Secret CIA Prisons: Preemptive Strike or Surprise Attack?

Secret CIA Prisons: Preemptive Strike or Surprise Attack?

by

Larry C. Johnson


Dana Priest's Wednesday scoop in the Washington Post that the CIA has several secret prisons holding suspected terrorists in "friendly" nations, including some in the former Soviet Union and East Bloc, has folks legitimately outraged and wanting to ask tough questions. Based on preliminary checks I've made with folks who "know", the story is solid. What fascinates me in light of the Libby indictment, however, is who tipped her off? There are two likely scenarios:

Scenario One--Priest was tipped by CIA personnel, most likely recently retired, who think Porter Goss is being far too accommodating of President Bush and Don Rumsfeld. The CIA wants to play tough with terrorists, but does not want to stray into the arena where the Agency can be accused of massive human rights violations. CIA officers who I know personally, who have been on the ground in Afghanistan and Iraq, are uniformly opposed to torture and alarmed by the push into the twilight zone beyond the Geneva Conventions. Yet, there are some CIA officers who are carrying out these orders without asking too many questions. The few remaining Grey beards who have been through previous scandals (Does the Church Committee ring a bell?) are legitimately worried that the acts committed in the name of fighting the war on terrorism will be used to further discredit what is left of the CIA. In other words, this was a preemptive strike by CIA officers not happy with Goss who want to put the Director on the defensive and stop his ongoing effort to politicize the Directorate of Operations.


Scenario Two--Priest was tipped by NSC insiders who, angered over the Libby affair and paranoid that the CIA is trying to weaken the Bush Presidency, decided to drive a stake in the heart of the CIA. With the focus on the CIA trying to fend off Congressional investigators there is a chance that the focus on the outing of CIA officer Valerie Wilson will shift to the misdeeds of the CIA clandestine service.


My money is on Scenario One, but that is just an opinion. Regardless of who leaked this information the story is terrible news for the CIA. It conjures up once again the image of a rogue elephant run amuck. It may even ensnare the current head of the State Department's Office of Counter Terrorism, Hank Crumpton, who was working in the Counter Terrorism Center at CIA when these "prison" were set up. That, in my opinion, would be awful because the early word on Crumpton is that he is the best talent the S/CT shop has had in many years and is making significant strides in trying to coordinate the U.S. Government's chaotic and disjointed counter terrorism effort. Just some initial thoughts.


Comments (27)

avatar

Larry-

I believe when Bush "looked into Putin's eyes and saw his soul", he saw a kindred spirit- eyes that said "as a boy I tortured small animals-now I have moved on to bigger things". 

I could see Vlad making a few introductions for his pal, especially if he was willing to pay for the use of the "facility".  Maybe even recruit some Bulgarians to help out- I hear the for them, a cattle prod up the a** of a "detainee" is considered a conjugal visit.... 

avatar

It may even ensnare the current head of the State Department's Office of Counter Terrorism, Hank Crumpton, who was working in the Counter Terrorism Center at CIA when these "prison" were set up.


What's with the scare quotes around prison[s]?  If the WaPo article is correct, then I don't see how you can argue that they are anything but prisons, unless you don't think prison is a strong enough word (dungeon?, hellhole?).  If you don't believe the story, you should be scare quoting "set up".

avatar The sad part is that you are probably right - the revelation comes not because someone in the know wants to put a stop to uncivilized U.S. government agency actitivity, but to cull political advantage. If pre-emptive, at least the leaker has the half-hearted "good" motive of preventing politicizing of the CIA. But my tin-foil hat tingling hints that the leak may be a surprise to divert our attention from today's issues, a scenario that would be supreme irony.

Still, here's an opportunity to eradicate the whole concept of extraordinary rendition as a routine WOT policy tool.

Obviously, I have no idea, but the notion that it was sparked by some agent on the ground, who possibly fears real ramifications of international law that could debiliate many of our international espionage operations makes some sense.  An Italian court did, after all, recently authorize arrest warrants against US agents on kidnapping charges (I think that was the charge...)  Perhaps that was just a show.  It probably was.  But, what a show!

Pinochet got arrested.  There are places Kissinger won't go.  In essence, laws are supposed to work this way -- people don't want to violate them because they don't want to be punished.

So, I don't know who.  But if it were somebody who might well suffer if the CIA were branded, by an influential enough country, as a human rights criminal, then that makes some sense to me. 

avatar

Thanks as always for sharing your thoughts on the gnus on your topic of expertise so freely.


Forgive if I am overstepping bounds, but would also like to hear your opinion on this if you feel free to give it. If not now, sometime in the future. Note that there are several commenters there, so there is interest in the topic.

avatar

I read some misgivings about these prisons from CIA types that indicate keeping these secret is/was a very difficult task. In that light was the WaPo a recipient of a tip or did their own investigations uncover their possible existence and thus caused them to raise questions to the CIA of that existence? As has been reported, similar prisons in some locations had been previously revealed, and subsequently closed, so it stands to reason that they were replaced by others in different locales.


I am inclined to associate this coming out now because of the focus on questionable WH operations re: VPlame outing etc. I think this is a reflection of some people in the MSM finally calling into question things that should have been looked at critically long before now. With Congress totally lacking any nerve for tackling the Bush WH that leaves investigative journalists with a big responsibility. In essence, what we have is a need to reconstitute the checks and balances that have been undone because of the political power structure within the Republican party. While difficult and seemingly the long way around, investigative journalism can fulfill that function even if operating under some limitations. When you have an administration that is this secretive and this corrupt it raises the bar for the MSM to step up to the plate and perform their natural function within a democratic state.


thepeoplechoose

I have a question, and an observation.

First, I wonder in what sense this WaPo article is a revelation.  It was already more or less widely known - Khalid Sheik Muhammad is in CIA custody somewhere - and indeed, that detainees were being held for CIA interrogation in Bagram Air Base and perhaps Diego Garcia.  What makes these revelations new?

Second, picking up on the suggestion that there is a cadre of CIA officers willing to use tactics that at best flirt with violating the UN Convention Against Torture and etc., and the idea that Goss is showing too much deference to Rumsfeld, I think this indicates what would happen if the Bush Administration is seeking an exemption  (the original NYT story is now archived) from the McCain amendment prohibiting torture and inhumane treatment for the CIA.  Such an exemption would effectively authorize the CIA to use tactics that are currently, in theory, prohibited.  And that would lead to increased pressure on the CIA from DoD and the White House to take over custody of detainees who are seen as valuable enough to torture for information.

avatar

I'll suggest a couple of other possibilities.

Scenario Three: Priest or one of her colleagues has been poring over the records of flights of those mysterious planes that pick up detainees for undisclosed destinations. They saw a pattern and asked some of their sources, who may have come up with some of the types listed in Scenarios One and Two.

Or

Scenario Four: Someone from one of the countries in which the prisons are located came to Priest with the information. I suggest that the Eastern European locations are the most likely sources for two reasons: one, that people there are particularly sensitive to the presence of secret prisons for historical reasons, and two, that accession to the European Union (past or impending) has made them more conscious of the need to adhere to international standards.

That said, I tend to agree that Scenario One is the most likely. But if I were Priest, I would have checked as far as I could with the sources in Scenarios Three and Four.

avatar

Larry,
Obviously the existence of any CIA prisons would be classified information. The leaking of classified information is a central topic in Washington these days.

From a strictly political point of view, doesn't this story pose two problems. 1) It will make the CIA, as you've pointed out, look like the bad guy in Washington, especially if much of this occurred during Tenet's tenure.  

And, 2) This story will make the leaking of classified information appear to be a good thing with the proper justification. Adequately twisted, a proper justification could then be made for the Plame case.

I can see the spin machines working this one for all it's worth.

avatar

One of the things that has occurred since Plamegate/Treasongate, whatever you want to call it, is that progressives find themselves allied with the CIA. This is a very unusual occurence. I think it is very good for the progressive movement to really get a feel for the importance of the work the CIA does.


If your scenario two is correct, a nice side benefit for Republicans and neocons would be to drive a new human rights wedge between the CIA and progressives.

I've had the same thought as Kiltedliberal & I'm old enough to find my recent championing of the CIA pretty uncomfortable: I remember the Phoenix Program in VN in which Viet Cong leaders were systematically murdered under CIA auspices. And I remember the CIA coup against Allende in Chile. So, while I am a realist & understand the need for clandestine operations & operators, I cannot say the recent revelations surprise me. They are the historical norm rather than the exception, with all due respect to folks like Mrs. Wilson & Mr. Johnson. Congress, certainly, has routinely & habitually failed in its oversight responsibility, which has been just fine with most presidents over the last fifty years, who have tended to use the CIA as a political secret police force.

avatar

My first, flippant reaction, is this is Rove "Swift Boating" the CIA 'cause they've caused him such headaches.  I do feel like a helpless observer in a gigantic chess match of global proportions.  


Sidebarring to forged documents for a moment, I think the answer to all this is in the script of a recent L&O: CI...the asperger syndrome episode.  It's all in the patterns, the rule of five or whatever:  planted information, forgeries and falsehoods, and it all leads back to Rove.


What can I say, it's Friday...  As for me, I'm going to go send a bar of soap to the White House with a simple message:  Come clean, Mr. President.

It's a tempting theory, but I don't think it's the Rove hit machine at work here.  The fact that there are secret U.S. prisons for holding terrorism detainees without any scrutiny may implicate the CIA, as the agency implementing this American gulag system.  But it's fairly clear that the policy at work here comes from the White House and the Dept. of Defense.  After all, you have Cheney twisting arms in the Senate to get the CIA exempted from providing humane treatment to detainees - this story to my mind is a direct attack on the policy at the highest levels.

avatar

It would seem that the important question is who authorized these prisons to be set up?

This doesn't sound like something the CIA could just do on its own. There would need to be cooperation with the host countries at a minimum. This implies that at least the State Department was involved.

Funding for this operation would also need to be approved, so that implies some participation by legislative oversight committees as well.

Finally this would be a change in policy and it seems impossible this would happen with out explicit presidential approval.

Wondering about how the information came out is fine for political junkies, but what about the policy issues? 

avatar

Isn't it obvious?  The story is a direct reaction to Cheney's attempt to gut McCain's anti-torture bill.  The CIA was willing to do its share of torture when everyone from Army intelligence to the FBI to NSA was doing it, but if Cheney gets his way, CIA becomes the exclusive and permanent nexus of the U.S. torture policies.  The Agency might want some latitude in the area of prisoner abuse, but it doesn't want that role.


The leak was designed to make Cheney's job harder.  As a result of the article, the vote on whether or not to exempt the CIA from anti-torture laws will becomes a proxy vote on whether or not to keep the illegal CIA prisons open.  Anyone who votes to exempt the CIA is voting for the prisons.  Anyone who votes against exempting the CIA is voting to shut down the illegal prisons.  It takes the issue out of the abstract and places it firmly in reality.  


This all comes in the context of a White House in free fall, a disasterous war in Iraq, and Cheney himself firmly embroiled in the Plamegate affair.  If the Cheney exemption becomes law, the CIA gets caught holding the back when the situation disentegrates.  And why should the Agency do Cheney any favors anyway?  After all, he's the one who ordered the outing of a fellow Agent...

avatar

The Financial Times and the Financial Times Deutschland both lean on Human Rights Watch for their sourcing. One of the persons quoted from HRW says they have the means to track CIA flights. So this is a Washington-sourced story, which rules out Scenario Three.

But now with the European angle, many other reporters are keen to get onto the story. One of the sites mentioned is in northeast Poland. It's the sort of area where small jets flying in and out would likely be noticed. The other is an existing base in Romania, so activity would be less obvious.

