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Can We At Least Agree To Support Wealth Creation for Working Families?

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Jamie, you misunderstood my post and we agree a lot more than you realize (although far from completely).  I suspect everyone in this discussion supports more progressive taxes, investments in technology, increased immigration, and environmental and financial regulation.  And I suspect we all agree that, at a fundamental level, efficiency and equity are not just compatible but complementary.


We disagree on trade and the importance of deficit reduction (which I believe helped to allow the Fed to foster the low unemployment and strong job creation you so rightly emphasize in your post).


I understand we read the evidence differently on those two.  But why are you so skeptical about ideas to help moderate-income families save and create wealth?

You don't seem excited about the possibility of a win-win that transforms society, increases wealth for moderate-income families, and increases national savings.  I love George Bush's phrase about an "ownership society," just not his policies to promote more ownership for owners and more debt for everyone else.


A few other points to set the record straight:


1. You write that "To begin with, there is no economic theory--not even the neoclassical theory--that can support Gene's apparent argument that flatter taxes [sic] or free trade would lead to a sustained rise in the growth rate." At best, you argue, economic theory says it will increase the level of output but not the sustained rate of growth.


Describing a "one-time" increase in national output that is spread over several decades or even a century as an "increase in growth" does not seem far off.


More importantly, your statement was true of economic theory circa the 1950s Solow model.  But the newer wave of growth theory, so-called "endogenous growth theory" or AK models, does find that policies (especially ones that raise savings) can lead to sustained increases in the growth rate.  This is standard textbook stuff these days.


(For what it's worth, the tax reform study I cited found that a flat tax would raise national output by 1.9 percent after 150 years.  When flat tax advocates present this as a "1.9 percent increase in output" or as a "1.9 percent increase in growth" it lends some superficial appeal to the idea.  That's why I like to translate it into a 0.01 percentage point increase in the growth rate, it puts it in proper perspective.)

2. I don't know how I got cast as a Flat Tax supporter.  Jamie terms the potential efficiency improvements "modest."  In my post I went even further, calling them "miniscule."  As I pointed out, even the leading economic study touted by supporters of a Flat Tax finds that those benefits are virtually unobservable.  I thought that argument would help our side.

3. Gene uses the term "Flat Tax Incentive" for savings in an entirely different sense.  His proposal is a large increase in tax incentives for low- and moderate-income families and a modest tax hike for high-income families.  Relative to our current "up-side down" savings incentives this is a vast improvement.  It's a proposal all progressives should like, although Gene may need to change the name if it continues to cause confusion and lead to unecessary skepticism.

4. I agree that there is no macroeconomic evidence that increased inequality leads to higher growth.  But that doesn't mean that every policy that increases equality leads to higher growth and vice versa.  In some cases these conflict.  I don't see any reason to avoid discussing those cases.


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One doesn't need to use (untestable) theories to see the effects of inequality. Just look at the world. Those societies which support an oligarchy are less efficient.

Take most of traditional South and Central America, parts of Africa and the entire Middle East oil kingdoms as examples. Look at South Africa before and now.

Even if it could be demonstrated that having a really wealthy class was "a good thing" there is a moral argument against it. Most people would sacrifice some projected absolute growth in favor of reducing poverty now.

The growth argument is just a way to offer hope to the underclasses without having to face the problems that arise when wealth redistribution is mentioned.

The US is wealthy enough right now that everyone could be living above the poverty level without any additional "growth" if the excess earnings of the few were more fairly distributed.

It works in Scandanavia, for example.

OK, it's class warfare to say that Bill Gates has too much money. The UK managed to reduce the power of the land owning class over several generations by use of inheritance taxes. The society ended up better for it.

The real scandal is that the wealthy have too much money  and power and distort the priorities of the society for their own (short term) benefit. An unequal society is less efficient (as I mentioned above) and will fall behind in international competition. Fussing with trade won't fix this. 

Finally, lots of the problems in the US can be traced to excessive militarism/policing. This is a drain on the economy and diverts investment away from infrastructure and social improvement programs. Our competitors don't carry this weight. We spend more on militarism than the rest of the world combined. To ignore this as a factor in industrial policy planning makes the rest of the discussion almost meaningless.

 

"<span class="huge">The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries.</span&gt" -
<span class="bodybold"> Winston Churchill</span&gt

OK.

We know that the "command economy" doesn't work. Let the capitalists have their way in the market.

We also know that capitalists don't have a good record of sharing their blessings. And CEO's tend to think that they themselves are responsible for their successes. Winess Michael Eisner, who "deserved" his $600 million bonus, even though it was his 6,000+ employees who did the work.

So let's take a page from the Socialists on taxation policy. It's the easiest, most efficient way of keeping a level playing field; of keeping a "meritocracy" in America; of keeping the middle class from extinction.

I think the progressive liberal reaction to global trade should be to just let it happen, while working to ensure that our nation's citizens are given as much assistance as possible in adjusting to the changes taking place, and making sure that Big Business isn't given special considerations and privileged benefits.

The worker assistance thing in particular strikes me as a variation on social security - a sort of insurance against the periodic winds of economically violent change.  We know they've happened before, we know they'll happen again, and we know they always benefit moneyed interests and leave the workers in poverty.

Time to scrap welfare and create an Employment Security program open to all citizens, with a focus on education and reeducation, helping the downsized and the unemployed get and keep new jobs.  Put a measure on it so people aren't continually failing and reentering the program, but keep it as open as possible so it's there when people need it.

With something like that, along with measures to keep businesses from getting undue, unfair, lopsided benefits out of global trade, we can stop fighting trade and rest assured that, almost whatever happens, American workers will keep working and America will stay economically strong and vital.

"The US is wealthy enough right now that everyone could be living above the poverty level without any additional "growth" if the excess earnings of the few were more fairly distributed. It works in Scandanavia, for example."

Does Scandanavia have an illegal immigration problem like we do?  If not why not.  I am guessing if they don't, it is because they throw illegals back out of their Country.  Here you just get pregnant and you are an instant citizen, along with your child, and other children.  Then you have fatherless children who join the local gang due to a lack of parental attention.  And you get Los Angeles.
Sure I'm being simplistic.  But your post is equally simplistic.

I'd like there to be a way to have no poverty, but my experience tells me it would just create overcrowding.  Which ultimately would lead to the same poverty problem at some point anyways.

I agree with where you're going: the immediate post WWII decades were the most prosperous in our history and yet saw wealth inequalities reduced.  There appears to have been no negative impact from all those social safety net programs, on the contrary the rapid expansion of the middle class generated enormous and profitable opportunities for capitalist gain.  Surely that evidence undercuts any argument that, somehow, we need to boost incentives for the wealthy so that we can get out of our current rut: our current problems result from increasing worldwide competition, not from the lack of incentive. 
I have always held that capitalism and democracy are natural antagonists, rather than being mutually supportive.  Capitalism seeks to concentrate wealth while democracy seeks to share it.  So any period in history where the two are reasonably balanced will tend to produce a more sustainable economic environment [sustainable as in having longevity, not as in ecologically sound!].  Recognizing this is why we try both to limit capitalism and to reign in popularism.  The problem now is that the balance has been broken and we are living through a period of too great an emphasis on capital.  Trade discussions have somehow become tangled up in the larger debate over where we strike the balance between democracy and capitalism.  
Where I would disagree with you is in your notion that tinkering with trade is a side show.  Practically all the economic debate on this board revolves around globalization or trade.  We need a progressive attitude towards trade that doesn't throw out the benefits [lower prices, greater choice] in order to protect those of us who suffer in the short term from the competition.  As I noted above I think the dominant economic issue we have is how to integrate into the world economy.  The problem becomes larger when we try to integrate without inducing democracy sapping inequalities.
As for militarism: you are dead on.  We don't have a defense budget, we have an offense budget.  How do we balance the need for defense with forcing the Pentagon to become efficient in its use of our money?  That's an awful lot of schools they're tossing away in waste down there.

No one gains citizenship just by having a baby. When citizen children reach age 21, they can ask to have their parents' status adjusted, but not before.

Our economy depends, to a large and growing extent, on the labor of illegal immigrants. This is not a good state of affairs, but just saying "Let's send them all back where they came from," shows you understand neither the problem nor the possible solutions. 

By the way, did you enjoy that salad at lunch? Who do you think picked the lettuce for you?

Jason writes: 

I suspect we all agree that, at a fundamental level, efficiency and equity are not just compatible but complementary.

We certainly do not all agree.  You need to examine your "fundamentals", Jason.

Is capitalism efficient? Sure.

Is efficiency always a good thing? NO.

When is it not a good thing?  When it exacerbates a bias, i.e., when it works against equality.  The result, when this happens in an otherwise stable system, may not be just instability, but failure of the system, which may move monotonically towards an extreme state (a failure state).

Consider productivity improvements due to technology.  They benefit owners.  In the asymptote, they eliminate labor.  That labor is also the owner's market, in the longer term.  So by eliminating labor (so much for equity, by the way), owners shoot themselves not in the foot, but in the heart.  I know Henry Ford knew this, and I'm not an economist.

Free-market capitalism, when assisted by labor-devaluing technology, is too efficient to support its own markets.

How could this sort of imbalance be corrected?  You certainly can't assume it away, with unfounded claims about fundamentals such as yours.

Asymptotically, an ownership society is one in which wealth is so evenly distributed that there is, in effect, no ownership at all.  I'm sure you know where I'm going: that state is communism.

I would like to see you consider an ongoing phenomenon, one about which there was news yesterday.  There has been a battle brewing over ownership of electronically manifestible media.  I heard a grandfather got sued for his grandson downloading 4 movies on his computer.

The fundamental problem here is not that  children should understand the notion of intellectual property in order to respect it - it's that the notion, when applied to this sort of media - is highly unnatural.  The average consumer doesn't know how to program a VCR - this is beyond them.  If producers force this unnatural model on consumers, they will eventually destroy their own markets.  I suspect those markets will be destroyed anyway, by the efficiency of non-financial exchange in the world of computer networks.  Any attempt to force financial restrictions on this space can, and I suspect will, be blown away like dust in the wind.

Don't get me wrong - producing intellectual property should be my business - I'm just being objective here, as painful as it is even to me.

I get criticized for being a fundamentalist of a different sort; but I don't deny any evidence, and I know what my religion is.  Has modern economics become the priesthood of capitalism?  Sure looks that way from where I sit.

Time to scrap welfare and create an Employment Security program open to all citizens, with a focus on education and reeducation, helping the downsized and the unemployed get and keep new jobs.  Put a measure on it so people aren't continually failing and reentering the program, but keep it as open as possible so it's there when people need it.

It seems to me that the people who propose this kind of crap are always (1) young, (2) childless, and (3) positive that globalization will never affect them. Exactly how many times do you expect people to retrain in their lifetimes? How are people supposed to do this while simultaneously raising a family? Furthermore, since none of the things you propose above will ever happen, isn't it a bit disingenuous to claim that they disprove protectionist arguments?

Our economy depends, to a large and growing extent, on the labor of illegal immigrants. This is not a good state of affairs, but just saying "Let's send them all back where they came from," shows you understand neither the problem nor the possible solutions.

Why not? Illegal aliens have no right to be here, and sending them all back where they came from is a perfectly moral and reasonable solution, especially with real (as opposed to official) unemployment rates above 10%.

By the way, did you enjoy that salad at lunch? Who do you think picked the lettuce for you?

I don't eat vegetables. But you are correct that a lot of agriculture uses poorly paid Mexican coolies. That needs to stop. It is not only exploitative, but it also takes jobs away from Americans and it retards technological advance. Without cheap labor, maybe we'd have fully automated harvests by now.

Another point that may not be obvious.

The e-voting question and the e-property question both raise what I consider to be a fundamental conflict involving privacy.

There is no way, practically or theoretically, to enforce intellectual property restrictions without violating the privacy of the consumer.  This sort of violation is force-multiplied in the electronic space, in a way that does not manifest in the tangible space.

Any copy-protection or copy-enforcement mechanism that could actually work, must be able to uniquely and unambiguously identify the consumer.  This kind of unique and unambiguous identification, though, can then be used for any purpose by just about anyone.  Why?  Because it necessarily lives in the open and free market - it's not something the consumer keeps private; it would be useless if that were the case.

Consumers are already expressing, loudly and clearly, that they don't like this sort of business.  Welcome to the future...

It's an issue for e-voting similarly: uniquely and unambiguously associating individual voters with their votes opens the door for persecution of voters based on how they vote.  As far as I know, this is illegal.

