashioned idealism left.  A lot of times the right thing isn't even a question for them.  It is more often valued for style rather than substance.

I think you might musunderstand my position. I agree the Dems should attack on corruption. I said the Dems should be relentlessly negative and criticise everything the Republicans do, and that includes corruption.
Having the facts is not the issue, the Dems had the facts in the last 2 elections and still lost.
Irrelevance is exactly what you do want when the ruling party is messing things up. You don't want to be in a position where they use bipartisanship and policy speeches mid term to say the Dems were complicit in the mess up and had no better ideas anyway.
The Dems are likely to lose the next 2 elections not because they have no facts on their side but because they have too many.
Politics is a game and the guy who wins is the guy who plays it correctly, not necessarily the best guy for the country. At present there are only 2 people who understand US politics, Karl Rove and Bill Clinton. The rest are like shopkeepers and lawyers who have no clue how to appeal to an electorate. The only chance for the Dems is that Hillary will probably listen to Bill so you will have a campaign run by Bill.
Kerry and Dean are not politicians, they can't open their mouths without turning people off. Bush has good enough advice to avoid doing the same.
To understand politics you have to realise it is a game of attack and defense. You have to attack, and that is usually done by criticising the Republicans. The Dems failed to do this until recently because Rove neutralised their ability to criticise with the booby trap of bipartisanship.
The vote for War was another Rove trap. The Dems should have let Bush do the war without approval because now they could blame him for everything. By involving the Dems in the decision it enabled Rove to make the election a referendum on the war, and in that patriotic fervor it appeared traitorous not to vote Republican. So the Dems lost the election by simply being stupid compared to Rove.
Rove is brilliant on attack so the Dems must be brilliant on defense. The first rule is present no weak points as a target. Any policy grounded in facts is a weak point because Rove can distort it, sow fear, pick parts of it as wrong, build strawmen, etc until the facts are hopelessly compromised and the Dems viewed with suspicion.
To counter this the Dems must only use rhetoric, saying what are their objectives and not how to do them. Rove can't smear good objectives like ending poverty, peace with honor, ending corruption, etc. He can only smear personally then, and that usually rebounds on the accuser.
Voters don't want a political party to explain policies to them because they don't like wonks. That's why they hated Kerry and Gore. They don't want the details, they want to see good character, good intelligent behavior, nothing bad in the candidate's past, a commitment to reform, etc. If the Dems present these things they will win. If they try to be a boring wonk getting constantly distorted by Rove they will lose. By all means have good policies just don't talk about them, do them when elected.
People will never vote for a Dem wonk or wonk policies. The only lesson the Dems seem to learn from losing is how to add more wonks, which is why they have no chance.

Cloudy:

Do you respond to questions about what you write?  This is the second time I have asked you a question here to try better to understand what you are saying and why.  I think of this as a respectful, even flattering, way of treating other people who are advancing points of view.  The questions I've asked have not been asked rhetorically or in any spirit of hostility but out of a sincere desire to understand better in order to more knowledgeably entertain and perhaps further engage your arguments.  I honestly do not know how I can show any more respect for the views of others than by doing this. 

If you go to the "My Comments" section, it will indicate after each of your posts whether there have been any replies or not.  Sometimes--perhaps not often--replies turn out to be questions!  And this, I hope, is taken as a *good* thing!

First, about Lieberman.  Lieberman and other hawks and "fudgyhawks" like Hillary Clinton are not merely members of the Democratic Party but powerful Senators -- one the former VP on the ticket and the other the previous Democratic president's wife.
The question is, can the Democratic Party realistically adopt a national plank with that kind  of opposition to it among the leadership of the party?  My answer is -- well, it would be difficult to pull off, and could only be done if there were a massive move, like the systematic and powerfully backed primary challenges that I have mentioned, not scattershot campaigns, one here pushed by MoveOn against Lieberman and there by some obscure Green Party activist in NY named Greenfield or something.  If the whole raft of remaining Democratic hawks and fudgyhawks in both Houses faced challenges, and some of them almost lost or lost, (which ain't gonna happen with Lieberman in CT, and could only give Hillary a run for her money in NY with a powerfully backed electorally strong candidate), then the national Democratic Party, already moving in a dovish direction, might be sufficiently prodded so that the remaining hawks and fudgyhawks would be isolated.  Then it would be possible to adopt a NATIONAL antiwar Democratic plank, regardless of what Lieberman and Clinton and Clark say.  But this is possible only after systematically and not willy-nilly getting just about the whole rest of the Congressional delegation and party leaders behind the platform.  I have no magical powers.  This is my best judgment, but I stand by it and believe it to be spot on.

Now, as for failing to answer questions.  I am sorry I missed your other one.  I do check systematically for responses to my discussion posts, and respond to those responses pretty meticulously.  (I don't believe there is an unresponded to question in any of them in the last dozen or more discussion posts I have put up).  But on comments, I may be remiss. I don't always go back and check every comment for responses, or sometimes I don't get back until the thread has become stale (which happens pretty fast -- you rarely see comments added to a thread that is even 1 1/2 days old).  If I go through the trouble of composing comments on threads that old, I doubt they will get read, even by the person asking the question.

But I will try to be more diligent about it in the future.  I will look for your other question and try to answer it, but if I don't find it, you could tell me what it is.

AmericanDreamer -- I just went back and reviewed every comment of mine in the past month (out of over 65 total comments) that had received any response at all.  If anyone asked me a question, at least during that period, it was answered.  I couldn't find any response or question from you, at least in that time period.  Since I have made literally hundreds and hundreds of comments I didn't bother going back further in time to investigate, into October.  Still, if you let me know what and where the question was, I am happy to answer it.


I can also be emailed at cloudythescribbler@yahoo.com if you like

Cloudy, thanks very much.  Here is the earlier post:
 
http://www.tpmcafe.com/comments/2005/10/24/22398/951/7#7

   That was quite a doozy of a question!

I wrote a lengthy response to it, a very skeletal answer, hitting on at least one or two of the main issues, in that thread.

http://www.tpmcafe.com/comments/2005/10/24/22398/951/9?mode=alone
;showrate=1#9

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