If there are five other countries involved, don't expect this story to die down any time soon. There are simply too many interests in having it out there.

avatar

The CIA may be against it, but Bush's croney, Goss, is unning the CIA now.  Both Cheney and Goss tried to strongarm McCain.

avatar

The CIA may be against it, but Bush's croney, Goss, is running the CIA now.  Both Cheney and Goss tried to strongarm McCain.


Agreed.  That's why I think Larry's #1 take still make sense (i.e. veteran Agency guys, not the "Gosslings," leaked the info).  But I think the McCain bill was the direct motivation for veteran officers to leak the story...more than a general concern for the Agency.  I think they leaked the story with a specific purpose in mind - to influence the vote.  

avatar

It will be interesting to see what the European Union does in response to this. Will they punish member states (or prospective member states) that turn out to have been hosts for these prisons? If so, the Europeans may be able to counter the Bush administration's tactics, simply by making it clear that such abominations will not be tolerated by civilized nations like those in Europe.


It seems to me that the revelation of secret prisons will only further damage the US's reputation around the world and hinder our ability to get cooperation in Bush's "war on terror" (which increasingly seems like a war on the rule of law).

avatar

If your scenario two is correct, a nice side benefit for Republicans and neocons would be to drive a new human rights wedge between the CIA and progressives.

Progressives aren't on the side of the "CIA", they are on the side of the truth.  The support for the CIA is not across-the-board; its for the elements within the CIA that tired to get the truth out about Bush's WMD claims.  (its not like we don't know that Bolton's Chief of Staff, Fred Fleitz, was CIA....and trust me, we don't "support" Fleitz).

Its like the "alliance" between progressives and certain people and groups (like INR) in the Pentagon.   We haven't become a bunch of gung-ho militarists -- we just support those who want the truth out.

avatar

Perhaps, Prairie Sage, you feel your initial response was flippant. I believe, though, that you're spot on.


Here's a slice from the article that, at least to me, lends some credence:


The contours of the CIA's detention program have emerged in bits and pieces over the past two years. Parliaments in Canada, Italy, France, Sweden and the Netherlands have opened inquiries into alleged CIA operations that secretly captured their citizens or legal residents and transferred them to the agency's prisons.


Perhaps it's not entirely clear ...


The point: Why now?


This Dana Priest "exclusive" isn't new news. It has been reported in mainstream American media (without much traction), and the stories have been out there in the international press and on the web (also see this).


Who's been whispering in Dana Priest's ear recently? Why, suddenly, is there one (or more) official(s) willing to anonymously promote this story? How hard was it peddled?


This M.O. is definitely Rovian.

avatar

Larry Johnson's mention of the Church Committee is very telling.  One of the outgrowths of Vietman was a demoralized military and CIA.  Both institutions worked very hard to rebuild themselves.  


The actions of the Bush Administration has threatened both instutions recoveries.  Further, as things have gone wrong in Iraq Bush , or his people have hinted that the fault lies with the CIA and to a lesser extent the military.


Is it surprising that the both the CIA and the military are using retired members to get information out which tells, if not the truth, a more rounded story?

avatar

Scenario 5  -- CIA,  current and/or retired, got word to Priest because they don't want to continuing do the dirty work for DOD/military.   

With Goss in charge CIA folks have only 1 potential ally - public disclosure.  They are speaking up to protect themselves now and down the road when a political anti-torture witchhunt is inevitable. 

avatar

If your scenario two is correct, a nice side benefit for Republicans and neocons would be to drive a new human rights wedge between the CIA and progressives.


Progressives aren't on the side of the "CIA", they are on the side of the truth.  The support for the CIA is not across-the-board; its for the elements within the CIA that tired to get the truth out about Bush's WMD claims.  (its not like we don't know that Bolton's Chief of Staff, Fred Fleitz, was CIA....and trust me, we don't "support" Fleitz).