The larger point is that in the modern age, private ownership of property (i.e., capitalism) will be increasingly in conflict with what we consider basic human freedoms and fairness.  It's unavoidable, whether capitalism is more efficient than socialism or communism, or not.

I was just thinking about this.  I don't think it is feasible for Democrats to launch a major offensive on illegal immigrants, since if I am not mistaken, many Democrats are immigrants if even a generation off immigrant, legal or illegal, I think this is a hot button issue for those Democrats, as they perceive it to be racist and they may have friends and family they are trying to help immigrate, legally or illegally.

However, upon thinking about it, I was earlier today advocating a huge raise in the minimum wage - $3.  Which might provide a tremendous trickle-up boost to the economy.  While many jobs in question are not there anyways due to outsourcing, manufacturing jobs, while in terms of service jobs, perhaps it would not have such a big negative affect.  I'd still buy just as many tacos for $1.05 compared to 95 cents for instance, and I don't think the drop in my savings account would amount to much difference in my quality of life or my childrens'.

Yet I also advocated this morning that welfare benefits should not increase a penny.  As I think it's better to provide incentive for workers not loafers.  And when there is incentive to loaf, you get ever higher numbers of illegal aliens, all bending over forwards to have a child so that the child and the mother become instant citizens, and with resulting flood in population increases housing costs and other costs of limited resources, which includes jobs, and the net result is the same situation or worse as before welfare was boosted.

But I think if we had the government take illegal immigration seriously, we could then safely and effectively boost welfare benefits - only if we could control the population.

Thus I think America needs to set a population "budget" and stick to it.  I am for immigration.  But I think some who might otherwise immigrate here can't because of illegal immigration.  Which is not fair at all and not good for diversity at all.

I would like this to be a Democratic plank but like others areas in life, I highly doubt it would work - i highly doubt a primary candidate standing on such a plank would win the primary election.

Regarding the lettuce issue - if lettuce is too pricey i could grow my own garden.  Another avenue would be for the government to supplement the pay of farm worker legal citizens on top of what the farmers can afford to pay, rather than handing out an increase in welfare payments, if the budget was allocated that way.  Subsidize farm worker pay to bring it up to minimum wage (which badly needs to be raised.)

As a p.s., unfortunately I think Republicans look the other way regarding illegal immigration, as they are of the groupthink that there are winners and losers in the world period, and who cares then if there are too many losers, since they are a winner and their children will be winners, the point of how many losers doesn't matter to them.  This is closer to satanism than christianity of course, but that's why we are all democrats as we know such distinctions.

Great post.  Plus the "retraining" mantra overlooks the fact that the person who you want to "retrain" very likely just lost not merely a job but his/her vision of the American Dream.  People are not interchangeable units of production.  What this country really needs is a party standing for quality of life issues that don't measure every aspect of life by how efficiently it produces widgits.  There is more to civilization than what they teach you in an MBA class and there's more to loss than a job -- see New Orleans for reference.

Re: How are people supposed to do this while simultaneously raising a family?

If someoen is unemployed presumably they would be able to devote as much to time to job retraining as they previously devoted to their lost job. Of course they would need full income support, not just the pittance that today's unemployment pays (plus benefits), but if that were possible then I would say they would have no problem raising a family and training for a job.
The real problem with job training though is what jobs are people being trained for? During the recent recession people who entered retraining programs were often being trained for jobs that were not there, adding (for example) to a glut of unemployed IT and telecom workers.

Of course they would need full income support, not just the pittance that today's unemployment pays (plus benefits), but if that were possible then I would say they would have no problem raising a family and training for a job.

But we know that is not going to happen, so globalists who use it to handwave away the problems of "free trade" are not being honest.

The underlying problem is that a majority of Americans believe that they are in a higher income bracket than they really are, and an absurdly large proportion of Americans believe that they will someday be millionaires. That means that American policy is geared towards the needs and interests of the rich, because Americans think they will be in that class someday. It's completely delusional, and unparallelled in any other advanced democracy. Basically, the American electorate suffers from severe hallucinations and needs to be slapped upside the head to clear them out.

 Illegal aliens have no right to be here, and sending them all back where they came from is a perfectly moral and reasonable solution ... I don't eat vegetables...

Firebug sounds like a flaming troll to me or a lunatic with dietary issues.

 

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