Jordan Bombings and the Rumsfeld Terrorism Metric
There still is no better metric for the struggle against terrorism than that laid out back in October 2003 by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld: "Every day," Rumsfeld said, we need to ask ourselves, "are we capturing, killing or deterring and dissuading more terrorists than the radical clerics and madrassas are recruiting, training and deploying against us?"
To be sure, even if this calculus were net positive it wouldn't take away from the tragedy of lives lost to terrorists, as with the 58 people killed in the Jordan hotel bombings last week. Worse, though, is that we once again see that in ongoing strategic terms the calculus is net negative - and not just because of what the radical clerics and madrassas are doing but in significant and direct ways also because of the Bush Iraq policy.
The one positive to come out of this
The one positive to come out of this is the Jordanian people's outrage and mounting antagonism towards al Qaeda. A public opinion survey showed that whereas al Qaeda once had over 60% approval in Jordan, now "more than 87% said they considered al Qaeda a terrorist organization, and almost as many said that al Qaeda's acts of terror did not represent Islam." So al Qaeda is doing its own discrediting. The Jordanian people are showing their own pragmatism and pride --- nationalist, cultural, religious. This type of development is crucial to the delegitimizing of jihadist terrorism within the Arab and Islamic world's own norms and culture.
But Jordanians also understand that the bombing was the most direct fallout yet of the Iraq war outside of Iraq. The suicide bombers were Iraqis. They apparently were motivated by the killings of relatives by U.S. forces. They crossed a border that the United States has yet to come close to securing and drove right into Amman. The July 2005 London bombings were in part prompted by Iraq, and so too the March 2004 Madrid bombings, but nothing yet had been as direct as this. The Jordanians see al Qaeda as the problem, but they are not seeing the United States as the solution.
The strength of the United States' global position long has been heavily based on the belief of other countries that cooperation and solidarity with us enhances their security. The greatest strategic problem we face in the struggle against terrorism is that even with peoples and governments who share the threat perception, there is an increasing sense that cooperation and solidarity with us can be a security detractor not enhancer. There still are many policies and parts of our relationships that have the more positive security enhancing effect. But the Iraq war has had, is having, and unless we significantly change course will have greater and greater security detracting effects for more and more friends and partners.
The Rumsfeld metric needs to be positive. It is decidedly negative.






The U.S. Military had drawn up plans to take out Al-Zarqawi before the war but three times the Rumsfeld-Cheney Cabal said no. See the story here. The Military knew exactly where he was at that time. Cheney-Rumsefeld thought it would hurt the case for war if the only known terrorist in Iraq was killed before the war started. Of course, Zarqawi was a declared enemy of Saddam, but that is just nuance right?
Why is this not a bigger story? We have known this for a very long time. If I were a Jordanian, this would make me very angry as it is was Zarqawi's group that was behind the bombings.
November 16, 2005 7:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Big strategy problem!
..."strength of [US]' global position long has been heavily based on the belief of other countries that cooperation and solidarity with us enhances their security. The greatest strategic problem we face in the struggle against terrorism is that even with peoples and governments who share the threat perception, there is an increasing sense that cooperation and solidarity with us can be a security detractor not enhancer."
The public and politicans should be on this issue. To many strategy sounds like like some fancy thing done by academics and theory types. Message to one and all: this is a big deal and it is not just for academics!
November 16, 2005 7:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Whatever the foolishness of Bush's conduct of the war in Iraq doesn't the bombings in Jordan demonstrate something really wrong with Sunni Muslim Arabs far more than it does with the war in Iraq?
November 16, 2005 7:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Whatever the foolishness of Bush's conduct of the war in Iraq doesn't the bombings in Jordan demonstrate something really wrong with Sunni Muslim Arabs far more than it does with the war in Iraq?
I think it demonstrates something really wrong with the suicide bombers, but not necessarily with all Sunni Muslim Arabs. We have to avoid labeling an entire group as sick or evil based on the actions of some portion of that group. The BTK serial killer was an active Lutheran (I think he was Lutheran), but his actions don't prove that there are problems with all Lutherans or all Christians.
I can't stress how important it is not to make generalizations about groups of people. It's become quite fashionable to diagnose "problems" with Arabs and Muslims. I know a lot of Sunni Muslim Arabs (one of my brothers-in-law is one--as are my nieces and nephews and many of their friends). They aren't evil people. The increasingly popular generalizations about Arabs and Muslims remind me of generalizations like "all blacks are lazy" or "all Jews are greedy." These are just racist. Let's please not go there. We need less racism, not more. We also need more understanding of the real diversity within groups--that diversity is what can give us hope that Arab/Muslim suicide bombing isn't something that can't be stopped. Remember that far more Arab Muslims are not suicide bombers than are suicide bombers. If we knew more Arab Muslims ourselves, maybe we wouldn't make these generalizations so easily.
November 16, 2005 8:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Purple State
I realize yours is the politically correct view but I believe it is totally mistaken. It is not that every act by every individual can or should be attributed to the group or groups they are members. However, it is a bit like saying that it would be wrong to attribute to the Germans the acts of the Nazis. I think the Nazis very much demontrated a great evil among the Germans. Thus similarly there is something very wrong among Sunni Arabs.
With all due respect. It is not just the bombings in Jordan. What about the bombings of Shia mosques, Hindu temples, clubs in Indonesia? 9/11 were all the act of Sunni Muslims. Then of course there are the bombings in Madrid and London. Notice I have not mentioned Israel onec.e It seems time to recognize that this group is having a violent temper tantrum and the American Left won't call them to account.
When we see Sunni Arabs stand up and denounce such behavior I will be a lot more impressed by the comparison between one suicide bomber after another and BTK.
As an aside if we were discussing the Thirty Years War I would raise questions about Protestants and Catholics as they proceeded to slaughter each other. Culture matters.
November 16, 2005 8:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
AND it turns out that al Qaeda, knowing us better than we know ourselves, posted him there immediately after 9/11, so he would be pre-positioned to do exactly what he is doing after we invaded.
November 16, 2005 8:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Whatever the foolishness of Bush's conduct of the war in Iraq doesn't the bombings in Jordan demonstrate something really wrong with Sunni Muslim Arabs far more than it does with the war in Iraq?
What is that supposed to mean? Even if there were "something really wrong with Sunni Muslim Arabs", what exactly are we supposed to do about it? Change the culture or political psychology of the entire Sunni Arab world? It's up to us to decide whether to keep our forces in Iraq. It's not up to us to decide what kind of people Sunni Arabs are.
This isn't about deciding whether Americans are nicer people than Arabs. It's about deciding what a rational policy towards the Middle East would look like.
November 16, 2005 8:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Daniel . . . evil can arise in any individual and any culture . . . but when we start labeling people "evil" we end up perpetrating the idea that they are unredeemable. The reason we've had such success with Germany after Nazism is that we didn't look at the Germans as inherently evil--instead we gave them a chance to act differently and they have. My experience with Arabs is overwhelmingly that they are not extreme or hateful. Sure, there are obvious exceptions and there are--right now--a lot of those exceptions. But the vast majority of Arabs are not sick. They just want what everyone wants: a decent life for themselves and their families.
November 16, 2005 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
whereas al Qaeda once had over 60% approval in Jordan, now "more than 87% said they considered al Qaeda a terrorist organization, and almost as many said that al Qaeda's acts of terror did not represent Islam."
Shows quite a flip flop has occurred in Jordan regarding support for Al Queda. Each country that this happens in is a serious blow to Al Queda. There should logically be less Jordanians joining Al Queda now, and less financial donations provided from Jordanians to Al Queda. Which obviously translates into a net positive in the war on terror, compared with the 50 killed in the bombings in Jordan.
It would be interesting if someone did a poll in Iran. As we have shiites being blown up by Al Queda/Sunnis. Yet Iran is hardline and even more so with their current President regarding Islam, so I am not sure anyone would know unless a poll was done in Iran (which it probably wouldn't allow a poll to be done.)
As more and more countries experience their "9/11", Al Queda's chance of winning their campaign to take over the world as an Islamic planet gets smaller and smaller.
There is also an obvious opportunity after such "9/11"'s of other countries, to improve relations with the victimized nation and strengthen intelligence cooperation and military cooperation other cooperations not related to the war on terror.
I heartily disagree with your assertion that it is a slam dunk that muslims blowing up muslims is a net negative in the war on terror.
November 16, 2005 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Germans were evil. However it was decided that if both that we needed them to oppose the Soviet Union and that in order to have a functioning country we would deal with Germans even those who had engaged in mass murder.
I will go further the Jewish Settlers who were ready to kill Israeli soldiers and a few who have murdered Arabs. They are part of a culture, often from America, that is fanatic and thus sets the stage for the evil acts of individuals.
When one looks around the world, who are engaging in mass murder? The only people are Sunni Arabs. We have now seen Jordanians protest murder. Where were they when they were bombing Shia, Christians and Jews? Many Germans tortured people and then went home and petted the dog and were kind to their children. When the Sunni Arabs say enough is enough. That mass murder is not an acceptable political tool then it will be time to treat individual criminals for what they are individuals.
Unlike the BTK killer he did not claim to act on behalf of his Lutheranism or other groups goals. The Sunni Arab killers all seem to want to wrap themselves in the mantle of politicla oppression as if that makes it alright.
When the Thirty Years War ended Europe began to find tolerance. It was not because they did not see Prostestants or Catholics as respectively not evil or even entitled not to be killed. They recognized that if they did not want their farms burned or themselves to be murdered they could not murder those on the other side.
November 16, 2005 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Germans were evil.
And are the Germans still evil? If not when did they stop being evil? And when they stopped did they all stop at once or did some stop being evil before the others? Maybe all the ones born before 1933 were evil, and the ones born since haven't been evil?
Since the Turks killed millions of Armenians were they evil? Are they still? Were the Russians evil throughout the Stalinist genocide? Have they stopped being evil?
Of course those questions are completely absurd - and thus in the context completely appropriate.
Obviously during the Third Reich there was a dominant sociopathic strain that was unprecedentedly unpleasant and that caused vast suffering and horror for many millions. But to say "the Germans were evil" is to reduce an incredibly complex series of social phenomenon to the level of the playground.
Have you read much European/German history about this time? I'm very interested in finding out what you are basing your conclusion on.
It seems your idea that Nazism is explained by the Germans being evil, denies the possibility of of a similar evil occurring elsewhere - as long as the population isn't evil, then apparently we have nothing to worry about.
November 16, 2005 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
The ONLY good thing about the attack is hopefully the world will start addressing the scourge of terrorism. The 9/11 attacks weren't perpetrated all the followers of Islam or Sunnis it was a crime committed by the a small group who hate. Unfortunately our incompetent and counterproductive actions in Iraq have increased that hatred, but to reiterate not all Sunnis or the followers of Islam should be labeled terrorists...
November 16, 2005 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
"strength of [US]' global position"
Except the poll results that Bruce posted himself, show the opposite. The poll results do not show that there is an increase in anti-american sentiment. It shows an increase in anti-Al Queda sentiment.
Also, such flip flops of public attitude are the open door to bettering a friendship with America, not the other way around. Which can lead to greater security - financial security, military security (not including isolated cases of bombed weddings), you name it. And it becomes more acceptable for the leadership of the country to strengthen relations with the U.S. when these sorts of "breakdowns" occur, because of the public sentiment and because of anger being directed towards Al Queda.
Someone else has posted a comment mentioning that someone's argument reduced a complex situation to "the playground." Yet the playground model does apply. When the challenger (Al Queda) takes a whack at the big boy on the playground, and then takes a whack at some of the other smaller boys, the smaller boys are both angry at the challenger, and thus an alliance is formed because of the common ground of being angry at the challenger.
November 16, 2005 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nazism was explainable by German Culture. I do not know when Germans ceased to be evil. Perhaps when those who voted Hitler to power, those who manned the concentration camps, those who were part of the German war machine and those who failed to smell the burning bodies had children.
I do not understand American leftists moral obtuseness. There is evil in the world. There are some cultures that foster very evil acts. What is absurd is your casual attitude toward evil. Yes the Turks and the Soviets were evil while their nations committed heinous acts as deliberate national policy.
The lefts ridiculousness is why we continually get Republicans as Presidents.
November 16, 2005 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
. . . doesn't the bombings in Jordan demonstrate something really wrong with Sunni Muslim Arabs . . . . Daniel A. Greenbaum
Yeah; planning and execution on the level of Rumsfeld, Feith, and Garner.
November 16, 2005 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Daniel . . . let's accept your premise for a moment that Sunni Arabs are evil. What's next then?
November 16, 2005 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Daniel . . . let's accept your premise for a moment that Sunni Arabs are evil. What's next then?
I'll chime in here and say this: Sunni Arabs are not evil because every one of them is a terrorist or a potential terrorist. The vast majority of Arabs wouldn't go near terrorism or radicalism in general. The issue is the quiet acquiescence to the moral monsters in the Sunni Arab midst. Before the Amman bombings, 60% of the Jordanian population supported al Qaeda. 60%!! We keep hearing how the one thing terrorists need to keep going is the sympathy of the surrounding population. That is why I have absolutely zero sympathy for the Palestinians, even though I think they've gotten screwed continuously by everyone around them. Even if most Palestinians are themselves guilty of nothing, they support the death cult, as long as its targets are Jews. It is a moral calamity on a vast scale.
