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This Murray Waas article Josh linked to has a nice scoop up at the top, then goes on for many words, but then has something at the end worth paying attention to:

The Plame affair was not so much a reflection of any personal animus toward Wilson or Plame, says one former senior administration official who knows most of the principals involved, but rather the direct result of long-standing antipathy toward the CIA by Cheney, Libby, and others involved. They viewed Wilson's outspoken criticism of the Bush administration as an indirect attack by the spy agency.

Those grievances were also perhaps illustrated by comments that Vice President Cheney himself wrote on one of Feith's reports detailing purported evidence of links between Al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein. In barely legible handwriting, Cheney wrote in the margin of the report:

"This is very good indeed

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It is repeated endlessly that Plame was outed in "retaliation" against Wilson, or to "discredit" him.  Often it's even said that "Wilson claims" it was retaliation.  He does not.  In June and July 2003, multiple intelligence sources were speaking to the press and complaining of pressure they received from the Cheney camp, including multiple visits from Cheney himself, to "pump up" the WMD intelligence on Iraq.  Wilson himself says his wife was "hit" in order to silence these people.  She was, and it worked.

How do critics of the Bush administration counter the spin that "everyone thought Iraq had WMD"?

As much as we may dislike Cheney, I think it's wise of us lefties to recall how much we've despised the CIA in times past.

Mossadegh, Arbenz, Lumumba, Castro and exploding cigars, the Phoenix Program and tiger cages, Air America, William Casey and the pumping up of statistics on the Soviet Union, and for Cheney, the Agency's missing Saddam's nuclear program in the '80's -- the list goes on and on.

The CIA -- a dysfunctional bureaucracy whose senior management is so old and fat they can barely get out of their overstuffed chairs to attend to the gossip at the water cooler.

I don't know what to make of this thesis. It does, however, fold well enough into my thesis, which is elucidated on my blog,

http://www.calvinross.com/newnorma/

being that Cheney, Libby, et al are, well, knuckleheads, who can't stop themselves when they get all in a dither about the CIA. Since attack is their game, they go nuts, reflect later. Oops! We outed a spook. Whadda we do? Lie our way out.

An old tune. May not work this time.

Sorry, can't type.

Should be

http://www.calvinross.com/newnormal/

Thanks.

My take on the outing of Plame has long been that it was the equivalent of a mob knee capping. Away of letting the CIA know that there will be a price to pay for bucking Cheney.

The confusion about the motivation for the outing  originated, I believe,  in the need for a rationale to present to journalists. They couldn't say to them, "The CIA needs to be taught a lesson. " Rather,  they chose to peddle the idea that the trip was a boondoggle as way to get the reporters to file stories about Plame's undercover status.

The boondoggle argument was a  transparently weak case against Wilson which ironically made it hard for them the get anyone to bite on the story.

 

"As much as we may dislike Cheney, I think it's wise of us lefties to recall how much we've despised the CIA in times past.  Mossadegh, Arbenz, Lumumba, Castro and exploding cigars..."


Speak for yourself, not "us".


The CIA works for the President.  All of those operations you cite were Presidential operations, mostly under Republican Presidents.  They weren't the CIA operating freelance.


"The CIA -- a dysfunctional bureaucracy whose senior management is so old and fat they can barely get out of their overstuffed chairs to attend to the gossip at the water cooler."


Maybe if you'd met some civil servants, you wouldn't slander them that way.  They are folks who wanted to serve their country.

"The issue gets back to what about the fact that "Wilson's wife works for the CIA" was supposed to tend to discredit Wilson. The answer is that the CIA, as witnessed by Cheney's note on the Feith memo and other things, was regarded as unduly "soft" on Saddam Hussein."


If anything good comes out of the whole Iraqi Misadventure, perhaps it will be the final discrediting of all the Team B bullshit the Republicans have been peddling for the past three decades.

The CIA is a big place. You have very long hallways full of amazingly knowledgable people -- several universities worth of Phds across a wide spectrum of fields. There are amazingly dedicated people both at headquarters and in the field.

