TPMCafe
« Is Bush Overwhelmed? | Home | Loss of Dept Union Rights Makes More Katrinas Likely »

thinking about disaster

user-pic

No one wants to focus on finger-pointing while people are on rooftops begging for help, people can't get medical care, people are going without food or water, people are mourning their losses. But it's forward-looking and important to insist that the Administration make clear instantly its priorities, its means of accomplishing those priorities, its expectations for outcomes. We have no enemy except confusion, fear, malign nature, and doubt. We haven't been attacked by a foreign power or a terrorist group from which we must hide our intentions. Our leaders can then talk openly about what is to be done -- putting aside politics and speaking frankly. The action plan then would be something like this:

First, our leaders -- those who control the fisc, the military, the law --  should lay out the priorities among the conflicting claims, which include at least saving those in dire straits, policing against crime, feeding the unfed, housing the unhoused, sanitizing the unsanitary, fueling the empty gas tanks, and rebuilding the national distribution networks for everything from grain to oil. Is there a sequence of action in the short term? Do we have different folks in charge of different activities? Do we have different expectations for each priority?

(By way of pale comparison, when I was in government a severe earthquake occurred in the San Fernando Valley. A first order of business in the communications industry was to prioritize who would call whom, and that plan was put into effect immediately. It was not invented out of whole cloth; it had already been thought through in abstract and it was implemented with minor changes. I suppose the same is possible now.)

Second, because the possibility of a hurricane flooding New Orleans has been long predicted and feared, there's no doubt that the various choices for longer term response can be articulated in short order. Should the city be evacuated for months and rebuilt from scratch; should it be re-occupied in part much sooner and repaired around people; should a new site be picked; should the levee system be rebuilt before anything else is done; and so on. Explaining these strategic choices to all of us, and articulating what seems right, permitting comment and discussion, is exactly the right thing for leaders to do in an open society. Is that what the authorities plan, or will they operate in secret, holding clandestine meetings among various special interests, and revealing their answer when it suits them?

Third, is the primary goal, after immediate rescue and hospital care, putting people's lives back together and letting them make decisions on their own, or is it to exercise authority over them through businesses or governments? This is not an abstract question. It is the difference between, for example, giving a cash grant to victims and letting them make decisions about how to spend it, and telling them where they must go and what they must do. Either way, money must be spent by all of us to help some of us. But the method matters a great deal. And if it is decided to help people act, not tell people what to do, is the help to be provided per capita, according to magnitude of loss, per family, or according to some other measurement? This was intrinsic to the remedies process after the World Trade Center attacks; at least one book has been written about it; it's not uncharted territory. What is the government's best thinking?

Fourth, what are the follow-on possibilities that are the worst? These are the eventualities that must be immediately forestalled to the degree humanly possible. That is the lesson Alan Greenspan taught; it should be put into action now. These include shocks to the economy, epidemics, widespread profiteering, and other conceivable calamities. As we know see with respect to Iraq, it serves no one to ignore the worst possibilities, pretending for political purposes that they do not exist.

Fifth, it should be emphasized that individuals acting alone, or with families and friends, churches, and communities can do more to help themselves than government, especially from Washington, can by directing them in detail. They need some help, some resources, some information, but if they can be pointed toward affordable food and available clean water, decent medical care, and some choices for housing -- and if they are given some money -- we can be confident they will invent ways to put their lives back together, overcoming tragedy and loss, that a distant government will never come up with. I refer to what is to be done after people are rescued from rooftops and saved from drowning. But the sooner folks are given the tools with which to tackle their problems the better off they will be. So let's have the government explain right away, not later, how the tools -- including cash grants, gas vouchers, food vouchers, and so forth -- are  going to be provided to everyone right away. Surely such a plan was prepared in advance, and indeed already exists for every contingency in every geographical area.


25 Comments

| Leave a comment

With so many lives in immediate peril (750+ lives on this page aalone in imminent peril -- 300 in a church, 400 in a college dorm, all without food and water or any sign of help or relief -- http://www.nola.com/weblogs/nola/index.ssf?/mtlogs/nola_nolaview/
archives/2005_09.html#075759 ), I have to wonder if today is the day to concentrate military power and communication on fighting looting.

