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Niger Forgeries Never Investigated

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Some thoughts on why the US government has never tried to get to the bottom of the mystery of the Niger forgeries.


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My Magic 8-Ball sez: "Signs point to Yes".  You know, the obvious.

 What makes Vincent Cannistraro confident enough to state someone close to Freeden?  If that is true, then the Gov't would naturally want to repress inquirey.  

 

Could it be because they did not impact the opinion of the CIA as to the attempt to purchase uranium in Africa by Iraq?  The intelligence supporting CIA's opinion was independent and prior to the production of the forged documents. 

If "X" unrelated to "Y" provides the basis of an opinion and "Y" turns out to be forged, the forged "Y" does not detract from the validity of the opinion based on "X."  

How would it advance the ball to find who or under what circumstances the forgeries were made?  We already know that the Iraqi ambassador's meetings with Niger's former prime minister underlay the CIA's conclusion that Iraq sought to purchase uranium in Niger.  This had nothing to do with the forged documents.  In fact, even Joseph Wilson confirmed the meeting.

The obsession over the forged documents merely constitutes what is technically known as a "red herring."  The real issue relates to the Iraqi ambassador's attempt to "expand commercial relations" with Niger and Iraqi attempts to purchase uranium in Congo and Somalia.  Those issues are unaffected by the forged documents.

Cheers.

So who has the actual forgeries and who has had the opportunity to see them?  Can Senator Rockefeller subpoena the forgery evidence for the hearings Chairman Roberts plans to hold?  For that matter, what scenarios can we envision so that the Democrats can hijack the hearings to foil the nefarious purposes of the Chairman?

I guess investigating the Niger forgeries will probably lead in inconvenient directions.  Seems like the FBI's approach here is not unlike Pat Roberts' unwillingness to investigate misuse of intelligence.  And like the DOD not investigating up the chain of command as well as down vis a vis torture.  You get the feeling that they're all assiduously avoiding examining the actions of certain people.


Anytime anyone gets anywhere close to investigating the misuse of intelligence, they avert their eyes.  Gives me the willies sometimes.  Pat Roberts went so far as to say that he saw no reason to investigate the alleged misuse of intelligence since there was nothing to it.  How can you argue with such tight logic?  Jay Rockefeller didn't have much to say in response -- he just sat there and looked kind of ill.


It leaves me with one thought -- Democrats need subpoena power.  As far as I know, there's only one way to get that power.  If we don't do really, really well in 06, I doubt we'll ever know the truth behind the Niger forgeries or  many other little mysteries.  I think there's a better than even chance that the Rove/Plame mess will also hit a impenetrable wall -- behind which, no doubt, will be the 'undisclosed location.'

Josh-

Something smells incredibly fishy.


Glad you're continuing to follow this and I expect it will pay off, especially due to the Plame scandal and public sentiment shifting.

After all, it's absurd that such an important forgery, which was circulated at the highest levels of government and which made it into a SOTU speech, would go uninvestigated once proven to be a fraud. Totally ridiculous.

Any possible to imagine creator of the forgery must be a huge embarrassment to this admin, and likely indicates a national security failure of truly enormous proportions.

Q: Why such an embarrassment and national security failure?

A: There are basically 3 categories of who could have made the forgeries:

1) A U.S. domestic government or private organization creating and planting a hoax to further an agenda, and successfully manipulating the American government, military, and public.

2) A foreign government or private organization creating and planting a hoax to further an agenda, and successfully manipulating the American government, military, and public.

3) A Joe Schmoe somewhere in the world creating and planting a hoax to further an agenda, and successfully manipulating the American government, military, and public.

All bad.

All agreed except you're forgetting the press and those of us who still live in the reality based community still have a bit of clout.

Understand that the pendulum will swing back.

If it didn't competitor nations will beat the US economically as educated liberal people choose to train, work, live and contribute there instead of here.

Germany used to be the height of culture and power, then it’s culture went nationalistic reactionary and quickly all the educated people fled. Much the same happened with the Soviet Union. It’s happened countless times in history and can happen even easier now due to capital movement, workforce mobility, and nuclear arms as the great equalizer.

History is lacking nations which were for their times especially religiously fundamentalist or conservative, and were also successful and innovative.

For example the Bush base preaching creationism is a cultural suicide of historical proportion. May as well preach mandatory lobotomy for all the good it will do US competitiveness. That sort of belief guarantees a spot at the bottom of the food chain, while also being a luxury of ignorance, an oxymoron in the modern world.

The parts of the country going fundie already qualify as "flyover" territory and are below par on international competitiveness.

