Thinking the Unthinkable: Competing for Legitimacy in the Eyes of Aggrieved People
I was intrigued then by bin Laden’s stated motivations: removing the U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia from Muslim holy lands. On a similar but more macro front, I was personally interested in local reactions to long-term U.S. base deployments around the world. I was researching to what degree such bases could be destabilizing -- rather than stabilizing -- particularly in Saudi Arabia; Okinawa, Japan; and South Korea.
Without going into great detail, what had sprung up in Japan, triggered by the September 1995 rape of a 12-year old girl by three American military enlisted men, was the largest civil protests against American military presence on Japan's islands since 1960. Okinawa, Japan hosts roughly 80% of U.S. troop deployments on Japan and at the same time is culturally and linguistically distinct from the main Japanese islands and is the poorest prefecture of all Japanese prefectures.
America faked its way through a series of concessions to the Okinawa islanders, promising much but delivering little. And what interested me at the time was what it would take inside a dependable ally like Japan for anti-American terrorist group to emerge. It became easier and easier to imagine at that time a group of a dozen or more individuals who might begin kidnapping the dependents of American military staff, or lobbing molotov cocktails at U.S. military sites, and the like.
Although the likelihood of a new Japan-based terror organization directed against U.S. military installations and personnel is unlikely, it's possible. And to anticipate future scenarios, thinking the unthinkable, particularly given America's inattention to the international environments -- particularly local circumstances -- in which it operates, could be very important.
There obviously has not (yet) developed a violent-prone protest movement in Okinawa, but long-time Japan hands recognized that the environment that was evolving was such where bad things could develop, and organized threats to American interests could take root because of our neglect of legitimate grievances felt by Okinawans and the heavy burden of hosting U.S. military forces there.
This is a long preamble to some controversial but important thinking that needs to be done regarding the recent London terrorist attacks. Reed, Ivo, and others are focused -- as perhaps many should be -- on the undone business of finding and crushing Al Qaeda.
However, as Peter Bergen and others have suggested, there is probably no central head to Al Qaeda any longer and what has emerged are self-inspired, wannabe Al Qaeda groups that can be even more dangerous than a sprawling entity commanded by a central apparatus.
The macro has become micro -- and as long as the conditions exist that help legitimate the actions of these terrorists in the eyes of many global citizens -- then we will be facing quite a long line of such horrific incidents in the future.
Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote a brave piece a while back making the point that behind the vast majority of terrorist incidents were kernels of legitimate grievances. He wrote:
The public has been told repeatedly that terrorism is "evil," which it undoubtedly is, and that "evildoers" are responsible for it, which doubtless they are. But beyond these justifiable condemnations, there is a historical void. It is as if terrorism is suspended in outer space as an abstract phenomenon, with ruthless terrorists acting under some Satanic inspiration unrelated to any specific motivation.Brzezinski is quick to make the point that this in no way legitimates the terrorist's actions, but he does place what the terrorist perpetrators do in an important political context. He recognizes that terrorists are not in a vacuum but rather are playing to an audience and competing for legitimacy against America, or the West, in the eyes of a disaffected global public.
President Bush has wisely eschewed identifying terrorism with Islam as a whole and been careful to stress that Islam as such is not at fault. But some supporters of the administration have been less careful about such distinctions, arguing that Islamic culture in general is so hostile to the West, and especially to democracy, that it has created a fertile soil for terrorist hatred of America.
Missing from much of the public debate is discussion of the simple fact that lurking behind every terroristic act is a specific political antecedent. That does not justify either the perpetrator or his political cause. Nonetheless, the fact is that almost all terrorist activity originates from some political conflict and is sustained by it as well. That is true of the Irish Republican Army in Northern Ireland, the Basques in Spain, the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, the Muslims in Kashmir and so forth.
I do feel that we need to continue military and police means to shut down Al Qaeda, bin Laden, Zawahiri, and like-minded terror cells in our countries. However, the discussion that we should also be having is what are we collectively doing to wrestle away any sense of legitimacy that these terrorists are playing for. We assume that because innocent people have died in the bombings that there is nothing legitimate about their deeds. I think that such terrorism is horrific and is a crime against humanity, but that doesn't change the fact that terrorism is a political act that requires a political response.
Many in the world see these perpetrators as fighters for a new justice, and we must alter the conditions of what is alienating so many in the world so that we are seen as the champions fighing for justice and fairness in the world -- and not muderous, well-organized gangs of terrorists.
This is an enormous problem. And in our rush to blast what the terrorists are doing, an outrage which I share, we have at the same time made “illegitimate” genuine consideration of the grievances that rest at the foundation of what these terrorists have done.


Great points. Very reality-based.
Of course, Karl Rove and the rest of the Republicans would dismiss this "therapy for terrorists."
For more detail about the mindset we're up against, please see my TPMcafe blog entry from yesterday (which, apparently, no one saw...sniff...sniff). The people willing to blow themselves up are smart, educated, financially stable, and come from good families -- something puts them over the edge. We need to understand what this is.
You're correct -- terrorism is a political act. If it wasn't, bin Laden & Co. would not be releasing videos.
Hearts and minds will win this fight, not bombs.
July 13, 2005 4:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Many in the world see these perpetrators as fighters for a new justice, and we must alter the conditions of what is alienating so many in the world so that we are seen as the champions fighing for justice and fairness in the world -- and not muderous, well-organized gangs of terrorists ...
... The only long-term way to beat back the generation of anti-American, anti-Western terrorists that have evolved is to couple our military and police responses to a much more comprehensive strategy that steals legitimacy from their actions – and that means we must consider many of the grievances that silent majorities in Islamic nations hold.
Very good post Steve. I think you and I are in agreement about the basic problem. So my question is: Where do we begin? What concrete steps can we take to begin the process of winning hearts and minds?
July 13, 2005 4:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
You write
...given America's inattention to the international environments -- particularly local circumstances -- in which it operates...
So, why is it that 'we' do not
..consider the grievances that silent majorities.. hold?
Why do we prefer to label them 'evil' and drop the bombs on them instead?
(cleaned-up post – tweak the code, puleaze, tpmcafe folks)
July 13, 2005 5:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Forget it.
This debate will never happen in this country.
Things were bad enough in the cold war, much worse now when any such fuzzy thinking can be construed as "therapy for terrorists."
Face it: Too many people now have a political interest in a "war on terror" that extends indefinitely into the future. And too many people are willing to believe it's just that the evildoers hate our freedom....
I'm sorry to be so negative, but anyone who thinks there will ever be room for this kind of political debate is living in an alternative universe. Any politician who entertained this discussion would be eaten alive.
Perhaps in fifty years, when people are finally exhausted by the WOT, and if we still have a democracy left in this country by then....
July 13, 2005 5:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
An excellent and informative post.
I wonder whether bin Laden's list of grievances and goals were ever truly honest. I think it quite likely that, having all his goals met, he would draw up a new set and demand redress of those grievances under threat of further terrorism.
July 13, 2005 5:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
One part of why might be how these clearly not downtrodden people are treated in Europe. Many European countries have a twofold problem. They have shrinking populations and growing foreign Islamic residents. In many of these countries these Muslims will never become citizens of these countries no matter how many generations their families live there. This exclusion combine with disrespect leads to a great deal of disaffection and anger. I believe a large number of the 9/11 killers had spent a lot more time in Europe than they had in the United States.
July 13, 2005 5:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
"According to prosecutors, Gill, Harp and Ledet snatched the girl off the street and forced her into a rented van. Harp and Ledet taped shut her eyes and mouth, bound her feet and hands and beat her face and stomach to keep her from struggling, prosecutors said."
Then they raped her on a beach, later dumping her out of the van.
This crime will never be forgotten.
July 13, 2005 6:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Leaping from the Okinawa rape case to Islamic anti-American terrorism is beneath this blog.
The Okinawans are possibly one of the world's most pacifist peoples. Despite the heinous crime committed by the three Marines in 1995, Okinawans responded by a mass rally, not violence.
No "long-time Japan hands" ever thought that Japanese or Okinawans would use violence against the U.S. or U.S. interests--at least none with a shred of respect for the Japanese or the Okinawans. The coy use of the parenthetical "yet" in "There obviously has not (yet) developed a violence prone protest movement in Okinawa" is grotesque. The "Although...unlikely, it's possible" gambit is even worse.
The Okinawans and Japanese have been outraged at the crimes committed by U.S. servicemembers. They have never forgotten, however, that the incidents are crimes...and that crime can can only be met and defeated through reason and patience. Only a tiny group of extreme leftists, disowned by everyone, has ever taken direct action--and then only by firing ineffectual bomblets from toy-like mortars at empty U.S. military parking lots.
Japanese and Okinawans and the men and women of jihad are not comparable. To even hint at a consilience is revolting. No, it is worse than that: it is stupid.
July 13, 2005 6:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
You and I completely disagree. My point is that the U.S. does not assess well the local circumstances in which it operates. It typically makes "deals" to locate bases in some region -- as it did in post-WWII Japan. However, over time the rationale and logic supporting those base arrangements can erode.
You are unfortunately typical of those who suspend their intellectual faculties to try and get at what may be driving this contemporary form of terrorism. I did not say that Okinawans would "likely" resort to terrorism as a response to their view that America is ignoring their plight. I argued that a small band of people could think that the environment was ripe to exploit. If you are unfamiliar with Japanese terrorism -- both on the far right and the far left in Japan, you should read up.
Japan's pacifism has not kept it from some quite strident moments of political violence. But that is not my subject here.
What you deem to be "stupid" thinking is exactly the kind of thinking that serious policy strategists need to be doing to drain the swamp of issues that terrorists exploit to try and legitimate their actions.
Best regards,
Steve Clemons
July 13, 2005 6:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Two things splicer,
1) I do not understand why people are apparently unable to stand back and look at the lenghty rants and statements made by bin Laden and other groups from a 'deconstructionist' angle --
after all, we would never take a 'political' statement at face value, would we? We would never fail to see it in relation to its context, would we?
So why is it that the statements put out by a terrorist group succeed at disorientating us 'Westerners' so much?
2) Following from 1) The grievances Steve refers to are clearly NOT synonymous with the 'grievances' detailed on a terrorist's website or a bin Laden video.
Steve is talking about
the grievances of a silent majority in the Muslim world
He argues that these people have legitimate grievances, and that these grievances ought to be addressed. (I would like to add, that they ought to be addressed by political leaders around the world, not only by (but including) the United States.)
These grievances are NOT identical to the rants of a bin Laden.
And once people get that far, I think tremendous progress would have been made...
July 13, 2005 7:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
..consider the grievances that silent majorities.. hold?
Why do we prefer to label them 'evil' and drop the bombs on them instead?
America is a little too obsessed with its own perfection. The idea that it is fundamentally a utopia is deeply ingrained and from that comes the deluded idea that it can and should export its utopia by any means necessary to others around the globe.
Obvious facts like:
- America is in fact not a utopia
- other countries don't want to emulate it, and may stand to lose as much as they gain by trying
stand in complete contradiction to the national mythology so become uncomfortable truths to be ignored and hopefully forgotten.
July 13, 2005 7:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
I would be careful on this one. There could be another, non-terrorist reason why there might be a desire for the US no longer to have bases in some areas.
sPh
July 13, 2005 7:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
A lot of American foreign policy is political theatre for the Republican core constituency. Calling the terrorists "evil" isn't an anlysis, it's a slogan. It's part of a two-pronged attack against enemies both foreign (Osama) and domestic (liberals and Democrats).
Guantanamo, for example, and everything that has ever happened there (murder, torture, sexual humiliation, etc.), has enormous appeal to the more profane wing of the right -- Limbaugh, LGF, etc. The scandals did Bush good by firming up the base.
When Rove eked out his 51% in 2004, that was an emormous victory in the more important (domestic) prong of the War on Terror. At this point they're probably figuring out a way to ease out of the no-longer-very-important Iraqi part of that war.
Clemons' suggestions, like much of the rest of the talk about the war on terror and foreign policy, would make sense if the Bush administration felt the foreign prong were the more important one. But they don't.
July 13, 2005 8:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
In all of the cases mentioned, whether over here or over there, the truth about history would have to be faced by the peoples concerned. Are we willing to do that here? Are we willing to admit that our "way of life" has been built on the misery of peoples all around the world? Are the Japanese willing to face their recent history? Few Japanese realize that the crimes committed against the Chinese in the name of the Japanese people were possibly even worse than those committed by the Nazis, and certainly their equal? The same can be said about Arabs/Muslims and numerous other national entities. In this kind of nationalistic make-believe world, where myth parades as truth, can we ever resolve the problems? Or, is it power to the strongest, and "right" the prize of the survivors only?
July 13, 2005 8:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is not about legitimacy. People such as Bin Ladin and Bush EXPLOIT people's fears and irrationaly hatred. In the case of the non western world.. they DO have some seriously rpobelms and many of them can be latd at the foot of the west.... and this has been going on for centuries. The oppressed people can't help but see that the west does not care about them, and in many cases is responsible for their suffering and misery.
Along comes some charismatic leader who tells them the problems they face as ALL the cause of the west and the indifels. Things like Iraq and abu griab only re inforce this notion.. bases in Iraw and virtually everywhere. Why does the USA have all these military installations around the world? What are they "protecting"? Commercial interests? the despots who we prop up and who opporess people?
I don't think people around the world see the US presence as helpful to solving their problems. They may see the UN as that possibly... but the US never. We are not helping the people and bring them food and rights... we are using them as cheap labor!... destroying their environments.
If we want to be dismissive and dominate the world ... as the free market capitalist repubs do... we will engage in the endlass wr on terror. it is good for business and the cost of waging war is taxpayer money spent and then earned by US corporations. It is a wealth transfer.
And mostly poor are the ones who blood is spilled. They run off to die to protect america and the american dream and way of life (gluttony) and feel they must kill crazy satanic terrorists who kill us because they hate our movies or music.
The islamists and jihadis are fighting for the same irrational view, but from the other side of the equation. Its assymterical and so we shock and awe and they susicide bomb. It's all violence and all terror... and all the victims are innocents.
July 13, 2005 8:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rove did NOT eke out 51%. Go back and reread the exit polls...
July 13, 2005 8:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have to correct DanielGree: it's not just about citizenship in Europe.
It emerged today that, as suspected on the day by many, the bombers were all British, living in relatively well-off and heavily Muslim areas of the country. England has more or less accepted its new "melting pot" status; e.g. BBC has various black/asian channels, most of the newly-graduated lawyers and economists are of asian origins, etc... and pretty much everyone is fine with it (with a few small exceptions called BNP and Veritas/Kilroy-Silk).
In other countries is a bit different: France and Germany are politically open but culturally closed, Italy the other way round, Spain doesn't have that kind of problems yet, Netherland is currently a bit troubled... but the main issue is not citizenship. More or less every big european country now gives full political and social rights to second-generation migrants.
The main problem over here is disaffection from political institutions and the political process, that is seen as nothing more that televised entertainment (and JFK will be forever damned for that) which is impossible to influence; the Iraq intervention was despised through the entire Europe for the lie that it was, but Blair, Aznar and other leaders imposed their views on the population, and this showed that the political process was completely out of hand. Some irresponsible cleric was allowed to exploit this fact, and here we are. In a way, who brought us London 7/7 is much more like Tim McVeigh than Mohammed Atta.
July 13, 2005 8:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
>>>>America faked its way through a series of concessions to the Okinawa islanders, promising much but delivering little.
---- political terrorism comes from a breakdown in communication between the rulers and the ruled. In political leadership it is crucial at least to listen to the concerns of the ruled. You don't necessarily have to do what everybody wants, but it is important for them to feel they have at least been given space to say what they want.
We the USA have taken on much of the security responsibility for Japan. On some level this is a good deal for both of us. But military bases are places which often swing their wangers around, even in the USA they are notorious for flouting environmental laws. Maybe that's another thing, maybe the fact that we can always fall back on our guns makes it easier to stop listening.
July 13, 2005 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
And please, I listen to (Clinton Admin.) Dennis Ross tell us that the proper response to the London bombing is to bomb Iran. This was the guy who was supposed to bring peace between Israel and the Palestinians??!?! There's an honest broker.
The attitude goes way beyond Bush. You guys will never gain an inch until you admit that Saint Clinton had the same arrogant affliction.
July 13, 2005 9:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Robert Pape's book,"The Logic of Suicide Terrorism", speciifcally ties the grievances to real or perceived occupation by a foreign power of what is perceived as ones homeland. The theory has not received enough discussion, what with everything else going on. There are some good links in a recent Kevin Drum post here</a">http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2005_07/0067
02.php">here</a>, including a link to a book review by Mike Scheuer, author of "Imperial Hubris." It certainly bears out this thesis.
July 13, 2005 9:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Are you saying that he got 52%, or less than 51%?
Once Bush was inaugurated, Rove won and the hard right was in power for four more years. Whether he actually won fairly is irrelevant. In order to win by cheating, he needed a certain number of votes, which he got.
Bush has a substantial body of fanatical supporters, plus another bunch who were willing to give him a chance. Rove succeeded.
July 13, 2005 9:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Steve,
I comepletely agree with you -- if we're serious about undermining support for terrorism, we need to understand the grievances which lead people to buy into terrorist groups' ideologies. That's not "therapy for terrorists" -- it's fighting smart. People often confuse moral arguments about terrorism with arguments about causation -- but arguing that, as a practical matter, A causes B, doesn't mean that B is morally justified by A.
Just as an aside, I wanted to mention an idea I've been thinking about over the last couple of months -- I think there might very well be a niche for some sort of organization similar to the Truman National Security Project -- except promoting a more pragmatic/realist Democratic vision for U.S. foreign policy. I'm aware of such groups as the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy -- but what I have in mind would be partisan -- trying to promote what we see as sensible pragmatic views within the Democratic party.
Anyway, I just wanted to throw the idea out there, and see what you, and other like-minded TPMCafe posters, think of the idea.
July 13, 2005 9:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your lead example, the Okinawa rape, is simply a dud. It led to peaceful demonstrations, prosecution of those responsible, and not to the motivation or support for terrorist acts or actors.
Few of the motivations of terrorist movements (al-Qaeda, Palestinian, ETA, IRA, Chechen) have been directly anti-American, nor have the specific acts motivating their grievances the acts of Americans or the US Government, though many do (some, certainly, rightly) see us on the side of their foes.
Nor have the terrorists been American citizens or residents, nor have they been particularly individually aggrieved by our actions; many have been the beneficiaries of European social welfare schemes.
Finally, it is not all clear what course of prescriptive action you think the US ought take to change the opinions held by the aggrieved people of the world. It appears there are two main courses available. First, to assume we have the capability and wisdom to provide redress for all the world's grievances is beyond hubris; and history would show that patronizing and colonizing has done more to promote than relieve the motivations of terror.
Which leaves a simple PR approach:
* * America - Your Problems Just Aren't Our Fault **
I'm not optimistic on this strategy.
July 13, 2005 9:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
I lived on Okinawa for nearly 12 years, from 1975 to 1987, and I return for visits to friends there on a regular basis. Okinawans and Japanese are very different, and share very little culturally aside from the Japanese language, although Uchina-guchi, the Okinawan dialect, is still preserved in song and spoken by elders.
Okinawans are peaceful. Yes, it's true that Japanese have been violent, both within the mainland country and beyond. Okinawans have not. Never. The yearly protests against the American bases in Okinawa are loud, but peaceful.
During my time there, the protests were mainly concerned with getting back their land, and a return to Okinawan peaceful values. This tiny island is 65 miles in length, and averages 5 miles in width. The northern part of the island is mountainous. The southern part is suitable for farming and economic development. This is where the American bases are located, on land that Okinawans need for farming and for their growing population. American bases occupy about 20% of the island.
70% of mainland Japanese want the bases to remain in Okinawa and want a continued American presence. 70% of Okinawans believe they bear a disproportionate share of the burden of housing American bases as outlined in the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, and think mainland Japan should host some of the bases. Okinawans are frustrated not only with the American government, but with Tokyo as well.
Okinawans are certainly angry over crimes committed by American servicemen. They are also angry over dangers inherent with hosting bases, like plane crashes, and noise associated with planes at the air bases and the fire range practice.
However, to suggest Okinawans would resort to violence if their demands are not met is, in my opinion, simply not tenable. It is not in the nature of Okinawans to be violent. The American bases are a reminder of war and violence which clash with Okinawan culture and values.
And just as a tidbit that may or may not have anything to do with the topic. Okinawans enjoy the longest longevity in the world, with more centarians than any other region, beating even Japan. So, I wonder if, in addition to diet, their tendency to lead peaceful, stress-free lives contributes to this longevity.
July 13, 2005 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
You guys will never gain an inch until you admit that Saint Clinton had the same arrogant affliction.
Wait, I thought Clinton was too weak on terrorism? Now he's the same as Bush?
You right wingers and your stories -- I can't keep track!
July 13, 2005 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that the answer to the Islamist terror problem cannot be found without reference to OBL's six or seven points. But pigs will fly the day this administration even considers this road. They will begin rolling back their tax cuts for the wealthy first.
July 13, 2005 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Few of the motivations of terrorist movements (al-Qaeda, Palestinian, ETA, IRA, Chechen) have been directly anti-American, nor have the specific acts motivating their grievances the acts of Americans or the US Government,
Actually, bin-Laden's made it quite clear his problem is U.S. troops on Muslim soil, and our one-sided support for Israel. And, since Iraq and especially Abu Gharib, Muslims believe the U.S. is at war with Islam.
many have been the beneficiaries of European social welfare schemes.
That's also not accurate. From the 9/11 highjackers to now the London bombers, most of the people willing to blow themselves up for their cause, at least in the U.S. and Europe, are educated, upper or middle class, good jobs, family oriented, etc.
July 13, 2005 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
How stress-free and peaceful do you think the Okinawans would have been over the past five decades if they had not had the protection of American forces to keep China and possibly Korea at arms length? We have no way of knowing, of course, but American troops or Okinawan troops, one or the other, would have been needed. Quite frankly, even with the obvious abuses and errors, I think the American record of handling territory and peoples captured in military conflict is superior to any other I know about in modern history. It's certainly far superior to that of the Japanese!
July 13, 2005 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
As far as I can remember, OBL had the same points during the Clinton administration. Clinton certainly was agreeable to taxing the wealthy and yet I don’t recall him making reference to OBL’s points (maybe I missed something) as a way to solve terrorism. I do remember him lobbing some cruise missiles at him
So how will a new Democratic administration change anything?
July 13, 2005 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for a thoughtful post Steve. I agree. I think central to this line of thinking needs to be a self-imposed mandate that we will never, under any circumstances, negotiate with terrorists. And yes, I know that that line is so trite at this point as to have become the punchline in a movie. But if we want to sell the idea that understanding our enemies' legitimate grievances will have some value in the long run, then we need to be clear that we are not talking about appeasement or sitting at the table with bin Laden.
The IRA has it's Sinn Fein. It's a sickening game they play at pretending not to be a terrorist organization, but an absolute necessity for ending that conflict. Are we currently willing to talk with Islamic versions of Sinn Fein, distasteful as that might be?
Would terrorism stop if we addressed legitimate concerns in the Islamic world? I doubt it, but we would certainly be in a much stronger position to build alliances with moderate factions and isolate terrorists from the support they now receive from Muslims who normally might support a more peaceful form of protest. Ironically, this approach would almost certainly be better for US business interests as well.
July 13, 2005 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
The deployment of Cruise missiles to Europe in the 1980s provides a better example for analyzing the effect of long-term base deployments than does the rape case in Okinawa. This deployment led to large protests across Europe and caused to a significant amount of what we would now call anti-Americanism.
July 13, 2005 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
They kicked me out of the right wing, so now I'm stuck with you guys.
July 13, 2005 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
haha! OK, then, welcome to the club! Were you too reality-based for them?
July 13, 2005 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
cscs -
I agree that bin Laden has framed his attacks against the US on those issues, but note that al Qaeda appears to have broader motivations than rebelling against the US, has operated prior to taking up against the US, and has continued to operate against a much broader range of targets. So I don't see anti-US sentiment as the underlying cause of their existence.
The relatively good socioeconomic conditions of the 9/11 (and apparently 7/7) attackers is consistent with my point. While they may not have had the luck of the draw of, say, Jenna Bush, they have enjoyed some benefits of Western institutions. Which is reason to further doubt a proposal that we ameliorate the world's aggrieved.
July 13, 2005 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some Muslim will always have a perception that Western powers, lead by USA, treat their nations as untermenschen to be subjugated, to secure raw materials, strategic positions and to benefit Israel. In other words, we are out there to screw them and it is only just to screw us back. Let use TASU as an acronym for that perception (they are screwing us).
The question is, how big proportion of their various populations share TASU view. Why does it matter? Because in big majority of cases terrorists work as a group, even McVeigh had his Nicholson. It should be very dangerous to disclose the eagerness to commit terrorist acts even to your friends if those friends abhor the idea. This danger should inhibit the emergence of terrorist groups.
One way to overcome this danger is to make a trek to a "terrorist sanctuary" where you can reliably identify people who think in the same way. In the absence of sanctuaries, it is a matter of density. It could well be the case that organizing a terrorist group is almost impossible if only 1% of potential members would agree with TASU (i.e. would not contact police as the first reaction), but very easy when you have 10%.
Needless to say, the more we behave as if we view Muslim nations as untermenschen that should be subjugated etc. the stronger such a perception is.
As a result of the currect war in Iraq, I suspect that most of the Sunnis in Iraq and a very substancial proportion of those in Saudi Arabia and Syria agree with TASU, and quite a few Shias as well --- including those in Iran.
July 13, 2005 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink