IRAQ: Mommy and Daddy Are Fighting
Just like a doomed relationship between a wife beater and a woman knocked senseless too many times, the Kurds are discovering that they are in a bad marriage with an abusive spouse. According to various press reports Kurdish leaders, including President Talabani, have complained to Shia Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari that the coalition's Shia parties, known as the United Alliance, are welching on promises to start work on resettling Kurds in the northern city of Kirkuk and to fairly distribute government positions between the coalition parties.
Gee whiz. The Shias promised to share and now they, by virtue of their status as the majority population in Iraq, are laying claim to their self-perceived right to rule the country as they please. It seems that the Kurds have fallen victim to the same fantasy based approach to policy and politics in Iraq that afflicts the Bush Administration.
Wait! It gets worse. Friends in the intelligence community tell me that some of the more moderate Shias are beginning to grumble because Shia groups allied with Iran are becoming more assertive. In short, Iran will do whatever it takes to ensure that it's supporters in Iraq come out on top.
Notwithstanding the loud whistling past the graveyard of Iraqi democracy by Bush Administration offiicials and neo-con cheerleaders, the central fact is that the upcoming election to ratify the Iraqi Constitution will do nothing to solve the insurgency and civil war. In fact, regardless of the outcome on October 15, the Iraqi civil war will continue.
The reality of the civil war and the failure of the Iraqi Army to serve as a credible force for the security of the new nation trying to emerge will hit the world square between the eyes. Our senior political and military officials in the United States continued insistence on proclaiming that black is white and up is down is hurting both the American and the Iraqi peoples. We cannot keep saying the Iraqi military is getting stronger when the number of units capable of operating independently decline. We cannot keep saying we are winning the war on terrorism when the number of terrorist attacks keeps increasing and the number of jihadist terrorists expands. And, we cannot continue to describe what is going on in Iraq as the "birth of democracy".
This kind of delusional mindset may be tolerated in the rubber rooms of psychiatric hospitals but it has no place in the White House or the Green Zone. It would appear that the Kurdish leaders are finally waking up to confront what has been the reality for almost two years--i.e., that the Shia are in a strong position to control the new Iraq and will assert their power in support of their own kind. Maybe President Talabani can talk some sense to President Bush, Secretary of State Rice, General Casey, and General Abizaid about the reality on the ground in Iraq. Until then, we'll just have to grit our teeth as we watch the "wife beaters" run amuck while our leaders sing the praises of family harmony in Iraq. This is beyond sad, it is dangerous.














What's most remarkable and disheartening is that the people who predicted all this are still marginalized as unrealistic lefty crackpots, the same cast of liars and fakes who predicted cake-walk are on TV, and the Democratic Senate that voted to give Rummie carte blanche is still offering deference to the Prez.
The US has screwed up many times before, but never has the "falling up" culture been so powerful.
October 2, 2005 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I told you so. Now that I have that said, let us proceed. From before the Iraq invasion until now the only people who have consistently been right about Iraq have been the leftists, the progressives, the liberals, the peaceniks, etc. In other words the group that continues to be marginalized by the Democratic Party, that is disrespected daily in blogs such as this one, that is constantly being told we just don't understand politics, is the only group that seems to have understood from the start just how bad the Iraq invasion would turn out. So, I guess that means we libruls should shut up and respect the losers in the party.
October 2, 2005 8:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Larry,
Thanks once again for a great post with a straightforward message, a candle of light in a dark night of unrealistic platitudes and wishful thinking.
Bush and his cheerleaders seem to be burying their heads in the sand hoping the hungry lion that is standing right behind them will evaporate and go away. When the lion is hungry it usually does not evaporate and only goes away after it has eaten its fill.
I can only assume that Bush really does not care what happens in Iraq, while the flunkies that orbit about his head tell him “Oh my, George, you are doing a splendid job, a splendid job.” That may go over big with George who has a habit of punishing any of his faithful who dare to criticize his policy but it does not make a hit with people who believe in facing the hard lessons of life with their eyes open and brains working.
But why should we expect anything more from a president whose whole life consists of jumping over low hurtles with the aid of his rich patrons? No wonder George Bush does not want to look back, instead he tells himself to just move on. The man does not even have the fortitude to speak with a mother who lost her son to this misbegotten war. Boy that Cindy Sheehan sure looks like a dangerous desperado. If Bush cannot even do that, how is he ever going to face up to his failures in Iraq?
October 3, 2005 2:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Somewhat off the topic-
But I've read that leading up to the Constitutional referendum, the occupation troops have set-up Shia and Kurd death squads to kill the non-violent Sunni leaders who oppose the constitution and the occupation. Seems to fit-in with the stepped-up military operations in the Sunni areas by the occupation toops.
Does anyone know what's in this constitution that would make the US so hot about getting it ratified on October 17? Or is this just for American consumption so Bush can point to another milestone on the road to democracy in Iraq?
October 3, 2005 4:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have long feared one of two outcomes of this constitutional process: Violence or Massive Violence.
Is there any way out of this mess for the Iraqi's, or are we now to a point where they are literally on a collision course that only they can resolve? In other words, does a full-fledged, violent, deadly civil war now have to play itself out, before real political solutions can be enacted? And if so, how can our presence be anything but fuel for the ever-growing fire?
October 3, 2005 8:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
The issues in Iraq can be solved through competent mediation. Unfortunately, the US is in no position to be viewed as a competent and unbiased mediator. Thus, there is little to nothing that continued US presence can do to defuse the impending conflagration.
October 3, 2005 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
wystler:
What information, flowing from Iraq at this time, indicates that 'competent mediation' will heal the scars of years of abuse, of distrust and of out and out hate? I would hope you are correct, but if your statement is true - do the three players: Shiite, Sunni and Kurds agree that all it takes is mediation. You first have to have willing and able (meaning able to speak for each group) leaders willing to engage in a 'competent mediation'.
I agree we can't do it. But I am not sure anyone can, because I don't think the political climate of the antagonists in this conflict are willing or able to do so.
October 3, 2005 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, I'm not certain that this mediation will occur. I'm not even certain that there are only three aggrieved parties. Still, the potential for non-violent resolution exists, though the US cannot successfully participate as mediator.
October 3, 2005 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I assume Iraqi leaders no longer expect that the US is going to fix the mess. So what are Iraqi leaders getting ready for?
While the political and military get the attention, who amongst the Iraqis are looking to deal with the realities of daily life (oil, water, electriity, sewage, rebuilding the bombed out areas, etc). They have to recognize that the US has been unable to fix, even improve any of these.
Thks again for analysis that cuts through the garbage.
October 10, 2005 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink