Slouching Towards Armageddon
It's pretty obvious that in choosing Judge Alito for the Supreme Court, George W. Bush is reinforcing his surrender to the Right by giving conservative activists exactly who and what they wanted.
As I explain on my own blog site, Alito's record should be disturbing to those Democrats who voted to confirm Roberts.
But what surprises me at this point is that the White House didn't extract a promise from conservative activists to downplay "Scalito's" Constitution-in-Exile profile. If I were in their position, I'd say: "Okay, boys and girls, we're giving you this nomination, but remember, the key talking point is 'Sam and John, John and Sam, two peas in a pod, can't vote for one without voting for the other.'"
Instead, best I can tell, the Right is out there saying: "Yeah, Alito's so much better than Roberts, Democrats will have to fight him, ain't it great?"
So, in an incredibly brief period of time, the White House has gone from trying to avoid a SCOTUS Armageddon to insisting on one.
And Republican senators, including several with tough re-election fights just ahead, are going to be forced to walk the plank.
That's the price the GOP is going to pay for the White House's temerity in offending the Almighty Base with Harriet Miers.















Malice aforethought . . . perfectly said.
October 31, 2005 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Let the Distraction Begin Anew" should be the headline.
This whole "Scooter" thing has brought the spotlight waaay to close. So, like any good sleight-of-hand artist BushCo will let the heat and rhetoric crank up somewhere else while they figure out how to avoid conspiracy charges.
Whether it's Alito or any other winger doesn't matter. They need to change the subject and the talking points are out. On CNBC they were talking about the "liberal-leaning" Arlen Spector. LIBERAL LEANING????? ARLEN SPECTOR????? Maybe because of a pro-choice position and his brush with death he won't follow the other brown shirts with the same goose-step he used to, but LIBERAL LEANING? Give me a break.
I keep saying it- don't listen to what they say- watch what they do !
October 31, 2005 9:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Alito insisted that the private possession of machine guns was not an economic activity, and there was no empirical evidence that private gun possession increased violent crime in a way that substantially affected commerce--therefore, Congress has no right to regulate it.
I'm curious why you think this is evidence against Alito rather than in favor of him. If he applies this principle consistently, that's a good thing. For example, try replacing the words "machine guns" and "gun" in the quote with "medical marijuana" and "marijuana". Or imagine the same view applied to Right-to-Die laws.
October 31, 2005 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
bush only took viguiere's advice, advice he dispensed after miers nomination and before her withdrawal...
October 31, 2005 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am thinking along similar lines Hymie. I don't want to see machine guns in the hands of the US public, but I don't see any problem with Allito's reasoning (I am no constitutional scholar). The key question to me then is he consistent in his reasoning or does he bend it to fit right-wing causes. Would he apply such reasoning to right-to-die lies?
October 31, 2005 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
The question then becomes the nature of the fight. We have learned over the last 5 years to try to avoid ideological fights like this -- the press will distort our positions, the clergy will condemn us personally, our leaders will cave and abandon us, etc.
I think this moment is the first real test of whether we've learned anything and whether the political landscape has changed since Nov 04.
I think so. Reid's leadership in the Chamber and press has been much stronger; the Republican situation is much more chaotic.
I actually think a "Justice SUnday" at this point would be our best hope -- let them try to fall back on appeasing their base and try to hide it from everyone else.
October 31, 2005 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is Bush "surrendering to the right" such a bad thing? Or, is it such an unprecedented thing? After all, Mr. Bush heads the 'right.' Naturally the conservative president is going to choose a conservative nominee; the reciprocal would hold true if a Democrat were in office. The left is naturally infuriated and disappointed by the bad luck which sees the hated Bush have the opportunity at nominating two judges to the Supreme bench. If John Kerry were president do you actually think he would pick a so-called "consensus nominee?" Absolutely not, nor likely would any president. In fact, you can probably count on one hand the number of "consensus candidates" which have EVER been confirmed to the bench. When the CEO of a company retires and must name a successor, naturally he is going to tap a trusted associate who he has confidence in. It is no different with Bush: he is the head of the GOP and will thus nominate a person who he knows shares a similar political ideology. This wishful thinking on the part of the Democrats that Bush would nominate somebody other than a conservative is as idealistic as it is unrealistic.
October 31, 2005 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
This wishful thinking on the part of the Democrats that Bush would nominate somebody other than a conservative is as idealistic as it is unrealistic.