Take Texas for example. Austin, hub of innovation, very "blue" while Houston is more "red" and is largely about finite resource extraction, a dead end. Toyota just passed over Southern bids including subsidy for a new plant, choosing Canada for it’s better educated work force and more efficient health care system. This when Toyota is the #1 seller in America now, and will remain so because they make better cars.

There are countless examples.

Ultimately if there aren’t large numbers of educated, secular, scientific minded, and empowered “blue” people, the de Lays and Bush of the world have nothing to steal. Thier sort of reactionary conservatism is basically a proven route to evolutionary dead ends.

That’s the ultimate reality.

Neoboho:

That's Ledeen ... Michael Ledeen

And why would Vincent Cannistraro be so confident that it's someone close to Ledeen?

Well -- It could have something to do with the multiple trips taken by Ledeen to Rome and Europe with Defense officials Harold Rhodes and Larry Franklin (Franklin's been recently indicted) to meet up with a well known Iran-Contra Iranian arms dealer and Mossad double agent named Ghorbanifar over some info about the Iran/Iraq uranium business back in 2001.

Oh! And one more little piece of info - Ledeen was hired on contract by Doug Feith in the Office of Special Programs in Rummy's little circle of spooks and stovepipe business during this time. Pretty busy for a guy from the American Enterprise Institute.... Eh?

But it's all just speculation. Kinda like when you speculate the dog's taken a dump somewhere in the house cuz it smells shitty...

For a running tally that is a lot more indepth than my Cliff Notes - run over to daily kos where a person name Pen has a much more indepth read on the intertwined nature of this whole sordid affair.

 http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/7/22/7563/12283

Hope that helped.

erasmus wrote:

I guess investigating the Niger forgeries will probably lead in inconvenient directions.

erasmus also wrote:

Democrats need subpoena power.

I really don't think there is anything more to it.  Why in the world would anyone expect a corrupt regime to investigate its own misdeeds?  Aren't we long past the point of no return when it comes to honesty and decency?  It strikes me that current American politics is a game of solitaire...

Why did the US government not try to get to the bottom of the Niger forgeries?  Because the investigation might implicate more people then the Plame investigation.  If investigated the forgeries would get to the heart of the disinformation campaign (aka "all the lies") by the Bush administration to justify the War in Iraq.  Whoever orchestrated the subterfuge used people of such dubious credibility that their testimony can be very easily dismissed as unreliable.  They are trying to impeach Ambassador Wilson's credibility, and he has immense credibility.  Sadly they will have no problems destroying whoever steps up to testify, or is under subpoena, in an investigation about the forgeries.

The world is full of countries that got run into the ground by greedy incompetent despots.

People assume it can't happen in the US because its economy is so huge.  But at the present rate, the US economy will be gutted by the end of the decade.  The expenditure on the Iraq debacle only accelerates the decline. Our children and grandchildren will only look forward to declining living standards, crumbling infrastructure, ....

For a historical analogy, think of the Byzantine emperor Justinian, who hollowed out the Byzantine empire with an ill-fated war to reunite the eastern and western ends of the Roman empire. 

I will agree that the forged documents were always a dubious component of the pre-war assumption that Iraq was likely seeking nuclear materials from Africa.
But what's the basis of your assertion that, prior to the surfacing of the forged documents, the CIA had already specifically concluded that Ambassador al-Zahawie's meetings in Niger were an effort to purchase uranium? If there is anything on the record indicating that to be the case, perhaps you could point me to it.

If that is indeed the case, I'm not sure how it is the CIA remained so non-committal about the whole question, given their insistence that the reference be pulled from the President's Cincinnati speech, and Tenet's eventual apology for the reference making it into the SOTU.

In this respect, finding the original source of the documents would, perhaps, illuminate just how it is they were ultimately used politically to give the appearance that the
Intelligence community had moved off the fence on this issue when it had not.

I don't think that's a red herring at all.

JP and Libertine are right (Comments #8 and 9 for those keeping track at home), the question of "why" is rhetorical.  It's like asking "why wouldn't a corporate embezzler want embezzlement to be investigated?"  What galls me is that the MSM sees all of it, every bit of it, yet sits on its collective backside acting like the necessary filter for all things too terrible to contemplate, in their humble opinion.  Well, 1800 dead Americans and 25,000 dead Iraqis is terrible to contemplate.  An entire nation plunged into chaos is terrible to contemplate.  A perpetual Iraqi College of Terrorist Knowledge is terrible to contemplate.  All of the above spoonfed to the American public sprinkled with sweet lies is terrible to contemplate as well but there you have it.

What Mr El Banat (hi Michael!) is saying is, do not look behind that curtain!

This all sounds very logical, except...