That said - it is a disfunctional place as well. The problem of the politicization has been there for a long time. However, the consequences of intelligence manipulation has never been as great as in the case of Iraq.

The Cheney cabal brought a new level of ferociousness to the politicization of intelligence. But "B teams", stove-piping, and cherry picking are not new. Read Melvin Goodman's articles  (a senior analyst on Soviet policy at the CIA from 1966 to 1986) about earlier episodes of politicized intelligence. The consequences of episodes of this during the cold war were deficit spending, lost opportunities, and setting ourselves up for blowback. As great as those costs were, they pale in comparison to what we currently face.

I think the key is effective oversight that ensures the broad professionals intelligence community in which we've invested many billions of dollars is allowed to provide truely independent assessments. It has occurred to me that both the neocons and those in the intelligence community who had more cautious views about going to war with Iraq would both agree with this statement: "If the intelligence bureaucracy had been allowed to work, we would never be in Iraq."

 

<How do critics of the Bush administration counter the spin that "everyone thought Iraq had WMD"?>

Not everyone believed that Iraq had functional WMD, especially not in March 2003 after inspections failed to find any evidence of WMD.  More importantly, virtually no one believed that Iraq had any intention of using WMD against the US. There is an excellent interview with Scott Ritter on this subject here: http://www.workingforchange.com/article.cfm?itemid=19907

The implication of their spin that "everyone thought Iraq had WMD" is that everyone believed this in March 2003, and that this somehow justified the invasion. It's just another of the big lies that the mainstream media refuses to challenge.

Maybe if you'd met some civil servants, you wouldn't slander them that way.  They are folks who wanted to serve their country.  petey

Well, petey, the CIA Inspector General doesn't seem to agree with you -- although you're sure on board with Porter Goss.

Let's see.  Khalid Al-Midhar and Nawaf Alhazmi? CIA knows the al Qaeda operatives and future hijackers have entered the United States (LAX) but just can't seem to get itself together enough to notify the FBI.

Ah well; at least they wanted to serve their country.  Maybe they just couldn't.  Old and fat? 

By the way -- regarding "old and fat" -- some of them have been too old, but they are not that fat.  I'm getting kind of old myself - so I'm not knocking old people - but there could be better alignment of skills of the top leadership with the requirements of running the most sophisticated information management enterprise in the world. As we have been reminded quitely frequently lately -- competence in key government post matters...

The CIA did a lot of reprehensible (it's in fashion so I'll use it too) things. But the things Ellen cites--operational stuff from the exploding-cigar crowd--is not what Cheney objects to. He and his buds despise the analytical people there because they don't like their meat raw and bloody the way he does. And as far as they're concerned, Brewster Jennings, technically in ops, might as well have been analytical because their job was to do wussy things like track WMD shipments and get them seized, not to make things go bang. Nobody's going to miss them, you bet.

On the other hand, bush and his family, and Cheney too, can't get enough of ops. Ops did all that great regime-change stuff Ellen mentioned, plus a whole bunch of other things they can't tell anyone about. Porter Goss, I think, is there to destroy the analysts and to unleash the exploding cigars.

 

Looking at this from afar I'm just not convinced outing Plame was the best way to get back at Wilson. I keep on saying to myself, "His wife's a CIA covert op. So what?"

There's something missing from this story. Wilson was well-qualified to analyse the situation in Niger. His wife was well-placed to recommend him, or validate his credentials (take your pick). Niger was no Tropical Paradise. It was no perk of office to go there and quiz the locals about yellowcake. There's no shame in any of this for Wilson or Plame, or the CIA (which was, apparently, asked to check out the rumors of alleged Niger yellowcake sales to Saddam).

Wilson was a bona fide American hero. He stood up to Saddam at the gates of the Baghdad embassy in 1991. He was rewarded with a medal for it, and the praise of GB senior. When you think about it, he was the perfect guy to send: indisputably competent to do the job, didn't like Saddam and well-versed in Western African politics, with a connected wife in the relevant area of expertise.

If the WH thought they could slime Wilson with the Plame connection they were wrong. Only wingnuts still believe there WAS a sale to Saddam pending. The whole thing has completely backfired... butonly if you accept the meme that the aim was to embarass Wilson by suggesting his little wifey got diddums the job. Maybe the success was elsewhere? Maybe they just wanted to shut Plame and her shop down, for godd?

If that was the aim, they've been 100% successful.

. The point raised that the CIA did alot of stupid things on behalf of past White Houses can't be denied, they also took the fall, when those things blew up in everyones faces. I saw something today, I forget where that the Bushites were upset that the CIA missed the 9/11 attacks. "Bin Laden determined to attack...." seemed pretty good, given the nature of the enemy. I guess W and Condi were needing his e-mail address.

Bill Moyers has a post on the HuPo on the current landscape. He hits one of his important themes. These guys hate government, they came to destroy it, it wound it, to leave it crippled, and bankrupt. They have been engaged among themselves for the last 25 years in a race to the extremes of their party. Just look at Jean Schmidt, that's one scary bitch.

But the things Ellen cites--operational stuff from the exploding-cigar crowd--is not what Cheney objects to.  Altoid

Agreed, and I take the blame for tossing them out as down-and-dirty exemplars.  But behind each "op" -- per doctrine -- is analysis that supports it.  If you don't approve of the op, you'll probably not agree with the analysis.

Ex.  A tiny Guatemala Communist Party was one of many parties that supported Arbenz.  The CIA's analysts viewed the events in Guatemala as part of a "global pattern of Communist activity."  Therefore, Operation PBSUCCESS.

I won't get into CIA sovietological experts' goof-ups

There's no reason to let the analysts off the hook. 

I think the importance of the Plame case is due to the fact that what Joe Wilson reported on, if Iraq was buying yellow cake or not, was the key argument that Bush was using to invade Iraq. It all goes right back to WMD. This is why it was so important to discredit anyone who got in their way and it is also why the whole thing is still important today. It was Bush’s main argument for war.


Since Bush kept putting pressure on the CIA to come up with “evidence” for WMD and a connection between Saddam and al Queda it is laughable that they would then turn around and blame the CIA for giving them information that they then personally cherry picked for their own pleasure and enjoyment in order to take the country to the land of Oz.


Anyone know how to get back to Kansas?

The Team B concept petey mentions above would do well to be left in the ash heap. That said, competitive threat assessment is not a bad idea. The problem arises when the groups appointed to take an alternate look at the information is created with a particular outlook in mind.

The Cheney operation was created specifically to collect evidence and arguments that backed their view of the world. Their operation was the exact opposite of an analysis unit.

As for the "everyone knew Iraq had WMD" line, the argument has always revolved around nuclear WMD, the "mushroom cloud" argument. The world knew of Saddam's WMD programs because inspectors went in and assessed the programs. They returned before the beginning of the war and found little evidence of a general WMD program and no evidence of a nuclear operation.

Chem and bio weapons are nasty and should be illegal, however, they are not a strategic threat and should certainly do not rise to the status of casus beli.

The WMD argument has been a canard all along. The President had decided to invade Iraq, all that was needed was the proper stick with which to wrench political cover from of Congress. That came in the form of an enormous p.r. campaign followed by a vote that many Congressmen which they could take back.

I don't think there are any illusions about the CIA on this site but when they provide good information/analysis and it is ignored because it is not the answer the adminstration or the VP wanted then we should all have a problem even good old self described for our purposes "lefties" like Ellen 

Ellen uses "us lefties" perhaps for comical effect. It would be more convincing if her posts honestly and simply made the conservative points she likes to make.

Murray Waas has been on a roll. I was impressed with this most recent article in that timing was impeccable. The VP is back out of the bunker and dissembling while being totally indignant of being finally called out for such.  Not only was the adminstration told that there was no 9/11- Saddam connection but in fact Saddam was intensely vigilent about religous zealots like the 9/11 crowd.


"One of the more intriguing things that Bush was told during the briefing was that the few credible reports of contacts between Iraq and Al Qaeda involved attempts by Saddam Hussein to monitor the terrorist group. Saddam viewed Al Qaeda as well as other theocratic radical Islamist organizations as a potential threat to his secular regime. At one point, analysts believed, Saddam considered infiltrating the ranks of Al Qaeda with Iraqi nationals or even Iraqi intelligence operatives to learn more about its inner workings, according to records and sources."Murrray Waas

My take on the outing of Plame is that it was a desperate attempt to conceal the fact that Cheney had been briefed on Joe Wilson's trip to Niger IMMEDIATELY after Wilson's return to the US -- in March '02.

That is EXACTLY what Wilson claimed in his NYT OpEd, and if true, it would be strong evidence that the "smoking gun ... mushroom cloud" hysteria (many months later) was a willful and deliberate BushCo lie.

Recall that the administration's reaction to Wilson's OpEd was primarily focused on denying that Cheney had any knowledge of Wilson's trip. However, no one could possibly believe such a story if Joe Wilson was dispatched to Niger in response to an inquiry by Cheney. If the VP asked the question, there can be no doubt that the  VP got the answer. Promptly!

Thus, they needed a cover story to explain why Wilson went to Niger without the knowledge of anyone in the administration.  Valerie just happened to be handy -- she sent hubby on "a junket" ...uh, maybe because he needed  some frequent flier miles.

Not for revenge, not to discredit Wilson's (un)findings, but to conceal the fact that the yellowcake bu__sh__! was a pack of DELIBERATE lies.

Col Bat


"An awkward, unscientific lie is often as ineffectual as the truth."
-- Mark Twain

In what sense can "reports detailing purported evidence of links between Al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein" be described as "encouraging"?

Very disturbing. 

We had one knowledge base before the Congressional vote forced Saddam to blink and readmit Inspectors and another four months later. That is the doughnut hole and one in which exactly one person was strutting around insisting "the decision has not been made" and "I get to decide".


Congress gave the keys to the car to Bush in Fall 2002, he started the car in March 2003. In between was a lifetime of intelligence, much of it gained right on the ground in Iraq. Not everything has swirled down the Memory Hole. This is Bush's War. And at one point he was bragging about that exact point.


"I get to decide". He did. And he doesn't get a "Share the Blame, Get Out of Jail (Iraq) Card" here. Becuase you can bet he wouldn't have shared the credit if it had come out the way the PNAC boys bet it would.

Well, if you're determined to start a war and need to "cherry pick' the evidence since most of it doesn't back up what you want to hear - oh, wait, - " 5 deferment Dick" might think this is a despicable thing to think. I wouldn't want to upset such a noble public figure (and, hopefully, future war criminal). What a "tortuous" line of reasoning.

... not to mention Operation Mongoose and involvement at some level in the JFK assassination and coverup.

... of course subverting Arbenz's election has led to tens of thousands of people (mostly Indians) being slaughtered over the decades (all originally for the benefit of United Fruit) and the Dulles family - the Cold war angle was a convenient cover -Guatemala wasn't exactly a big threat to the USA.

... but let's not deny that OPS has done some really rotten stuff. Check out the involvement of the Operation Mongoose group in the JFK assassination and cover-up.

Yup

Revolt of the Professionals...always thus

"... but let's not deny that OPS has done some really rotten stuff."


No doubt.  My point is that the CIA is like a gun - it's value neutral.  What matters is who wields the gun.


What the CIA did during the Eisenhower administration is the responsibility of the Eisenhower administration, not the CIA.  Most of those operations wouldn't have come off if it had been a Truman or Stevenson administration.  (Truman had already vetoed plans to fuck around in Iran.)


"Check out the involvement of the Operation Mongoose group in the JFK assassination and cover-up."


My reading of the coup in Dallas is that the operation came out of the Pentagon, not Langley.

This thesis (Cheney wanting to "get back" at CIA) makes sense and is not really new.


The narrative of personal retaliation arose first from the Sept 2003 Post story, based on the quote from a "senior administration official," who was opposed to the leak -- likely Powell or Armitage but possibly Tenet.


It was at this point that Wilson gave his "frog march" quote and claimed it was a personal attack on his wife. Which made for good copy but not much sense.

You know, I tossed this whole mess around in my mind yesterday. I reached the point that I was willing to accept that perhaps it wasn't blatant lying. That it was all a matter of the kind of incompetance we've grown to expect from this administration. That they rushed to war based on flimsy evidence at a time when there was no immediacy. They whipped up the rhetoric, taking those "maybes" and "potentials" cited in intelligence reports to assert "clear evidence" of WMDs and al Qaeda links. I was happy to accept incompetance as good enough to justify continued criticism of the administration.

No more. It now becomes apparent they shopped for a friendly, loyal stooge who would tell them what they wanted to hear by forming the secret intelligence group outside the CIA, with Feith as the leader. In other words, they didn't tell Feith to gather intelligence, they told him to find something to prove their already formulated case, and like a good protege, he did just that.

The most chilling words I've read are those scribbled by Cheney on the Feith report: "This is very good indeed … Encouraging … Not like the crap we are all so used to getting out of CIA."

Good for what? If the CIA wasn't giving them what they needed to justify war, then it must be crap? My impression is they weren't even concerned about verifying the Feith information as long as it was "encouraging." And they continued to ignore the CIA's claim that the Prague meeting with Atta was impossible, even though the CIA could definitively show it was not possible.

NO doubt about it. They lied.

If you don't approve of the op, you'll probably not agree with the analysis.

This doesn't necessarily follow.  After all, to take a recent (if non-covert) example, I could have agreed with an analysis that "Saddam is a nasty son of a bitch who controls a lot of oil reserves," but not with Bush's proposed response, "let's invade Iraq."

Most of the examples you and others give, I'll note, date to the 1950s and the glory days of the Dulles brothers.  The conspicuous exception is Soviet economic analysis in the 80s, but therein lies a tale.

The CIA may indeed have "misunderestimated" the economic decline of the USSR, but put it in context.  In the late 70s and early 80s, the CIA caught no end of grief from the proto-neocons for failing to present a sufficiently scary picture of Soviet capabilities and intentions.  Remember the Committee on the Present Danger and "Team B?"

I suspect that the CIA analysts were doing about as well as they could in presenting an honest assessment of the Soviets in the face of relentless pressure from much the same crowd that hyped and twisted the intel about Iraq.

-- Rick Robinson 

 

 

My thought exactly, dzonko. The answer, of course, is: in the sense that it provides justification for a course of action which one is already inclined to pursue -- namely, lauching a war against Saddam's regime.

MY’s quotation relies on a statement by “one former senior administration official who knows most of the principals involved.”  It’s not exactly difficult to find other “former senior administration official[s] who know[] most of the principals involved” who will say something completely different. At least two posts on this page start out with “My take on the outing …”  And many other posts give their takes.


Not a single one of these people has actually talked to Cheney, et al. about why they leaked the info, or even anyone who talked to someone who talked to someone who ... talked to them.
 
Pure speculation of what was in the minds of Cheney et al. might be loads of fun.  It enables the speculator to ascribe remarkably Evil intentions to Cheney, et al., and thereby further enable the speculator to feel ever so Noble.
 
But it’s pure speculation, period, and therefore generally it’s almost undoubtedly complete twaddle.

Is it still possible to defend Cheney's honesty on matters of pre-war intelligence?


As he launches increasingly rabid attacks on his critics, I'm really starting to wonder what makes this guy tick.  What went on inside this guy's skull when he circumvented the CIA to promote the most paranoid estimates available of Iraqi weapons and terror ties, and what is he thinking now as he tries to blame everything on "bad intelligence" from the CIA?


I think the key to understanding Cheney lies in his recent speech where he emphasizes that the "burden of proof" was on Saddam to prove that he had no weapons of mass destruction.  