First of all, it's not a new wedge. Progressives have been up in arms for decades, all the way back to the installation of the Pahlavis in Iran and secret war in Indochina. The general point you make is indeed valid. The CIA has a mission that progressives can back: intelligence gathering is a vital interest in a world of multiple threats and international political intrigue.


Spying is a most important, if not literally legitimate, function of government. Abusing human rights, whether through incarceration, torture, incapacitation, or assassination, to further our nominal national interests, however, is an altogether different matter. It would seem that progressives realize the damage done to diplomacy through such behavior cannot be supported under any circumstance. If we want to support a message of democracy, freedom, and human rights, then it naturally follows that the creation of CIA gulags is a wholy unacceptable practice. (But, we all do know that, no?)

avatar

Scenario 2.  Bush is at war with forces within the government who see that he is a a danger to the country and must be removed or at least neutralized. Bush is a poker player who always figures he has by far the largest pot and can force all others to fold by continuously upping the ante. The disadvantage he has is the same one the US has in Iraq: the forces against Bush know who they have to strike and where, whereas Bush doesn't necessarily know who is pulling the strings to get him. The advantage he has is that he will stop at nothing and is signalling this. Why out Plame as a response to Wilson? He had the press so much on his side that Wilson's voice could ultimately amount to nothing. He was signalling the CIA and anyone else in the government who wanted to counter him that he was perfectly willing to undermine national security to protect his interests and agenda. Now, another overreaction to the Libby indictment and Reid's action. Bush is signalling that he will rip apart the CIA itself if he has to (I'm using "Bush" here as shorthand for whovever pulls the strings in this administration). The "reponsible" parties who oppose him are trying to remove him surgically, minimizing the danger to  the country. This shows that it won't work, at least not at the level currently being played. The anti-Bush forces have to see the bet and escalate.

Scenario 5 is Rathergate redux. A planted urban legend to bring down the Post, HRW, and whoever else jumps on this. Not that such camps don't exist, but if Poland, for example, were cleared, all these allegations could be tarred as "conspiracy theory" and many legitimate sources and concerns brushed aside.

avatar The entire piece sounds as if the CIA is suffering from a lack of leadership and direction. Since it's clear that their leadership resides in the White House the CIA ought to be worried about more than just their reputation being destroyed. The entire agency could be as broken as the military once Rumsfeld and Cheney are done with them. Let's not forget that this administration has the ability to mold the CIA in to whatever they want it to be thanks to the intelligence and security agencies being combined under one Homeland Security umbrella. They could disband the CIA altogether like they did to the INS after 9/11. Or they could put them in charge of all the torture/gulag duties this or any other Presidential directives will continue to ensure and give the spying and security duties over to military intelligence, the FBI, or some brand new agency they dream up. They aren't worried about salvaging the CIA's reputation or credibility or else they wouldn't be outing spies and blaming them for bad pre-war intelligence.

With three years left in office who knows what kind of damage they can dream up but whatever happens it's not likely the CIA is going to look anything like it did before Bushco. got their hands on it. So, maybe it's sheer desperation that's led the CIA to such uncharacterstic leaking. Once Cheney provided the opportunity by asking they be exempted from laws banning torture they saw this as an opportunity. They could get everything out there on the table and have their long awaited debate. Better to have it in public than not at all; and no better time than right now since things would only go downhill if Cheney's request were to be granted. 

Didn't Seymour Hersh cover this in New Yorker? I remember reading him on something like this, but mainly the extraordinary renditions. It didn't take a tip for people to observe the Gulftream jet's tail numbers.

What is interesting is the larger play given by the Post. 

Post a Comment

Inside Cafe



Cafe Features


October 6-10

Book Cover

October 13-17

Book Cover

October 20-24

Book Cover

November 17-21>

Book Cover

December 1-5

Book Cover





Book Club Archive



Masthead

Editor-in-Chief
Josh Marshall

Site Editor
Lila Shapiro

Intern
Claire Wilcox



Subscribe to TPMCafe's feed.
Subscribe to TPMCafe's reader blog feed.

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address