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The New Electioneering

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This is certainly intriguing:

In the early morning, U.S. and Iraqi forces clashed with gunmen loyal to radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, killing at least eight Iraqis in an east Baghdad slum. The clash was certain to heighten tensions between U.S. and Iraqi security forces and followers of al-Sadr, who is building opposition to the country's new constitution, which will be put to voters in an Oct. 15 referendum. . . .

Al-Sadr, whose al-Mahdi Army has refrained from confrontations with the U.S. military since their last battle in August 2004, also sided with the Sunnis in objecting to the constitution.

Overcoming opposition from al-Sadr is seen as key to securing the necessary votes.

But the task has become increasingly difficult after British forces arrested two al-Mahdi Army officials in the southern city of Basra about a week ago. Militiamen and residents also clashed with British troops days later after two British soldiers were detained by Iraqi authorities.

Suffice it to say that there's something a bit unorthodox about simultaneously courting someone's support at the ballot box and waging gun battles with his followers. You can see how this might work, though, in a classic carrots-and-sticks manner. Offer Sadr some role in the government if he plays ball with the constitution, but make it clear that we'll shoot at him if he doesn't support ratification. On the other hand, referenda don't wind up being very democratic if you get them to pass by threatening to shoot and kill political parties who oppose them. California politics, however, would be a lot more interesting were we to adopt this model here at home.


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First, I think Matthew has the wrong link - here is the story to which he refers.

Second, I think a fair reading of the story doesn't support Matthew's analysis.  The story says that US forces went to arrest three members of Sadr's forces (the reason for the arrests is not given).  Thus, we were not "mak[ing] it clear that we'll shoot at him if he doesn't support ratification".  Moreover, it does not even seem that we went there with the intent of "waging gun battles with [Sadr's] followers"; rather, we went to enforce and arrest warrant, and that only turned into a gun battle once Sadr's followers attacked US troops.

So, the inference that we are "threatening to shoot and kill political parties who oppose [the Constitution]" is completely unjustified.

"California politics, however, would be a lot more interesting were we to adopt this model here at home."


Now I have an image in my head of Arnold with a machine gun mowing down crowds of nurses...

I highly doubt that anyone there is taking this 'constitution' travesty seriously, especially Al-Sadr. Constitution ratified under occupation obviously isn't worth paper it's printed on; politicians operating under and supported by the occupation are a bunch of dead men; everything will have to be fought out sooner or later anyhow.

Salam Pax is taking it seriously, well, as seriously with someone with his down-to-earth sense of humor can.

>>> The story says that US forces went to arrest three members of Sadr's forces (the reason for the arrests is not given).  Thus, we were not "mak[ing] it clear that we'll shoot at him if he doesn't support ratification".    1.  Maybe there was no reason for the arrests other than intimidation - impilicit in the intimidation could be a message to fall in line or else.   2.  Why was the US Army going in at all, in the first place - the Iraqi forces would be perfectly capable of carrying out the arrest? Could it be to send home the same implicit message?
Now I have an image in my head of Arnold with a machine gun mowing down crowds of nurses...
Yes, but they were all bad.

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