The difference is this guy's not just a conservative, but way outside of mainstream America.
Democrats accept that a conservative Pres. gets to choose a conservative judge. That's not the issue here.
And Bill Clinton did indeed consult with GOPs and choose a consensus nominee.
October 31, 2005 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't this reasoning essentially an attack on the use of the Interstate Commerce Clause? I'm pretty inexpert, but my understanding is that a large body of progressive federal legislation is dependent upon the ability of Congress to regulate interstate commerce, so that the uniform application of Alito's reasoning would be to undo the New Deal and most other progressive elements of federal law.
October 31, 2005 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
This wishful thinking on the part of the Democrats that Bush would nominate somebody other than a conservative is as idealistic as it is unrealistic.
Giving you the benefit of the doubt that you aren't simply trolling, I'll make a couple of quick points:
a) If as you imply it was inevitable that Bush would nominate someone as conservative as Alito, please explain what the Miers nomination was about.
b) Clinton nominated Ginsburg on Republican Orrin Hatch's recommendation. How many Democrats can you name who recommended Alito?
October 31, 2005 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
This line of reasoning is at the heart of the Rehnquist revolution. It is an attempt to undo precedents stretching back to the FDR. It is used to limit all types of federal civil rights legislation and environmental legislation, and other federal regulation of business. (The quote of Roberts about the toad that never left California is about this issue -- if a toad doesn't cross state lines, Congress cannot at to protect it, the reasoning goes.) It is true that there are potentially libertarian uses of such a principle, but 1) the principle does not create a vacuum, it simply allows state governments to operate as they will, and 2) the Court has not applied the principle to drug issues including medical marijuana or right to death issues. The history of the principle is that it is exercised in favor of unregulated big business.
October 31, 2005 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am thinking along similar lines Hymie. I don't want to see machine guns in the hands of the US public, but I don't see any problem with Allito's reasoning (I am no constitutional scholar). The key question to me then is he consistent in his reasoning or does he bend it to fit right-wing causes. Would he apply such reasoning to right-to-die lies?
We're talking about the commerce clause here, and it's very shaky territory. Congress has the power to enact federal environmental law, employment law (Title VII, ADA, sexual harassment, etc.), anti-discrimination laws, health and safety laws, educational law, and criminal law based on the so-called Dormant Commerce Clause of the 10th Amendment. When Justices like Scalito claim something (like gun sales) is "non-economic" they are judging it outside the realm of Congress's regulatory power. In the process, they are attacking the Dormant Commerce Clause by weakening the definition of what is and is not "economic." The more limited the definition of "economic activity" is, the more limited Congress's power to regulate becomes.
For example: what is "economic" about the federal Clean Water Act? If you say "nothing," then Congress lacks the constitutional power to enforce it. And if that's the case, the law is off the books and it's up to the states to regulate clean water. How about: what is "economic" about enforcing anti-segregation laws? Again, if you say nothing, than the Civil Rights Act of 1964 is out the door. How about OSHA laws that protect workers? How about the Family and Medical Leave Act? If Judge Alito believes the sale of guns is non-economic, how do you think he'll view these other, more ephemeral activities? Less than favorably, I imagine.
My point is that a huge amount of Congress's authority to make laws is tied up in the Commerce Clause. Historically, this power has been an agent for (very) positive change in the US, as it has led to progressive victories in civil rights, environmental law, health and safety law, and many other areas. And despite the conservative make-up of our current federal government, it's hard to imagine that we'll be better off with states controlling all these important areas of law without federal oversight. THAT is certainly where Scalia and Thomas would like to go...
For judges like him, "states rights" is an excuse to dismantle federal regulatory structures in favor of free market corporatism. And please...don't feel comforted by the fact you live in a Blue State. Once Alabama and Arkansas are free from federal employment and health and safety laws, all those nice Blue State corporations will make a b-line for the Land of No Rules to set up shop (think: Deleware and all the corporations who make their home there because of its favorable tax structures).
Don't get sucked in by the odd medical marijuana or gun law case that makes it seem like federal regulatory power is a bad thing. Generally speaking, it is not.
October 31, 2005 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think this thread is beginning to limn the coming debate which we will win: we have twisted the original federal scheme into non-recognition in order to acheive the social ends we require. Scalia, Alita & Co. are right: the commerce clause jurispruence is fraudulent. It has been cobbled together by a judiciary that sees a legislature trying to pass responisble laws. But the truth is that the constitutional framework is totally out of date, imagining as it does the states as somehow sovereign. As a society, we have been rejecting this idea for 200 years, and the original fount is well past spent.
We will in the coming decade or two meet these conservatives fair and square on the political field, and the American people will decide whose vision they value more: their backward-looking vision of fear and despair, or our vision of a bright and hopeful future.
Seems like a slam dunk for us to win.
October 31, 2005 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let me add to your point. Federal minimum wage laws and a whole host of Federal laws have been upheld because the commerce clause. One of the things that the "Constitution in Exile" group wants to accomplish is through judicial activism to expand state and above all economic rights.
October 31, 2005 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you are right politically but the legal issues are a bit more complicated than you suggest. There are two related but separate issues. The first is as you said the commerce clause. The second is the issue of who decides. Prior to the New Deal the Supreme Court showed little deference to the Congress and struck down much of Roosevelts legislation. After his court packing scheme failed the Supreme Court saw the error of its was and found that if Congress acted in a reasonable manner they would defer to the elected branch of government.
What this thread and Bush's actions all suggest how phoney the Republicans really are. All this talk about originalism and judicial restraint is about justifying results you like. If Republicans really believed what they said they would want a bench full of Souters.
October 31, 2005 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
On the machine gun case, it's worth noting that it was decided after Lopez, which tightened the standards as to what could be regulated under the Commerce Clause. The Lopez standard was binding on Alito as a subordinate-court judge.
October 31, 2005 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with your points regarding efforts of the conservatives to limit the power of the commerce clause as an effort to destroy the regulatory power of the feds. It actually goes hand in hand with the conservative judicial reanimation of sovereign immunity under the XI Amendment which seeks to take the teeth out of regulatory legislation.
That being said, I have a minor quibble with the notion that the commerce clause impacts the ability of Congress to enact civil rights legislation. Congressional authority to enact civil rights legislation derives from the XIV Amendment clause 5 stating that Congress shall have the authority to enforce the provisions of the XIV amendment through legislation. As such, that amendment specifically grants authority to Congress to regulate the behavior of the states in terms of civil rights.
October 31, 2005 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why do you say that Bush is "surrendering" to the Right? He (and obviously his handlers Cheney, Rove, etc.) is clearly a die-hard right winger himself. More to the point, this seems like a pretty simple strategy - re-energize the base now and then they have another year before the midterm elections to pretend to tack back towards the middle and present a more "moderate" or "compassionate" conservative face to the voters. And odds are most Americans will buy it ... again.
October 31, 2005 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
For reference, while Brown was decided under the 14th Amendment, the two seminal cases upholding the Civil Rights Act, Katzenbach v. McClung and Heart of Atlanta Motel v U.S., were decided solely under the Commerce Clause. I think this is probably because the Court did not find it necessary to overturn its previous decisions in the 1870s and 1880s finding that the 14th Amendment did not apply to private discrimination. I haven't read either case since law school, but the Commerce Clause is extremely important to civil rights legislation, particularly in the area of private conduct.
I also think the Commerce Clause/Constitution in Exile can be a strong argument. Not an esoteric legal argument - bud does America want judges who believe that Clean Water and Air is unconstitional? Does America want judges who believe the minimum wage is unconstitional? How about workplace safety laws or maximum hour legislation? or the Civil Rights Act?
October 31, 2005 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're talking about the commerce clause here, and it's very shaky territory. Congress has the power to enact federal environmental law, employment law (Title VII, ADA, sexual harassment, etc.), anti-discrimination laws, health and safety laws, educational law, and criminal law based on the so-called Dormant Commerce Clause of the 10th Amendment. When Justices like Scalito claim something (like gun sales) is "non-economic" they are judging it outside the realm of Congress's regulatory power. In the process, they are attacking the Dormant Commerce Clause by weakening the definition of what is and is not "economic." The more limited the definition of "economic activity" is, the more limited Congress's power to regulate becomes
Just for the sake of clarity the cases being discussed involve interpretation of the Commerce Clause, located in Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution.
(The so-called Dormant Commerce Clause is a constitutional principle under which the Supreme Court can strike down state legislation that interferes with interstate commerce even though Congress has not affirmatively used its Commerce Clause authority to pass federal legislation that overrides the offending state laws.)
( In addition to the Commerce Clause, there are other areas of constitutional jurisprudence that deal with the limits of federal regulation to infringe on state autonomy - specifically a line of cases under the 11th amendment).
As constitutional jurisprudence has evolved, the Commerce Clause became the catch-all font of authority for almost all federal regulation that has been passed since the New Deal era. From the 1930s until the mid 1990s, the Court granted Congress tremendous deference as to what constituted an activity that impacted interstate commerce. In the past decade, the Rehnquist Court began striking down federal regulation that it deemed to be "non-economic." However, the Court did not go nearly as far as Scalia and especially Thomas wanted to, which would be to turn back the clock to the pre-New Deal limitations on federal authority.
In essence, what Alito's position on the commerce clause represents is an effort by conservatives to accomplish judicially what they cannot accomplish democractically with respect to radically reducing federal regulatory state. It signals that Alito is not a judge who "merely interprets law," but rather a right-wing judicial activist who has no compunction about using judicial authority to neutralize democratically enacted legislation.
October 31, 2005 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mr Kilgore, by nominating Mr Alito.. it appears he has put you and Armando and Kos and Marshall Wittman on the same page.
Maybe this pick will end up uniting the various squabbling factions of the Democratic Party and form them into a cohesive opposition.
October 31, 2005 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
"So, in an incredibly brief period of time, the White House has gone from trying to avoid a SCOTUS Armageddon to insisting on one."
Right! And so why is this, do you suppose? One thought is that this is Bush's (childishly temperamental) payback to those WingNuts who shot down Meiers.
I've "assumed" that Bush's attempt to avoid Armageddon was a thoughtful and intelligent attempt to succeed in gaining approval for his nomination. So I am now convinced that he will lose more than 5 Moderate Republican Senators on this "raw meat" thrown to the WingNuts; thereby castrating any chance for the "nuclear option" itself (not to mention eliminating any chance for avoiding a Democratic filibuster). And I believe Karl at least is smart enough to predict this.
So it looks to me like a slap-down from Bush to the WingNuts, disguised as a capitulation (can we all spell Machiavelli?).
October 31, 2005 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
<i><span class="Apple-style-span">If John Kerry were president do you actually think he would pick a so-called "consensus nominee?" Absolutely not, nor likely would any president. </i></span><span class="Apple-style-span">
</span><span class="Apple-style-span">Clinton did, more than once. QED. What's radical is Bush's departure from the "advise and consent" process that was so carefully framed in our Constitution. Notice that "consent" and "consensus" have a lot in common. </span>
October 31, 2005 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
It seems pretty obvious that the Commerce Clause is being stretched to absurd lengths, and it also seems obvious that the federal government should have the authority to regulate the environment and sundry issues. So why isn't there a movement afoot to amend the Constitution and redraw the state/federal line to fit modern facts (and accord with overwhelming public opinion)? Or is there one that I've missed? Perhaps we're afraid pursuing an amendment would be a tacit concession that conservatives are right about the Commerce Clause?
October 31, 2005 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
BRIAN OC:
The Miers nomination was Bush's idea of gender equality. There certainly was pressure for him to nominate a woman or a minority, an argument which is being waged by the left after Alito's nomination. Clearly the president, for whatever reason, was not comfortable with the short list of women candidates, Ms. Clement at the top. Miers has been a long time friend and ally and as we have seen throughout Bush's presidency, he rewards those who are loyal; very reminiscent of Jefferson Davis, president of the Confederate States of America. Bush's justification for Miers lack of judicial experience comes from precedent. Several Supreme Court judges of yesteryear had no prior judicial experience: Rehnquist, Warren, etc. Make no mistake about it: the Miers fiasco had nothing to do with her credentials. It had everything to do with the angry Republican base. After her resignation, Bush was essentially put in a lose/lose situation. He could a)retaliate against his base by picking a consensus nominee, or b)appease his base by nominating an uber-conservative. The former would damage his image within his own party most likely beyond repair and would likely compromise the rest of his presidency in terms of legislative support. The latter option would bring out a firestorm of criticism from the left. While neither option is desirable, if alienation of one party is essential, he certainly would not direct it toward his own party; to do so would be political suicide. As I've said before, the Democrats indulged themselves by keeping quiet and letting the Republicans in-fight for a change. In reality, they should have SUPPORTED the Miers nomination whole-heartedly because that would have a)shocked the Republican base by supporting the president, thus causing even further in party fighting, and b)given them as close to a consensus candidate as Bush would ever allow. But Democrats hate Bush so much that they could not even support him on the one issue where it would have helped them. And the result is Alito. The hearings will be brutal, but make no mistake, his confirmation is guaranteed.
