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Don't Cry for Me, Venezuela

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Having followed the unfolding coverage of Pat Robertson's call for the assassination of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez for the past three days, I am left with one question: why does Robertson care? That is, why is Venezuela becoming an issue for him -- or for the Christian right?


Is it rooted in a nostalgic and vociferous anti-Communism or anti-Castroism? Is it because Venezuela -- which is 96 percent Catholic -- can become, in Robertson's words "a launching pad for...Muslim extremism all over the continent?" It is because the oil wing of the GOP got to Robertson ("this is a dangerous enemy to our south, controlling a huge pool of oil, that could hurt us very badly")?


Or is it simply because Pat Robertson is totally insane?


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Well, insane is certainly the correct answer, although that doesn't mean other explanations are not also true.


Seems to me that the right wing of the GOP -- sorry, was that redundant? -- always has to have a bogeyman out there to vilify and thereby unite against.  Now that Saddam Hussein can no longer serve that purpose (and Osama has been forgotten for some reason), I think they're putting out trial balloons for other possibilites.  

Certfiably insane...and driven so by hate.


I think your point about Robertson still living with a "Cold War" mentality is very accurate.  He hates the leftists of Central America because they have always represented "Godless Communists" to him, with Castro at the top of the list.  I think he views any resurgence of leftist regimes in Central or South America as an attack on Christianity.  I am just surprised he didn't go completely over the top and accuse Chavez of being Satan.  It always makes me a bit nauseous trying to figure out what goes through Robertson's mind...

It's alternate reality, different space-time continuum... Robertson's universe is just very different-- And he deals with cognitive dissonance in the usual way (cf. social-psychology classic  'When Prophecy Fails') by proselytizing.

Someone made the point the other day that Robertson has business interests in Bolivia and Chavez may be inspiring his counterparts in Bolivia to make similar populist gains.
Not sure if this is true, but it makes sense, teh good reverend's spiritual and political interests tend to track his monetary ones...

The real question is -- why does the Bush Administration have its BVDs all in a knot over Chavez?   What has he done?   He is hardly a dictator, and the Administration has hardly raised a stir about much more powerful Brazil in the hands of Lula.

    Several hypotheses.   First, Chavez embarassed the Bush Administration because of an exposed failed attempt to oust him by a putsch -- exposed in the sense that the Bush Administration was caught with their pants down.  Then Chavez even magnified the embarassment by winning a recall referendum handily, in an election that was generally recognized as fair.   So he is a POPULAR enemy of Bush which makes him doubly damned.   Popularity can really be a problem from the standpoint of those in power -- it's the main reason that John Lennon was offed.

Second, oil.   What exactly about oil?  Venezuela is a relatively stable source of oil so the oil companies have little reason to get hot and bothered about Chavez.

Third, the danger of the positive example (a central issue in the overall worldview of Chomsky).   There is definitely at least something to this.   Unlike Lula, Chavez is popular and has really delivered on much of his promise of social reform, if only to keep himself in power.   But that's no excuse.   The Sandinistas had to be liquidated from the standpoint of imperialism for the reason that, more than Castro, they posed the danger of a positive, left-leaning, example.

Genuine belief in a security threat.   PULEEEZ.   If they are so worried about Venezuela becoming a base for Islamic extremism in the Western hemisphere (very far fetched) why not Colombia, or some of the really looser controlled countries in the region?  After all, Al Qaeda has been more successful in establishing bases in places like France and Spain, allies of the west, than in South America, let alone Venezuela.   The terrorism rationale is the all-purpose excuse when the real reasons (like an oil grab) won't sell. The issue here is not whether there IS such a security threat, but whether the Administration and its allies really believe the pap being fed out to the public.   I would say it is HIGHLY UNLIKELY not.  Remember Iraq anyone?

   My own guess, and I'd like to hear other theories, is that it is a mix of the first and third reasons.   It is possible that an oil grab underlay the support for the attempt to oust him, making that an indirect factor.   But now it is about the danger of a popular positive example of populism -- not Castroism -- and a nation ready to challenge the international economic order, not to join with Al Qaeda (note how popular the downplaying of Al Qaeda is still on the right, as it is among many ostensible leftists, by the way, and was with the Bush Administration.  But that kind of problem, like a geopolitical/oil grab in Iraq, is the use of terrorism as an excuse to fulfill a wish list.   And the wish list's real  bases aren't pretty. 

     Robertson is just being a yelping-for-kudos hardcop of this agenda, making the Bush Administration seem more reasonable by comparison.  The extremity of his rhetoric, as noted elsewhere, is hardly bizarre for the mainstream RW in US politics. See my comments in response to Josh Marshall, 'Shocked! Shocked!' at http://www.tpmcafe.com/comments/2005/8/25/113353/141/3#3

At any rate, that's my take on Venezuela.   I am not a great fan of Chavez, but really, as leaders in Latin America and Africa go, he's considerably better than most, and hardly much of an intrinsic threat to any head OUT of ass realpolitik approach by the US.   But "OUT of ass"  is not, as the popular expression goes, where this Administration's head is at.

I'm glad Ken pointed out the part of Robertson's comments that might actually be the most troubling.  Not to diminish the call for the assasination of Chavez, but for me thats just 'Pat being Pat' (it's a psychotic variation of what we Red Sox fans deal with when Manny Ramirez has a mental lapse - 'Manny being Manny').  Yes, it's highlighted by the fact that it was broadcast to thousands of unquestioning viewers, but like many have said, this will most likely do more to help Hugo than hurt him. 

The most troubling part of Robertson's comments, in my estimation, is his claim that Chavez would turn Venezuela into a "launching pad for Muslim extremism all over the continent."  Obviously, this is a fundamentally flawed misunderstanding of the terrorist threat we truly face and of the reality in Venezuela (as one already pointed out, it is a predominantly Catholic state).  It's a classic attempt to fit a GWOT (or GSAVE) square into the slot of a Cold War circle.  And this, I believe is the real danger of loons of the Robertson mold.  There are MANY people who turn to him for their news.  Who turn to him for the truth.  And he is presenting them with an alternate reality, at least on issues such as these.

Are you saying that John Lennon was assassinated because he was too popular and too powerful?

The reason that the Bush administration is (and for that matter any American administration would be) concerned about Chavez is that he is an illiberal demagogue who happens to be sitting on oil reserves that are arguably even more important strategically to the U.S. than those in the Middle East.

Unlike Lula, Chavez has given no indication that he accepts any element of democracy beyond popular elections (and he only turned to those when his coup attempt failed).  Ir is not an unreasonable expectation that Chavez will attempt to strenghten his position internationally, playing the oil card, in an effort to secure support against the U.S. for a time when his popularity will no longer suffice to win re-election and he will have to resort to other means. 

Should we have supported a coup? Of course not.  Is Pat Robertson a loon? Absolutely.  But if liberals are going to start lionizing Latin American left-wing radicals as somehow worthy alternatives to the corrupt conservative elites or reactionary despots simply because they upset conservatives, than Pat Robertson is not the only one trapped in outdated Cold War thinking.
Re: it's the main reason that John Lennon was offed.
Huh?
Granted I was a mere 13 when this happened, but that’s the first time I’ve ever seen any hint that Jimmy Carter (who was president at the time) or someone in his administration considered a has-been rock star was such a threat to their—what exactly?—that they had to program a psychotic fan to blow him away.
Was this a reject plot for the X Files maybe?

#1 - The Euro

Venezuelan move to replace US$ with the €uro upsetting Washington more than Saddam's €uro conversion last November (link)

Read the PNAC documents.  The hegemon is the dollar. I think a lot of foreign economists, in Venezuela and elsewhere, fear the dollar because of the enormous debt piled against its value, which the Bush Administration hasn't addressed - or rather has addressed militarily instead of economically.

#2 Land reform.

This could be a more important factor, in my opinion.  This year Venezuela has begun to target private land holdings commensurate with the provisions of the Bolivarian constitution.  The move against the red meat baron Lord Vestey's cattle ranch holdings are now being adjudicated in court.

Is it possible that Vestey is conducting a propaganda campaign in support of his legal teams claims in the Venezuelan court?  I can't make the connection, to tell you the truth.  It's just a hunch.  I'm looking at it this way: Vestey is tight with Rupert Murdoch; Murdoch bought Robertson's network a few years back (and uses the profits to buy a defunct oil refinery in CA); Vesty tells Murdoch to upscale the attack on Chavez; Murdoch calls Robertson...

Is that too wild?  I don't know.  These big players are pretty skillful at flying under the radar. But I do remember that the CIA overthrew the Arbenz government in Guatemala after Arbenz revealed that it would begin taxing the latifundos. Coincidentally the Dulles brothers were heavily invested in Sam the Banana Man's United Fruit.

I hate to self-promote (ok, I really don't), but over at my blog I take a stab at some of the questions about Islamic terrorists in Venezuela, basically concluding from the start that it's an issue of Venezuelan government negligence, not active support, and that we should find a way to cooperate to deal with the problem rather than try to destabilize the government.

However, in many ways, it's about the oil (both Republicans and Democrats should care about where our energy comes from, at least until we get smart and start thinking about alternative sources of energy) and partially about the old cold war divide (which is a dumb reason, but plays in the media).

Also, Chavez thrives on conflict in the media with the US, it boosts his poll numbers domestically, and the Republicans are dumb enough to take the bait.

 

I agree that Pat Robertson is primarily nuts (e.g., "You know, I was talking to God last night and he told me blah blah blah"). There's still a number of things to learn about the state of the Republican coalition / ideoliogical universe from the Chavez outburst.

First of all, Pat Robertson can call for the assassination of a foreign leader (obviously a violation of international law , as well as a violation of basic morality) without contradicting any principles fundamental to the contemporary American right.  As pretty much everyone has noted, it SEEMS hypocritical for a supposed moralist to call for someone's murder, public figure or not.  

This seems especially strange, I should note, because social conservatives pride themselves on a williingness to clearly delimit right from wrong, to accept "moral absolutes" instead of "moral relativism".  But in fact, their only source for determining moral truth is historical narrative and the drawing of historical analogies.  In its secular guise, you get gibberish about the parallels between Iraq and postwar Germany or Japan.  In Christian form, you get a self-serving reading of the Bible that places the U.S., and American Christians, at the center of history, in fact, at center stage in the final act of history. 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"This could be ...."

"Is it possible .... I can't make the connection ....  It's just a hunch...."

"Is that too wild?  I don't know."

In other words, you're just speculating and have no idea.  Why didn't you just say that?  "I don't know."  Try it sometime.  It's a very useful phrase.

Well, yes...but how would that have changed the meaning of what I wrote?  If "speculating" satisfies you, I have no problem with that.

I have no way of knowing for sure, but Vestey may have influenced Robertson.

I'm speculating, but Vesty may have influenced Robertson.

My guess is that Vesty may have influenced Robertson.

A pretextural argument would be that Vestey may have influenced Robertson.

My hunch is that Vestey may have influenced Robertson.

I wouldn't be surprised if Vestey had influenced Robertson.

Yadda yadda....ain't English great? 

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