Great plans, Reed. This is what the military does. This is what business does. It's even what some parts of the executive branch do. (I've done this sort of planning at a smaller scale for environmental cleanups.)

But it doesn't seem to be what Bush and his people do. We can hope, I guess...

Now should not be the time, as Kevin Drum of the Washington Monthly has noted, for the politics of blame. In the wake of Katrina's devastation along the Gulf Coast, Americans should be united in providing relief, resources and support to all in need.

But sadly, that massive relief effort will take place during a time of divisive and fundamental debate about the very meaning of national unity in the United States. As New Orleans struggles for survival, the President and his amen corner are waging a full scale assault on the Estate Tax, what they derisively (and effectively )term the "Death Tax." They will continue to pursue this massive transfer of the U.S. treasury to America's wealthiest, even as a mountain of evidence shows that successive Bush budget cuts devastated New Orleans' disaster preparedness and levee maintenance...

For the full story, see: "New Orleans Pays the Death Tax."

You say we haven't been attacked by a foreign power or terrorist group.  Don't let that disguise the fact we have been attacked.  We've been attacked by a domestic enemy, insidious and well-coordinated.  A group of Americans has infiltrated the centers of power in government and media and attacked us systemmically.  They have broken up and fed upon the fruits produced by the liberal governments of the post WWII era. 

Now, we are rotting from within, depleted.  Our national resources have been diverted to the benefit of the corporate oligarchy and the whims of that child in the White House playing "army."

As I said earlier, elections have consequences.  The people who hate government have gotten control of goverment and have been starving it (while pocketing the good bits for themselves). 

Wake up, America.  The enemy is here.

Now should not be the time, as Kevin Drum of the Washington Monthly has noted, for the politics of blame.  TheAngyOne

James Wolcott disagrees.

Wait to point out whose greed and incompetence left New Orleans undefended and there won't be an audience. 

"Now should not be the time, as Kevin Drum of the Washington Monthly has noted, for the politics of blame. In the wake of Katrina's devastation along the Gulf Coast, Americans should be united in providing relief, resources and support to all in need."

But as the original poster pointed out, now is a great time for the Bush administration to reveal their plan.

There is no enemy that requires us to hide the plan.

If the plan is inadequate, then we need to replace it with an adequate plan as quickly as possible, and to replace the bunglers who left us in this mess. That last isn't really the politics of blame, it's the politics of relief. Never mind about *blaming* the ones who have failed us. Just replace them as quickly as possible with somebody who can get the job done. Blame is irrelevant so long as they are no longer endangering us.

Here's the New Orleans reconstruction plan which can win overwhelming support in Congress and from the Administration.

1.  Authorize several billion dollars for construction of flood control projects, pumping stations, and emergency generating capacity.

2.  Designate all low-lying areas in the city as flood-prone zones.

3.  Bulldoze all buildings in such low-lying flood-prone zones and convert the reclaimed land into parks.

4.  Wait a respectable amount of time.

5.  Redesignate the parks (flood zones) as restricted building zones for high-rise hotels and office buildings using special construction and with special provisions for McMansions.

6.  Provide low-cost loans and subsidized flood insurance and perhaps, federal income tax incentives to the owners of the new construction.

There it is. Standard Operating Procedure. 

What about the old, the young, and the poor?

Ah, yes. Those people. They would be the people whose homes get bulldozed and converted into "parks," bordered by glitzy hotels and McMansions. Standard operating procedure.

They'll be "evacuated."

We have politicians. They play at politics.
 
Most have never been in the military or other organization where teamwork, a goal and real objective planning are a necessity.
 
They know nothing of the pressing need to cover the back of the guy in the foxhole next to him.
 
The political is what they understand and all else simply doesn't register. Only their own narrow political agenda is of consequence.
 
Why do you think people with real knowledge and real experience are always at odds with these guys? Why are these experienced people routinely fired or demoted? It's because the politicians can't stand having their ineptitude exposed. Their egos don't permit even the simplest disagreement from someone not their power peer.
 
