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Bob Graham on the NIE

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Former Senator Bob Graham confirmed in the Post today what I'd argued earlier:


There were troubling aspects to this 90-page document. While slanted toward the conclusion that Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction stored or produced at 550 sites, it contained vigorous dissents on key parts of the information, especially by the departments of State and Energy. Particular skepticism was raised about aluminum tubes that were offered as evidence Iraq was reconstituting its nuclear program. As to Hussein's will to use whatever weapons he might have, the estimate indicated he would not do so unless he was first attacked.


But there's more.

Graham also reports that Tenet confirmed under questioning that none of the information in the NIE came from sources inside Iraq: "Most of the alleged intelligence came from Iraqi exiles or third countries, all of which had an interest in the United States' removing Hussein, by force if necessary."


Graham further confirms the point that the unclassified NIE released by the CIA only days before the Iraq vote bore little resemblance to the fully caveated classified version. But we, the public, of course did not know that.


So why didn't those could have known call the administration on it? Is it because no more than six senators and a handful of House members bothered reading past the 5-page executive summary of the NIE before casting what may have been the most important vote of their congressional careers?


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In an exchange with Sen. Kerry in the Senate last Friday, Sen. Kyl (R-AR) still maintained -- at this late date, after all we have learned -- that for all we know those aluminum tubes may indeed have been intended for use in a centrifuge to produce or process refined uranium.

But my understanding is that all of the experts who truly know something about this matter have said without question that this was not a possible use for those tubes.

I want to talk with Bob Graham here in the Cafe.

Anyone else want to talk with Bob Graham here? Sign up.

So why didn't those could have known call the administration on it?

Because they would have been instantly crucified by rabid partisans, a complicit media and money-driven political parties.

The almost complete collapse of opposition to a blatant power-grab was one of the most disappointing things I have ever witnessed.

--Emma

Regarding the aluminum tubes, do a google search on "Houston Wood" "aluminum tubes" to find out what one of the world's formost experts on uranium centrifuge enrichment technology had to say...

 

For those who don't want to wade through a bunch of google results, here's a representative sampling of Dr. Wood's comments:

 “I guess I was angry, that’s the best way to describe my emotions. I was angry at that,” says Wood, who is among the world’s authorities on uranium enrichment by centrifuge. He found the tubes couldn’t be what the CIA thought they were. They were too heavy, three times too thick and certain to leak.

"Wasn't going to work. They would have failed," says Wood, who reached that conclusion back in 2001.

irishkg, I would like to very much.  I would like to commend him for his courage and for sticking with the truth.


There were news reports on those who dissented from the administration's view, sometimes on the inside pages, but I certainly knew about them.  That was a major reason that I did not support the war, along with the certainty that Saddam had nothing to do with 9/11.

... complete moral collapse when given an opportunity to prevent a war of aggression. This whole episode is a disgrace.

As the kids I work with at summer camp would say,"Me! Me! Me!"

...so Kyl is either thick-headed or afraid to admit the truth because he might lose his chance to be presented with a Medal of Freedom by Bush.

actually, there's a third option: kyl (and so many others) don't care about the truth, only about defending their position.

I want to talk with Bob Graham here in the Cafe.

Anyone else want to talk with Bob Graham here? Sign up. 

Yes!  Me too!  (Ancient AOL tradition...)

 

I'm sure that Graham was far from being the only one in congress who had misgivings about strength of the NIE's conclusions regarding Iraq's WMD capabilities.  Many in congress voted for the war despite their doubts about whether Iraq had WMDs.  My own congressman told me as much in explaining that he voted for the arguments made by the neo-cons.

So now we are having this debate about the misuse of intelligence.  Of course, Bush misused the intelligence.  Indeed, the last thing Bushco wanted was accurate intelligence.  What they wanted war and what they got was war. 

The problem with the debate over the misuse of intelligence is that it is like chasing one's tail.  The moment you pin the other side down there will be an admission that the WMD claim was merely a pretext for other compelling reasons for war.
Fighting this fight is like fighting on shifting sand. 

We need to figure out how to get them to chase their tails while we push forward with our agenda. 

By now the Medal of Honor is so demeaned, who would want one?

The fact that most of the Senators and Congressmen didn't read beyond the 5 page executive summary is an embarassment. Given the fact they were given the entire NIE with only a few days to sift through the entire report softens my stance a bit, but the fact that the majority of Dems in the legislative body didn't feel like it was important enough to read so that they could base their vote on the findings, is very disturbing.

Ivo, you previously excerpted this from your book here at TPM Cafe:

 

The claim that the Bush administration knowingly misled the country into war overlooks one key fact: American policy makers believed that Iraq possessed weapons of massive destruction and posed a threat to the United States long before Bush took office. Bill Clinton's policy toward Baghdad proceeded from the belief that Iraq had and was willing to use weapons of mass destruction. "If Saddam rejects peace and we have to use force, our purpose is clear," Clinton said in one of his many public comments on Iraq. "We want to seriously diminish the threat posed by Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program."  Even in 2003, France, Germany, and other countries opposed to war did not question claims that Iraq possessed chemical and biological weapons or that it wanted to acquire nuclear weapons. They instead disputed the significance of Iraq's programs, the extent of Baghdad's progress, and the likelihood that Saddam would cooperate with terrorists.

At the heart of why so many people got Iraq's weapons program wrong lay a massive intelligence failure with roots in when information was collected and, more worrisome, in how it was analyzed. While top administration officials frequently claimed that their intelligence was current, most of the information that analysts pored over in 2002 and 2003 had been collected years earlier. Richard Kerr, a former deputy director of central intelligence who headed an internal CIA panel that reviewed prewar intelligence analysis, concluded that the available information consisted of "a base of hard evidence growing out of the lead-up to the first war [in 1991], the first war itself, and then the inspections process," which ended in 1998. "There were pieces of new information but not a lot of hard information, and so the products that dealt with WMD were based heavily on analysis drawn out of that earlier period."  In fact, after UN weapons inspectors left Iraq in 1998 the CIA only had four reporting sources inside Iraq, none of whom had access to or knowledge of Iraqi weapons activities. "We did not ourselves penetrate the inner sanctum," Tenet acknowledged in February 2004. "Our agents were on the periphery of WMD activities."

 

I think you are trying to argue both ways on this.  Today you are quoting Graham and seem to agree with him that Congress did not have the same intel and that the NIE was misleading.  Your previous excerpt seems to deny that the Bush administration was knowingly misleading us.

After the above excerpt you did have some graphs about the NIE:

 

The intelligence community conveyed its uncertainties in its assessments of Iraq's weapons programs before 2002. For instance, in 2001 the CIA concluded that Iraq "probably continued at least low-level theoretical R&D" on nuclear weapons technologies and that "Baghdad may be attempting to acquire materials that could aid in reconstituting its nuclear weapons program."  With respect to chemical weapons, the conservative Defense Intelligence Agency concluded even as late as September 2002 that "there is no reliable information on whether Iraq is producing and stockpiling chemical weapons, or where Iraq has--or will--establish its chemical warfare agent production facilities."  Similar caveats appeared in the CIA's assessment of Iraq's bioweapons program. "We are concerned that Iraq may again be producing biological warfare agents."  There were worries and concerns, but nothing definitive. And the intelligence community made sure that policymakers knew the difference.

The caveats disappeared in the summer of 2002. The more categorical tone was especially evident in the National Intelligence Estimate that was produced in two, hurried weeks that September. Stewart Cohen, the acting chairman of the National Intelligence Council who oversaw the drafting of the estimate, wanted to avoid a document full of qualifications.

 

Perhaps you were just trying to fill in details earlier that many in the public had missed, but you seemed to be dancing around whether the Bush administration knowingly misled  us.  As I wrote here, I think the administration lay behind the changes in intel in mid 2002, like the NIE mentioned above, and that it knowingly abused its authority to get tainted info.

 

By now the Medal of Honor is so demeaned, who would want one?
janeboatler

You mean the Medal of Freedom, the Medal of Honor still requires that you risk your life under fire to save the lives of others, oh most people don't want a shot at that one either.

Because they would have been instantly crucified by rabid partisans, a complicit media and money-driven political parties.

The almost complete collapse of opposition to a blatant power-grab was one of the most disappointing things I have ever witnessed.
Vote your conscince or quit complaining, you can't whine about the names you would've been called if you voted the way you should have, that just makes you look that much weaker... the Dem's need to start searching the "farm team" for some talent because to claim in 2008 that "I voted for the war, even though I was against it, because I didn't want to be called names" isn't much of a rally cry.

