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About that NIE

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This may not be the most propitious moment to weigh in on what the intelligence about Iraq showed in 2002 (what with the president and all claiming that the critics had access to the same intelligence they did), but Matt Yglesias points out something important -- which is that the classified version of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraqi WMD delivered to  the Hill on October 1, 2002, made clear that the evidence on Iraq's WMD was far from conclusive.


Why is this important? First, because what was said publicly about Iraq's WMD (including in the declassified NIE) and what the classified intelligence showed were two, very different things.  This is what made Senators like Graham and Durbin so upset (and why they both voted against the war). Second, because those who voted for the war did have full access to the NIE and therefore should have known better than to accept what was being said publicly and instead should have called the president on it then and there. Now is a little late.


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Point of information: i have been laboring under the impression that the classified NIE was not delivered to everyone on the hill, but only to select members of the relevant committees, while everyone else in congress got the public version.

am i right or wrong?

The NIE was available for any member or Senator to read, albeit only in a designated room.

One didn't need access to classified documents back then to know what Bush was saying was bogus. All you had to do was read the non-USA press. That's why so many millions of people around the world marched on 2/15/2003 to try to prevent this disaster in Iraq. If more Americans were better cricical thinkers and more people in Congress had moral courage Bush never would have been granted a blank check in October 2002 by both houses of Congress.

Second, because those who voted for the war did have full access to the NIE and therefore should have known better than to accept what was being said publicly and instead should have called the president on it then and there. Now is a little late.

A point I have made repeatedly in correspondence to Sen Feinstein, a majority member of the SSCI at the time.

That NIE was suspect even to ordinary joes like myself.  In fact, Daschle and Biden toyed for a time with putting the war powerrs vote over until December until they caved, apparently in the belief that Bush would go away and not impugn the Democratic "leaders" patriotism.


Ivo's correct - it is just a little late for these so-called Democratic "leaders" which is why I will not vote for any candidate in 2006 who does not advocate a speedy withdrawal, and if she is an incumbent, I additionally require that the candidate admit to grave error.

I was therefore pleased to note that the Nation has endorsed the same litmus test.
Democrats and the War [from the November 28, 2005 issue]
Everything that needs to be known is now known: The reasons the Bush Administration gave for the American war in Iraq were all falsehoods or deceptions, and every day the US occupation continues deepens the very problems it was supposed to solve. Therefore there can no longer be any doubt: The war--an unprovoked, unnecessary and unlawful invasion that has turned into a colonial-style occupation--is a moral and political catastrophe. As such it is a growing stain on the honor of every American who acquiesces, actively or passively, in its conduct and continuation.
....


The Nation therefore takes the following stand: We will not support any candidate for national office who does not make a speedy end to the war in Iraq a major issue of his or her campaign. We urge all voters to join us in adopting this position. Many worry that the aftermath of withdrawal will be ugly, but we can now see that the consequences of staying will be uglier still. Fear of facing the consequences of Bush's disaster should not be permitted to excuse the creation of a worse disaster by continuing the occupation.

We firmly believe that antiwar candidates, with the other requisite credentials, can win the 2006 Congressional elections, the 2008 Democratic presidential primaries and the subsequent national election. But this fight, and our stand, must begin now.


In the coming weeks and months The Nation will help identify--and encourage support for--those candidates prepared to bring a speedy end to the war and to begin the hard work of forging a new national security policy that an end to the Iraq War will make possible.

There is no other way to save America's security and honor. And to those Democratic "leaders" who continue to insist that the safer, more electable course is to remain openly or silently complicit in the war, we say, paraphrasing the moral philosopher Hillel: If not now, when? If not you, who?








Did Graham and Durbin warn their fellow Senators not to rely on the declassified NIE and to go to the designated room to read the real McCoy?

And miss all those fund raising events, she added snarkily. 

Five of the nine Democrats on the Senate Intelligence Committee, including Graham and Durbin, ultimately voted against the resolution, but they were unable to convince other committee members or a majority in the Senate itself. This was at least in part because they were not allowed to divulge what they knew:


I am a little confused about this passage.  Is it being said that Durbin and Graham couldn't consult with their fellow senators or just that they couldn't make that case to the public?  I think it is an important question.  It almost sounds like Graham and Durbin were gagged even with their fellow senators.  Because if they chaired the committee and both were against the war how could the senate as a whole disregard such a bi-partisan finding of the committee?

This is around my 43rd post on this subject, but people seem to need constant reminding. They forget the climate of public hysteria in the days leading up to the war. Voting against giving Great and Fearless Leader anything other than a free hand was a death sentence to all politicos from all but very strongly blue states. How many of us would have the moral fortitude to do the right thing and give up a job we have striven for years to get? A little compassion is needed for those spineless globs of jelly. They are much more representative of humanity than Rosa Parks or Max Cleland.

I've certainly posted too many times on this topic, in other places on the site, so I'll be brief here...

The evidence presented to the public, and to the world, before we invaded Iraq did not conclusively prove that Saddam had, or was close to having, WMD.  It did, however, raise suspicion.

Thing is, war is not the first response to raised suspicions.  If Bush had wanted, after what he presented, the US to push for more thorough inspections within Iraq, not even anti-Bush me would have objected.   Bush made a great case for the world wanting to know more.  But not a great case for war.  War was an option, but not the necessary and not the best option.  But, that's where he went.  No matter what he says now, we can't forget that it didn't have to be this way.

Millbank and Pincus

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/11/A R2005111101832.html

Millbank and Pincus

 At the time, I was under the impression that the President wanted the war powers declaration as a tool for forcing Saddam into compliance with the inspectors. He kept saying that no one wanted a war less than him.  I thought that was the same impression held by most Democrat members of Congress.

Call me naive if you like, but it is my suspicion that I represent a pretty average-joe view. I am willing to bet my pay stubs are smaller than most anyone posting on this site, short of students.

It worked.
 
Saddam complied for the most part, and that was a problem for the President. He expected, hoped, and planned for a Saddam that would refuse inspectors to the last minute. Once the inspectors came close to finding out the truth, and exposing Americans to that truth, the game was off and the war was on.

Bush mislead Congress and us for sure. But that deception was in the simple statements that he wanted to do anything he could to avoid war, when in fact he wanted to do anything he could to incite, and create excuses for, his war.

Incidentally, the President today said it was perfectly legit. to criticize him on the conduct of the war and the aftermath, and we should. Democrats ought to be out there everyday creating a stink about the conduct of the war, and reminding people of the President's assertion that their criticism is "perfectly legitimate".

That is not to say we should stop seeking the revelation of the truth about intelligence deceptions, but we should also take advantage of foolish statements from Bush. I would run an ad, with that line at the beginning, followed by a series of silent onscreen facts about the failure of the conduct of the war. 2000+ dead, no body amour, looting museums, unsecured borders, raging insurgency, Abu G., Gitmo,  Chalabi and unfinished business in Tora Bora, followed again by the President saying it is perfectly legit to make these criticisms.

.  .  .  public hysteria in the days leading up to the war.

I don't understand.

Perhaps, you mean pressures during the campaign season -- the vote on the resolution was taken some weeks before the mid-term election, yes?

Democrats controlled the Senate.  Why weren't the committee hearings dragged out?  Why wasn't there limiting language in the resolution requiring the President to come back and report (prove?) Saddam's refusal to allow inspections (to comply with UN resolutions)?

Unless I'm missing something, I think you're being much too generous and much too sympathetic.

Screw the NIE. Congress got its last chance to intervene with the vote in September. After that it was all "the decision has not been made" and "I get to decide". And in between we had Saddam blinking, Inspectors on the ground finding nothing, and Bush getting his war on anyway. Not everyone was sleeping, this is Bush's war, he was bragging about it at the time, and any suggestion that the blame should be shared is frankly bullshit.


Congress gave the keys to the car to Bush in September 2002. And while you can argue that letting a drunken, fratboy wannabe cowboy behind the wheel was a predictable disaster (and some of us were saying so at the time) only one guy was driving in March 2003.