Washington had screwed the pooch on this starting back when they didn't fund repairs to fix the system of levees protecting New Orleans.
 
This disaster was an absolute certainty with only time as the unknown variable. Leaving the levees inadequate to the threat was a political decision.

9/11 happened even though the threat was well known. The failure to provide adequate aviation security was a political one.

Iraq was also a political decision and it has cost American lives and fortune.
 
How many more Americans will this corrupt and incompetent administration kill?


thepeoplechoose

It is so upsetting to watch greedy White Republican men talk calmly on t.v. about how everything is going to be fine, while on the split screen you see poor black children going without food and water for days--being left like animals in horrible conditions.


It is hard not to think that the prioritization going on in the Bush White House doesn't involve some form of subtle racism.  I can't imagine that many wealthy white people would have been left without food and water for so long.


These people working for Bush see a few angry black people on t.v., and shut the rescue operations down until they can bring in the National Guard.  Rather than send in water and food--which would end most of the looting and calm everyone down--they are doing almost nothing until they send in a lot of troops with guns.  If I were there and saw transport after transport coming in, and almost none of them bothering to bring food and water while I starved to death, it would make me furious.


Why does it seem that white people are getting more help than blacks, and rich people more help than poor?


I am not black, and it is impossible to watch the news coverage without thinking about the racism of those in the Bush administration making decisions.


Why did the only naval ship operating in the area--providing helicopter rescue service, leave New Orleans to go to Missippi?  They left helping lots and lots of poor African Americans, and went to Missippi to help the White Republican Governor rescue a smaller and harder to find number of what I can only guess would be wealthy white beach home-owning landowners.  


Why were no buses provided to evacuate the poor, who could not afford to leave, before the storm began?  Instead you have Bush reps on t.v. saying things like "I will not pass judgment on those who did not heed the call to leave"--which is basically saying these people deserve what they are getting.


Why were funds cut by the Bush Administration to protect the parts of the city where so many poor black people lived?

2.  Designate all low-lying areas in the city as flood-prone zones.


I'm afraid that would be ALL of New Orleans and it's contiguous suburbs.  Most of Kenner and Metairie (Jefferson Parish) were reclaimed swamp -- now reclaimed BY the swamp.  Orleans Parish is almost entirely below sea level.  'Flood prone' is the rule -- not the exception in N.O.

 

This evening, an NBC correspondent burst into tears while describing what he saw on a bench outside the convention center:
two babies dying of dehydration!

To provide for the safety of its citizens ought to be not the second or third or fourth priority of the federal government: It ought to be the FIRST!

There should be hundreds of AF choppers airlifting food, water, and medicine as we speak. There should be thousands of army trucks taking people out. There should be tens of thousands of shelters built by now.

And who came up with this idea of busing the stadium folks to the astrodome?  What kind of sadist is that? A friend who knows about such things told me it would cost 2 million bucks a day to house these people in motels and feed them.

Do the math:  2 million a day for an entire year would cost less than... 5 days of Iraq!

It's not being done because they're poor and black and, let's face it, none of the Bush cronies give a damn about those people.

Well, mark my words: These two black babies dead on a bench will come back to haunt America for many many years to come.

 

That's just it, my friend, now IS the time.  Later is when the news cycle moves to something else.  But, heck, that was a shallow thing of me to say, wasn't it?  Now is the time because now is when people who don't need to suffer are suffering and who don't need to die are dying.  Now is the time because nature didn't offer us any other time.

...I have no experience at all actually implementing a government strategy for dealing with a crisis, or even a situation or even an issue.  Reed Hundt does.  Sure, his experience is in other areas, but he really did deal with the situation, as it is, and offer advice for dealing with things now.  Most of my complaints about what's happened have to do with past decisions like not funding the levy rebuilding and not mobilizing the guard when we knew, for three or four days that a category five hurricane might strike New Orleans.  But Reed Hundt's advice, if taken now, could at least alleviate the situation, if implemented, as I type this.  Since Mr. Hundt's specialty is communications, I have to gather that people who specialize in disaster relief have made similar suggestions.  It's 9:44 pm eastern time on Thursday night, Sept 1st... why has nobody tried what Mr. Hundt suggests?

Re: Why were no buses provided to evacuate the poor, who could not afford to leave, before the storm began?

To be a little fair here, New Orleans had all of about 48 hrs max to prepare (Katrina was originally supposed to hit the Florida panhandle). I don't think that's enough time for the sort of evacuation you suggest. However the possibility of a catstrophic flood has existed in the city for a very long time and there should have been contingency plans in place (and ready to go anytime a hurricane was in the Gulf) for addressing the situation immediately when that flood came.

Re: This evening, an NBC correspondent burst into tears while describing what he saw on a bench outside the convention center: two babies dying of dehydration!

OK, I have to ask here: why didn't the reporters help those children? They could have given them fluids or taken them to safety when they left. If their bosses forbid them to render any assistance then heads need to roll in the upper echelons of the media.

Tonight, as I watched NBC News, I was wondering why all of that money and transportation is being spent sending in endless reporters and cameramen, instead of sending in bottled water, food, etc. It gives me the creeps to watch this being presented as a money earning TV spectacle. Why, for example, does NBC pay to send their news reader there for the Nightly News, instead of using the transport for humanitarian aid? Doesn't that creep anyone else out?

Not really. It's not good to be simplistic about it. They already have vans and camera and reporters. It's not like news organizations stockpile rations to compete with FEMA nor should they have to.

Actually I bet many reporters bring in as much as they can to distribute just on the basic human level. I reporters off camera are pretty shocked by the suffering. Thier job is to provide another vital service which is to inform the public.

Having said that, yes the MSM is bloated, but it's far more bloated at the top than on the investigative, on-the-scene journalist level.

 

Could not agree more.  If we don't practice the politics of blame now -- with all the details -- we loose control of the conversation, and we muss not do that right now. 

The Politics of justified blame right now are the key to getting some justice for the Convention Center and SuperDome folk in the near future.  I am making note of some good politics, and at appears that the Black Ministers meet in Dallas this weekend, with Sharpton having called the meeting -- and he is apparently focused on the people in the Astradome and in San Antonio, while Jackson apparently is positioned to lead a march out of New Orleans. (Will the Red Cross meet his march with tents, food, and all the other necessities?)  The difference between reconstruction on a reasonably forward looking basis, and total destructive anarchy may well be seeded in what Jackson and Sharpton can accomplish this weekend. 

Progressives need to understand the dynamics of all this -- for if Jackson and Sharpton manage to calm the waters but at the same time make demands -- look -- don't quibble. 

The New Orleans Evacuation Plan was a "save the rich, the middle class, and the white folk plan" -- and with about 34% of the city poor, and not car owners, and not credit card holders -- they could not leave.  You got to make Bush responsible for that kind of operational defination of who lives and who dies. 

For me, I like the dog owners who absolutely refuse to leave if they cannot meet the terms of their marriage to their dogs.  The one moment of real anger at the TV I have felt in all this is the footage of Bush Coming off Air Firce One with Barney in his arms, (Why can't the Scotty trot?), and then thinking about the people who have had to leave their equally beloved dogs behind.  He should have had the sense to have had an aid quietly, and off camera, move Barney off the plane.  So Dog Owners of the World Unite -- this guy only cares about HIS dog, and not about your relationship with yours. 



CKR,

Great plans, Reed. This is what the military does. This is what business does. It's even what some parts of the executive branch do. (I've done this sort of planning at a smaller scale for environmental cleanups.)

But it doesn't seem to be what Bush and his people do. We can hope, I guess... 

Actually, this is precisely what Bush's people do to get Republicans elected.  Let me explain.

When American voting districts are redistricted these days, very elaborate computer-aided demographic modeling tools are applied to ensure that Republicans will remain the winning party for decades to come.  It is in this feasibility and planning stage that census data, population modeling, and computer aided demographics create risk averse voting projections that can then be used to cookie cut Congress and the House into exclusive lobbiest casinos where the jackpots are the spoils of the American taxpayer.

Similarly, most large consumer chains also run computer-aided modeling programs that analyze the number of households needing shoes (for example) in a given community. Add the dynamics of that population's buying habits.  If the model spits out a 'bingo' reply a new show store is opened with a risk-averse chance of failing.

Like the Tycoon software games, all the vital metrics are kept up to date to be accurate. 

Over the years I have argued that international charities should establish similar supply-chain dependency initiatives so that the modeling reflected likely needs, likely disease and starvation expectations, sources of relief, and so on.   This might result in rapid response, global charity action centers that, from an interactive model of likely known scenarios, could respond more quickly, more appropriately, and less wastefully to predictable events.

As America devolves under Bush to knee-jerk military responses, I ask myself again today, why (in a country that has a huge unemployed software population like ours) aren't interactive, computer-aided softawre programs managing the responses to these well known likely disaster scenarios. The precision is available, the logistics would be right on, and so forth.

The answer is the poison mentality of conservatism that distrusts government, techmology, science, humanism (and human compassion), and the common good.

We are victimized by the inability to throw the rascals out.   My advice for years has been and continues to be, THROW THE CONSERVATIVE RASCALS OUT before we're all helpless victims.

And, YES, NOW IS THE TIME TO SAY IT. 

Packing the poor into a stadium with no follow-up clue is analogous to the American government issuing blankets infected with smallpox to Indians facing a cold winter during the 1800s.

Maybe some reader can help me (us) about logistics, because I am really missing something here.

Why does it take more than 5 days to evacuate 20,000 people from a stadium?  That's fewer people than left Fenway for the Stones's last concert! And it took them something like half an hour.

Honestly, if someone can explain this to me, please do. Because I simply don't get it. It's not that all roads have been cut off. It's that people don't have cars.   20 people per army truck, that's 1000 trucks.  These assets are not available?? And we're supposed to believe that?

Or is it that there's no place for these people to go? Not enough shelters? Not enough generous people willing to open their houses to strangers in need for a few days?

No way I'll believe that.

OK, I am grasping at straws. I'd like an explanation that doesn't make me want to throw up. 

But right now nausea is the only feeling that makes sense.

 

   As of yesterday there was every indication that the descent into utter chaos could be accelerated into outright anarchy by the emergence of armed civilians, now shooting at medical personnel, National Guard troops, and police officers, hijacking busses, boats, and aid vehicles at gunpoint,  disrupting evacuations, and adding terror to the anguish and despair. The implications of this, as the desperate efforts to literally empty  the city are just that - desperate - seem inconceivably horrifying to me. Troops "locked and loaded"entering an American city gripped by desperation and violence.


And here is the President, speaking from no crafted message, no honed list of talking points, but responding to a humanitarian, economic and civil crisis of terrifying proportion in his own words:


"I think there ought to be zero tolerance of people breaking the law during an emergency such as this -- whether it be looting, or price gouging at the gasoline pump, or taking advantage of charitable giving or insurance fraud," Bush said. "And I've made that clear to our attorney general. The citizens ought to be working together."


Well, thank God he's providing a beacon of resolve to Mr Gonzales.  

"I don't think anyone anticipated the breach of the levees" (President Bush, on ABC News, Sept. 1).

Leave a comment

Advertisement
Please disable your adblocker!
Ads are how we pay the bills!

Subscribe

The Coffee House
TPMCafe's regulars

House Brew
From Your Cafe Editor

Special Guests
Big names and big brains

Special Features
Pressing topics and trends

Table for One
An expert's week-long talk.

All Reader Posts
TPM readers discuss.

Recent Reader Posts

All Reader Posts »



Book Club Calendar


Coming Soon



Nov. 30-Dec. 4



January 12-16



« Book Club ArchiveFull calendar »

Book Club Archive



Masthead

Editor-in-Chief
Josh Marshall

Site Editor
Lila Shapiro

Intern
Kyle Krahel-Frolander



Subscribe to TPMCafe's feed.
Subscribe to TPMCafe's reader blog feed.

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address