Given the impossibility of proving a negative, and the lunacy of this guilty-until-proven-innocent attitude, this comment makes it abundantly clear that war in Iraq was probably a foregone conclusion on 9/12/01.  But more importantly, this shows us that Cheney viewed his own role in the leadup to war as that of a prosecutor in a kangaroo court.


He never had any interest in developing an accurate intelligence estimate to promote an honest national conversation about the case for war.  The Bush Administration had decided to take out Saddam, and Cheney was intent on building the strongest possible case against Saddam.  Every damning piece of evidence, however unreliable, was included.  Every doubt, caveat, and piece of exculpatory evidence was sanitized from the evidence presented to the public.  He intended to convince Congress, the elite media, and the rest of America to invade Iraq.  No more, no less.


From this particular frame of mind, Cheney has done nothing dishonest or wrong.  He did his job successfully, made his case, and the suckers bought it.


This runs much deeper than spin and manipulation.  This is about raw power.  In this neocon worldview, the President of the United States leads the world by fiat, and assembles evidence only when necessary to convince people that he's right.  The intelligence was never intended to be used as the basis for a rational conclusion about whether Saddam was a genuine threat.  It was all just evidence for the prosecution.


And THAT is why these people are dangerous.

I'm sorry to see that this story has not been more widely spread by the MSM - perhaps everyone is too busy loosening their belts for tomorrow's Thanksgiving celebrations.  IMO it's the smoking gun - Bush knowingly told the American people something that his intelligence assets did not believe to be true.  More importantly he misled Congress on this key issue which is grounds for impeachment if it can be proven.

I think all of us are perhaps missing the obvious here: this was not so much a strike against Wilson/Plame as it was against the CIA, and more specifically, Brewster Jennings, because they were too effective in stopping WMDs in Iraq. Thus taking away the primary rationale for the invasion.


I expected BushCo to plant WMDs, and then "discover" them. Why didn't they?


From the Wayne Madsen Report http://www.waynemadsenreport.com/


    November 11, 2005 -- New aspect of Valerie Plame/Brewster Jennings exposure revealed. According to U.S. intelligence sources, the White House exposure of  Valerie Plame and her Brewster Jennings & Associates was intended to retaliate against  the CIA's work in limiting the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. WMR has  reported in the past on this aspect of the scandal. In addition to identifying the involvement of individuals in the White House who were close to key players in nuclear  proliferation, the CIA Counter-Proliferation Division prevented the shipment of binary VX  nerve gas from Turkey into Iraq in November 2002. The Brewster Jennings network in Turkey  was able to intercept this shipment which was intended to be hidden in Iraq and later used  as evidence that Saddam Hussein was in possession of weapons of mass destruction. U.S.  intelligence sources revealed that this was a major reason the Bush White House targeted  Plame and her network.


CIA counter-proliferation  network prevented a WMD "salting" operation by Bush White House in Iraq.

Gen Cabell had a foot in both camps. If memory serves I believe he was the Pentagon's liason to the CIA. Allen Dulles dumped as head of CIA yet put on the Warren Commision, and Richard Helms, head of the Operations division at the time, along with David Atlee Philips (Oswald's handler at the CIA, are people that I would have loved to question about all this.

This strikes me as a particularly easy talking point to refute. Regardless of what 'everybody' might have thought, it was this administration, and this administration only that decided to attack Iraq preemptively, in abrogation of long-established 'rules' for a nation going to war against another. It was a calculated gamble on the part of BushCo, and if you sidestep the question of whether they were willfully medacious or quite honestly convinced, you're still left with the fact that they were the ones who made the decision. They were the ones that decided the 'threat' was serious enough to warrant immediate military action.

As a side note, I do believe it's shameful that Congress basically shirked it's enumerated Constitutional responsibilities in giving the President a blank check to do as he saw fit (i.e., sidestepping a formal declaration of war); I think the debate would have been far more meaty had they not. And of course it leaves a lot of legislators in a "I was for it before I was against it position" - but that kind of harsh spotlight is probably what is deserved by political cowards in light of an issu