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Then they won't mind...

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Pakistan claims al-Qaeda command destroyed
General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's military ruler, claims that the command and control system of al-Qaeda in his country has been destroyed.

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Then they won't mind us checking it out for ourselves? Trust and verify? 


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Musharraf is smarting from the fact the at least two of the English-born Pakistanis involved in the first London attack had made visits to Pakistan shortly before the attack.  The Egypt attacks definitely have a Pakistani component to them also.  It is abundantly clear that Pakistan is a hotbed of extremist Islamics (right behind Saudi Arabia), including Al-Qaeda.  I guess Mr. Musharraf wouldn't mind us checking out those mountains in the west of Pakistan...nawww on second thought, in his mind if Al-Qaeda has been eradicated from Pakistan there would be no reason for us to check.  I think he is taking cues from Bush...don't question me I'm always right.  I didn't know denial was a river in Pakistan also.

"We haven't intercepted a single message from Osama bin Laden in quite a while.

"We therefore conclude that he has no secret channel of communication."

If it turns out totally verified that both London and Egypt were operations born or controlled from Pakistan, I think we also have to assume that al-Qaeda wants the outsiders to put the arm on Musharraf, causing him homeside problems.  They have always wanted to generate the proof that he is the Bush-Blair-Mubarrak poodle dog.  Thus discredited, he might be easier to take down.

What Musharraf obviously needs to do is find the elements in the Army -- and in the ISI that are protecting al-Qaeda, and take them out of circulation.  That's bin-Laden's life line at this point, alsong with the religious parties on which his government depends in NWFP and in Baluchistan.  Bucause these groups are also the leadership of the Proxi militants attacking Kashmer, they have wide approval in Pakistan.  No Pakistani leader beginning with Jinnah has ever tried to tame this faction.  Huge Risk, but it probably is something Musharraf has to consider.  In a Pakistani context it is camparable to asking George Bush to have a little war with Pat Roberts, Dobson, Billy Graham and Jerry Falwell, all at the same time -- and then throw in a little bottle with the Pope at the same time.  It is just not a possibility given the interests of Pakistan, or at least how they describe them, and Musharraf's power center. 

The solution is something so covert and untracable that everyone has a degree of deniability. 

if we go ask the tribes of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, the Tarklanri, Yusufzai, Mohnand, Shinwazi, Mandanr Yusufazu, Khugiani, Jaji, Turi, Afridi, Orakzai, Xainukht, Bangash, Khatak, Muqhil, Mangal, Chakmani, Jadran, Tani, Khostwal, Khel, Wazir, Darwesh, Mahsud, Daur, Bahnuchi, Marwat, Khasor, Bhitanni, Bohaxi, Shirani, Mando-Khel, Musa-Khel, Isot, Jafra, Gadun-Jadun, Utman-Khel, Khatak, Muhannadzai, Gigani, Shilman, Mallagori, Daudzai, Khalil, Bara Mohmand, Chamkanni, Mashwani, etc.

Bin Laden's probably hiding in one of their areas.

But we'd better ask the right tribe (Bloods don't usually know much about what's happening in the Crips' 'hoods).

That's bin-Laden's life line at this point, alsong with the religious parties on which his government depends in NWFP and in Baluchistan.  Bucause these groups are also the leadership of the Proxi militants attacking Kashmer, they have wide approval in Pakistan.

Therein lies the fundamental contradiction on Musharaff's pledge to support the war on terrorism...in the mind of more than a few people in Pakistan, there are bad terrorists and there are good terrorists. Except, of course, they aren't called "good terrorists,"...they're called "freedom fighters," (just like the days in the Reagan administration).

Also, Musharaff's power in Pakistan is derived, in no small part, on his hard-line tough guy sabre-rattling stance with respect to India and Kasmir.  The Council on Foreign Relations notes "Pakistan-watchers say the general was able to seize power because his predecessor backed down in a 1999 showdown over Kashmir."

Again, parallels with Reagan after Carter.

Militants shower rockets on Army installations near Miranshah


http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_26-7-2005_pg7
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Shoot-at-sight orders in Gilgit

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_26-7-2005_pg1
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Some notes on Pakistan's education policy

http://www.dawn.com/2005/07/26/op.htm#1

Actually, I believe the accepted protocol is that they be pardoned and given a complementary estate house.

Then they won't mind us checking it out for ourselves? Trust and verify? 

I know the question is asked semi-facetiously, and I have no greater illusions than anyone else that Musharraf's claims to have eradicated Al Qaeda are anything but empty bluster.

However since Mr Hundt has some rather poor form in the area of promoting an invasion of Pakistan, it is probably worth pointing out that the premise of his piece here has little grounding in logic.

Even if Musharraf was being 100% honest and he really, really had wiped ever single member of Al Qaeda out of the whole region of Pakistan (and 50 miles into Afghanistan for good measure) the domestic objections to him allowing foreign troops to trample around the country would be exactly the same as they are now.

Large swathes of the Pakistani populace object strenuously to the idea of allowing "infidel" troops to invade their country, harass their gatherings and arrest and interrogate "suspicious looking" characters.  Whether or not there is a tiny chance that they might apprehend Osama Bin Laden in the process is really not something that plays much part in the equation.

Would the UK "mind" a squad of Brazilians turning up in London to investigate the recent tube shooting?

Would the US "mind' if the Cubans send some people over to take over investigating Luis Posada?

You know, I think they just might.



 






Well, instead of "invade Pakistan for OBL" it turned out to be  "invade Iraq for nothing".

 

 

True.  But a dispassionate analysis of the respective merits of Mr Hundt's "Pakistan Invasion" plan versus GW's "Iraqi Invasion" would have to include the observation that at least Iraq didn't really have nuclear weapons. 


Wesley Clark made one of the more interesting suggestions regarding this complex of problems.  He suggested that Saudi Arabia, or / and several of the Gulf states probably had the greatest interest in eliminating the al-Qaeda set up in Pakistan, and the support for Jihad extremists that threaten the stability of Pakistan.  At the same time, they are less invested in the specifics of a settlement of Kashmir -- but do have interests in India where they do much business.  (One must always recall that in India, slightly more than 20% of the population is Muslim, and many are linked to the gulf through business relationships.)  Clark's point was that Saudi and Gulf states interests might be a base for both a political-diplomatic approach to the Pakistan conondrum, and their security services might have assets that could identify precisely where bin Laden is at any particular time, and figure how to deliver him up in a way that would be less likely to provoke "the street" if you will.

I don't know if Clark is correct, but at least he seemed to have a creative thought that rested at least in part on comprehending the political context, and working in a covert way with diplomatic processes. 

Former Ambassador Robert Oakley on Pakistan:

WASHINGTON: Robert Oakley, a former US ambassador to Pakistan, told a gathering here on Tuesday that the United States and Pakistan have always seen their relationship as a `marriage of convenience.'


He said except for the Cold War years of CENTO and SEATO, Pakistan and the US were never really allies. Asked if the US now sees Pakistan as an ally, he replied in the negative. He also called Pakistan the "most dangerous state in the world." He was of the view that the US does not view Pakistan as a "fundamental ally." He also said that it was not the ISI so much as the civilian leadership, in particular Gen Naseerullah Babar during Benazir Bhutto's time in office, that had built up the Taliban. Gen Babar's support for the Taliban was situated in the Pushtun factor.

Well, the point of the war in Iraq was supposed to be to secure Iraq's nuclear weapons, so the Pakistan invasion plan wins hands down; its objectives - to capture terrorists, secure nukes and keep nukes out of the hands of terrorists - would be well-founded.

That would make a degree of sense if were back in 2003 trying to pick which illegal war we would embark on.

However we are now in 2005 already embarked on one in Iraq.  It's not going so well.

Which is why the apparent argument by Mr Hundt that the US should further extend itself and further inflame Muslim and world opinion by essentially opening a new front in Pakistan is so misguided.

(Also of course the difference between Iraq's mythical nukes and Pakistan's real ones is that there is no doubt Pakistan's are actually useable)

For clarity, are you in agreement with Mr Hundt that an imminent invasion of Pakistan is a good idea?

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