Faster Than You Think

I liked Daniel Gross's explanation of why network newscasts aren't dead yet, but like many a counterintuitive arguer, he goes a bit too far:

The fragmentation also works in favor of another declining medium consumed primarily by old people: newspapers. If you're a Washington-area sporting-goods chain and you want several hundred thousand people to learn about a sale, the Washington Post (published by Slate's parent company) is the only vehicle that can guarantee delivery. Yes, newspaper-ad sales are drifting. But they're still significant. As the Washington Post Co.'s most recent earnings release shows, ad revenues at the Post fell 2 percent in the second quarter, while revenues at the online units, of which Slate is now a part, grew 21 percent. But look at the overall numbers. Print-ad revenues were $146.4 million, while online revenues were $18.7 million. It will take many more years of 2 percent declines for newspaper advertising and 20 percent growth in online advertising before the newspaper business model becomes seriously endangered.

By my calculations, if print revenue declines two percent a year every year from a base of $146.4 million and online revenue grows 20 percent a year from a base of $18.7 million, then in 2016 online will be earning $138.94
million while print will be earning just $117.23 -- and 2016 isn't really all that far off. On top of which, the costs involved in running a print publication (paper, ink, etc.) are way higher than for online. On the other hand, it's hard to imagine that online ad revenues will really continue growing at such a rapid clip indefinitely, so the point is a bit moot.


Comments (6)

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Hooray for proper math!  Your calculations are correct.  And, of course, it does seem unlikely that on-line ad revenues will continue to grow by 20% each year for the next 11 years.

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All three posts today are quite good, especially the morality of strategic bombing one.

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And Matt's spelling has been spectacularly correct today, too.  Big ups!

avatar This statement of Gross's is pretty meaningless:

If you're a Washington-area sporting-goods chain and you want several hundred thousand people to learn about a sale, the Washington Post (published by Slate's parent company) is the only vehicle that can guarantee delivery.

I guess he's carefully choosing his words, by referring to the Post as a "vehicle". Presumably no other single outlet can match their numbers. But one strongly suspects a media buyer would find, say, a radio buy to be a very tempting alternative to print. It's just that the dollars would likely be spread over several different stations (and not spent on a single "vehicle" like the Post). And if DC's anything like the rest of the country, print's share of ad dollars has been in decline for many (like, 80) years. That's not what you would expect from an effective "deliverer" of customers.
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Matt, Baby, I love you, but doesn't your conclusion make your whole column "a bit moot."

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Your 2016 figure of <span class="Apple-style-span">$117.23 is in millions of dollars, right.  Because millions is the correct unit...</span&gt

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