The thing that we can do in response to this is to stop indulging them. Make it clear that unless Arabs take concrete steps not only to crack down on militant groups, but also to shut down the pro-terrorist media and political indoctrination, there will be no sympathy whatsoever for Arab grievances, no matter how legitimate. People who act like barbarians and condone barbarism should be treated like barbarians.
November 16, 2005 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, so what does it mean to treat them like barbarians? Translate this into a policy.
November 16, 2005 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I do not know when Germans ceased to be evil. Perhaps when those who voted Hitler to power, those who manned the concentration camps, those who were part of the German war machine and those who failed to smell the burning bodies had children.
That's not even close to making sense. I need not try to address it. I whole-heartedly reject the notion that anyone who voted for Hitler or who fought in the Wehrmacht was intrinsically "evil". And to lump those millions in with concentration guards is beyond facile.
What is absurd is your casual attitude toward evil.
No. What's absurd is responding to racism with racism, while at the same time being so clueless as to believe one holds the high moral ground.
And I notice you failed to list the European history you've read - an unsurprising ommission.
The conduct of Germans en masse through the Third Reich is characterized much more accurately as ignorance (wilful and otherwise), moral cowardice and well-grounded fear.
The lefts ridiculousness is why we continually get Republicans as Presidents.
Just like it was the fault of the Weimar Republic that Hitler came to power, right? ;)
November 16, 2005 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, how about:
*Stop giving Egypt $2 billion a year
*Cut off aid to the Palestinians pending reform. Furthermore, make the Europeans pay for supporting the Palestinians
*Tie MFN status to cutting off the jihad propaganda machine
Above all, wean ourselves away from dependence on Arab oil. Go green, drill in ANWR, develop new energy sources, raise mileage standards. Do whatever it takes to stop subsidizing this cancer on the world.
Is this harsh? Sure. But something has to be done to break the current dysfunction.
November 16, 2005 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't find it terribly harsh . . . it seems to amount to completely disengaging from and ostracizing the Middle East.
We could try it and see what happens. My thought, though, is that what we'll end up with is a Middle East in a close alliance with Russia and China.
November 16, 2005 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
My thought, though, is that what we'll end up with is a Middle East in a close alliance with Russia and China.
They can have them!
November 16, 2005 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Purple State
You make sound like I am indicting them as individuals. What I am saying their is some major flaw in their culture as it now exists which cannot just be blamed on Israel or the United States.
As the United Nations reports on developement in the Arab World indicates there are a number of liberal voices among Arabs. My cousin has spoken to a number of Arab women who would like to see reform and reformation in their culture. We should encourage these people. We should get out of the stability versus revolution dichotomy.
We should recognize that societies built on oil and suicide bombings are not good for us or themselves and reach out to the reformers as we did for Solidarity in Poland
After 9/11 I read John L. Esposito's Islam: The Straight Path at the suggestion of my cousin. Esposito who heads the Georgetown Chrisians and Muslims institute at Georgetown is very sympathetic to Islam. However, after reading the book I was very depressed. Many efforts at reform within Islam have been defeated by a call to look backward. Islam also seems to have a very pick problem both in having nonMuslim living within their countries and themselves living in nonMuslim countries. Is this always the case, undoubtedly no, but I was left with the clear impression that it is true often enough to require us to reach out to any and all forces for reform and given them any aid we can.
November 16, 2005 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Brad
I know you did not say this but since I think Purple State misunderstood me I want to be clear. I do not think all Sunni Muslims are terrorists or even would-be terrorists. But like many Germans during WWII, they do not mind evil things being done in their name.
November 16, 2005 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
But like many Germans during WWII, they do not mind evil things being done in their name.
Agreed. As long its done to someone else.
November 16, 2005 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Daniel, I agree that we should be encouraging and rewarding moderates in the Islamic world. That's why I don't buy Brad's argument--which seems to amount to (impractical) complete disengagement. And I don't deny that there are problems in the Islamic world--violent jihadism and the treatment of women are two good examples. At the same time, I worry that the tendency to make blanket statements about problems with Islamic culture leads to a sense of hopelessness that is truly overblown. My experience with Muslims is that the vast majority are not messed up. I also don't think the violence we are witnessing right now in the Middle East is all that different than the violence we saw in Latin America in the 1980s. The Middle East is in a period of turmoil, but it's not inherently sicker in my mind than other places that have undergone violent periods--that includes Africa (which has recently witnessed genocide and other atrocities beyond anything in the Middle East), South East Asia post Vietnam, Central America about two decades ago, and Europe with the Nazis. We may be more alarmed by some of what's going on in the Middle East right now, but that's a byproduct of the fact that we've been so involved in the Middle East and therefore are, in part, targets of the violence.
I guess I just don't see the usefulness of trying to diagnose what's wrong with Muslims and their culture. That seems highly unfruitful. I think what we need to be doing is trying to build/encourage better economies and better governments in the Middle East--and not by using military force, but by using targeted aid and diplomacy.
November 16, 2005 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would like to avoid something like a clash of civilization. There are bombings around the world. I would like to see a cessation of the violence and for there not to be and endless war. The only way to avoid this it seems to me for their to be a need for a reformation and an intergration of the Muslim world into the rest of the world.
November 16, 2005 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I whole-heartedly reject the notion that anyone who voted for Hitler or who fought in the Wehrmacht was intrinsically "evil".
Can we agree that Americans were intrisically evil when native nations were being erradicated and exterminated, and Africans were being kidnapped, bought and sold?
November 17, 2005 8:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Can we agree that Americans were intrisically evil when native nations were being erradicated and exterminated, and Africans were being kidnapped, bought and sold?
Anyone?
This idea, apparently shared by you and Daniel, that when evil acts occur on a wide scale in a nation, this means the nation is intrinsically "evil" strikes me as somewhat odd.
Because the obvious corrolary of that is that, as soon as the evil acts subside, then the nation is no longer "intrinsically evil".
But if something - a person, a nation - is intrinsically evil then it is not defined purely by its currents actions. Intrinsically evil is its core nature, its irreducible identity. So to suggest that Germany 1933-45 was intrinsically evil, but then it just stopped being that way once it was defeated is completely illogical.
Had Hitler survived and escaped would he have no longer been evil because he could no longer carry out the Holocaust? That is absurd. And yet Daniel apparently believes that the millions who voted for Hitler and/or who fought in his armies did just that. They were all evil, but then they stopped being evil on May 8th 1945.
What actually happened is that the corrupt power structure, led largely by evil men was decapitated and the broad majority of weaker, self-serving, ignorant elements it had so successfully ensnared were released from their grip.
But bear in mind even Hitler's own generals were plotting against him throughout the war, and they feared they could not succeed. What options did the common people have? And also bear in mind even when Hitler won elections - and not on a mandate of war and Holocaust, I might add - he never won an overall majority in the Reichstag, and was roundly beaten in the Presidential race against Hindenburg. So what does that say about the "intrinsic evil" of the Germans?
November 17, 2005 9:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm afraid you give "the left" (whatever it is this week) more credit for unified coherence than it deserves. But that said, it is intriguing the way Dubya's Top Gun flight suit schtick earns well-deserved ridicule while Arafat's and Che's uniforms evoked heroic liberation.
November 17, 2005 9:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
This idea, apparently shared by you and Daniel, that when evil acts occur on a wide scale in a nation, this means the nation is intrinsically "evil" strikes me as somewhat odd.
Odder still, is the way you approach a question as a declarative statement.
November 17, 2005 9:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Right. Basic English lesson: the question, "Can we agree that Americans were intrisically evil when native nations were being erradicated and exterminated, and Africans were being kidnapped, bought and sold?"
means. "This is what I believe. Do you share my belief?".
"We" means "You and I".
Look, if all it took was a couple of words from me to make you embarrassed for having expressed this opinion, then take consolation from the fact that it must not have been such a deep-seated one.
November 17, 2005 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Can we agree that Americans were intrisically evil when native nations were being erradicated and exterminated, and Africans were being kidnapped, bought and sold?
I wouldn't agree to this. Americans (of European descent), like all other people, had a great and idealistic spirit but were also capable of doing things that were truly bad to other people. This is human nature. All peoples (regardless of race) have this (as Dostoevsky said about the Russians) "peculiar broadness"--the ability to be good and bad at once.
Jefferson was a great example--he was a slaveholder, yet he did much to advance the cause of liberty and human freedom. Was he good or bad? Neither or both, I guess--but mostly he was human, which means full of contradictions.
November 17, 2005 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
We have to avoid labeling an entire group as sick or evil based on the actions of some portion of that group. The BTK serial killer was an active Lutheran (I think he was Lutheran), but his actions don't prove that there are problems with all Lutherans or all Christians.
Don't you mean "avoid labeling an entire group, well except for Republicans...?
November 21, 2005 3:17 AM | Reply | Permalink