November 1, 2005 7:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Plainly he wasn't. He has been, as you point out, hamstrung - by himself - into doing so. Thus it wasn't simply in the nature of party politics that Alito has been nominated. It was as a direct consequence of Bush's shortsighted cronyism re. Miers that he backed himself into a corner.
And of course you didn't even try to rebut the point that Ginsburg was recommended to Clinton by a Republican. Thus plainly setting a standard for one party that the other was unable to match.
In reality, they should have SUPPORTED the Miers nomination whole-heartedly because that would have ... b)given them as close to a consensus candidate as Bush would ever allow. But Democrats hate Bush so much that they could not even support him on the one issue where it would have helped them.
Isn't it the accepted meme that the Democrats have no principles and will bend and sway in accordance with the political expediency of the hour? Here you find an instance where Democrats on principle simply reserve judgement (in general) on Miers, and for this they are also castigated.
Moreover your argument (that with stauncher Democratic support Miers would have been confirmed) simply flies in the face of the facts - that conservative opposition to her was deep and deepening, and would have completely metastasised in response to all-round Democratic approval.
Generally your arguments in combination amount to an extremely weak apologia for Bush's mishandling of the nomination. Is this really the best you can do?
November 1, 2005 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
BRIANCOC:
It isn't so much apologia as it is pointing out his justifications. Perhaps the Miers nomination was cronyism as you suggest. Even assuming it was, so what? The bottom line is Harriet Miers is a centrist when compared with the far right Alito. The entire premise of the cronyism argument is that of a moral nature and nothing more. As we all know, moral arguments do not go very far in Washington; and never have. My point here is that Bush was under pressure to nominate a woman to replace Sandra Day O'Connor. He clearly did so with Miers. The argument being waged by you is that she was not qualified and is nothing more than a presidential bedfellow (for lack of a better term); which is, in essence, a moral, qualitative argument. Even if it was cronyism, she was still fairly moderate and as I mentioned in my previous post, her credentials should have little or no bearing on the nomination because there are already plenty of precedents for ill experienced Supreme Court nominations (and confirmations for that matter). Did Bush back himself into a corner as you suggest? I do not believe so. I believe his base backed him into a corner. His greatest error, as I see it, is that he assumed (incorrectly as it were) that he could persuade his party to trust him and go along with his decision of picking Harriet Miers. Once the GOP rejected her nomination and put pressure on her to resign, Bush was forced to either alienate the GOP or the DEMS. The choice was never in doubt. You obviously do not agree with my assessment that Democratic support of Miers would have genuinely hurt the GOP. I think it would have. It would have put the "behind the scenes" Republican leaders in a very tough spot. Furthermore, it is the Democrats who constantly argue that Bush himself is no more than a puppet leader for these "behind the scenes" men like Karl Rove and Dick Cheney, by whose assumption is that Democrats will always disagree with their president; thus freeing them to pull Bush's strings whichever direction they choose. If the DEMS had supported the president, however, these men would have had little choice but to drop their opposition to Miers, otherwise risk public isolation against the Democrats and the president. I consider myself to be a Libertarian with Republican leanings and I can tell you truthfully that the DEMS were given a real opportunity to hurt the GOP here and either did not realize it or hesitated to act.
November 1, 2005 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
TOMB:
Yes, Bill Clinton picked somewhat of a "consensus" candidate. The point, however, is certainly debatable because the support for Justice Ginsburg was by no means overwhelming on the right. Furthermore, I posed that John Kerry would not nominate a consensus candidate, I made no mention of Bill Clinton in that particular context. The point I'm making is simple: Democrats would have been better off supporting the Miers nomination. This is fairly cut and dried and the only reason this supposition is drawing critisism is because things have not, and will not, work out to the left's favor. Alito will have an awful confirmation hearing, but he will get the confirmed because there is simply no logical grounds for the Democrats to fillibuster his nomination. 15 years on the Federal bench, and while he certainly has conservative leanings, he has not been as far to the right on the key issues as most on the left are crying. Roe V Wade will not be over-turned, we all know that. These scare tactics will have very little influence.
November 2, 2005 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink