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The Next Conservative Crackup?

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Right-wingers aren't going to be happy about the choice of Council of Economic Advisers chairman Ben Bernanke to take over for Alan Greenspan at the Fed. One reason is that Bernanke insisted over the summer that Social Security privatization be coupled with changes to make the program solvent, undercutting the free-lunch crowd's efforts to try to maximize damage to the system without any tax increases or benefit cuts. They also won't be happy that finalist and tax cut fetishist Glenn Hubbard was passed over. But most of all, they will be much chagrined to learn that, wait for it... as chairman of the economics department at Princeton, Bernanke recruited Paul Krugman from MIT.


As Kevin Drum would say, "More popcorn, please!"


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he recruited passionate paul...? ooooo... kiss of death...

For those of us who are proud when our checkbooks balance, can you explain why Paul Krugman is bad for the neos?  Thanks

For those of us who are proud when our checkbooks balance, can you explain why Paul Krugman is bad for the neos?  Thanks

  1. Krugman is a neo-Keynesian -- he believes government spending can be good for the economy, and doesn't place as high a priority on monetary policy.  Monetarism provides the theoretical underpinnings that justify the conservative mania for tax cuts.

  2. He's Krugman.

Like the Miers nomination, I think people on the left are overestimating the problems this will cause Bush.  From looking at Bernanke's record, he's going to be fine with Wall Street, and that's what Bush wanted.  Not too many other people understand or care about the subject enough to get all excited about it.  

This can't be coincidence. Why is Bush suddenly willing to shirk his base for the first time in his presidency? He knows after Miers that they are unhappy with him. What's up?

Back in August, National Review Online published an article saying Bernanke was the wrong guy for conservatives. We'll have to see how they react in the next few days.

I haven't seen the New Yorker yet--and I've been a little mad at Stan, my mailman carrier because everybody else seems to get it on Monday, but my copy comes on Tuesday at the earliest--but Scowcroft coming out as clearly as has been reported may be part of the mainline conservative damage control project.

I've seen at least one reference to the neo-cons as "liberals with guns."  We may see a sudden discovery among the paleo and big business conservatives that they've been nursing a cuckoo.  The neo-cons may be made the fall-guys, turned out of the administration and not allowed to Grover's meetings anymore.  

Faint hints of anti-semitism and East Coast elites (as well as fainter references to Straussian mysticism) should be the order of the day.

Rove goes. Libby goes. Jim Baker comes back to put things together again. That rumor about Cheney turns out to be true--roundabout the May or June timeframe Condi gets a promotion. Powell is put in charge of a "make foreign policy  governance effective" blue ribbon panel. Rumsfeld resigns and James Schlesinger gets dusted off.  Foreign initiatives are begun to get the blame for Iraq spread around, and by the time the nomination for president rolls around, guys like Lugar and Hatch are back in the driver's seat, essentially conceding the 2008 WH term to (they hope fervently) Hillary to fail to clean up the enormous messes that are left.

43 gets to ride his bicycle as much as he wants, and Baker clears his speeches.  There'll have to be a Christmas-time showdown in Kennebunkport, perhaps involving some hardball--revelations that would pain Dad to let get out, but, there it is..... (I mentioned earlier that this is all way too much like another Family for my taste.)  I doubt Jeb would come up explicitly, but the damage being done to the family name might well. 

The only trouble with this scenario is the movement conservatives. A way would have to be found to buy them off.  Their leadership has shown themselves to be pliable enough, though. Perhaps O'Connor could be asked to stay on through April or so, and then the red meat choice the wingers want could be unveiled, and coordinated properly, this time.

 

Why is Bush suddenly willing to shirk his base for the first time in his presidency?

For one reason because they have nowhere else to go.  But really, I think it's very smart, incredibly pragmatic.

The GOP long term strategy seems basically to charm their way into office when they can, and then try and push a radical right agenda, like SS reform, church and state, or imperialism. Two out of three isn't bad, they've done a lot of damage.

Looking at the long term, now would be the worst time for them to push it. If the Republicans try and force too much now while the public is watching and already displeased, they're just asking for a hard backlash later. Anything they do now which is out of the mainstream can have long lasting consequences in public opinion for the GOP.

So, their optimal path presently seems towards moderation, minimizing the mainstream fallout, while retrenching for their next attempt to privatize SS or whatever down the road.

Makes perfect sense.

This is the Fed Chair for crying out loud.

 There is only one constituency that matters when it comes it to a fed chair:

 Will the market support the chairman?

 The appointment of a crony, or an ideologue would wreak havoc on US and world financial markets.

 Hmmm.... angry conservatives or wall street crash.  Seriously, it is an easy choice.  Appealing to the base is hardly the first consideration when it comes to naming a fed chair.  The health of the entire global economy depends on a competent fed chair.

I don't agree that Bernanke's nomination will spur a rightwing crackup.  To be frank, I think wingers are fairly shaken at this point.  They don't want to have to defend another terrible Bush selection.  Moreover, even the wingnuttiest of the wingnuts understands (on some level) that the country is on the brink of fiscal disaster.  While Bernanke might not be the perfect idealogue, at least he's got the qualifications to steer the American economy through turbulent seas.