The fact that these two had a meeting might raise suspicions, but not conclusions.  Could you imagine Bush's State of the Union mentioning that these two guys got together for a meeting (for all we know they are both stamp collectors)? 

No.  Something like this raises a suspicion that then gets investigated.  And here we have a split.  Cheney's intell people are pushing these forgeries, while the CIA sends Wilson to Africa. Some of this might reflect an underground bureaucratic struggle, but that only increases the importance of finding out where the forgeries originated.  Even if Wilson found things favorable to Bush's case, the forgeries would still be important.  Intelligence is not  black&white.  All the evidence matters, and this is the ultimate point here.
dc

<span class="Apple-style-span">[[</span&gt<span class="Apple-style-span">For example the Bush base preaching creationism is a cultural suicide of historical proportion. May as well preach mandatory lobotomy for all the good it will do US competitiveness. That sort of belief guarantees a spot at the bottom of the food chain, while also being a luxury of ignorance, an oxymoron in the modern world.]]</span&gt<span class="Apple-style-span">Powerful statement. Most unfortunately prescient.</span&gt

We understand why the Republicans in Congress have been so silent on this issue, but why have the Democrats remained so silent?

The curtain, in this case, being an all-too-convincing counterfeit of an American flag....

Why would someone investigate a dodgy document if they knew it would lead to themself?

I guess to answer that question, you'd have to ask yourself: who would stand to benefit from the forgeries?

The answer's pretty obvious. 

It's a very simple question:  Who and why did they forge the Niger documents?


Does anyone think that the Fitzgerald investigation will bring an answer?  


I like the other Helen Thomas question, it's also simple:  Why is the president waiting for the investigation, why does he not bring Karl in and ask him?    (I guess you don't do that with your brain)


The problem with this whole thing is that it's so complicated that most Americans' will just avoid it cause they will not take time to understand it.  That is why I like the simple questions like who forged those documents?  


Apparently they had obvious mistakes:  Dates of the month and dates did not match, wrong French spelling, signed by the official that had the job ten years before.  


Sounds like Rove to me.  

The first answer is obvious. The Bush administration had what it needed to justify the Iraq Wr if the papers had not been forgeries. However, there are other direct beneficiaries, namely Ahmed Chalabi and the IRC.

As I recall, the forgery was of laughably poor quality, supposedly with the signature of a long-dead official.  This, it would seem, lends it an element of plausible deniability, where an outfit within our government could argue the "bad apple overseas because our forgery would have been better" defense.  As for a foreign government planting it, this seems unlikely without WH/OSP  involvement.  A "Joe Schmoe somewhere in the world" would most likely be Chalabi, also with WH/OSP involvement.  I think the FBI attitude is because all forgery roads lead to the WH.  It would interesting to see if Rocco Martino could be asked to testify in front of the GJ, and if copies of the forgery could be examined by the Fitz team.

Christ, I don't know where "Freeden" came from, honestly.  I would have misspelled it "Leeden" for sure.  And thanks for the background.

But typos notwithstanding, the question was "why the government would repress the investigation?" 

And my theory is to protect itself. 

Your link, of course, is appreciated.  What's not explained, in my opinion, is how these guys would do such a poor job with the forgeries.  I mean, would an Italian neofascist network with connections to government be without the resources to create "credible" forgeries?  If Hersh was wrong, and it wasn't some sort of a "sting," I would speculate that the forgeries were the creation of an isolated individual or two who had little or no experience with forgeries.

 

Nick, I think there's a fourth possibility.

Someone aware of the opportunity to make a buck.  That person would have known that there was a standing market for anti-Iraq "evidence."

The Report of the bipartisan Senate Select Committee on Intelligence discussed a CIA report of March 8, 2002, based on an interview with Joe Wilson following his trip to Niger.  The report found that "former Nigerien Prime Minister Ibrahim Mayaki was unaware of any contracts that had been signed between Niger and any rogue states for the sale of yellowcake while he was Prime Minister (1997-1999) or Foreign Minister (1996-1997) ... however, that in June 1999, [redacted] businessman, approached him and insisted that Mayaki meet with an Iraqi delegation to discuss 'expanding commercial' relations between Niger and Iraq.  The intelligence report said that Mayaki interpreted 'expanding commercial relations' to mean that the delegation wanted to discuss uranium yellowcake sales." (Report, p. 43)

The Nigerien Prime Minister understood the Iraqis to be trying to buy uranium.  Joe Wilson confirmed the meeting and discussion took place.  Niger exports uranium, livestock, cowpeas and onions. (CIA World Factbook)  Perhaps some may think that a high level Iraqi delegation met with the Prime Minister of Niger to talk about importing onions.  Neither the Prime Minister nor the CIA did. 

The Senate Report also states, "CIA, DIA and DOE analysts all said that at the time the NIE was written, they agreed with the NIE assessment that Iraq was attempting to procure uranium from Africa." (Report, p. 52)  The NIE was written in September 2002.  Only the State Department INR dissented.

The Senate Report indicates that the US Embassy in Rome received copies of the forged documents on October 9, 2002. (Report, p. 52)  This was well after and did not impact CIA assessments made March 8, 2002 and September 2002.  Those assessments were not based on the forged documents.

Cheers.

Actually, No.  this has been debunked too.  See the series now at The Left Coaster.  The ambassador was trying to set up some meetings of Africans to Iraq as Khadaffi had done to try to undemine the sanctions at the UN.  There is no truth whatsoever to the Niger uranium story. 

So, the US president depended on the speculating ability of the Nigerien Prime Minister to take this country to war against Iraq. It had to be speculation, since the PM never heard anything about uranium. And, since he never heard anything about uranium, that means there is no evidence, just some idle speculation. Tell me you have more, Abu Et Banal. Did they didn't consult Nancy Reagan;s astrologer, too?

With benefit of the hindsight, we know that there was no nuclear program, therefore we know that the attempt to "increase commercial ties" was probably unrelated to it -- it is a hard to be related to something not in existence.

 Thus we know that the guesswork of the "Nigerian minister" was wrong.  Was it possible to get the correct conclusion ahead of time -- that it is not a proof but a weak, unreliable indication?  The aswer is an emphatic yes, with Amb. Wilson being an expert who got that conslusion back then.

Mind you, we have a lot of weak unreliable indications that extra-terrestrial aliens are kidnapping our citizens etc.  

This is just a side note.


Very interesting reading regarding Rice.


http://www.egp360.net/midnightride/morris_2005_07_24.shtml


The Source Beyond Rove

Condoleezza Rice at the Center of the Plame Scandal

By Roger Morris for GP360 Online

Date: July 27th, 2005

Here's the actual Section II of the SSCI report on prewar intelligence which was issued July 2004. <a href="http://a257.g.akamaitech.net/7/257/2422/13jul20041400/ www.gpoaccess.gov/serialset/creports/pdf/s108-301/sec2.pdf" target="_blank">Section II: Niger</a>

 Take note that the proof, besides the Former Prime Minister's inference, except on "foreign intelligence." Roberts' committee also admits Amb. Wilson had done CIA work BEFORE this particular mission, but leaves out what it was. The report also confirms that Dick Cheney's office did ask the CIA to investigate the Niger claims.

 

First, I don't see anything in the SSCI report's recounting of Wilson's report of March, or in the conclusions of the NIE of October, to support the assertion you've made that the intelligence community had concluded, prior to the appearance of the Niger documents, that  Iraq was known to be seeking uranium from Africa.   Yes, the indications are  there, but absolutely nothing that anyone, let alone government policy-makers, would interpret as "conclusive:"  


"A foreign government service {Britain?} reported that as of early 2001, Niger planned to send several tons of "pure uranium" (probably yellowcake) to Iraq. As of early 2001, Niger and Iraq reportedly were still working out arrangements for this deal, which could be for up to 500 tons of yellowcake. We do not know the status of this arrangement."


" Reports indicate Iraq also has sought uranium ore from Somalia and possibly the Democratic Republic of the Congo."


Especially in conjunction with the INR caveat:


"Finally, the claims of Iraqi pursuit of natural uranium in Africa are, in INR's assessment, highly dubious."


Additionally, the absence of documentation in the SISMI report conveyed in the fall of 2001 to the CIA raised immediate questions about the validity of the claim; thus one would reasonably expect the level of skepticism to remain an  important part of the discussion throughout 2002.  


But even by then, the transformation of suppositions into conclusions was already taking place in the Vice President's  mind, and in the formulation of the NIE itself as a policy tool. The SSCI Report addresses this very point:


"Conclusion 16. The language in the October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate that "Iraq also began vigorously trying to procure uranium ore and yellowcake" overstated what the Intelligence Community knew about Iraq's possible procurement attempts. [page 75]


Finally, by citing the SSCI report, which not everyone regards as objective at this point,  you seem willing to allow the conclusions drawn after the fact by the SSCI report itself to make the inference that the evidence was, at the time,  more conclusive than it was.


Nor have you addressed the contradiction in why the CIA insisted on removing the reference from the Cincinnati speech and Tenet's subsequent apology for the SOTU "16 words," if the intelligence community had "concluded "by October of 2002 that the African uranium story had veracity.

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