SFCWallace, You are correct; I was mistaken.  As Ann Landers used to say, thirty lashes with a wet noodle for me.  My apologies to the recipients of the Medal of Honor.  In no way would I want to dishonor our brave service members who received this honor.

According to a recent article in The Nation it's a crime to lie to Congress. We need another Patrick Fitzgerald type tpo investigate this.

I imagine "Brownie" will be in line for one someday. The really scary thing is I'm not sure if I'm joking.

... especially the chickenhawks who started this war.

Don't forget that virtually none of them read the Patriot Act either.  What are they DOING up there?  I know that they have time to meet with lobbyists, and go on junkets, and stuff like that.  Couldn't they at LEAST get aides to read the bills that they have to sign?  Couldn't they get them to highlight really important parts of them, and bring it to their attention?  Who has a job that they could do so haphazardly and not be fired, other than politicians?

An additional question: who redacted the NIE?
As I understand it, the reason for redacting the NIE is to remove classified or sensitive material. 
But, as I understand the NIE from autumn 2002, the differences between the redacted and unredacted versions were more related to balance than sensitive data. Why, for example, is the fact that there were dissenting views to various allegations a sensitive issue? 
The question I have is who did the redacting; more specifically, who gave the redactors their marching orders?

I've seen the Oct 2002 NIE and its Cliff's Notes counterpart.  The difference between the two is night and day.  The Dems need to assert that the intelligence they received did not contain the footnotes/caveats that were abundantly clear in the full NIE. Who assembled the small NIE brief? 

The Dems also need to give a bit more context regarding their vote to give Bush the authority to go to war.  They did NOT vote to invade Iraq, they voted to give Bush the authority to send our troops into Iraq or any other country he saw fit. 

... complete moral collapse when given an opportunity to prevent a war of aggression. This whole episode is a disgrace.

Is this a possible explanation? If the Democrats in Congress had called the administration on their lies, they would have been saying that Bush was lying to Congress in order to justify an illegal invasion which would cost thousands of American lives. That would be a demand for impeachment, and at a time when the country was still shook up over 9/11. So, rather than go that direction, the decided to give him a reluctant benefit of the doubt. I can almost emphasize with them if that was their thinking - but only almost.

So why didn't those could have known call the administration on it? Is it because no more than six senators and a handful of House members bothered reading past the 5-page executive summary of the NIE before casting what may have been the most important vote of their congressional careers?

They didn't call him on it because they didn't care.  Despite the intense and highly politicized current concern with the issue of prewar WMD intelligence, the state of Iraq's WMD program was of marginal importance in driving the United States to make war against Iraq in early 2003.

Back in 2002, leading Democratic politicians and operatives were convinced that the majority of the public was hungry for more war, anywhere, so long as it was against "terrorists" (i.e. Arabs and/or Muslims).  The President also clearly wanted war, and at the time the President was enormously popular with the public.  These leaders reasoned that the war was going to happen, one way or another, and assumed that it was likely to go very well, and lead to a quick and easy triumph.

The envisioned endless lines of happy, cheering Iraqis waving flowers and US flags, and bestowing candies and kisses upon beaming American soldiers. They imagined that the supporters of the war would be able to share somewhat in the glory of the victory, while its critics would be tainted with a yellow ignominy.  So they seized the opportunity to leap onto the bandwagon for the upcoming victory parade, a parade that was certain to assemble itself in short order.

Democrats were also terrified by the vision of G.W. Bush, the self-described "War President" enjoying a permanent Caesarian wave of unbeatable public support and loyalty, lasting well into 2004 and beyond, so long as he was successful in extending the prevailing climate of wartime arousal, mobilization and anticipation.  They hoped that by giving him his war quickly, and getting it over with, they could begin by the fall of 2003 to turn the public mood and debate away from national security - the Democrats' perceived weak suit - and toward their perceived strong suit in domestic policy.  They wanted to do to Bush the Younger what they had done to Bush the Elder: satisy the manic and lusty public war fever, in the process extinguish it, and then beat their opponent on their own turf rather than his.

Finally, war against Iraq was the natural culmination of a policy which Democrats themselves had fully supported throughout the late nineties.  The Clinton administration had steadily moved toward a frank policy of regime change, and had tried various, increasingly desperate moves to drive Saddam from power. The administration had pursued a policy of harsh sanctions and no-fly zones in their growing zeal to drive Saddam from power - underlined by Madeline Albright's now-notorious assertion about how killing hundreds of thousands of Iraqis was a price worth paying to get rid of Saddam.  The US had spent more than a decade softening up Saddam's regime by cutting off his military supply lines and encouraging Kurdish and Shiite separatism and revolt.  And most of the Democratic Senate leaders had already voted for the Iraq Accountability Act.  So for many of them, the attitude was "let's get on with it, and finish this job".

Far from being concerned about the "threat" of Iraq and its supposedly horrible weapons of mass destruction, most of our leaders in Washington knew Saddam was a defanged and declawed has-been, and his administration a debilitated shell of its former self.  We beat Iraq handily in 1991 when they were a much more formidable enemy.  So why wouldn't do the same this time?  It would be a very nice little war, one that would save the mighty United States from the humiliation of failure following ten years of scrambling defiance from a petty dictator in a vital region.

All of these recriminations and second thoughts about the WMD intelligence completely fail to reckon with the spirit of the times that prevailed three and four years ago.  I doubt even one Washington leader in ten had her or his mind altered by something they either did or did not learn about Iraq's dread weapons.  The WMD debate, the UN fiasco: those were just show pieces.

Recall the discussion in Act I of Shakespeare's Henry V about the Salique law.  Some lawyers come before the young King to make the case about his claims in France.  Shakespeare portrays these lawyerly disquisitions as excruciatingly boring and pedantic, and in the end as only dimly related to the motivations of the characters.  These antique laws serve only as a pretext for the war.  A much more important motivation is for young King Harry to make a show of strength, to satisfy the ambitions of his noble loyalists at court, to prove his mettle and defend his honor against a personal insult he receives from the French Dauphin, and to show his potential rivals that they may not infer from his notoriously dissolute past that he is a weakling.

Voting to give Bush a blank check is one of the biggest mistakes in the history of our country. How could they have been so dimwitted or intimated that they would cave in to Bush? It wasn't exactly rocket science to figure that Bush, Rove, Cheney, etc. were hellbent on war by October 2002.

You'd think a little detail like an obvious warmongering fraud of a President hellbent on starting a war might have attracted their attention!

I think the Salic Law argument's fun and interesting, but I take your point.  You might add that we're getting close to the time of the cutting-of-prisoners'-throats of Act IV, Scene vii.  Happens in every war.

I don't know what the phrase "blank check" means in the context of invading and occupying Iraq, but Presidents have had the unilateral right to use military force to invade other countries since at least 1950 and have done so in Korea, Lebanon, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Dominican Republic, Lebanon again, Grenada, Iraq, Panama, and Iraq again.

While Presidents may choose to come before the Congress for the purpose of forestalling later criticism, Congress and the Constitution(?) does not require that they do so. 

Seems to me the War Powers Act says after 90 days they have to get Congress's permission. Bush got it ahead of time. That's what I mean by a blank check - abandoning Congresss's Constitional power to declare war just as happened with the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution in 1964. We are not supposed to be in a dictatorship where one person decides if we go to war. "Eternal vigilance" was abandoned and now over 2090 American families have paid the ultimate price for such irresponsibilty.

Please note that my main man (woman?) has rated me a 1 for having the temerity to suggest that someone such as "5 deferment Dick" - who was all for waging the Vietnam war to the last drop of someone else's blood - is a chicken hawk. Oh, how can I ever repent for the mortal sin of describing reality. At least W backed up his support for the Vietnam War by going over there and fighting - oh wait Gore and Kerry were over there - my mistake. I feel so chastened now - NOT!

Constitution does require Congress to approve a war, but Congress does not.

I think that Democrats correctly concluded that the public was thirsty for a war.  Kind of beats me what made a change -- gasoline prices, the fact that the war does not go anywhere, the fact that we are handing power to pro-Iranian clerics?  In any case, two elections in a row were victorious to GOP basically on the strength of pre- and post- war fervor and  generalized paranoia (understandable paranoia, I should add).

However, the issue of misleading the Congress is not a red herring.  What seems to happen was that non-cretins in Congress, and that includes a vast majority of Democrats, noticed that the Administration's case included numerous lies.  What they could not phatom, however, is that the case isa complete lie, with no shred of truth behind it.

Did Administration lie to Congress (and to everybody else)?  Absolutely, especially about nukes and al-Qaeda.  Were Democrats aware?  To a limited degree, yes.  However, the complete hollowness of the Administration case was clear only to few, and to VERY few before the inspections progressed. 

9/11
9/11
9/11
trrrrst
trrrrst
God Bless America.

Two points, quickly, in between grading exams, one question of which concerns the deficiences of the Articles of Confederation and how the Constitution remedied those...which is not completely disconnected from my second point.

First, janeboatler is right again: those of us who were paying attention knew that the WMD argument was hooey even then.

Second, yes, the powers of the presidency have grown in the last half-century, and presidents have indeed taken us to war without the permission of congress.  But one thing has not changed: congress has the power of the purse, and BushCo can not legally spend a dime without congressional approval.  Their abdication of responsiblity is as complete as it is craven.

A thought just occured to me: do they not read the bills they pass anymore because they know Bush doesn't read anything either?

I am still stewing over Jean Schmidt.  Just when you think the Repugnacans can stoop no lower, they do, spectacularly.

Bushco delenda est.

I am waiting for a couple of those in Congress who did not read the whole NIE to admit that they knew that this NIE, while mandated by Congress, was in fact thrown together in just a few weeks. Will anyone admit that they basically knew the Administration did not have a solid consensus intelligence case?

Whether anyone comes forward to say this, it is shameful so few read the NIE.

Right after 911, Bush only allowed the congressional majority and minority leaders as well as the chairmen and ranking members from a few congressional committees access to classified information.  Since the full NIE was classified those individuals could not divulge the information legally.  The summary of the NIE wasn't classifed but it was redacted of all information that did not support a strong case for war.  I believe it is correc that all the democrats in the know voted against the authorization. 

Please note that my main man (woman?) has rated me a 1 for having the temerity to suggest that someone such as "5 deferment Dick" - who was all for waging the Vietnam war to the last drop of someone else's blood - is a chicken hawk.
No, we were discussing the Medal of Honor, and the Medal of Freedom and the differance between them and you jumped in with a "chicken hawk" referance that had nothing to do with anything...call anyone you want names, I'll go back and forth with you all day (as you have seen in other threads) however, keep your "chickenhawk" comments out of discussions about the Medal of Honor, and you wont get rated as innapropriate.

As far as I can tell, the unlimited power of the President since 1950 to wage war has gone far beyond what the Constitution allows.  I just checked the Constitution, and I can't seem to find anything about the President's ability to wage war.

But then, do we have a Constitution if it can't be enforced?

 

It may be that the author now realizes that he was wrong earlier. If so, I hope that he  comes clean and admits his error.

The Bush Administration may have believed the Iraq had WMD, but that doesn't change the fact that they distorted and manipulated intelligence and lied to us about the intelligence.

By analogy, a cop may firmly believe that a suspect committed the crime. That cannot mitigate his guilt if he plants the suspects fingerprints. Nor does it mitigate any guilt if the cop knows that the fingerprints were planted but still tells us that the fingerprints prove the suspect's guilt.

If the cop knows that the fingerprints were planted, yet believes that the fingerprints prove the suspect's guilt, he is beyond incompetent. I haven't actually seen this kind of thinking on the part of cops, but I have seen it on the part of lawyers and judges. The Bush Administration may well have this kind of schizophrenia as well.

I believe the cowardice was highest in the 48 hours before the invasion when there were serious grounds to resist Bush's required letters, as I said here .  I admit the political climate was tough.  But here we are 2.5 years later, 2000+ deaths later, over $200B later, with a horrific mess on our hands. 

 

However, I disagree that the original vote for the resolution is as it has been portrayed.  THere are good, defensible reasons to have supported that as a means to get the inspectors in.  I would not have voted for that bill as a senator for the reasons best articulated by Sen. Byrd. HOwever, I would have supported a two stage bill, first calling for potential backing of force to generate inspections,  then a resolution to allow war with rapid senate approval if the inspections were negative.  BushCo of course realizing that they would perhaps not get the outcome they wanted fought that off.