(And don't get me started on the Liberal War Hawks in the back seat yelling "Step on it Georgie!!")

How many of us would have the moral fortitude? If their own children were to be sent to the front line, it would have taken no moral fortitude at all.

Mr. Daadler,

I respecfully disagree.  The Think Progress website debunks the claim "critics had access to the same intelligence" the White House did.  Among the instances they list;

Rockefeller: PDBs, CIA Intel Withheld From Senate:

Ranking minority member on the Senate Intelligence Committee Jay Rockefeller (D-WV): “[P]eople say, ‘Well, you know, you all had the same intelligence that the White House had.’ And I’m here to tell you that is nowhere near the truth. We not only don’t have, nor probably should we have, the Presidential Daily Brief. We don’t have the constant people who are working on intelligence who are very close to him. They don’t release their — an administration which tends not to release — not just the White House, but the CIA, DOD [Department of Defense], others — they control information. There’s a lot of intelligence that we don’t get that they have.  - National Journal 10/27/05

War Supporter Ken Pollack: White House Engaged in “Creative Omission” of Iraq Intel:

In the eyes of Kenneth Pollack, “a Clinton-era National Security Council member and strong supporter of regime change in Iraq,” “the Administration consistently engaged in ‘creative omission,’ overstating the imminence of the Iraqi threat, even though it had evidence to the contrary. ‘The President is responsible for serving the entire nation,’ Pollack writes. ‘Only the Administration has access to all the information available to various agencies of the US government – and withholding or downplaying some of that information for its own purposes is a betrayal of that responsibility.’”  - Christian Science Monitor 1/04/04

 Media Matters For America:

On November 6, both the Post and the Times reported on a newly declassified document proving that the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) had voiced strong doubts about the credibility of an Al Qaeda operative whose statements provided the basis for many of the administration's prewar claims regarding Iraqi training of terrorists. The DIA report -- produced and distributed in February 2002 -- raised serious questions about the first interrogation report on the operative and determined that "it is more likely this individual is intentionally misleading the debriefers."

Both newspapers noted that administration officials, in late 2002 and early 2003, repeatedly cited the alleged chemical and biological training as proof of an Iraq-Al Qaeda connection but never noted that the DIA considered this intelligence suspect. Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), who released the new materials, stated "that he could not be certain that White House officials read the DIA report, but his 'presumption' was that someone at the National Security Council saw it because it was sent there," according to the Post.

http://mediamatters.org/items/200511080006

http://thinkprogress.org/2005/11/11/iraq-intel/ 

Incidentally, the President today said it was perfectly legit. to criticize him on the conduct of the war and the aftermath, and we should. Democrats ought to be out there everyday creating a stink about the conduct of the war, and reminding people of the President's assertion that their criticism is "perfectly legitimate".
Uh... what do you think Teddy-Nancy-Howard&Harry have been doing since the 1st day of the war?

There’s a lot of intelligence that we don’t get that they have.

-Sen. Jay Rockefeller, National Journal- 10/27/05 

A little compassion is needed for those spineless globs of jelly.

Yes, you are right. I apologize for my undue criticism of those blobs of jelly. How could we expect a mere blob of jelly to have a backbone? After all, what greater goal can man have than to further feather his nest?

Henceforth, I shall not expect my Senators, nor my Congressman to consider the well being of our citizens, nor the reputation of our country when deciding how to vote in Congress. We must leave courage to the young men and women who we send into battle, and not expect even a fraction of that courage of our elected representatives. Now, please excuse me while I go barf.

Helpknot up there refers to this article by Milbank and Pincus of the WP which I quote:


The lawmakers are partly to blame for their ignorance. Congress was entitled to view the 92-page National Intelligence Estimate about Iraq before the October 2002 vote. But, as The Washington Post reported last year, no more than six senators and a handful of House members read beyond the five-page executive summary.


The lawmakers did not have access to all of the intelligence that the White House had, but they could have known more, if they had read the whole report.


Also, there were dissenting voices in regular news sources if you were paying attention, which led me to believe that a vote for this resolution was not a good thing.  Just watching Bush, I could tell that he was itching to go to war, and that the resolution would, in effect, be a resolution to go to war.  IOW, I was not taken in by the the force-Saddam-to-let-the-inspectors-back-in rationale.  I strongly believed that Bush was not telling the truth, and that he was determined to topple Saddam.    

The mixture of credulity, political calculation, and (as janeboatler suggests) negligence of the Congress is inexcusable, notwithstanding Jimmy's on-point qualifications about the president's superior access to intel data. In that sense, Bush's self-defense, referencing the legislators and the Clinton statements -- the usual litany -- performs an unintended public service by reminding us of the irresponsibility of the lawmakers, and not just of the Democrats. I had, however, forgotten Ellen's point, which is a stunning one. We controlled the Senate, and still let the president dominate the debate with crude arguments and vague assertions of foreboding. Notwithstanding everyone's post-9/11 fears, this capitulation on our part was particularly shameful.

Although it's somewhat a side issue, it's worth adding that this president had scarcely earned a reputation for his love of policy detail -- instead, he's repeatedly and explicitly dismissed the arcana of governance as beneath his notice, although he's dressed his indifference in a callow variety of populist rhetoric, which may, alas, be all too genuine in his case.

Furthermore, despite the congressional abdications of judgment, the public opinion-thrashing Bush is receiving these days is thoroughly deserved, because the president, with more intelligence information than any other government decision-maker, and with the most powerful megaphone in public life, chose to push this issue, to put the question before Congress, and thereby to stake the credibility of the presidency and the lives of American service members and Iraqi civilians on his judgment of the matter. Others are guilty for concurring, but he is more so and ought receive proportionate blame.

One last point: I recently re-watched the misleading, condescending, and intermittently powerful and incisive film "Fahrenheit 9/11" for the first time since its theatrical release, and it's worth noting that senior Bush administration officials were captured on video in public statements in 2001 disclaiming the significance of Saddam's weapons capacity. So add that evidence to the list of mitigating indicators available before the war that cast doubt on the president's claims that Iraq posed a grave and gathering danger. Of course, those statements were also made before the terrorist attacks. But how does that fact, whatever its strategic implications, bear on the quality of the intelligence that produced the assessments being given?

I think this shows the pickle the President purposely put the Democrats in. He WANTED them to oppose the war. Bush was doing everything he could to create a Democratic opposition so that he could destroy them in the midterms. When Democrats refused to fall for it, he attacked their patriotism anyway, and won handily. Imagine how bad it would have been if the Dems HAD opposed the war. Rove was smart enough to make sure the invasion, which was assured to be a success, would happen close enough to the elections so that we wouldn't see any difficulties until the GOP had cemented their majority.

No doubt, everyone who saw that intelligence knew this. They didn't want the war, but they didn't want to fall into Bush's trap of being the unpatriotic party as they did in Gulf War I. They knew the intelligence was being distorted in public, but come forward with that and you play into Rove's hand. You either take a stand and send Dems to the slaughter in November, or you give Bush his war, which he is going to get anyway, but don't put yourself out there as an excuse when things go badly. If it goes well, Dems get the credit, if it goes bad, only Bush gets the blame. 

In my comment "The mixture of credulity, political calculation, and (as janeboatler suggests) negligence of the Congress is inexcusable ...", I meant to say something like "the unknowable mixture" -- I'm not prepared to level the incredibly serious charge of basing a war vote on political criteria on any individual legislator, or on any group of them, such as the Democrats, as a whole, although I believe I've read anonymously sourced commentary from at least one Hill staffer suggesting the relevance of politics to the way the October 2002 vote was processed.

The political motivation contention, of course, has been the subject of widespread speculation for a long time. Insofar as it may be a factor in congressional thinking, however, poll results have a more legitimate, albeit delimited, role to play in facilitating withdrawal from military engagement than in initiating it. If the benefits of a war aren't going to be greater than the losses, it probably shouldn't continue. Those losses are measured, and even discerned, in part by the tenor of public opinion. That collective moral judging function (again, a compass by no means infallible) speaks to why anti-war activism that undermines public support for war is not disloyal to our forces. Caring for the country and caring for military equally entail doing our best thinking about the gains and sacrifices of war, and also our best listening to each other. The alternative is to leave all judgments about the most profound questions of safety, freedom, and risk to an elite cadre (or cabal?) of philosopher-kings.

Notwithstanding their intelligence briefings, however, these would-be solomonic leaders, in any case, are scarcely fit to wear the mantle of unique and superior insight, because they accept, and constantly cite, the moral authority of their supporters, whom they were once wont to characterize as embodying the cohesive will of American people, while they cast aspersions on the civic virtue of those who ask substantive questions. As the president once said in a relevant bit of jest, it would be a lot easier if he were a dictator. But contrary to another of his well-known statements, being the president does involve having to explain yourself, as best you can, and to take the public reaction seriously. That's what's wrong with his response to loved ones of the fallen; sure, he was probably sorry for their loss. He just doesn't let such losses inform his thinking, at all. Or so his statements to date suggest.

While I was never as trusting of Bush's intentions as was helpknot (I must have a more suspicious mind), the following strikes me as a very important point:

Saddam complied for the most part, and that was a problem for the President. He expected, hoped, and planned for a Saddam that would refuse inspectors to the last minute. Once the inspectors came close to finding out the truth, and exposing Americans to that truth, the game was off and the war was on.

Bush mislead Congress and us for sure. But that deception was in the simple statements that he wanted to do anything he could to avoid war, when in fact he wanted to do anything he could to incite, and create excuses for, his war.

That's exactly right.  For the scandal here is not simply that the administration mismanaged the intelligence policy process and came up with the wrong conclusion about Iraqi WMD.  The scandal is that they came up with the conclusion that they wanted--the conclusion that helped them launch a war, for reasons still unknown, or anyway unaccounted for publicly, today.

The scandal is not simply that the Bush administration was wrong about the WMD--something that could in principle have been an honest mistake, born of overzealousness in protecting the country from post 9-11 threats.  One still hears this sort of defense of the administration from those on the right, but it is a totally irrelevant one. 

The scandal is that the administration was wrong about Iraqi WMD (and al-Qaida connections) on purpose--wrong with a prior intention.   We did not, after all, go to war with the wrong country by accident, nor was it a mere mistake

In the words of the Downing Street Memo, the facts and the intelligence were fixed around the policy.  The DSM was scandalous, not for what it revealed,  but for what it confirmed.  The fact that the war began when it did, is itself the smoking gun.  The DSM did nothing more than call attention to the fact that the weapon was sitting there in plain sight.

Should all Democratic members of Congress have availed themselves of the whole NIE, and used what they found there to oppose the resolution?  Yes, for the good of the country, they should have.  But this does not change the fact that they, and we, were systematically deceived by an administration bent on war. 

Through a massive propaganda campaign (of which the distortions and omissions in the NIE executive summary were but one part), Bush and his cronies created a climate of public opinion in which opposing a resolution authorizing the president to use force to disarm Saddam, if necessary, would have been an uphill battle. 

And yet it was all a scam.  A cheat.  A bait and switch.  Congress and the American people were treated like enemies, to be tricked into doing the administration's will.  That is what the whole world found out, when, as helpknot says, the inspectors came close to exposing the truth, and the game was called off, and the war was on.

And the President has stood by that fundamental deception all along, and he is standing by it still, down to the present day.  And as a result I think we are still having trouble coming to grips with the damage that has been done to American democracy.

For this is not a pleasant conclusion to be forced to come to:  The President of the United States, for reasons still obscure, was determined to start a war, and he was not prepared to let truth stand in his way.  If that is not an impeachable offense, then nothing is.



Why did the Russian, French , German and British governments as well as the United Nations all believe Sadaam had WMD's (some didn't want to fight, but all believed he had the weapons) did Bush manipulate every other Intelligence service in the world?

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