Facts and Definitions on Growing Together
While this book forum has evoked real disagreements over some crucial issues, I want to make clear two things: one, what am I defining as the growth that progressives should aspire for, and two, what, in light of Mr. Sirota's recent post, were the actual facts in the Clinton era.
For those read my book they will see in the first paragraph that my definition of growth is whether we "are growing together" and our test for whether our policies are successful is not growth per se, but growth that lifts all boats and leads to shared prosperity. (Even for those passing by a book store - skim the intro pp.1-3). The statement that we should not be happy with GDP that benefited, as Kevin Drum states, only the Donald Trumps and not the middle class or hard-pressed families trying to work their way up is one I fully support.
This is highly timely and relevant issue. Too many journalists and pundits find it mysterious that Americans are not happy with the President's economic performance when the economy is so strong - a definition they base on GDP, and not on how typical workers are doing. The fact is the inflation adjusted wages for non-management workers have declined in real terms since the end of the recession in November 2001. Why is it a mystery that workers who have not had a real rise in wages in four years - and fear greater falls in their income if dislocated - aren't feeling real swell?
This is a place we should all pull together. Whether or not we can change the definition of growth to median family income, we should make shared prosperity our test for economic success. We need to both be louder champions for policies that spur economic growth and wealth creation, but we should also be adamant that our test for constitutes successful economy policy is not GDP per se, but whether such growth lifts all boats.
Our debate here is not over whether we support looking at abstract macroeconomic indicators rather than the well-being of ordinary Americans: our debate is over the right recipe to make sure we are not only growing, but growing together. I believe that we will do more for ordinary Americans if we are hard-headed and realistic about the inevitability of global competition and markets and try to use progressive policies to shape these forces to raise living standards for working families both here and in other nations. I also think that if we are thoughtful in how we design our policies we can show that there are a range of crucial areas where growth and progressive values are essential to each other.
Those of us who have supported open markets must be willing to consider evidence of the downsides of global competition on wages and inequality - and be pragmatic in our policy responses. Yet, those who believe that increased global competition is almost by definition a negative for typical workers must at least be willing to analyze - and not distort what happened in the 1990s. Sirota distorts this picture by citing a Tampa Tribune article that includes statistics from the Center on Budget and Policy priorities which documented growth wage inequality from "the late 1970s" to the "mid-1990s"--not during the eight Clinton years. For those interested in the facts, here they are.
INCOMES GREW ACROSS THE BOARD
* Every quintile of the income distribution, from the highest 20 percent to the lowest 20 percent, saw incomes increase from 1993-2000.
* The bottom fifth saw the largest increase in real income growth of 24 percent--more than the 20 growth in the top quintile. This presented a sharp reversal from 1979-1993, when the top 20 percent gained 28 percent while those at the bottom saw their incomes actually decline by 13 percent.
* Real median family income grew $7,396.
* African-American families saw especially high income growth with real median family incomes increasing $8,966, a striking 33 percent increase.
Cite: US. Census Bureau, "Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States," 2004.
POVERTY FELL SIGNIFICANTLY
* Overall poverty fell from 15.1% in 1993 to 11.3% in 2000, the lowest since 1974.
* African Americans and Hispanics poverty rates fell to record lows. From 33.1% to 22.5% for African Americans and from 30.6% to 21.5% for Hispanics.
* The child poverty rate fell to its lowest point since 1978--from 22.7% in 1993 to 16.2 % in 2000.
Cite: US. Census Bureau, "Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States," 2004
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH EXPLODED
* From 1993 to 2000 the economy created 22.7 million new jobs. Monthly employment growth averaged 237,000 a month.
* Unemployment plummeted from 7.3% in January 1993 to 3.9 percent in December 2000--including a record 42 month run under 5 percent.
* African American unemployment dropped to a record low--from 14.1% in January 1993 to 7.4 % in December 2000. Hispanic unemployment also nearly halved, from 11.3% in January 1993 to a record low 5.1% by October 2000.
Cite: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Those on the far right who want to strain and struggle to distort this period as a way of undercutting support for policies that combined progressive fiscal discipline with broad expansions of programs like the EITC and a doubling of Head Start, can perhaps take an afternoon off and go to the a movie matinee today knowing that there is apparently such a spirited effort within progressive ranks to promulgate such unfounded claims.
What we should all agree with is that the falls in poverty, the drops in unemployment and the fact that the lowest-quintile saw significant gains was positive movement - though not nearly far enough. The fact that African American child poverty fell from a staggering 46% to 33% is progress, but make no mistake about it, 33% is still a national disgrace.
There is so much we could do from providing quality 0-5 pre-school for poor children to inspiring young children from disadvantaged backgrounds to seek and then complete a college education; so much we could do from encouraging our nation not to give up on those young minority males who have gone astray or by helping those with disabilities who lack the technological tools they need to get into the workforce; so much we could do to from expanding the EITC rewarding work model to expanding child care assistance and providing universal 401Ks to give every American a meaningful incentive to save. These are some of the ideas I encourage pro-growth progressives to champion and I wish we could spend a bit more time trying to work on promoting these type of pro-growth progressive policies - as opposed to simply having to set the record straight.















This is right on - and I agree, which is why I wrote that "many economic indicators - both macro and micro - improved during the 1990s, and the Clinton administration (and people like Gene Sperling) should be credited for being a part of that." And I'm glad we can acknowledge we still have a ways to go.
November 9, 2005 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Would someone like to explain why my previous post was apparently removed? Am I a troll? Or was I legitimately interacting with the post?
I'd love to hear what Sperling thinks of Acemoglu's article on "Institutions as a Long-Run Cause of Growth" I think one may suggest that too much is sometimes made of "freer trade" as always leading to better "growth".
dlw
November 9, 2005 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sirota - you need to show more respect for the concept of growth in future in your comments.
Too often your comments sound borderline anti-growth or macro-economic ambivalent, or like plain old kvetching. Too often you've had to clarify and re-clairify your positions. Your first several posts accused everyone of misstating your positions, threw around a lot of muck, and said just about nothing else.
I personally do not appreciate your representing progressive economics at all, finding your message too shrill, radical sounding, and uneconomic to produce results or even make good criticism. You need to hone your message greatly, and learn much from people like Gene Sperling. You don’t need to represent the idea of equality, nor do I want you to because people like Sperling do it far better with compelling economic arguments that may actually sway people and our economic future.
November 9, 2005 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let me try to put this in other terms. When republicans talk about being pro-business their deregulatory actions often have the effect of decreasing competition. When democrats talk about being pro-labor their anti-trust actions have the effect of increasing competiton. Competition is what makes markets dynamic, it rewards innovation, creativity and efficiency and creates wealth throughout the economy. Markets that stifle competition stratify wealth, stagnate job development, decrease upward mobility and is a zero-sum game. Markets that encourage competition spread opportunity throughout the economy and help create baseline wealth.
This would explain why the economy has consistanly performed better during democratic administrations even after accounting for economic cycles.
But advocating for competitive markets is a tough political sell. Politicians are rewarded for providing certainty but the engine of competitive markets is uncertainty. Democrats should take a page out the republican anti-welfare rhetoric of the 80's and apply it to corporations. And Elliot Spitzer should run for President.
November 9, 2005 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Democrats should take a page out the republican anti-welfare rhetoric of the 80's and apply it to corporations.
Long overdue, I'd say. I think it bears repeating.
Simlarly, I think it's time to view the recent SCOTUS decision involving eminent domain vis a vis private institutions like corporations, as a good thing. I.e., it seems to me there's now precedent for taking property away from large private institutions that are not serving the public interest, and making them public and thus accountable, via the mechanism of eminent domain. That which can be given, can be taken away.
The genius, in my view, of ideas like single-payer health care is that they don't have to alter such institutions one whit - health insurance and drug companies could be absorbed into a single payer infrastructure without even losing their customers (not who pays for their products, but who uses them); i.e., they can simply be made public, and their profits thus made part of the public base of revenues, not to mention that they thus also become truly democratically accountable.
The US Postal Service was made a whipping boy for bad government-run institutions during the health-care debate in Clinton's first term. But the point was not made that the USPS is a competitive player (the low-cost player, it seems to me) in its market, and doesn't use tax revenue to operate - it uses sales revenue like its private competitors do.
When major corporations are in trouble or cause trouble, let's not have the government bail them out - let's have the government buy them out.
If markets work so darned well, they'll still work when companies are truly owned by the people, and not just the wealthy few.
November 9, 2005 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoa, whoa, NickDoe! Please chill, huh? I seem to remember an earlier thread where you (I believe) were preoccupied with Sirota's prospective deficit of "respect" and his "impotence." Respekt, indeed, yo! The fact is that many of us get tired of the happy-horseshit lift-all-boats side of the rhetoric surrounding the issue of free trade and antiprotectionism--even those of us who have enough economics under our belts to see the Weberian inevitability and, yes, preferability of it all. You know, Peggy Noonan can write those speeches, but we need to move on to address how Social Democracy can take seriously its obligations to those of us who get the shaft in the short term when all these Big Plans with the acronyms are laid down. That's what it is, fella.
And I'd like to add that the secular trend in incomes by quintile over the last generation cast the Bush tax cuts in most shocking relief--for those who enjoyed the cuts were precisely the same people (along with those somewhat below them, perhaps) who, by virtue of increased incomes and general well-being, should have been absorbing virtually all tax INcreases sufficient to pay, in this "booming economy," for the "war on terror," dumbass foreign adventures, and the rest! The huge poison-working incipient failure of the American managerial/investor class is that their reigning political philosophy is so dessicated of any sense of community--and of gratitude to the polis that has served as the business-political-ethical platform for their unheard-of wealth--that they are undermining America fiscally from the top of the world, where they sit, looking increasingly like late-imperial rentiers fiddling while our fiscal policy burns. That means the moral equivalent of war, Nick, so wipe that smirk off your face!
November 9, 2005 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
elle loco,
"yo!" Democrats are throwing knuckleheads overboard to Nader.November 9, 2005 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
An excellent point which I would expand on a bit. As a regular watcher of CNBC I know that there are two "truism" stated over and over with religious fever. One is whatever government does is both inept and if not inept worse than whatever private entiies could or would do. The second is that the private market is always the better choice for any problem. As you rightly note many private corporations get plenty of assistence from government both indirect and direct. Also government is not always a terrible solution as among other things social security demonstrates.
I would be interested in hearing Gene discuss how much Clinton policies were responsible for the good economic numbers of the 1990s and how much were the coming to fruition of various advances led by the computer industry.
November 9, 2005 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Might it be that the bottom tiers are more wildly cyclical than the top? If the entire process is viewed as a river of income, the lower tiers are the most downstream. Each tier/class has its dam. Good precipitation years produce plenty of flow for all dams to lift their water level, but drought years make for the most affected are the most downstream. ?
It's a fitting metaphor perhaps since with the Colorado River there are battles amongst states and regions of states as to how much water is allowed to be dammed up and how much most be spilled to provide for downstream resources, where the politics battles are at their worst during drought cycles of course. (recessions.)
I don't know where I'm going with this but I think it's a metaphor worth considering at least. And altruistic policy would allow for the various dams to rise and drop at the same rates no matter drought or watershed cycles.
One thing about the Internet boom is I think at the beginning we were exporting more internet services, but before long other countries caught on and starting doing it themselves. I could be mistaken as this is just a hunch. I think this was part of the wild ride we had with the .coms.
At any rate it's good to hear economists talking about equitable GDP growth. Like I said before, as long as the U.S. comes up with a population set point, a population budget, I don't mind pro-equitable GDP growth. Since obviously we can't grow indefinately, and we might as well deal with that fact now rather than later.
November 9, 2005 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I want to know why everything is measured in materialisitc terms? I agree that certain physical necessities must be met to achieve well-being, but I do not think economic "growth," whether together or separately, is going to satisfy the need for well-being after the physical necessities are met. In other words, what is the economy going to do once it achieves saturation and parity? Continued "growth" at that point becomes pathological, a cancer, which is what our economy has become. It doesn't need to "grow" anymore. It needs to equalize. And, it needs to stand down from wanting more than it needs.
November 9, 2005 8:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Con-troll yourself, sir! You don't stoop to address any of my substantive points. Say "Larry Kudlow" ten times as fast as you can, take a deep breath and . . . engage us if you will.
November 10, 2005 6:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, lotus-man--but let's meet physical necessities first, shall we? In my neighborhood, school-age kids are collecting cans to buy food. "Parity"? "Saturation"? Say, what? Get real before you ascend, please. . . .
November 10, 2005 6:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Please show me where I said we had already achieved saturation and parity. Is what I said too complicated for you?
November 10, 2005 9:14 PM | Reply | Permalink