Increasingly, it looks like the Miers pick will hurt Bush because he may lose.  At the end of the day, that's what counts, regardless of what the eggheads at the corner say.


It's hard to imagine him losing on Bernanke...

For years Bush has followed his advisors advice, and has paid little attention to governing.  Now he sees that it is all working poorly. 

So he wants to do something new.  He is not a stupid man, regardless of what any of you think, just a little short of attention.  And he believes he has great instincts.  So it's time to apply the Bush instincts. 

It means, he is going to appoint mostly from the crowd he knows well. 

What's up?


It's the real Bush.


He's a lame duck now and can do what he wants.


He's not an evil genius, he's a wacky, incompetent moderate on some issues/conservative on others, who goes on gut instinct and is too trusting of his ability to judge people and isn't curious. He goes by what he learned in MBA school and what the people he trusts tells him and in God.


Many on the left and the right in the blogsophere echo chambers and talking headdom spun themselves into a confused tizzy about Bush by carefully constructing narrative plots (such things as him being in on the radical Christian fundie agenda to bring the end time to Jerusalem or him being sold on the entire theoretical neo-con agenda) and ignorning info. coming out contrary to the picture they were painting (like Bush in Woodward's book saying "no, Aghanistan first" to the calls from Rummy et. al. to invade Iraq on 9/12/01, or Bush telling his friend on the phone that he didn't like the gay bashing that Dobson types do.) I, for one, saw this kind of thing on the blogosphere all the time, and also among the more left and right opinion journals like National Review and The Nation. Cherry picking to create a vision of Bush that didn't seem real if you read a more balanced view in the major newspapers or news magazine over time. Taking the stories about Bush that fit your narrative, and discarding the reports showing another side, leaves you surprised when he shows his true colors.


I was never surprised by many of his more moderate decisions; I was also never suprised by his incompetent ones based on the great store he puts on his ability to judge people and his lack of interest in learning; except for the grand theme of the Iraq war, when I saw him make a radical move, I always looked for the interest group that he was trying to pander to and usually found one.


All previous decisions he made had to take into account coalition building; that's how you win, especially with the Electoral Collage.


Perhaps Barack Obama recently said what I am trying to say much better; he's talking about the left, but I think that the same goes for many righties who created their own vision of Bush:


....According to the storyline that drives many advocacy groups and Democratic activists - a storyline often reflected in comments on this blog - we are up against a sharply partisan, radically conservative, take-no-prisoners Republican party.  They have beaten us twice by energizing their base with red meat rhetoric and single-minded devotion and discipline to their agenda.  In order to beat them, it is necessary for Democrats to get some backbone, give as good as they get, brook no compromise, drive out Democrats who are interested in "appeasing" the right wing, and enforce a more clearly progressive agenda.  The country, finally knowing what we stand for and seeing a sharp contrast, will rally to our side and thereby usher in a new progressive era.


I think this perspective misreads the American people.  From traveling throughout Illinois and more recently around the country, I can tell you that Americans are suspicious of labels and suspicious of jargon.  They don't think George Bush is mean-spirited or prejudiced, but have become aware that his administration is irresponsible and often incompetent.  They don't think that corporations are inherently evil (a lot of them work in corporations), but they recognize that big business, unchecked, can fix the game to the detriment of working people and small entrepreneurs.  They don't think America is an imperialist brute, but are angry that the case to invade Iraq was exaggerated, are worried that we have unnecessarily alienated existing and potential allies around the world, and are ashamed by events like those at Abu Ghraib which violate our ideals as a country.


It's this non-ideological lens through which much of the country viewed Judge Roberts' confirmation hearings....

Certainly the National Review hates his lack of supply side credentials:


Bernanke recently weighed in with his opinions on the economy in the Journal, and while he lauded tax cuts, free trade, and legal reform, a supply-sider he is not. His views on how tax cuts impact the economy, his odd interest in demand charts, and not to mention his discredited beliefs about "limits" to growth and "full" employment, should have Bush supporters concerned.


About taxes, Bernanke spoke of "fiscal stimulus" that has diminished "in the past few quarters." Bernanke is clearly in the Keynesian camp on taxes, holding that they should be reduced during times of slack demand and increased when economic growth reaches its natural "limits." While Keynesians see tax cuts through a demand-driven, short-term stimulus prism in which their impact gradually recedes, supply-siders encourage marginal rate cuts for their long-term (and continuous) incentive effects on economic activity. The distinction between the two schools of thought is crucial, particularly given the growing influence of the Fed on Capitol Hill.


But if you visit wingnut central at Restate.org, you they're almost relieved that he's not another Brownie.  Again, the wingers don't want another fight.  They won't pick one with Bernanke:


Finally, it should be noted that Mr. Bernanke is eminently qualified for the position. This is a man who has worked in a myriad of high level academic and public policy positions, including as a Governor at the Federal Reserve Board. This is an appointment that should be confirmed easily and bipartisanly.

Thanks Luigi, that gives me a start

For years Bush has followed his advisors advice, and has paid little attention to governing.  Now he sees that it is all working poorly. 

So he wants to do something new.  He is not a stupid man, regardless of what any of you think, just a little short of attention.  And he believes he has great instincts.  So it's time to apply the Bush instincts. 

It means, he is going to appoint mostly from the crowd he knows well. 

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