China Policy
Ivo is right that the United States should push China to play by the rules. What do we do, though, if it refuses?
I raise the question because we will face this problem many times over in the years to come: China will act in ways that frustrate what the United States—and the West more broadly—is trying to accomplish. Just this week Beijing welcomed Robert Mugabe, who is known to his fellow Zimbabweans for driving their country’s economy into the ground and crushing his political opponents. Western governments have criticized Mugabe’s misrule. Beijing hailed him for his “brilliant contribution” to international diplomacy.
Mugabe is not the only dubious leader now getting some love from Beijing. China responded to the suppression of Uzbek protesters in May—an act reminiscent of Tiananmen Square—by inking an oil deal with the Uzbekistan government. Beijing’s support for the Sudanese government has at least indirectly emboldened Khartoum to resist pressure to stop the killing in Darfur. U.S. efforts to impose economic sanctions on Burma are destined to fail because China won’t cooperate.
Challenging Beijing on each and every on of these issues is a non-starter. American business interests will cry that it jeopardizes bilateral economic relations. Economists and investment bankers will point out that American homeowners enjoy low-cost loans because Beijing buys bushels of Treasury notes. China hands will warn that tough talk stirs up Chinese nationalism and strengthens the hands of hardliners.But giving China a pass to behave as it wishes is also unsustainable. A lot of well-organized, highly motivated interest groups in the United States have a bone to pick with Beijing. Human rights activists dislike its support for pariah regimes. Environmentalists don’t like its horrific environmental record. Labor groups fear being swamped by Chinese exports. Evangelicals decry the lack of religious freedom. And neoconservatives warn of China’s hegemonic ambitions.
Politics makes for strange bedfellows, so it is not too hard to imagine the formation of a vocal anti-China coalition as we head into the 2008 elections. And it’s certainly not hard to imagine a candidate, either Democrat or Republican, trying to tap that sentiment. After all, Bill Clinton got considerable mileage in 1992 by attacking the “butchers of Beijing.” And as President Clinton discovered, campaign rhetoric is a lousy way to make policy.
Politics makes for strange bedfellows, so it is not too hard to imagine the formation of a vocal anti-China coalition as we head into the 2008 elections. And it’s certainly not hard to imagine a candidate, either Democrat or Republican, trying to tap that sentiment. After all, Bill Clinton got considerable mileage in 1992 by attacking the “butchers of Beijing.” And as President Clinton discovered, campaign rhetoric is a lousy way to make policy.
So I’m left with my original question, what should we do when Beijing thumbs its nose at what the West is trying to accomplish? Perhaps my fellow bloggers can help me figure out an answer.
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Rather than answering your question, I'm going to make it a bit more complicated.
How do we react when China decides some nation has violated some UN rule long enough and poses a threat to its region and the world. What if China takes a "coalition of the willing" in to overthrow the regime and install something new? Let's say that nation is Pakistan or Saudi Arabia or Nigeria, a US ally, a key energy supplier or transporter, but one who is obviously not a democracy or human rights supporter.Another example, let's say some nation (Pakistan again?) supplies the weapons that lead to a terrorist attack in Beijing.
These are more extreme than the examples you're giving, but they are both possible over the next 10-15 years. I don't mean either scenario as a slap at US policy, but as a legitiamte question for a Democratic or Republican administration. I don't have a good answer for how the US would or should respond, but thought I'd throw the question out there.
July 27, 2005 7:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
We could threaten with economic reprisal, after all most of the things we purchase today are made in China so obviously China is doing a huge amount of trading with us. I would think China might think twice if they were threatened with a boycott of Chinese goods. I think that would be a powerful incentive for the Chinese Government. I also think that we are going to have to improve our relations with our allies in order to maintain a peaceful balance of power in the world.
July 27, 2005 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
"the United States should push China to play by the rules"
That is inane. What rules? There are some rough international guidelines, but they are all trumped, in the case of the U.S., by vaguely-defined "U.S. strategic interests", and the ongoing mandate, "don't piss off too many Americans". Likewise, every other major power.
Your list of disreputable foreign leaders Beijing is cozying up to is absurd, particularly so in the case of Uzbekistan. Until very recently, Islam Karimov was a sonofabitch, but he was "our" sonofabitch. Now he's Beijing's sonofabitch.
Exactly what "rule" is being violated here? That our ex-sonsofbitches are off-limits? That the U.S. has exclusive rights to the sonsofbitches franchise?
What the U.S. could do to get China to "play by the rules" would be to exercise some sort of moral leadership, rather than more of the same old "do as I say not as I do".
The Doha round would be a good place to start. It could use some help right now from the rule-based community in "the United States—and the West more broadly".
July 27, 2005 10:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
You raise some very valid points. At the moment we are not adhering to very many rules ourselves. China probably finds our demands that they play by our rules laughable. Do we even know what "the rules" are?
In fact, by behaving the way we have towards Iraq, we have given China a precedent that if you are powerful the rules don't apply.
July 28, 2005 6:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Economic and military pressures on China are nonstarters. Sure, China will micro-float the Yuan to appease us but don't expect anything radical. China -- the ultimate realist -- is fixated on three things: (1) stability; (2) economic growth; (3) Taiwan. Until it gains the self-confidence required of a superpower (which Japan never attained but which China will), it will align all of its policies with these three objectives. (See the lousy deals China willingly swallowed to join the WTO as a sign of things to come.) Down the road, however, together with rising self-confidence, China will play a more complex game. In particular, it will see the need for soft power gamesmanship (something made easier by the US's desertion of the field). Expect a charm offensive from China around the time of the Olympics that tries to sell us on its (enormously attractive) culture and make us forget Tiananmen. At that point, China will be sensitive to outside pressure to play nice.
Of course, if the US tries to contain China in a new cold war, all bets are off. Unfortunately, I suspect this is precisely what the US will try to do. (Current hard-power overtures to India point in that direction.)
July 28, 2005 9:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
China does play by the rules. Its rules. We play by our rules. Too bad they are not always the same rules.
Face it, China will not agree to play by our rules any more than we will agree to play by theirs. The Bush administration had made it abundantly clear that it is bound by no rule or law but its own. See "Iraq."
If you need a quick education, you must go to China. Spend a few weeks in Beijing, for example. Learn a little Mandarin and talk to people you meet on the street or in the park. Talk to shopowners, talk to old people in the park, talk to high school students. You need to know enough just to start the conversation, as many, (except for the old people) but practically all the students, will know enough "yingwen" (english) to continue in that. Read the daily newspaper, even the English language version.
What you find may just amaze you about who these people are, what they think, what they feel about their country and what they want and what they are willing to do to get it, which includes a lot of hard work, a reverence for education and community spirit. You may have seen the future, and it is not us.
July 28, 2005 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
China might think twice if they were threatened with a boycott of Chinese goods.
Yeah we should boycott Chinese goods. That'll do it. All we need to do is buy no clothes, wear no shoes, buy no computers, refuse to furnish our houses, stop buying electronics and of course the kids will get no toys. Hell, even the U.S. Navy is going to get its ships built in China (I am not kidding). Maybe we should get rid of the navy while we're at it.
July 28, 2005 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why can't the US push China on free internet access? We control it. I think that uncensored access to the internet should be added to the list of basic human rights.
July 28, 2005 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fair enough, what do you suggest?
July 28, 2005 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink